time to post my week 8 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Week One: 22-29 -9.90 units
Week two: 28-26 -0.6 units
Week three: 31-31 -3.1 units
Week four: 27-24 +0.6 units
Week five 38-33 +1.7 units
Week six 39-33 +2.7 units
Week seven 39-32 +3.8 units
Overall 224-208 -4.8 units

One of the neat things about the large number of games played this year, is that you really get to see the advantage the bookie has over the player play out in big numbers. So far this season with posted plays, I am 16 games over .500 and only in one of seven weeks did I lose more games than I won. Yet I am down about five bets. Now week one was obviously a debacle of mammoth proportions but winning ~52% of the bets in a given year is a nice little profit for your bookie. In any event, I have been doing really well on the bigger plays but I don't reflect the size of the play or the juice in my CTG record keeping this year. Slowly been cutting into the deficit and hopefully can do so again this week. Thanks to a fellow CTG member for helping me get down on a few games this week closer to open.

Locked In

Georgia State at Arkansas State (Arkansas State -14, over 55.5) W W 2-0
Stanford at Arizona State (under 58.5) W 3-0

Colorado State at Boise State (Boise State -23.5, over 59) W W 5-0
Air Force at UNLV (Air Force -12) I might go to the game. L 5-1

Northwestern at Rutgers (Rutgers 20) 6-1
Buffalo at Toledo (Over 67) 6-2
Maryland at Iowa (Maryland 13.5, under 52.5) 7-3
Auburn at Ole Miss (Pending, likely passing) 7-3
Tulsa at Arkansas (Under 55.5) 8-3
Illinois at Wisconsin (Under 56.5) 8-4
Oklahoma at TCU (over 60.5) 9-4
Miami Ohio at Army (Miami 10.5, over 46.5) 11-4
Cincinnati at Temple (Under 47) 12-4
Michigan at Michigan State (Michigan -6.5) 13-4
North Carolina at Syracuse (Under 67) 13-5
UVA at Duke (UVA 7.5) 14-5
Bowling Green at Ohio (Ohio -16.5, over 69.5) 15-6
Utah State at Wyoming (Utah State -15, over 52.5) 15-8
FAU at Marshall (FAU -3, Over 58.5) 15-10
Western Michigan at Central Michigan (Western -4 -120) 16-10
Charlotte at MTSU ( Under 52) 17-10
Emu at Ball State (Ball State 3, over 51) 18-11
Minnesota at Nebraska (Nebraska -4) 19-11
Alabama at Tennessee (Alabama -29) 20-11
Penn State at Indiana (Indiana 14, over 60) 22-11
Coastal Carolina at Umass (Umass -3) 22-12
Utep at Louisiana Tech (Utep 24.5 - tailing) 23-12
Akron at Kent State (Kent State 4, over 55) 24-13
SMU at Tulane (SMU 8) 25-13
Colorado at Washington (Washington -15) 25-14
NCSU at Clemson (NCSU 17) 25-15
Wake Forest at FSU (over 60, wake 10.5 2h und 28.5) 26-17
Kansas at Texas Tech (under 61) 26-18
Houston at Navy (Houston -12.5) 27-18
ULL at App State (ULL 24.5 - Largest bet of week) 28-18
California at Oregon State (cal -7) 29-18
Georgia Southern at NMSU ( over 54.5) 30-18
memphis at Missouri (Missouri -7 biggish) 31-18
Uconn at USF (over 65) 32-18 lol
Texas State at ULM (ULM -10.5) 32-19
UCF at ECU (UCF -21 over 65) 33-20
Miss St at LSU (under 44.5) 34-20
UTSA at USM (UTSA 17, over 44) 34-20 w/push
Ohio State at Purdue (Purdue 14 over 65) 36-20
ODU at WKU (Odu 5) 37-20
UNT at UAB (Under 53 Hugish) 38-20
Vandy at UK (Vanderbilt 11.5)39-20
Fresno State at UNM (Fresno st -14, over 55)40-21
Oregon at Washington State (over 66) 40-22
Rice at FIU (Rice 24, over 52.5) 42-22
USC at Utah (USC 7) 42-23
SJSU at SDSU (Pending lean sjsu and over)
Arizona at UCLA (ucla -8) 42-24
Nevada at Hawaii (over 68) 42-25
Week One: 22-29 -9.90 units
Week two: 28-26 -0.6 units
Week three: 31-31 -3.1 units
Week four: 27-24 +0.6 units
Week five 38-33 +1.7 units
Week six 39-33 +2.7 units
Week seven 39-32 +3.8 units
Week eight 42-25 +14.5 units
Overall 266-233 +9.7 units
 
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Maryland 13.5
Michigan -6.5
North Carolina State 17
Nebraska -4
SMU 8
Houston -12.5
ULL 24.5
Missouri -7
MOH 10.5
 
I would be shocked if Michigan was less than a full 7 by kickoff.
I would be VERY shocked if App St was 24 or more by kickoff.
The Terps line is ridiculously high as well.
NcState has a good chance to win outright and they are giving us 17 pts? That will close lower eventually.
And if Missouri closes anything under 10 it will be silly too low.
looks like MOH got crushed but I Can see that creeping either direction from there.
And I HIGHLY doubt that Tulane goes off over a TD fave.

Who knows on Nebraska line ... I just had the game targeted. I maybe should have waited there.

Just saying you might want to attack right now while those kind of numbers are available because, like I said, I doubt they last too long.
 
I don't like the Bulls in this spot but don't be surprised if that game is pick or Buffalo the favorite by kickoff too.
 
I hesitated on MOH and decided to wait to see if it crept back to 11. It went below 10 and I gave up.
 
Georgia State at Arkansas State (Arkansas State -14, over 55.5)
Colorado State at Boise State (Boise State -23.5, over 59)
Air Force at UNLV (Air Force -12)
Buffalo at Toledo (Over 67)
Maryland at Iowa (under 52.5)
Tulsa at Arkansas (Under 62.5)
Oklahoma at TCU (over 60.5)
Miami Ohio at Army (over 46.5)
Cincinnati at Temple (Under 47)
UVA at Duke (UVA 7.5)
Bowling Green at Ohio (Ohio -16.5, over 69.5)
Utah State at Wyoming (Utah State -15, over 52.5)
FAU at Marshall (FAU -3, Over 58.5)
Western Michigan at Central Michigan (Western -4 -120)
Charlotte at MTSU ( Under 52)
Emu at Ball State (Ball State 3, over 51)
Minnesota at Nebraska (Nebraska -4)
Alabama at Tennessee (Alabama -29)
Penn State at Indiana (Indiana 14, over 60)
Utep at Louisiana Tech (Utep 24.5 - tailing)
Akron at Kent State (Kent State 4, over 55)
SMU at Tulane (SMU 8)
NCSU at Clemson (NCSU 17)
Wake Forest at FSU (over 60, wake 10.5)
Kansas at Texas Tech (under 61)
Georgia Southern at NMSU ( over 54.5)
Uconn at USF (over 65)
Texas State at ULM (ULM -10.5)
UCF at ECU (UCF -21 over 65)
Miss St at LSU (under 44.5)
UTSA at USM (UTSA 17, over 44)
Ohio State at Purdue (Purdue 14 over 65)
UNT at UAB (Under 53 Hugish)
Vandy at UK (Vanderbilt 11.5)
Fresno State at UNM (Fresno st -14, over 55)
Oregon at Oregon State (over 66)
Rice at FIU (Rice 24, over 52.5)
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Why Miami OH?
Click to expand...

I just bet variance from my power ratings but they sport a nice little run defense which obviously should match up pretty well with Army. Regular rush defense and option rush defense don't always mean the same thing though. I think it should be a very competitive game and don't see why both teams don't find some success while not necessarily have huge succeess. In other words, I think both teams can hit the twenties in this game. 28-23 Army seems about right.

Just to add a little color to the thinking.... I hadn't capped out the games to fruition yet so a lot of the bets made yesterday were more on the PR side (only a few of them had i handicapped fully ULL, Nebraska, Missouri and Houston). The others are pretty much just based off my PR. Now... like I was saying to add some color ... not all variance is the same. Let's say I handicap a total to 37 and it comes out 42.5. That is a big bet for me at 5.5 pts of variance. But lets say a game is totaled 80 and I had it at 74.5. I still bet it but that isn't the same value and not even closely so. And so when looking at MOH, I made the total 51... when I get variance to my line on what I expect to be a low totaled game, it holds more value to me. Even looking at current numbers .. 7.5 and 46.5 ... the implications is 27-20 roughly. AKA Army TT 27. I hope I am making sense of what I am trying to say here ...
 
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The things I like about NCSU in this game

1. This is the circled game. This is the one they get up for and where you should see their best effort, regardless of whether or not they are capable.
2. They appear to match up good. last year a 27-19 FD edge and a 491 – 415 advantage for NcState. Both teams are a little down from last year but similar.
2016 was the flip of last years game but NCST was still within a hundred yards of Clemson and lost in overtime. And even the 2015 beatdown when it was awesome Watson vs Awful Brissett, they didn’t cover this number.
3. 2015 4.8 ypc allowed, 2016 3.o ypc allowed, and last year 6.4 yards per carry but that doesn’t tell the true story since Clemson broke an 89 yard run. 34 carries for 135 yards on the rest of it. And this year 13th vs run and giving up 3.7 yards per carry. So it would seem to me Lawrence would have to get it done for them
4. Clemson giving up 6.8 yards per pass attempt so far this year. Their defensive pass stats from a yardage perspective are very skewed due to opponent. They played Furman and two fbs option teams. They shut down Wake last week, which I give them some credit for but the two games against Cuse and TAMU they looked vulnerable back there. At a minimum the backdoor could potentially be open for a veteran QB to find more often than some past Clemson teams.
5. Experienced QB vs inexperienced QB
6. NCSU believes they can beat Clemson. They haven’t lost the game before the opening kickoff.
If Lawrence has a big game or the NCSU offensive line simply cannot block (I would tell my kids to hold) then it could get out of hand. But again .. even at 30-7 with half a quarter to go, wouldn’t be a huge underdog to cash the ticket and I don’t think that is what happens.

I think NCST can win. Not sure I have cajones to bet them ML but I think they can.

Clemson should have lost to Syracuse on their homefield and were it not for some suspect officiating they might have lost to Texas A M prior to that. At some point every break doesn’t go Dabo’s way
 
And for the record, my numbers don't support the Arkansas State play .. .that is a lot of gut feeling on my part.
 
AliShaheed said:
I missed the number on mizzou...at what point is it a non-play?
Click to expand...


It is still a really good bet at under 10 and I would lay up to 10.5 even. At 11 this thing would start hitting the area of nah, even though I think they absolutely steamroll them. My actual numbers just wouldn't support it any longer.
 
B.A.R. said:
App St and Laffy back to BOL opener of 26.5

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
B.A.R. said:
App St and Laffy back to BOL opener of 26.5

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

I saw that. Obviously I am adding to my initial investment if it hits 27 which, depending how much I add, would make it my largest bet of the year maybe. I looked at the game immediately after seeing the move. I stand by my bet after looking it over again. The negative is pretty clear ... We have two running teams and only one good running defense (but best RB is out for Appy) .

But some thoughts:

App State has played great defense this year but outside of Penn State (A long time ago), they simply haven't played anyone. Penn State rushed for over 200.
95 rush yards to charlotte (average 141 a game)
34 RY to gardner webb (a team that had 59 yards rushing on 29 carries against ETSU)
83 RY to sbama (Average only 131 a game)
117 RY to Arkansas St (Average 166 a game)
ULL had a very difficult time running on Miss State but managed 200 yards rushing against Alabama, 238 against coastal and over 300 yards rushing in the other three games, opener to Grambling and last two games vs texas state and nmsu. Other than noting the offensive peak, I largely disregarded the incredible performance last weekend. But I don't think it wrong to assume that ULL has a decent amount of success running the ball and I think if push comes to shove that they can complete some passes too.

The obvious problem is what happens if App State scores every time they touch it like last years game. Can ULL score enough? I think there is a decent chance they can hang a 27 spot in this game and at that point you are asking a lot of App State the game after losing their best offensive weapon. They are going to post a big number on ULL in most versions of this game, regardless. But

Already mentioned but i think ULL has played a much better strength of schedule.

And ... one reason the line might be moving up is that if you have backed App state this year, I don't think you have not cashed yet. Meanwhile, if you were betting against them, you haven't cashed. As a buddy told me a couple weeks ago ..."they are starting to make you pay a premium to bet on App State" or something like that. Well, it has gotten worse. My point though, is that the app state nonbelievers might be done not believing and those cashing in on the app state money train may be riding that horse until they get bucked. That could play into the line move along with whatever else has.

In any event, I think this is a really good value and have a lot of confidence in it being a good play. Of course, they could implode and App State is a good club and might just destroy them ... and there are some match up concerns with regard to the corresponding run defenses ... but hey ... it is hard to find the hot girl at the bar at closing time and it is hard to find 26 point dogs without some zits.
 
Ryno14 said:
Could you give thoughts on Houston too when you get a chance? Thanks, VK.
Click to expand...


Sure:

1. Houston plays against the option on the regular now in AAC play with games against Tulane and Navy every. Last year they held tulane and navy to 166 and 217 on the ground.
2. Strength of the houston defense is run stop and the weakness is the secondary. Navy cannot exploit it.
3. Navy pass defense is very suspect and this is the best pass offense on their schedule this year outside of maybe ucf. maybe. The point is it is navy offense vs houston defensive strength and houston offense vs navy defensive weakness.
4. I just think this is the worst Navy team in a good bit while I think Houston has a shot at winning the AAC.

The concern is the Tulsa game but Tulsa has a kid who can match up better than average against Oliver and just a good run blocking offensive line overall. But the concern with laying pts against option teams is always the same .. you generally have less possessions to get it done and the option teams rarely quit.
 
UNC at Syracuse (under 67
CC at Umass (Umass -3)
Nevada at Hawaii (over 68)
Colorado at Washington (Washington -15)
Cal at OrSt (Cal -7)
odu at wky (ODU 5)
zona at ucla (ucla -8)
 
Ryno14 said:
Any thoughts on Auburn/Miss Over, VK?
Click to expand...

I really don't at this point. The game thoroughly confused me the first time I looked at it. The game last week confused me too with both Auburn and Ole Miss. So I am thinking I will go back and look at it again but also thinking any involvement I have will be really small. I guess maybe I will talk it out some and you can help me ...

Speed between snaps indicates that there will be a lot of snaps
Ole Miss averaging 8.12 yards per play but when up against good defense only had 4.2 and 4.75 yards per play against Bama and LSU. Auburn giving up just 4.84 yards per play. I would think that means we would expect something closer to those Bama and LSU games .. but Ole Miss also at home too, and will look to dictate pace. How many plays and how many yards? Auburn has ok pass defense numbers but Ole Miss is by far the best passing offense they will have faced this year. With Auburn's run defense does Ole Miss gameplan call for more passing? AKA more plays? Vols being able to throw on Auburn has to be concerning and they went from having preseason aspirations to a legitimate chance of not bowling (will get to that in a minute) ... does that mean they are not going to be focused or does that mean they will be more focused? shrug if i know. meanwhile, Auburn and Stidham haven't done diddly doo in a bean stalk patch but Ole Miss hasn't really even shown the ability to stop anyone either.

Auburn has vs tamu, at uga, liberty, and at alabama left .. they have 4 wins right now. while they may have the talent to beat uga or tamu and might have the want to against their rival bama ... the way they are playing right now makes me think they need to beat ole miss to get bowl eligible. And gus needs to win in order to have much chance at retention of his job (though I don't really know the economics of it off the top of my head as to whether that is the case or not). So you would THINK .. that Auburn is giving max effort here .. but again, shrug if i know. And does max effort = less pts scored in the game or more? Not sure on that either.

Just a lot going on and I was so far off on both teams and what they are from preseason that my mind is a little muddled concerning both. Would love any input you have on it. Just a lot of conflicting data to side and total imo ... game could go lots of different ways and not sure I know which is most likely.

There is a correct play in this game, I just haven't found it yet. If you cannot tell that I am confused, I am telling you that I am confused.
 
RetroVK said:
I really don't at this point. The game thoroughly confused me the first time I looked at it. The game last week confused me too with both Auburn and Ole Miss. So I am thinking I will go back and look at it again but also thinking any involvement I have will be really small. I guess maybe I will talk it out some and you can help me ...

Speed between snaps indicates that there will be a lot of snaps
Ole Miss averaging 8.12 yards per play but when up against good defense only had 4.2 and 4.75 yards per play against Bama and LSU. Auburn giving up just 4.84 yards per play. I would think that means we would expect something closer to those Bama and LSU games .. but Ole Miss also at home too, and will look to dictate pace. How many plays and how many yards? Auburn has ok pass defense numbers but Ole Miss is by far the best passing offense they will have faced this year. With Auburn's run defense does Ole Miss gameplan call for more passing? AKA more plays? Vols being able to throw on Auburn has to be concerning and they went from having preseason aspirations to a legitimate chance of not bowling (will get to that in a minute) ... does that mean they are not going to be focused or does that mean they will be more focused? shrug if i know. meanwhile, Auburn and Stidham haven't done diddly doo in a bean stalk patch but Ole Miss hasn't really even shown the ability to stop anyone either.

Auburn has vs tamu, at uga, liberty, and at alabama left .. they have 4 wins right now. while they may have the talent to beat uga or tamu and might have the want to against their rival bama ... the way they are playing right now makes me think they need to beat ole miss to get bowl eligible. And gus needs to win in order to have much chance at retention of his job (though I don't really know the economics of it off the top of my head as to whether that is the case or not). So you would THINK .. that Auburn is giving max effort here .. but again, shrug if i know. And does max effort = less pts scored in the game or more? Not sure on that either.

Just a lot going on and I was so far off on both teams and what they are from preseason that my mind is a little muddled concerning both. Would love any input you have on it. Just a lot of conflicting data to side and total imo ... game could go lots of different ways and not sure I know which is most likely.

There is a correct play in this game, I just haven't found it yet. If you cannot tell that I am confused, I am telling you that I am confused.
Click to expand...

I think your confusion has gotten me confused now. I tend to think that Auburn is more likely to come out hot and Stidham has one of those games that makes you ask where this has been all season. I feel like any time you count Gus out, they put it together, but even after that, that’s just my thought and not something worth betting on. That would be the true definition of gambling. Though, I believe that Auburn could not really go all out this game and still cover this number.
 
I am an auburn fan, and I think ole miss wins the game. After seeing what UT was able to do to our secondary, I can only imagine what Ta’amu and their wr’s will do to us. So Miss was the best pass off we have played so far...we gave up 70% comp and passer rating of 108. Add to this, we have a top DL questionable (marlon davidson), a top corner out for 1h for targeting (jeremiah dinson), another top corner questionable (jamel dean), and our top rb questionable (jatarvious whitlow). It looks like all the questionable guys will play, but could be limited. I think we lose this game and every other game on our schedule except for liberty (if we play well). We end up 5-7, miss a bowl, and possibly buy out gus’ contract.
 
Add

Stanford/ASU under 58.5

It has gotten bet way up and I get it from where it started but this has gotten a little bit out of hand. I hemmed and hawed and lost out on the 59's where it met resistance. But taking a stab at the under. This is a smallish investment though. Usually these types of bets... the kind where it moves away from my number into a betting range... are not gonna hit at a normal clip.
 
VK, let's cash Arky St. tonight.

Good value after they collapsed vs. Appy St. last week. But they were in it until things derailed. Were stout against the run too, to start.

Their run defense isn't string enough to make it a play for me, either, but it's skewed because of Bama. But GAST doesn't run the ball well enough for me to be concerned.

On the other side of things... they should run all over Ga St.

Over and Fav look good
 
I meam afa should run all over them and afa rush D has been great. I will pay to see unlv pass it successfully consistently. Rebs 2h last week wasnt that bad i guess
 
Add

Rutgers 20

Also there is a typo/bad transcribe on one of my totals, in post #8. I don't edit those posts but I fixed it in the main window.
 
Lots of wind showing up in a few games. Effecting some of the overs I have. I would check weather on minus signs and overs
 
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