time to post my week 8 card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
I
in&out
Guest
good luck
I
in&out
Guest
all week i was waiting for you to add BC seems like your style
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Pretty sure it is 98 on the posted. Always fun grading what is posted when a lot of these games I bet multiple times at different numbers but only post one of them, usually the number I have most investment in at the time I am near a unit. For instance, I had extra money on Zona which lost so while I pushed on the posted play, I actually lost money on that side. I refuse to do the -1 0.8/-1.5 0.25/-2 0.25 types of posts because it is a pain in the ass as it is to upkeep. That would make it unbearable. I also lost a bet on oregon that I didn't get to post and did ok on halftimes but didn't have a chance to post those. Seeing the halftimes really well this year.
Assuming this Washington State game stays under (would need ot again to not) I will at least be above .500 on totals for the year, even if still losing. I worked hard on them this week with time in the hotel where I didn't need to work on my examination. Hard work paid dividends. Go figure.
Hope you did well today Horses.
I had a lot of big misses like the unt/fau total ( I didn't see a play and don't want to), the Tulsa/Uconn total (Still confused but it was waaaaay wrong), the Oklahoma total (had an angle that didnt come to fruition), lackluster michigan who seemed flat and almost relegated to defeat (expected more harbaugh), bowling green (didnt see a play), and temple/Army (just got it wrong i think)
Not quite sure where the indiana and usf wins disappeared to but I had a couple lucky winners to make up for those.
All in all happy with how the week played out. Tech and FSU let me down on the teasers. (my teams are horrible the last six minutes of games).
Assuming this Washington State game stays under (would need ot again to not) I will at least be above .500 on totals for the year, even if still losing. I worked hard on them this week with time in the hotel where I didn't need to work on my examination. Hard work paid dividends. Go figure.
Hope you did well today Horses.
I had a lot of big misses like the unt/fau total ( I didn't see a play and don't want to), the Tulsa/Uconn total (Still confused but it was waaaaay wrong), the Oklahoma total (had an angle that didnt come to fruition), lackluster michigan who seemed flat and almost relegated to defeat (expected more harbaugh), bowling green (didnt see a play), and temple/Army (just got it wrong i think)
Not quite sure where the indiana and usf wins disappeared to but I had a couple lucky winners to make up for those.
All in all happy with how the week played out. Tech and FSU let me down on the teasers. (my teams are horrible the last six minutes of games).
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
I played Indiana this week and played them last week as well. I've played them a lot over the past few years as underdogs.
I've done this despite the fact that they seemingly do whatever it takes to fuck over their chances of covering. They're always 'good enough' as a team to get it done but dumb penalties, turnovers, late game meltdowns are the norm...it's just what they do.
I was hesitant to play them this week because it occurred to me that I'm consistently playing Indiana with absolutely no expectation that they can actually win the game outright. As 7 point dogs this should be a possibility. But I never have the urge to bet the moneyline with them. Maybe that's my cue to stop playing Indiana altogether.
I've done this despite the fact that they seemingly do whatever it takes to fuck over their chances of covering. They're always 'good enough' as a team to get it done but dumb penalties, turnovers, late game meltdowns are the norm...it's just what they do.
I was hesitant to play them this week because it occurred to me that I'm consistently playing Indiana with absolutely no expectation that they can actually win the game outright. As 7 point dogs this should be a possibility. But I never have the urge to bet the moneyline with them. Maybe that's my cue to stop playing Indiana altogether.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I have done similar though I expected them to win this game for some reason. I was pleading with them to go for the fourth and goal and started to get that bad feeling in my gut.
With that said, were I a gifted athlete playing RB for MSU on that last drive, Indiana covers. I mean it was interesting that the Indiana coach and team do the smart thing (let them score) and the Michigan State rb does the dumb thing (doesn't slide for victory formation) and it costs Indiana backers money.
Cubsker texted me that he is pretty sure if lagow had been qb the last two weeks, indiana wins both those games and it is hard to disagree with that sentiment
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I have not done report cards in awhile ... oh and wanted to say I met Christian Okoye Thursday night. I wanted to mention that somewhere.
UCF -6.5 GRADE Cminus - UCF only outgained navy by about 60 yards despite being plus one in turnovers with yardage impact (plus two counting final drive interception). Each team had one really long play but otherwise played good defense. Navy fumbled halfway through the fourth qtr just past midfield as they were driving for the tying score. A couple plays later, UCF secured the front door cover. Certainly the market line was closer to what happened on the field than the line I created. To give you an idea of how strange this game was compared to how I capped the game to play out .... had you told me that UCF would only pass for 65 more yards than Navy, I would have bet navy. And had you told me Navy would only rush for 1 more yard than UCF, I would have unloaded on UCF. Feel kind of fortunate to cover and also feel a little better about my original take on UCF, a good but not great team playing one of the easiest and tailor made schedules that one could ask for.
Marshall -3/Game total under/second half under big - Grade A - I think I had a lot of this game right. 640 combined yards and just 273 from MTSU. First half turnovers accounted for some scoring which I think allowed for the books to put out what I expected them to come with which was 24.5 or 24. I think it was clear that MTSU was going to have trouble succeeding offensively and with a big lead, Marshall would likely just eat clock. That played out well. Side was definitely a good bet. Obviously, winning the game total was extremely lucky to borderline bad beat for over backers after all those first half points, Only 133 plays or so. I think I had this pretty well capped and the unlucky first half actually ended up making me money.
Indiana 7.5 - Grade Bplus - This game largely played out exactly as I thought. Indiana outgained by 21 yards, though msu had a 5 fd advantage. They held msu to 274 yards of which 119 yards came on the last two drives, both TD. Indiana smartly allowed MSU a TD down 1 late in the game and michigan state dumbly did not slide and our team being smart and their team being stupid, allowed msu to cover. I thought a key event was Indiana not going for a fourth and 1 at the michigan state 2 when up 3 with 12 and a half minutes to go or so. I doubt MSU was going to drive the length of the field from there had they stopped Indiana. since they barely had more than 98 yards in the game to that point! I am a little confused by the love affair with Ramsey too. Did Lagow do something to get in the doghouse? He moved their offense much better than Ramsey and I am struggling to figure out what Ramsey does well. If you think running it, you are wrong and his passing ability, vision, decision making, ability to not lock in on one receiver, etc etc is just really bad. They have failed to hit 300 yards in these last two games he started. I think my not downgrading my pr enough (I did lower it) for him starting the game is the only thing that keeps me from making this a grade of A. This was one where I had a hard time seeing how I was going to lose at the beginning of the fourth quarter given how the game was playing out .... I didn't even fear overtime much with my early week number (I had more bets at different numbers). Very tough loss.
USF -11.5 Grade B minus or F- Why I ever hold onto bets involving florida teams where the line moves the wrong way is a mystery to me. Why I don't go for the middle at halftime in such games if I fail to get off of the game before kickoff where a line moves against a florida based school when it should not is also a mystery to me. I don't know how many times I have to see it before I learn my lesson. Hard game to grade when I am nearly 100% certain that usf was shaving points. Grade F since it was almost impossible for them to cover? Grade A based on the dominance in the first half before they started coasting? BTW, Tulane had several TD's called back on horrible calls in that game. boxscore, coupled with playbplay says it was a decent play, so I graded it a B minus but in my heart of hearts, I know they were never covering after what I watched in the fourth quarter. If this team had a real coach they might be pretty good. But they are awfully coached. And yet another blocked fg attempt under Strong. smh. His bad coaching wasn't the reason they didn't cover though. If you guys want to help me out, please remind me in the instances where I have bet a florida based team and the line has moved against me. BTW, I am not bitching about losing this bet I am bitching at myself for not realizing what was about to happen in advance.
Michigan 10 Grade F - In a sad tale .... I rarely look forward to a game anymore but I was looking forward to this one but missed the start and it was 14-0 before I got to begin watching. Then the way the game played out, I didn't get to enjoy what I thought would be late drama and didn't even get to enjoy a well played defensive battle like I expected. I pretty much got everythng wrong in this game. I didn't expect PSU to get to 400 yards, and they got 506, I didn't expect Barkley to get 100 yards rushing, he got 108, and I didn't expect McSorley to get 200 yards passing and he got 282. I certainly didn't expect McSorley to run for 76. The defensive scheme never really seemed to do a good job of accounting for the PSU QB's feet. He is a really nice player, as are their receivers. While the Mich offense was pretty bad, they were actually within the low end realm of what I expected so all of this bad handicap seemed to revolve around the mich defense vs psu offense part. Eh. It was the wrong side but not sure how I can avoid that bet given the methods I use to handicap. That will be played each time and I will have to deal with the 45% of the time that I am just wrong about the matchups. Disappointed about the money lost but also disappointed the game didn't live up to my expectations. Very impressive win for the Nittany Lions.
Notre Dame -4 Grade A plus / total under Grade B plus- Not much to say, 497 vs 336 in total yards pretty much describes both bets. It was a beatdown, particularly the Notre Dame defense vs the USC offense other than a strange drive third quarter where Notre Dame played prevent defense and usc played pitch and catch. After what had just happened in the indiana game I had a brief panic attack.
more later maybe
UCF -6.5 GRADE Cminus - UCF only outgained navy by about 60 yards despite being plus one in turnovers with yardage impact (plus two counting final drive interception). Each team had one really long play but otherwise played good defense. Navy fumbled halfway through the fourth qtr just past midfield as they were driving for the tying score. A couple plays later, UCF secured the front door cover. Certainly the market line was closer to what happened on the field than the line I created. To give you an idea of how strange this game was compared to how I capped the game to play out .... had you told me that UCF would only pass for 65 more yards than Navy, I would have bet navy. And had you told me Navy would only rush for 1 more yard than UCF, I would have unloaded on UCF. Feel kind of fortunate to cover and also feel a little better about my original take on UCF, a good but not great team playing one of the easiest and tailor made schedules that one could ask for.
Marshall -3/Game total under/second half under big - Grade A - I think I had a lot of this game right. 640 combined yards and just 273 from MTSU. First half turnovers accounted for some scoring which I think allowed for the books to put out what I expected them to come with which was 24.5 or 24. I think it was clear that MTSU was going to have trouble succeeding offensively and with a big lead, Marshall would likely just eat clock. That played out well. Side was definitely a good bet. Obviously, winning the game total was extremely lucky to borderline bad beat for over backers after all those first half points, Only 133 plays or so. I think I had this pretty well capped and the unlucky first half actually ended up making me money.
Indiana 7.5 - Grade Bplus - This game largely played out exactly as I thought. Indiana outgained by 21 yards, though msu had a 5 fd advantage. They held msu to 274 yards of which 119 yards came on the last two drives, both TD. Indiana smartly allowed MSU a TD down 1 late in the game and michigan state dumbly did not slide and our team being smart and their team being stupid, allowed msu to cover. I thought a key event was Indiana not going for a fourth and 1 at the michigan state 2 when up 3 with 12 and a half minutes to go or so. I doubt MSU was going to drive the length of the field from there had they stopped Indiana. since they barely had more than 98 yards in the game to that point! I am a little confused by the love affair with Ramsey too. Did Lagow do something to get in the doghouse? He moved their offense much better than Ramsey and I am struggling to figure out what Ramsey does well. If you think running it, you are wrong and his passing ability, vision, decision making, ability to not lock in on one receiver, etc etc is just really bad. They have failed to hit 300 yards in these last two games he started. I think my not downgrading my pr enough (I did lower it) for him starting the game is the only thing that keeps me from making this a grade of A. This was one where I had a hard time seeing how I was going to lose at the beginning of the fourth quarter given how the game was playing out .... I didn't even fear overtime much with my early week number (I had more bets at different numbers). Very tough loss.
USF -11.5 Grade B minus or F- Why I ever hold onto bets involving florida teams where the line moves the wrong way is a mystery to me. Why I don't go for the middle at halftime in such games if I fail to get off of the game before kickoff where a line moves against a florida based school when it should not is also a mystery to me. I don't know how many times I have to see it before I learn my lesson. Hard game to grade when I am nearly 100% certain that usf was shaving points. Grade F since it was almost impossible for them to cover? Grade A based on the dominance in the first half before they started coasting? BTW, Tulane had several TD's called back on horrible calls in that game. boxscore, coupled with playbplay says it was a decent play, so I graded it a B minus but in my heart of hearts, I know they were never covering after what I watched in the fourth quarter. If this team had a real coach they might be pretty good. But they are awfully coached. And yet another blocked fg attempt under Strong. smh. His bad coaching wasn't the reason they didn't cover though. If you guys want to help me out, please remind me in the instances where I have bet a florida based team and the line has moved against me. BTW, I am not bitching about losing this bet I am bitching at myself for not realizing what was about to happen in advance.
Michigan 10 Grade F - In a sad tale .... I rarely look forward to a game anymore but I was looking forward to this one but missed the start and it was 14-0 before I got to begin watching. Then the way the game played out, I didn't get to enjoy what I thought would be late drama and didn't even get to enjoy a well played defensive battle like I expected. I pretty much got everythng wrong in this game. I didn't expect PSU to get to 400 yards, and they got 506, I didn't expect Barkley to get 100 yards rushing, he got 108, and I didn't expect McSorley to get 200 yards passing and he got 282. I certainly didn't expect McSorley to run for 76. The defensive scheme never really seemed to do a good job of accounting for the PSU QB's feet. He is a really nice player, as are their receivers. While the Mich offense was pretty bad, they were actually within the low end realm of what I expected so all of this bad handicap seemed to revolve around the mich defense vs psu offense part. Eh. It was the wrong side but not sure how I can avoid that bet given the methods I use to handicap. That will be played each time and I will have to deal with the 45% of the time that I am just wrong about the matchups. Disappointed about the money lost but also disappointed the game didn't live up to my expectations. Very impressive win for the Nittany Lions.
Notre Dame -4 Grade A plus / total under Grade B plus- Not much to say, 497 vs 336 in total yards pretty much describes both bets. It was a beatdown, particularly the Notre Dame defense vs the USC offense other than a strange drive third quarter where Notre Dame played prevent defense and usc played pitch and catch. After what had just happened in the indiana game I had a brief panic attack.
more later maybe
