time to post my week 8 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
ML Dogs 1-0 (small price)
Teasers 1-0
Sides 48-33
Totals 39-43
Halftimes 14-7
Overall 103-83

Well, had a very nice week to get to 20 games over .500. Totals and Halftimes led the way last week with sides going 2-3. Felt like there was a lot of positive energy in the thread last week and appreciated that as well.

Locked In:

ML Dog: 1-0 (1-0)

Teasers: ytd1-0
SMU-1.5/Texas Tech -1 loser. 0-1
Missouri -9/FSU pick loser 0-2
Teasers 1-2 ytd (2-2)

Sides 48-33
UCF -6.5 winner 49-33
Marshall -3 winner 50-33
Indiana 7.5 loser lol 50-34
USF -11.5 loser lol 50-35
Michigan 10 loser 50-36
Notre Dame -4 winner 51-36
Arizona -1 push lol 51-36
Georgia Tech -4 winner 52-36
Bowling Green 14 loser 52-37
SMU -7 -120 loser 52-38
ASU 10 (smaller than normal) winner 53-38
Ridiculous
5-5
53-38 ytd (55-40)

totals 39-43
ull/ark st over 66 loser 39-44
memphis/houston over 61.5 winner 40-44
wky/odu under 49 loser 40-45
marshall/mtsu under 49 winner 41-45

Colorado/Washington State under 52 winner 42-45
Oklahoma/kstate under 55.5 loser 42-46
UNT/FAU Under 66 loser (whoops) 42-47
cuse/Miami under 59.5 winner 43-47
usc/ND under 65.5 winner 44-47
Iowa/Nw under 47 winner 45-47
Tulsa/Uconn over 75.5 loser (whoops) 45-48
Buffalo/Moh under 45.5 winner 46-48
wmich/emu under 52 winner 47-48
temple/army under 47 loser 47-49
Pitt/duke over 49.5 (larger than normal) loser 47-50
boston college/Uva over 47 (larger than normal) winner 48-50
wake/GT over 47.5 winner 49-50
NC/VT over 52.5 winner 50-50
Uk/Missst under 54.5 winner 51-50
zona/Cal over 65 winner 52-50
13-7
52-50 ytd (107-90)


Halftimes
Marshall/mtsu under 24.5 (larger than normal) winner
csu/unm over 30 loser
1-1
15-8 ytd (122-98)
 
Last edited:
Thanks Cavs.

nycuga - I don't know, since I played it but perhaps it is a competition thing. UCF has played nobody. When they played Memphis, they were without half their defense and when they played the terps, the qb got hurt right away, and cinci, ecu and fiu are all trainwrecks without other circumstances. So maybe they just want ucf to prove it once, which they haven't really done yet. Or they think the option will work on UCF and limit possessions. shrug. I will have a hard time watching and cheering for them because I hate their schedule and I love the academies. So if they win but don't cover, I will probably shed a little tear.
 
I'd never try to talk you off anything but just must point out that after yesterday, and you know I'm pretty much strictly situational, there's no chance I'd lay points with GT this week. I do trust the coach more than most other coaches to keep some focus but just tough to do after that. Giving away a TD even against Wake in that situation seems at minimum dangerous.
 
VK you are focusing too much time and energy on the wrong FLA team


Biggest bet of the year coming for me as soon as I can get it....

GL this week
 
also technicality but i like to have all plays in separate unedited windows from post 1 so ..

ucf -6.5
 
Limited sample under Clausen and different level of athleticism from GT, but in the home and home with Army the last two years, Wake Forest seemed to have the recipe for containing the triple option. Wolford is important to them, injury report says he is likely to play. I've been wrong before (I was in 6 out of 10 tries yesterday), but I think a Georgia Tech bet leads to frustration and a BP spike as the best case scenario, and lost money as the worst, and that is to say nothing of the situation off the Miami game. There has to be better bets out there, but it could win, GT is objectively a much better team.

What about SDSU (bounceback value), Connecticut (barf), Ohio (no LV in my mind just a disparity in matchup/coaching/ability), ECU (right team favored?), Va Tech, Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois (back in a role as big road dog that better suits their program right now), ULM (back as a dog), and USC (barf)? That is the laundry list of games I wanted to ask you about. Don't write-up them all up unless you were going to anyway, just a quick yes, no or maybe for each one is great. Thank you sir.
 
SDSU - I haven't been lining Fresno State and won't start now.
Uconn - Tempting but I will likely be looking at the over (never know what they release but I will likely want it) and I don't want to back Shirreffs with two bets ever again. If they get total about right then maybe I will revisit.
Ohio - Also tempting. The offense is just awful for kent st but they have been holding opposing offenses to low numbers anyway. Probably not for me though 37-6 looks completely doable for ohio. I inow I don't want a kent state ticket ...
ECU - no
VT - no
missouri - I have no clue on that game so it is an easy avoid for me. Might take out some frustrations on Idaho though.
kentucky - haven't lined it yet. I think there are some injuries to figure out.
Illinois - maybe.
ULM- Friends don't let friends bet ulm games
USC - If you mean the trojans, hell no. I am seriously considering ND there assuming Wimbush is a go (probable per don best)
 
Yea im kinda surprised that sparty is getting 7.5. this is a rather conservative offense that doesn't like to throw down the field but instead grinds out a lot of time of possession. they're not a team one wants to rely on to win by more than a touchdown. In their two two reputable wins iowa and um had the chance to win the game at the end. Even their performance vs the mac opponents wasn't special
 
vk said:
I don't think msu is markedly better than indiana
Click to expand...

Both teams have a weak rushing attack, LJ Scott tho finally had a great game, Minny has two quality backs but poor run blocking. An interesting dual threat qb. Some talent at wide receiver, most notably Davis for Sparty, Cobbs for Indiana. Offensively speaking theyre very even in terms of talent.
 
SC back down to -3. I have ND as the better team on a neutral which makes me think I'm doing something very, very wrong here.
 
Agree with Bar, obviously. Notre Dame is much better.

Lucky to get a split tonight. The ULL offense just isn't performing right now, unless they are on the set of a Yag porno.
 
Be curious your conviction on Notre Dame as I will likely be on USC all though after the game last week I have to temper the expectations. ND seems a popular choice and as a skeleton overview I get it, but I'll be shocked if that OL doesn't take control of the game in the 2h. What they did to a very formidable Utah front was, quite honestly, unreal imo. Of course gotta factor in the inevitable couple turnovers that shouldn't be turnovers but I'm trying to see it.
 
Do we know what the ND D will do when faced with a balanced team that can pass as good as they throw?

Vs Georgia it was Fromm's first start and not sure ND has faced anyone else with a semblance of a good passing game. I know what MSU did, but most of that was playing catchup.
 
Ha, I meant pass as good as they run.

I actually think there are things to like about both of USC and ND so it is a hard game for me to pick. USC has been challenged and tested alot, which can be good and bad. The tougher competition and moments should make them better, but they aren't as fresh and have more injuries because of it. ND running game is going to be hard for just about anyone to stop. Wimbush might be limited with his arm, overall they are getting so much more positive production out of the QB spot than last year.
 
I like your Michigan and ND choices. UCF still needs to prove they can beat a quality team, and game is on the road. I'll watch this one or play a total.
I have had Good Luck with Arizona this year but its a road game and after what Cal did last week I probably pass this one.
One of my 'tie-breakers" in choosing a side where the points are close to a coin flip is - I prefer to fade teams that are coming in after an OT loss. Hence, I lean Sparty but acknowledge it isn't among strongest plays of the week.
Guess I will ride with you on So Florida.
Would welcome your thoughts on the ASU-Utah game. I cashed with ASU last week, but certainly didn't visualize SU win.
Had one total last week it was in the Game of the Week Rutgers/Illinois over. I think you gave it to me.:clapping2:

I see you said "no" to Gar on the ECU question. Does that mean you like B Y U ?
As the guru of Grade B games, I feel obliged to pick a winner in that one.
And finally, another one between two crap teams - U Mass v Geo Southern. Any opinion ?

Best of luck
 
I am on that as well vk, I watched most of the half and the entire first qtr Colo St looked out of sorts but scored 3 times in a row to close out the half. If they keep it up should be able to make it there.
 
ksimpsc said:
Well the third quarter looked almost like the first.
Click to expand...
Odd play calling by csu but i suppose stevens inaccuracy and the receivers drops played into it. It was quite apparent to me that unm was for more equipped to stop the rams rush than pass but csu seemed reluctant yo stick with it. Untimely drops and untimely penalties and a 52 yard fg miss from overtime. There were plays available. Jordan somehow doesnt see the primary receiver break wide open, overthrows ....on to tomorrow. I will post winning totals at a little after 8am pacific.

Good luck.

Thanks frank. Obviously got lucky on that game total.

Thanks bar
 
bull said:
I like your Michigan and ND choices. UCF still needs to prove they can beat a quality team, and game is on the road. I'll watch this one or play a total.
I have had Good Luck with Arizona this year but its a road game and after what Cal did last week I probably pass this one.
One of my 'tie-breakers" in choosing a side where the points are close to a coin flip is - I prefer to fade teams that are coming in after an OT loss. Hence, I lean Sparty but acknowledge it isn't among strongest plays of the week.
Guess I will ride with you on So Florida.
Would welcome your thoughts on the ASU-Utah game. I cashed with ASU last week, but certainly didn't visualize SU win.
Had one total last week it was in the Game of the Week Rutgers/Illinois over. I think you gave it to me.:clapping2:

I see you said "no" to Gar on the ECU question. Does that mean you like B Y U ?
As the guru of Grade B games, I feel obliged to pick a winner in that one.
And finally, another one between two crap teams - U Mass v Geo Southern. Any opinion ?

Best of luck
Click to expand...

I think Arizona matches up a lot better than washington state did, though I was legit shocked by that outcome. Small chance Arizona has been hiding a special player on the bench who is just now being unleashed.

I just have Indiana power rated slightly HIGHER than MSU so that was an auto-play for me. The spot is not very good for either team in my estimation.

I played ASU 10 which I will officially post in a little bit with the other plays. I see a game going down to the wire, probably with Utah winning. ASU actually looks a little better coached this year, with basically the same staff. So maybe they have bought in. Utah is in a sneaky bad spot off a grueling stretch of zona, stanford, usc ... three games inwhich they were outplayed by their opponent and coming off the failed two pt try which I would imagine would be the similar angle to what you were referring to with indiana off the ot loss. ASU can lay an egg at any moment as we know so I am a tad lighter on that one than most. I kind of like what the arizona based teams are doing this year.

I would like to take credit for that illinois/Rutgers game but I got lucky enough to cap with some really good people who were on top of the total ramifications of the Illini QB switch. Just makes for more big plays for the offense and defense.

I cannot back BYU against ECU but I cannot do the opposite either and thought the line would at a minimum move towards a larger favorite. It did do that, so I feel good about saying "no" there at least from that perspective. Try to think of an outcome to that game that shocks you though ..... there aren't many which does make me think that the pts might be the way to go, while I actually like BYU to win somehow. Very tough game.

I think Ga Southern is getting better offensively and I think the UMass QB and offense can probably do to Ga Southern what NMSU did. I would lean over in that football game but I didn't play it.
 
Teasers:
SMU-1.5/Texas Tech -1
Missouri -9/FSU pick

Sides

Georgia Tech -4
Bowling Green 14
SMU -7 -120
ASU 10 (smaller than normal)

totals
Colorado/Washington State under 52
Oklahoma/kstate under 55.5
UNT/FAU Under 66
cuse/Miami under 59.5
usc/ND under 65.5
Iowa/Nw under 47
Tulsa/Uconn over 75.5
Buffalo/Moh under 45.5
wmich/emu under 52
temple/army under 47
Pitt/duke over 49.5 (larger than normal)
boston college/Uva over 47 (larger than normal)
wake/GT over 47.5
NC/VT over 47
Uk/Missst under 54.5
zona/Cal over 65
 
Y'all convinced me to lay off GT earlier in the week. But at 4, this line is saying Wake=GT and I just cannot get behind that sentiment. I know I will regret this later today but I had to take a shot at that number.

I worked very hard on totals creation this week. Very hard. More than normal. So I really think my totals are going to do well today.

I am likely adding Oregon later. My local sportsbook has ucla regulars so I am hoping to get a better number closer to game time. Rushing attack of ducks vs that rushing defense is just something I think I will have to do.
 
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