time to post my week 7 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
week 1 0-0
week 2 0-0
week 3 9-4
week 4 6-5-1
week 5 12-8
week 6 16-11
Total 43-28-1

Another good week and another good week for the games I was most confident about, except UTEP ... who continues to ruin my life nearly 30 years after I graduated. As if the poor education they gave me wasn't enough. I am in an exceptionally good mood regarding cfb this morning as I think the Boise State cover, the way it happened, was perhaps the luckiest cover ever for me. Off the top of my head, other than Ohio State recovering the NW fumble on pitches a bunch of years back, I cannot think of another game where I was on the winning side of the bullcrap. Incidentally, Harsin threw a bomb when he knew UNLV would be loading up to stop the run the drive before and it was there and the throw was missed, which visibly upset Harsin, despite the game being out of reach for UNLV. Why? Because he knew the spread and was trying to cover. Then when he can take knees, he punches it in. And the UNLV extra pt shank, made every boise state number a winner, I believe. Just an insane ending to that game.

Locked In:

Louisiana Monroe -3 winner
Florida State +26 loser
BYU-4 (Yes, I know) loser
Ohio -6.5 loser
Kent State -11 winner
Michigan State +10 loser
MTSU 11.5 loser
Army -4 loser
Washington -6 winner
Terps -4 loser
Michigan -19 loser

Syracuse/NC State over 57.5 loser
Ball State/Eastern Michigan over 58 loser
Iowa State/WVirginia under 57 winner
Louisville/Wake Forest over 66 winner
USC/Notre Dame under 56.5 loser

Strong Leans:
Vols
Washington State



Talk Me Off Leans:
San Jose State
UAB
 
Last edited:
ADDS

Louisiana Monroe -3
Florida State +26
BYU-4 (Yes, I know)
Ohio -6.5
Kent State -11
Michigan State +10
MTSU 11.5
Army -4
Washington -6
 
twinkie13 said:
You know I’m gonna ask.....and I think I know the way you lean.....
LSU v FLA
Side and total please
Click to expand...

I made it 12.5 so no real lean, though I believe the spot is MUCH better for tigers. With that said ... 12.5 feels like a lot to be giving up to that Florida defense. Second big game in a row for Florida though and LSU probably has been preparing for this one for quite some time. I think Florida is a more known commodity right now than LSU .. this is probably where we find out if the LSU offense is everything it appears to be. This game.

35-22/23
 
Did you happen to watch any of the Texas/WVU gm? I am particularly interested in status of Texas DB's at this point, and if I had to guess they are playing a lot of inexperienced guys right now due to the injuries. I was surprised that WVU threw the ball so effectively.
 
Timh said:
Did you happen to watch any of the Texas/WVU gm? I am particularly interested in status of Texas DB's at this point, and if I had to guess they are playing a lot of inexperienced guys right now due to the injuries. I was surprised that WVU threw the ball so effectively.
Click to expand...

They played terrible. I think Foster and Brown are going to be ok but I don't think Sterns or Green are.

I cannot imagine we match up well vs the Oklahoma passing game. I do think we match up well to score with them though. So game should fly over (most reasonable to expect numbers) particularly with Texas behind and being forced into a more Oklahoma tempo type game. But based on what I watched Saturday, we are in tough shape in the secondary vs this particular opponent.
 
Curious on your thoughts on BYU. I have Zach Wilson as worth about 3 points over the backup, Critchlow, who apparently went on his Mission last year. My revised power ratings make this about a 3 point game over, the horribly coached USF team (goodbye Charlie). Does the QB change factor into your opinion on BYU over USF?

Joe Critchlow
#10 | Quarterback
Ht/Wt6'4" | 220lbs
ClassSophomore
HometownFranklin, TN
MissionMontreal, Canada
Last SchoolFranklin HS
Roster Years2017-2019

Career Totals
ATTCOMPPCTYDSINTTDRAT
2017 Season Stats
10155.54564243109.7
10155.54564243109.7
 
I valued Wilson to Backup at 5 points (this is the "Yes, I know" part above) but still made this considerably higher. But it should be Jaren Hall playing QB for them. I also cannot give BYU much of a coaching edge as their Head Coach is pretty awful in his own right. However, I think BYU is playing better as a club overall, and probably a worthy bowl team but in order to make it to a bowl, this game is actually pretty key .. Boise and Utah State after this. They need this. They are off a bye which gives them time to prepare the kid and as they have no conference affiliation the bye is likely spent completely on prepping him and prepping for USF. This team has played UTAH USC, Washington, Tennessee, and Toledo to start the year and like I mentioned Boise and Utah state are next up after this game. Team is battle tested. UCONN to upset USF was a pretty trendy pick here and elsewhere and even in some of my regular capping circles. One team just appears much better than the other ....
 
I admire you going back to the well with Washington.

After that decrepit performance against Stanford I swore off of them for the rest of the year.
 
AliShaheed said:
I admire you going back to the well with Washington.

After that decrepit performance against Stanford I swore off of them for the rest of the year.
Click to expand...

It was an abomination of a performance. If it is just who they are then I lose (again).
 
Also, I saw Ohio moved to 7. I would not be surprised if that fell from there. I sort of regretted not waiting to play Ohio but it looks smart for now .... but I just have a feeling it drops at some point.
 
No bold plays this week. I like FSU the best but I couldn't bring myself to fade Clemson for extra this time.

I don't mind USC plus ... I think they can hold ND to about 30 or 31 ... or lower ... so it makes the points appealing .. but I have 30-20 for a final score so just not enough for me to like it enough to invest in it. I don't want multiple units on USC defense performing either. I will stick with the under.
 
Well our friends at ESPN have provided the bulletin board material, by essentially calling them overrated. Not that they need it. This game will be over by halftime. Ettienne should break the century and Sunshine will throw all over our midgets. Oops, I mean little people in our defensive backfield. Clemson receiver props should warrant a look.
 
Timh said:
Did you happen to watch any of the Texas/WVU gm? I am particularly interested in status of Texas DB's at this point, and if I had to guess they are playing a lot of inexperienced guys right now due to the injuries. I was surprised that WVU threw the ball so effectively.
Click to expand...

Whole defense was pretty bad.
 
RetroVK said:
I don't mind USC plus ... I think they can hold ND to about 30 or 31 ... or lower ... so it makes the points appealing .. but I have 30-20 for a final score so just not enough for me to like it enough to invest in it. I don't want multiple units on USC defense performing either. I will stick with the under.
Click to expand...

What do you make of the fact that SC was +12 or +13 at wash (and wash covered) but now only +11 at ND?

I would've guessed that ND would be rated much higher?
 
You are both right. Washington was -9.5 at one point but got bet to -12.

ND > Washington but a little more goes into the line than just that. For instance, USC had played four straight weeks with emotional games against BYU and UTAH prior to at Washington, where as here they have a bye leading into Notre Dame. Just a much different scenario in my opinion which accounts for some of that.

ND 423, 321, and 343 vs Ville, UGA and UVA, respectively. All their yardage has come against cupcakes. 591 unm and 573 Bowling green. As mentioned, off a bye, I kind of like USC defense to compete. I also am not a fan of Book when he doesn't have all the advantages.

Since we are discussing the game, I also like that we have two coaches who like to sit on their leads for the under bet.
 
I was really hoping for Memphis to force them into making a total in the mid-fifties but they got it right.
 
I was really hoping that after the VT game, they would line the UVA/Miami game higher. But they made that impossible for me to go under too.
 
Some nice movement for the plays so far ..

Michigan, key half pt with Terps, near meaningless half pt on the emu total, BYU a couple pts, ISU total a couple pts, MTSU a pt, good half pt with washington,

Some indifference on Ohio (told ya it would drop back down off the 7), ulm, Mich St and the wake total

Some negative line movement on USC/ND total, FSU (part of me knew that Clemson would take money but when it is my favorite game I have to assume it will move towards me)

Again, I have a strong feeling NIU moves to 6 and maybe lower before kickoff.
 
any thoughts on niu-ohio ? both teams seem to be far worse from last year and losing the line of scrimmage battles. NIU only lost sutton smith on defense from last year so not sure what their problem is....I took NIU, not my most confident play but ohio doesn't feel like they should be laying a touchdown to too many teams right now. NIU hasn't defended the qb rpo run game very well so I can see Ohio having success there, but otherwise seems like a pretty even contest.

anybody see why ball states pass offense threw for 34 yards and so few attempts last week ? doesn't make sense
 
Looks like Slovis is playing which makes my washington comparison irrelevant.

SC seems to do the jump ball thing pretty well which makes them a constant backdoor risk. But I get nervous about a road team that absolutely cannot run the football.
 
NCST at FSU was low sixties at close I believe
CUSE at NCST is now 55

If it isn't weather related and you can figure that one out .. .please let me know.
 
like every one of your sides and the Wake and Cuse overs. I can't avoid Ohio again. Took Toledo -25 Iowa +4.5 Navy +1 CMU -10 as well. Fading Bowling Green and New Mexico State is hopefully profitable but we shall see.
 
RetroVK said:
NCST at FSU was low sixties at close I believe
CUSE at NCST is now 55

If it isn't weather related and you can figure that one out .. .please let me know.
Click to expand...

Somebody saying FSU scoring potential greater than Syracuse scoring potential?
 
Talk Me Off Leans:
San Jose State
UAB
Click to expand...

UAB and UTSA are both bad teams I think. One bad team, UAB has a 4-1 record though and a good coach. The other bad team has a losing record with their best QB injured and a coach who might get fired at some point. I can't possibly imagine an easier opening schedule than UAB has faced. Their OL has been said to be a pretty big issue (per fan message boards I don't watch much UAB football), but Rice couldn't make that show up rushing 4 or 5. Not sure if UTSA can do any better, but the Roadrunners do occasionally play some D. I can't say I saw anything out of UTSA O last week that would give me confidence in them, other than UTEP not making plays and making UTSA O look better than it is currently.
 
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