time to post my week 7 card so far

vk said:
The s bama troy game. ....don't let anyone tell you it is easy to figure these kids out one week to the next
Click to expand...

No shit there, talking about a level of apathy, disinterest and lack of focus. Exhibit 614 - See Troy last night. Wow
 
That was a situational cappers wet dream.

Mind you, 10 days after but still...

Having semi-followed Troy all season last night is no surprise.

Did I take advantage? Nope.
 
Same thing Saturday with Iowa State giving 21 to Kansas. How can Iowa State get up for a game they consider a walkover the week after the win of their lives?

Problem is Kansas is so bad it's still suicide to take them.
 
Good call on that ULL/Tex St game. You even predicted a couple of events that occurred during the game.

Any thoughts on the Okla/Texas total?
 
TahoeLegend said:
Good call on that ULL/Tex St game. You even predicted a couple of events that occurred during the game.

Any thoughts on the Okla/Texas total?
Click to expand...

I probably know as much about Texas as any team in the nation, year in and year out but I almost never get their games right for whatever reason. I suppose I would lean to the over here because I would expect the number of plays to be really high but I actually made the total right about where it currently sits.
 
BOL this week vk. Not doing well on totals so far but powering through, I like your style. More than I can say for me I have been shaking in my boots looking at the totals this week after my last few weeks. Make them hurt.
 
vk said:
I probably know as much about Texas as any team in the nation, year in and year out but I almost never get their games right for whatever reason. I suppose I would lean to the over here because I would expect the number of plays to be really high but I actually made the total right about where it currently sits.
Click to expand...

That was absolutely my initial thinking as well.The weird part about OU, to me, is that they are T92 in the country with Minnesota for plays per game at 68.8. Very low number, obviously they are pretty efficient but always something to think about.
 
I haven't done this in a few weeks and wasn't planning on doing it this week but since I have had some of the more incredible movement against my bets this week, I thought it was only fair to point it out, since it is my bragging point year in and year out. This is really bad; Hide the women and children.

Vols -2.5
Georgia Tech +7 -120 6.5 0 0
NMSU -7 -120 7 .5 -.5
ECU 36 36 0 -.5

Totals
Texas State/ULL Under 58 55 3 2.5 winner
Uconn/temple over 61.5 58 -3.5 -1.0
Texas Tech/WVU Over 79 72.5 Exclam -6.5 -5.5
EMU/Army under 45 48 -3 -8.5
Rutgers/Illy over 48 45 -3 -11.5
Akron/Wmich under 58 57.5 -.5 -12
NIU/Buff over 49 50 1 -11
NW/Terps over 50 49.5 -.5 -11.5
Navy/Memphis under 75 71 4 -7.5
Houston/Tulsa under 64 64.5 -.5 -8
UTSA/UNT Under 58.5 57 1.5 -6.5
TOSU/Neb Under 56.5 58.5 -2 -8.5
CSU/Nev over 64.5 61.5 -3 -11.5 (particularly ponderous move in my estimation)
Washington/Zona St Under 60.5 55.5 5 -6.5
ECU/UCF over 69.5 70.5 1 -5.5


So sides 1 move against, and two the same when accounting for juice. And on totals 9 of 14 remaining moved against. ouch
Last edited: 3 minutes ago
Beware of El Modre. The Beast stalks in the daylight and slays its prey at night.
 
This year, like no other I can remember, there have been some very curious moves on totals.
 
B.A.R. said:
That was absolutely my initial thinking as well.The weird part about OU, to me, is that they are T92 in the country with Minnesota for plays per game at 68.8. Very low number, obviously they are pretty efficient but always something to think about.
Click to expand...

Texas is slower paced based on plays than you would expect too. Also, while last years plays per game were high between these two, the two years before were not.

This is the game that i used to go to every year. This year, there is a decent chance I am attending the Kansas at Texas game.
 
B.A.R. said:
This year, like no other I can remember, there have been some very curious moves on totals.
Click to expand...

yup. Wondering if there are more ways to get down BIG somewhere that is mirroring the regular offshore lines/totals. Just a thought based on nothing
 
vk said:
Texas is slower paced based on plays than you would expect too. Also, while last years plays per game were high between these two, the two years before were not.

This is the game that i used to go to every year. This year, there is a decent chance I am attending the Kansas at Texas game.
Click to expand...
Texas is #5 out of 130 teams in plays per game.

Averaging the same amount of plays to a tee as all of 2016, fwiw.
 
there is a lot more action off screen than ever before through locals - very easy to set up local shop with the pay per head stuff
 
You have to figure out what Cal contributes imo. I suppose there is an outside possibility of Wazzu just going off but on the road seems harder and not sure Cal isn't playing better defense. I sort of like the direction California is going as a program but then I hated the style they were playing before. Anyway, I had a hard time making a good number for what Cal contributes (the line says 19ish) so I just backed away from the game when I need the road team to do all the heavy lifting. Wasington State is one of 13 teams that is giving up less than 4.5 yards per play and Cal is very respectable in that capacity too considering their opponents so far (rank somewhere in the middle of the pack in the country but i would say they have played better than average offenses and they have a stinker game against Weber). So there are some things to consider imo before backing that over.
 
VK,

If you have time- any quick thoughts on why you like N Texas game under the total?

I think weather is the cause for the Nevada/Col St total moving down. 20 plus mph winds
 
Reds4 said:
VK,

If you have time- any quick thoughts on why you like N Texas game under the total?

I think weather is the cause for the Nevada/Col St total moving down. 20 plus mph winds
Click to expand...


*Teams held eachother down for the most part last year
*UTSA a very good defense, top 20 statistically.
*North Texas average defensively.
*I estimated ~140 plays to be played in this game
*UTSA Pass defense offsets UNT WR who are probably their best unit
*Both teams YPP offense skewed by opponents faced
*North Texas helped more defensively off the bye than offensively in my opinion for prep
*Buddy in Denton says stadium will be packed this week. Something about a chance of winning something from the school if certain attendance marks are hit. I was confused but he says it will have more people than a normal game in Denton. I think that helps the UNT defense.
*UTSA offensive line banged up
*Combination of UTSA Oline woes and UTSA pass defense will possibly mean a low conversion rate on third downs

Some concerns are that while I think both offenses have benefited statistically based on opponents faced, the same can be said for the respective defenses. My other concern is big plays given UNT secondary tackling is suspect and UNT has a lot of talent at the skill positions which could lead to chunk plays. I also have some concern that I don't believe either of these teams will quit. If one of them gets ahead a bunch, the other will play faster and try hard to come back. I think that is in the make up of these two teams. Throw in that both teams appear to be ok in the field goal kicking game as another potential problem, given you might not get that longish sustained drive followed by a bad college kicker shank.

I think it largely comes down to not having a ton of plays (please), thinking unt can have some success against the Oline of UTSA and UTSA presenting the toughest pass defense challenge for UNT. Last time they played a good defense it was a good front seven of Iowa and they managed 305 yards. So I am a little reluctant to give UNT full credit for their offense, though I admit I like their scheme and their skill position players, so I don't think it's a fluke either.

Thing was totaled pretty high ...
 
Appreciate the thoughts VK. Good luck this weekend.


vk said:
*Teams held eachother down for the most part last year
*UTSA a very good defense, top 20 statistically.
*North Texas average defensively.
*I estimated ~140 plays to be played in this game
*UTSA Pass defense offsets UNT WR who are probably their best unit
*Both teams YPP offense skewed by opponents faced
*North Texas helped more defensively off the bye than offensively in my opinion for prep
*Buddy in Denton says stadium will be packed this week. Something about a chance of winning something from the school if certain attendance marks are hit. I was confused but he says it will have more people than a normal game in Denton. I think that helps the UNT defense.
*UTSA offensive line banged up
*Combination of UTSA Oline woes and UTSA pass defense will possibly mean a low conversion rate on third downs

Some concerns are that while I think both offenses have benefited statistically based on opponents faced, the same can be said for the respective defenses. My other concern is big plays given UNT secondary tackling is suspect and UNT has a lot of talent at the skill positions which could lead to chunk plays. I also have some concern that I don't believe either of these teams will quit. If one of them gets ahead a bunch, the other will play faster and try hard to come back. I think that is in the make up of these two teams. Throw in that both teams appear to be ok in the field goal kicking game as another potential problem, given you might not get that longish sustained drive followed by a bad college kicker shank.

I think it largely comes down to not having a ton of plays (please), thinking unt can have some success against the Oline of UTSA and UTSA presenting the toughest pass defense challenge for UNT. Last time they played a good defense it was a good front seven of Iowa and they managed 305 yards. So I am a little reluctant to give UNT full credit for their offense, though I admit I like their scheme and their skill position players, so I don't think it's a fluke either.

Thing was totaled pretty high ...
Click to expand...
 
vk said:
*Teams held eachother down for the most part last year
*UTSA a very good defense, top 20 statistically.
*North Texas average defensively.
*I estimated ~140 plays to be played in this game
*UTSA Pass defense offsets UNT WR who are probably their best unit
*Both teams YPP offense skewed by opponents faced
*North Texas helped more defensively off the bye than offensively in my opinion for prep
*Buddy in Denton says stadium will be packed this week. Something about a chance of winning something from the school if certain attendance marks are hit. I was confused but he says it will have more people than a normal game in Denton. I think that helps the UNT defense.
*UTSA offensive line banged up
*Combination of UTSA Oline woes and UTSA pass defense will possibly mean a low conversion rate on third downs

Some concerns are that while I think both offenses have benefited statistically based on opponents faced, the same can be said for the respective defenses. My other concern is big plays given UNT secondary tackling is suspect and UNT has a lot of talent at the skill positions which could lead to chunk plays. I also have some concern that I don't believe either of these teams will quit. If one of them gets ahead a bunch, the other will play faster and try hard to come back. I think that is in the make up of these two teams. Throw in that both teams appear to be ok in the field goal kicking game as another potential problem, given you might not get that longish sustained drive followed by a bad college kicker shank.

I think it largely comes down to not having a ton of plays (please), thinking unt can have some success against the Oline of UTSA and UTSA presenting the toughest pass defense challenge for UNT. Last time they played a good defense it was a good front seven of Iowa and they managed 305 yards. So I am a little reluctant to give UNT full credit for their offense, though I admit I like their scheme and their skill position players, so I don't think it's a fluke either.

Thing was totaled pretty high ...
Click to expand...

This is why I love this site. Before I joined, like others, i lurked. Your thread, and another "Horn" fan who's name will not be mentioned, were absolute must reads. To this day, I still view your thread on every post. Just to see what is being talked about. Thanks for what you do. You are an asset to each and every one of us.
 
Tulane thoughts please?

13 point faves?

Love Fritz......that's a bunch. Maybe they can.....Wave and 13 point gave sounds weird saying out loud
 
Not sure how to factor it into tonight's game, but the air quality here in Berkeley is awful. Very tough to breathe for anyone, as the fires from Napa and Santa Rosa are causing "very unhealthy" air quality. Perhaps it would be like playing at altitude, with limited space for lung capacity and people would get tired quicker, but I'm not really sure - never really experienced anything like it.

Just some food for thought. BOL Kyle.

J
 
twinkie13 said:
Tulane thoughts please?

13 point faves?

Love Fritz......that's a bunch. Maybe they can.....Wave and 13 point gave sounds weird saying out loud
Click to expand...

I could only back Tulane there. FIU rush defense is interesting though. 4.39 per carry yielded so far .. would have expected worse though opponents largely suck. Still, tap me on the shoulder when Tulane stops improving. They just keep executing better and growing in confidence.
 
jdoggoakley said:
Not sure how to factor it into tonight's game, but the air quality here in Berkeley is awful. Very tough to breathe for anyone, as the fires from Napa and Santa Rosa are causing "very unhealthy" air quality. Perhaps it would be like playing at altitude, with limited space for lung capacity and people would get tired quicker, but I'm not really sure - never really experienced anything like it.

Just some food for thought. BOL Kyle.

J
Click to expand...
It would appear it caused Falk to choke.
 
GL this week... You are the only person I've seen on ECU. I love a good doggie and yeah the line may be inflated but damn that d is putrid.
 
Lexington 125 said:
GL this week... You are the only person I've seen on ECU. I love a good doggie and yeah the line may be inflated but damn that d is putrid.
Click to expand...

Nice job on Cal, Lex.

I guess I just hope that ECU finds the endzone a couple of times. And yes, their defense is putrid and on top of it, they run a pretty fast pace which leaves that putrid defense on the field a lot. UCF is getting chunks on average defenses so I can understand people thinking they go off on ECU. Frost on my list as potential coach of the year .. Fritz, Richt, Smart, Saban, Brohm and Petersen would be my main list right now. I am sure Strong will be on some lists due to record but if you watch their games, you cannot seriously consider him. I would probably go with Fritz or Brohm now. Anyway, it will take turnovers to keep UCF from scoring.

But some food for thought ... assuming that defense is as putrid as normal and things go badly for ECU ... at what point are the offensive and defensive backups in the game for UCF in this one? Their offense is not horrible.

And a couple of people that I regularly talk football with and who I respect quite a bit are on ECU too, so I am not alone.
 
vk said:
ML Dogs 1-0 (small price)
Teasers 1-0
Sides 46-30
Totals 28-37
Halftimes 10-7
Overall 86-74

Several funny and slightly negative things to note. I have now lost money on four consecutive days of action in cfb. My favorite bet (or next to favorite) of last week, which still was under the total in the fourth quarter, with little chance to win but still under, ended up being the highest scoring game in fbs history. The pattern continued with crushing sides and getting crushed by totals. The funny thing about that is that I was going to play the Golden Nugget contest this year but backed out because they removed totals from the contest. Meaning, I thought that is where my biggest edge was. Anyway, on to this week

Sides
Vols -2.5
Georgia Tech +7 -120
NMSU -7 -120
ECU 36

Totals
Texas State/ULL Under 58
Uconn/temple over 61.5
Texas Tech/WVU Over 79
EMU/Army under 45
Rutgers/Illy over 48
Akron/Wmich under 58
NIU/Buff over 49
NW/Terps over 50
Navy/Memphis under 75
Houston/Tulsa under 64
UTSA/UNT Under 58.5
TOSU/Neb Under 56.5 (Like this a little more if Bryant is a go)
CSU/Nev over 64.5
Washington/Zona St Under 60.5
ECU/UCF over 69.5
Click to expand...

My effort at totals last week was a riot. Yes, I took your pic on WM-Buff (my blame, not yours. You get credit for win, I take blame for loss. bull's golden rule on sports betting
Then I believe u picked VPI-BC over. I misread my own hen scratches and bet the Under. Even more laughable, it had gone down 2 points from your number, so I took it at 47.
I did get some laughs out of my totals plays. Not discouraged. I will ask same question this week. One or two in particular that you like? As always, GL
Liking your middle two in Post #1. May coattail vols, altho I don't like the coach.
 
when I remember, I bold the ones I like most or bet more on.

Akron/Wmu under
houston/tulsa under
utsa/unt under
rutgers/illy over
nev/csu over (Reds mentioned weather could hurt there)

I just thought it was funny that one of my favorite unders of the year resulted in the highest scoring fbs game in history. That takes a special talent, Bull.
 
I loved your #88 LOL You exhibit great sense of humor, and I love that.
I will probably play #s 1 and 4 above, pending line moves.
GL
 
Thank you, mr. vk. I won my only total,play of the day.
Rutgers-Illinois. If I had known Jeff George Jr was going to QB the Illini today, I would have gone under.
Are you old enough to remember his father ? The only QB that was known by both first and last names. We had Namath, and we had Montana, and Elway, and Tebow. But TV announcers always referred to him as “ Jeff George”. He threw a lot of ints if my memory hasn’t failed.
Having some fun playing totals. It’s always more fun when you win.
 
I'm sure you saw Anderson got injured for Buffalo in the 2nd qrt I think. Some guy named Vantrease QB now. I have UB, somehow their D is keeping them in it, but it is going to be tough to hang on in the 4th with this QB.
 
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