time to post my week 7 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
ML Dogs 1-0 (small price)
Teasers 1-0
Sides 46-30
Totals 28-37
Halftimes 10-7
Overall 86-74

Several funny and slightly negative things to note. I have now lost money on four consecutive days of action in cfb. My favorite bet (or next to favorite) of last week, which still was under the total in the fourth quarter, with little chance to win but still under, ended up being the highest scoring game in fbs history. The pattern continued with crushing sides and getting crushed by totals. The funny thing about that is that I was going to play the Golden Nugget contest this year but backed out because they removed totals from the contest. Meaning, I thought that is where my biggest edge was. Anyway, on to this week

Sides
Vols -2.5 losers
Georgia Tech +7 -120 winner
NMSU -7 -120 winner
ECU 36 loser
Vanderbilt 3 loser
Updated sides 48-33

Totals
Texas State/ULL Under 58 winner
Uconn/temple over 61.5 loser
Texas Tech/WVU Over 79 winner
EMU/Army under 45 loser
Rutgers/Illy over 48 winner
Akron/Wmich under 58 postponed
NIU/Buff over 49 loser
NW/Terps over 50 winner
Navy/Memphis under 75 winner
Houston/Tulsa under 64 winner
UTSA/UNT Under 58.5 winner
TOSU/Neb Under 56.5 Loser
CSU/Nev over 64.5 winner
Washington/Zona St Under 60.5 winner
ECU/UCF over 69.5 winner
Virgina/UNC over 50.5 loser
georgiast/ULM under 59.5 loser (friends don't let friends bet on ulm games)
Akron/Wmich under 55 winner
updated totals 39-43
Halftime
South carolina plus 0.5 -110 winner
NMSU -3 -120 winner
Miami/GT under 27 winner
ohio -3 winner
updated halftimes 14-7

Overall 103-83
 
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I doubt I see the thread......back in your jovial days, I guess

Either way, thoughts on the game please?
 
WVU was a great bet. They should have won on the field. That TCU punter won that game, or kept them from getting blown out, for them.
 
B.A.R. said:
WVU was a great bet. They should have won on the field. That TCU punter won that game, or kept them from getting blown out, for them.
Click to expand...

They missed on opportunities that were there. Then fell behind and I figured it was one of those games like Illinois against Iowa.
 
twinkie13 said:
I doubt I see the thread......back in your jovial days, I guess

Either way, thoughts on the game please?
Click to expand...

What do you mean about not seeing the thread back in my jovial days?

As for the LSU game, it is a very difficult game to handicap due to what I believe is inconsistency from both teams. I think Auburn is executing a bit more crisply, and their offense is more equipped to find a big play or two than LSU's is. Both DL probably fair well though. Should be a lower scoring game, I would imagine. I think Auburn is slightly better all around because of the offenses but I just don't think laying those points, in that stadium, against that defense is going to cash enough to make too much profit. Sure seem to be clicking but it has basically all been at home or against Missouri's 9 man defensive unit. One road game against a defensive pulse, granted a great defense, and they had little to show for it. I think the game will be competitive though there are some elements to the auburn rushing game that have similar principles to what mississippi state does and that didn't go well for the bayou boys. Tough game. Auburn or nothing but I am going with nothing.
 
There are several of you who post on CTG who I text with quite a bit on Saturday's during football, and over the years ... would you guys say that I tend to focus on the negative or the positive? And is it a close contest between the two?

And for those of you that have met me and spent time with me, would you say I am generally happy/jovial or not?
 
vk said:
There are several of you who post on CTG who I text with quite a bit on Saturday's during football, and over the years ... would you guys say that I tend to focus on the negative or the positive? And is it a close contest between the two?

And for those of you that have met me and spent time with me, would you say I am generally happy/jovial or not?
Click to expand...

I look forward to these answers. I come to town you tend to head out.
 
An aside to the Auburn/LSU game...

Auburn, imo, is gelling quite a bit. They will beat up on the bad teams (half the SEC) and will keep things interesting with the preludes to the Georgia/Bama game. I have been following them quite a bit this year, lost some, won some on their games but definitely have been interested.

As far as that game, that is basically impossible to touch at current numbers when you factor everything in. The earliest numbers were quite soft though, imo.
 
B.A.R. said:
An aside to the Auburn/LSU game...

Auburn, imo, is gelling quite a bit. They will beat up on the bad teams (half the SEC) and will keep things interesting with the preludes to the Georgia/Bama game. I have been following them quite a bit this year, lost some, won some on their games but definitely have been interested.

As far as that game, that is basically impossible to touch at current numbers when you factor everything in. The earliest numbers were quite soft though, imo.
Click to expand...

I am not sure that LSU is a backdoor cover team either. I mean, on these games around a 7 or more I like to ask myself whether they can backdoor the opponent when I want a dog. Not sure this team down 10 or 11 is the offense I want with 7 minutes to go. The other problem I have, is that I think this LSU team is underachieving. The talent is there but they just have not gelled the way you mention Auburn has, and I agree they have. Hard game imo.
 
vk said:
Your idea of coming to town is to hit Mesquite ... which found unfortunate fame recently.
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Ha,

Still haven't been THERE. That was the cancelled trip,

But yes, in the wake of tragedy I gave the family some shit for that being their 2nd home.
 
10-7 is nothing to sneeze about when it comes to halftimes but having looked at several as you played them or post-game I think you have done relatively well there too. The right thought is there pretty much every time.
 
Ya there are a few of those that were definitely good plays that just didn't cash. Of course, two quarters means higher fluctuation, so I am more accepting of those fluctuations to the good and the bad.

For all my failings, I am pretty good at looking at the game dynamics and understanding how they will effect what happened first half, and decent at knowing which coaches tend to make adjustments and which don't, and what can be stopped via adjustments and what cannot, and what was bologna first half and what wasn't, and what the injury situation is that is different than kickoff, and all those little things that go into a halftime bet. I understand football and betting value and generally know what I am seeing (not always of course) and that is going to surface some in halftimes I think. It has always been a decent revenue stream for me. I don't even get to post them all for obvious reasons.

But ya, looking over the bets there aren't too many of those 17 that I posted that were bad bets and I will take 10-7 on the regular. I am greedy but also realistic when it comes to results.

Just seems like the last few years there are too many games where I am just way off about what is going to happen. I don't necessarily mean the games I invest in either. Games I pass on as well. I guess the new pace creates greater volatility but it is a bit scarier to invest in these kids now.
 
By the way, I appreciate the mini write-up on that Texas State/ULM total. It didn't hit but it gave me the background I needed to make a more informed decision about the play I was looking at.

I was most impressed ULM came out throwing early (18-83 running 1st half, most in 2nd qtr and 41-156 overall) to set up some running. This definitely added to their scoring 'potential' in the first half. Nothing you can do there, definitely never saw 433 through the air from them.

I am glad you stuck with on the 2h play there.

And I still say Memphis 2nd half under was a bad beat. But I am stubborn.


Okay, :shake: this week.
 
B.A.R. said:
By the way, I appreciate the mini write-up on that Texas State/ULM total. It didn't hit but it gave me the background I needed to make a more informed decision about the play I was looking at.

I was most impressed ULM came out throwing early (18-83 running 1st half, most in 2nd qtr and 41-156 overall) to set up some running. This definitely added to their scoring 'potential' in the first half. Nothing you can do there, definitely never saw 433 through the air from them.

I am glad you stuck with on the 2h play there.

And I still say Memphis 2nd half under was a bad beat. But I am stubborn.


Okay, :shake: this week.
Click to expand...

Like the Memphis game .. that one looked hard to lose half way through the third qtr and then it became sweat city. Could see ULM settling in on defense second qtr after the fast tex st start on offense. The writing was on the wall for the game total about five minutes into the game. I actually laughed out loud (for real) as it happened knowing I put extra time into capping that game. I actually got hopeful (eternal optimist? cough cough) about halfway through the third when no one had scored and tex st had the ball right where i want them to have the ball. But then they fumbled. Then it quickly became an "Oh God, no" for the 2h. That was a game that raised my blood pressure. The ncsu/ville game was the one that raised it the most this week. 0-0 first qtr ... impossible. The pinning of the offenses deep in their own end all half. Missed extra pt to lose by a pt .. damn that game.
 
I don't know you except over the internet vk, but it does seem to me that your posts and thread are a bit more somber this year as opposed to past years. That being said, you are always willing to share your thoughts on games and provide excellent insight into any game when folks request your thoughts. I've always considered your thread and bull's thread "must reads" on the board every week during the college football season. You've alluded to some "off the court" issues in your threads, and I respect your privacy on that. Plus we're all getting older and that makes a difference in how we approach this hobby. Still, I'm always glad to find you here every football season, the board wouldn't be the same without you.
 
Jovial in general...while focusing on the negative game to game. My buddy Tom and I actually thought you might quit after week 1 when we had dinner with you...you eere quite doom and gloom that particular evening.
 
Something I have noticed...

Last year especially it seemed like these 45-44 kinda games had brought you to the edge of quitting college football.

This year, I can tell you still 'hate it' but have more of an acceptance so-to-speak.
 
vk said:
There are several of you who post on CTG who I text with quite a bit on Saturday's during football, and over the years ... would you guys say that I tend to focus on the negative or the positive? And is it a close contest between the two?

And for those of you that have met me and spent time with me, would you say I am generally happy/jovial or not?
Click to expand...

you're better this year than years past. I think a little more defense is being played this year, so that helps.
 
Adds

Vols -2.5
Georgia Tech +7 -120
NMSU -7 -120

Totals
Texas State/ULL Under 58
Uconn/temple over 61.5
Texas Tech/WVU Over 79
EMU/Army under 45
Rutgers/Illy over 48
Akron/Wmich under 58
NIU/Buff over 49
NW/Terps over 50
Navy/Memphis under 75
Houston/Tulsa under 64
UTSA/UNT Under 58.5
TOSU/Neb Under 56.5 (Like this a little more if Bryant is a go)
CSU/Nev over 64.5
Washington/Zona St Under 60.5
 
Passing on the other side leans.

That is most likely it for this week other than halftimes.

Good luck to all.
 
I'm pretty much a New Mexico State fanboy. Georgia Southern is just awful, they've totally been ruined by Summers. One of our CTG friends was telling us about it last year and this year just shows again that they haven't rebounded and are still spiraling downward. Having said that, worry a little bit about the road fav role for NMSt. 3rd straight week of travel, not sure what their option prep has been.

Question for you, I have not looked. WR Scott was injured last week. I think he is an important player for them, do we know his status?
 
Upgraded to probable this morning per donbest.

A different option at unm and dare I say a better one? ... 37 for 176 at 4.8 and includes a 61 yard scamper. So 36 for 115 at 3.2 a carry for the other 36.

They play vs the option every year so I would imagine they are well versed.
 
vk said:
Upgraded to probable this morning per donbest.

A different option at unm and dare I say a better one? ... 37 for 176 at 4.8 and includes a 61 yard scamper. So 36 for 115 at 3.2 a carry for the other 36.

They play vs the option every year so I would imagine they are well versed.
Click to expand...

D'oh, how could I have forgotten the NM game this...and every year!
 
I think you are looking at an average but balanced ULL team offensively and below average to bad defensive unit in Texas State, particularly from a yards per play perspective but a team that is capable at times of looking decent vs the run. And I think you are looking at a relatively bad Texas State offense that leans on the running game against a relatively bad but maybe misleadingly horrible defense statistically with ULL. ULL coming off their best defensive performance on the road at Idaho last week. I think Texas State should be able to move the ball some on ULL but I think you can never count on them for a lot of points and they will be missing one of their two key running backs this week. And ULL is starting their backup this week, and while I am sure that Texas State was handpicked by the coach to make this move, that could potentially pose an issue for the ULL offense. Like I said, Texas State has, at times, been decent against the run and ULL at times has struggled with pass protect. So if the Bobcats can force the ULL QB to beat them, by forcing enough third downs, I think they have a shot at holding them to the twenties. I also think that with the backup in there, the ull pace slows down some. Additionally, I think Texas State is better equipped to slow down the opposing offense when they are just running the clock out unlike a lot of terrible teams that are always super vulnerable to the late score while the opponent is running the clock out. I also think that ULL has been insanely efficient in the red zone and at some point that doesn't keep happening, and what better time for that regression to the mean than when they make a change at starting QB. Texas State is likely the worst offense that ULL will have faced, and coming off their best defensive game. I am hoping it is the type of game where Texas State eats some clock driving just across midfield and punting and forcing ULL to go the length without making mistakes with Nunez. BTW,I am not saying Nunez is a bad QB. I have seen him and he isn't but he does tend to look vulnerable to the sack which can be a drive killer.
 
ksimpsc said:
Guarantano has been worse than Dormandy by all indications so far. The offense is not doing much but I am sure it could get worse.
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Dormady 6 inteceptions, Guarantano none so far. If the freshman can limit the turnovers, he could make UT's O a bit better
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Dormady 6 inteceptions, Guarantano none so far. If the freshman can limit the turnovers, he could make UT's O a bit better
Click to expand...
Guarantano has 12 comp on 24 att this year the majority of those coming in the UMass and UGA games that you referenced. USC (13) v Tenn (104) in TO margin. Freshman actually going full game reps is risky. It could go very well or it could snowball against.
 
ksimpsc said:
Guarantano has 12 comp on 24 att this year the majority of those coming in the UMass and UGA games that you referenced. USC (13) v Tenn (104) in TO margin. Freshman actually going full game reps is risky. It could go very well or it could snowball against.
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If they don't run it 40+ times i'll be dumbfounded. Short passing to stretch the field with less risk and runs
 
booksbestfriend said:
This is Butch Jones your discussing. Why he hasn't run the ball 40 times a game, since losing his best 2 receivers, has me dumbfounded.
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Meh against a thinned SC linebacking corps supporting a still pretty anemic line in what should be a close game the opportunity to run run run has to be perfect. If Butch doesn't run 40 times I will send him a very angry tweet.
 
The s bama troy game. ....don't let anyone tell you it is easy to figure these kids out one week to the next
 
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