time to post my week 7 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
week 1 17-15
week 2 13-7
week 3 16-17
week 4 10-16
week 5 15-8
week 6 17-15
overall 88-78

Locked In:

App St/ULL Under 49 winner 1-0
109/110 Memphis/Tulane under 53.5 winner 2-0
113 SDSU -17 loser 2-1
111/112 missSt/byu under 58 winner 3-1
146 Oklahomo -13.5 (++) 4-1
146/147 kstate/oklahomo Under 59 5-1
164 GT -10.5 6-1
153/154 Pitt/uva under 61 (+) 6-2 sorry timh
117/118 emu/ohio under 57 7-2
157/158 afa/unm under 57 7-3
139 North Carolina 7 8-3
147/148 nebraska/indiana under 57.5 9-3
143/144 northwestern/michigan st over 42 10-3
122 Buffalo 10.5 11-3
175/176 bama/vols under 57.5 11-4
115/116 wmich/akron under 73.5 12-4
159/160 Tulsa/houston over 71.5 12-5
194 Notre Dame -3 12-6
129/130 temple/ucf under 53 (+) 13-6
195 Ohio State -11 13-7
205/206 utah/orst under 41.5 14-7
169 UtsA -3.5 14-8
209 unlv 9 15-8
137 Iowa State 14 15-9

 
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I've been really disappointed with ULL on offense. Assuming that continues, they won't contribute too much too the total. Good luck on it.
 
Unfortunately, I won't be able to get down on anything else until thursday night. good luck all

mrob - ya looks like he might not go.

s--k - don't think either team rates to do better than average at doing what they like to do most when they have the ball.
 
s--k said:
I've been really disappointed with ULL on offense. Assuming that continues, they won't contribute too much too the total. Good luck on it.
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ULL has scored 31, 39, 28 and 30 their last 4 games. You're disappointed in this production?
 
Didn't realize 4 OTs but when 30+ points are on the board regardless of opponents it's hard to gauge disappointment. I don't follow ULL at all so was just curious regarding their ineptitude on offense.
 
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wiseplayer said:
Didn't realize 4 OTs but when 30+ points are on the board regardless of opponents it's hard to gauge disappointment. I don't follow ULL at all so was just curious regarding their ineptitude on offense.
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My criticism is was primarily focused on QB Jennings, who didn't arrive until the summer after transferring from LSU and it was not an immediate success...and actually may not be a success at any point this year. He was benched last game, but is starting again now due to injury. The OL pass protection hasn't looked great, but maybe Jennings is holding onto the ball too long resulting in more pressure than there otherwise would've been? McGuire is good as always, but he can only do so much.

So they just haven't looked great on O. I had an over 6.5 win total on them so perhaps I was being harder on them because I needed them to play better than they have and am disappointed in what I've seen given what I'd hoped I would've seen. But Jennings wasn't good at LSU either, lesser competition here doesn't seem to help.
 
Adds

109/110 Memphis/Tulane under 53.5
113 SDSU -17
111/112 missSt/byu under 58
146 Oklahomo -13.5 (++)
146/147 kstate/oklahomo Under 59
164 GT -10.5
153/154 Pitt/uva under 61 (+)
117/118 emu/ohio under 57
157/158 afa/unm under 57
139 North Carolina 7
147/148 nebraska/indiana under 57.5
143/144 northwestern/michigan st over 42
122 Buffalo 10.5
175/176 bama/vols under 57.5
115/116 wmich/akron under 73.5
159/160 Tulsa/houston over 71.5
194 Notre Dame -3
129/130 temple/ucf under 53 (+)
195 Ohio State -11
205/206 utah/orst under 41.5
169 UtsA -3.5
209 unlv
 
Interested in thoughts on Pitt/UVA under and Tulsa/Hou over if you have time Kyle. BOL on the week!
 
Metal- Thanks as always.

Wise - Just think this is a horrible match up for the Fresno State defense. They have struggled defending the run all year.

Nebraska 292 who averages 234 (plus 58)
Toledo 318 who averages 219 (plus 99)
Tulsa 336 who averages 230 (plus 106)
UNLV 364 who averages 246 (plus 118)
Nevada 226 who averages 186 (plus 44)
SDSU averages 237 a game and I suspect Donnel Pomphrey exceeds 200 yards in this game. I also think the SDSU defense has finally settled in. They had the one horrible defensive game against California but have otherwise played solid ..particularly the last few weeks where they gave up just 368 to niu who has exploded recently (granted qb difference for niu since they played), 331 to S bama; 79 of which came on one play, and 122 to unlv. Seems like the type of game that just snowballs on fresno st unless they get some big plays in the passing game.
 
bull said:
What do you like re Buffalo, VK
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I have a general non-belief in Ball State which is a good place to start. Outplayed ga st week one by more than the ten pts they won by but since that time, haven't shown me all that much other than winning the line of scrimmage against cmich. They were beaten by far worse than the final score against indiana where they lost by just ten after indiana called off the dogs and ball st wont he fourth 17-0, they were down late to fau 24-27 and needed to stop fau on fourth and 1 at the ball st 30 to have a shot at winning. They did it. They then went 70 yards on their last drive of the game to win by 4. That would have been FAU's lone fbs win. They gave NIU their lone win of the year week before last (NIU has improved a lot over the course of the year imo) and as I said, I am ok with how they played against cmich in defeat. Hogue and Lacanaria are both playing from what I have read but they are banged up. And while Buffalo is a pig, there is atleast a little lipstick we can put on them in that their defense is somewhat average which is a big deal against a ball state team that is average on offense. I mean they give up less yards per play and less yards per game than ball state. Obviously the buffalo defense is not just a concern but just horrible. But their offense started to show some signs of life in the passing game last week against kent st. This is probably their most winnable game until the finale at bowling green and who knows if bg has it put together by then.

From a spot perspective, ball state hasn't had a bye (and depending on how you want to look at sat to tuesday games, they don't have a bye all year either) and this game sits in the middle of a double decker sandwich with niu cmich before and akron wmich after. Seems like a bad spot for them.

I just think this is too many on the road for a crappy team to be laying.
 
Timh said:
Interested in thoughts on Pitt/UVA under and Tulsa/Hou over if you have time Kyle. BOL on the week!
Click to expand...

Pitt/UVA under - To start with, I have Pitt on my 25 slowest paced teams list and UVA is average paced so we get to start from a point of being well below 61 that is posted before we get to the match ups. Pitt has used a lot formation to trick opponents in the running game. The plays are pretty standard but unprepared teams have been caught out of position. I like that the UVA defense has had a bye week to prepare for that. These two teams combined for 711 yards in last years game. I think that both the offense efficiency and the defense lack of efficiency for Pitt games just cannot continue. The scores are incredibly skewed from the product on the field .. psu game 81 pts on 832 yards, unc game 73 pts on 892 yards, marshall game had 70 pts on 876 yards and last week we saw 71 pts on 778 yards. Basically, there are no wasted opportunities in Pitt games so far this year. I believe those results have skewed the number that I get to fire at here. Both teams have some defensive backfield attrition but if Pitt is throwing to expose the uva attrition, it likely means that things are going well for the total. UVA probably can exploit Pitt in the passing game and if they focus on that it could hurt the pace numbers I am expecting but even then we are talking about a high number here. Just see a low # of possessions for two teams familiar with eachother and none of their contests have even remotely sniffed reaching this type of number.
 
Quick comment on Jennings.

The problem he is having right now in the ULL passing game is that he is too slow to make his decision and is holding the ball too long. I think if he made quicker decisions and trusted himself a little more that they could improve their passing game. The other issue is that they are completely horizontal as a team right now. Hand offs and WR screens. App State was loading up the first 7 yards of the line of scrimmage, forcing third and long and then punishing ULL with pass rush on the throwing down. They need to expand the defense vertically to open all that other stuff up.
 
I will be adding ISU later today. I really don't like the spot for ISU but these two teams are pretty even right now.

I have to get to work.

Best of luck all.
 
clowncar said:
Quick comment on Jennings.

The problem he is having right now in the ULL passing game is that he is too slow to make his decision and is holding the ball too long. I think if he made quicker decisions and trusted himself a little more that they could improve their passing game. The other issue is that they are completely horizontal as a team right now. Hand offs and WR screens. App State was loading up the first 7 yards of the line of scrimmage, forcing third and long and then punishing ULL with pass rush on the throwing down. They need to expand the defense vertically to open all that other stuff up.
Click to expand...

I had Jennings U19 completions. Finished 19/32. I want to petition the statisticians that surely at least a few of those "passes" were laterals. I oly watched the 2H but I can't recall seeing him throw a pass 10 yards downfield and I saw probably 8 in the 2H that were at or behind the LOS. Incredible to think here is yet another guy that LSU staff improperly evaluated at the QB position.
 
Crimson, 1st drive of 2nd half he did an underhanded shuffle that looked like a fumble but was called incomplete somehow. He's just not a good QB
 
clowncar said:
Pitt/UVA under - To start with, I have Pitt on my 25 slowest paced teams list and UVA is average paced so we get to start from a point of being well below 61 that is posted before we get to the match ups. Pitt has used a lot formation to trick opponents in the running game. The plays are pretty standard but unprepared teams have been caught out of position. I like that the UVA defense has had a bye week to prepare for that. These two teams combined for 711 yards in last years game. I think that both the offense efficiency and the defense lack of efficiency for Pitt games just cannot continue. The scores are incredibly skewed from the product on the field .. psu game 81 pts on 832 yards, unc game 73 pts on 892 yards, marshall game had 70 pts on 876 yards and last week we saw 71 pts on 778 yards. Basically, there are no wasted opportunities in Pitt games so far this year. I believe those results have skewed the number that I get to fire at here. Both teams have some defensive backfield attrition but if Pitt is throwing to expose the uva attrition, it likely means that things are going well for the total. UVA probably can exploit Pitt in the passing game and if they focus on that it could hurt the pace numbers I am expecting but even then we are talking about a high number here. Just see a low # of possessions for two teams familiar with eachother and none of their contests have even remotely sniffed reaching this type of number.
Click to expand...
Thank you sir, this is one I was contemplating but am concerned about both pass defenses being susceptible. I like your point about UVA having extra time to prepare here, which should be helpful and I would figure Pitt to try and establish the run first. I did have this projected about at 148 plays or so but am hoping UVA defense shows up and is able to stop the run here.
 
Thanks VK. I see from your post this is more of a fade Ball than an endorsement of Buff, and I agree. I won on Ball games last two weeks ( loss to NIU - Improving, I agree) and on Ball against CMU. On the other side , my one play on Buff was against BC and I faded and won against Albany and Kent. So that places me in an anti Buff mentality. But in the final analysis, you know I like the dogs and especially home dog getting a score and a half. Pretty sure I will join you here.
I have dots beside the 'heels and GT, but UTSA ?? this crazy season you look at the two teams vs So Miss and I'm ready to give a zillion - but that's not the way things are panning out this year. At any rate, I am having trouble, but casting all that aside, doesn't one have togo with UTSA here?
GL bull
 
CrimsonK said:
I had Jennings U19 completions. Finished 19/32. I want to petition the statisticians that surely at least a few of those "passes" were laterals. I oly watched the 2H but I can't recall seeing him throw a pass 10 yards downfield and I saw probably 8 in the 2H that were at or behind the LOS. Incredible to think here is yet another guy that LSU staff improperly evaluated at the QB position.
Click to expand...

I don't think it is all him. He has potential in my opinion but needs to grow into it .. not sure if he is a slow thinker or whether he is thinking too much or if there just weren't any open guys in the game I got to watch him perform (another option that I hadn't mentioned before). I also get ULL staying horizontal in the context of the number of sacks they were taking. Some of that was bad oline v dline matchup but some of it was him holding it too long. If he is a slow thinker, then he has no shot but if he is just overthinking, or is scared to throw into tight windows, then I think he could be ok. Looks like the below the head tools are there to work with but I had a very small sampled look at the dude to base this all off of.
 
Timh said:
Thank you sir, this is one I was contemplating but am concerned about both pass defenses being susceptible. I like your point about UVA having extra time to prepare here, which should be helpful and I would figure Pitt to try and establish the run first. I did have this projected about at 148 plays or so but am hoping UVA defense shows up and is able to stop the run here.
Click to expand...

Yup .. the pass defenses (injuries) are definitely the concern for this game. UVA run defense is mildly inconsistent and maybe slightly above average after accounting for competition?
 
bluedevilboy said:
What does the (+) and (++) mean?
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The plus sign are games i like more than the rest... a minus sign would indicate i like a little less than the rest. For me it is meaningless as I bet them the same amount but it helps me not have to answer the "which of these do you like the best" every week.
 
bull said:
Thanks VK. I see from your post this is more of a fade Ball than an endorsement of Buff, and I agree. I won on Ball games last two weeks ( loss to NIU - Improving, I agree) and on Ball against CMU. On the other side , my one play on Buff was against BC and I faded and won against Albany and Kent. So that places me in an anti Buff mentality. But in the final analysis, you know I like the dogs and especially home dog getting a score and a half. Pretty sure I will join you here.
I have dots beside the 'heels and GT, but UTSA ?? this crazy season you look at the two teams vs So Miss and I'm ready to give a zillion - but that's not the way things are panning out this year. At any rate, I am having trouble, but casting all that aside, doesn't one have togo with UTSA here?
GL bull
Click to expand...

I think if you actually just look at ALL of the Rice games, you will find they just flat out stink.

Wky - 291 for 649 against = minus 358
Baylor - 265 for 638 against = minus 373
Army - 289 for 414 against = minus 125
UNT - 491 for 439 against = plus 52
usm - 346 for 697 against = minus 351

I am no mathematician but that is a lot of yards to the bad and they have had some deceiving final scores which have largely benefited them too which creates this number. It is rather unfortunate that UTSA crushed usm last week or who knows what we might have gotten for this game... not to mention I had usm and was toast mid-1st.

Just straight fade of Rice and if they can keep pulling covers out of their rumps, I will pay to see it. I suppose they are off a bye and UTSA off a feeling good about themselves game so the spot isn't the best... if you want a reason for rice ....
 
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Play2win said:
Sucks for me that you like Oklahoma that much (++). GL on the action this week, CC.
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Well if it helps you, I have a very bad record fading them.

With that said ... they are getting a lot of respect ... check out the following stats ...

stanford 335 for 272 against. Seemed super impressive at the time but now we know the Stanford offensive line is a shell of its former self and they are 122nd in total offense and have been held under 300 yards two more times since then ...including by washington state.

fau 495 for 211 against. Cannot knock them for that effort. But again ... 115th in total offense.

wvu 286 for 422 against. WVU 16th in offense.

kst 335 for 592 against (and won! And should have covered two scores in doing so!) Texas Tech ranked second in offense.

Now you have to roll into Norman and compete with Sooners who woodshedded (don king word, work with me) them in their own house 55-0 when kstate had a better football team by quite a bit compared to the 2016 version.

I will take my chances. Oklahoma a good front running team too.
 
tee*dub said:
:popcorn:
Click to expand...

Lots of concerns mostly revolving around spot.

Back to back close game heartbreak losses for isu
back to back road game
major revenge (most negatively talked about 2015 game by the fanbase ... at least the fans i know).

I also fear Texas just running it down the clones throat the way baylor did.

But ISU has played Texas well the last few years and know they can compete here and they have a coach i think that can get them motivated.

Backdoor should be wide open.
 
check out line movement on my action using pinny as standard

emu ohio down to 56 for a pt of value

buffalo still getting 10.5 ... trust me, they are hard to back but i suspect that goes to 10 or 9.5 by kick.

isu is still 14 but it is actually higher at other shops .. I think by the time i got home and posted that one it had moved up.

unc down to 6,5 ... moved off key number

nw msu at 41.5 ... i am actually confident i have value .. could always be a shitshow though

ou down to 13 and total down to 58.... if kst gets midtwenties so be it

neb indy down to 56.5 (neb getting tempting on the drop)

tulsa houston up what is likely a meaningless amount

pitt uva up to 62.

afa unm down to 56 ..... last years game one of the strangest of the season

GT still at 10.5 .. good sign

utsa still at 3.5

bama vols still at the same spot .. good week for bama to slow it down with saban complaining about pace and how it relates to injury. reaching for any help as i have lost some faith this pans out

wmich akron moved down what is likely a meaningless amount

ndame still minus three in the Cascade Disappointment Bowl

temple ucf down a half pt

tosu down to 10.5 .. every half pt matters and that is a somewhat key one

orst utah down a half pt ..... need weather or that one is toast.

unlv took some moulah.

so not bad but not that good.
 
That game is too tough for me because I have seen so little of both teams wise. But ...

Umass QB Comis doubtful for the game. Not sure there is a big drop off to Ford or not (again haven't seen a ton of them) as his stats are better (opponents) but they have no depth so if he goes down umass in loads of trouble.
Both teams are in the average area when it comes to pace
weather perfect
Most likely scenario is latech up early. This leads to umass passing. Latech has struggled defensively vs the pass this season
latech well rested after thursday game (big win) but this is ugly travel so coming out flat is possible

beyond that .... I would just be talkng out of my rump if I gave a real personal opinion on that game. Of note is that Umass has taken money and the over has taken money and it is a low bet game. So I would assume that a few people who are smarter than I am have determined that Umass is going to be able to score a little on latech. Looks on the surface to be lined and totaled about right to me.

Sorry I couldn't be more helpful on that game.
 
timh the tulsa houston over is a result of just expecting a ton of plays. houston should get chunk plays and that will make tulsa fall behind and go at warp speed.
 
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