After a week of Doggy domination it was not surprising to me that there appears to be more value with favorites this week than in any prior week. A quick glance at some of the games I have targeted here and I will have write ups on as many of my actual plays as time permits me.
Rutgers -3 -- I think a lot of Rutgers performance last week can be attributed to looking ahead to this revenge game. Cincinnati has been playing pretty decent ball but when you look at their slate of opponents, you can see why they have had success. Rutgers playing at home , at night , in a huge huge revenge spot off a straight up home loss. love the spot. At no point this entire season have I had Cincinnati power rated higher than Rutgers ... only -3. Write up later in the week hopefully
Mississippi -12.5 -- Third consecutive road game for LT , who has possibly been the worst road team the last few years. Somewhat of a sandwich game for Mississippi but I doubt teams like the rebels really look ahead too much. Orgeron (job security) needs the win and will take no prisoners here. Athletes on Rebel offense will put up major points. LT didn't score a td last week at fresno st .. will need several to come close to covering this. Write up later in the week hopefully.
S Carolina -3.5 -- I love this line. Kentucky scores a late td at home on a blown coverage to beat an average lousiville team, then gets a huge fumble return for a td at end of first half vs arkansas and rallies late despite being outplayed most of that game for another straight up win. They have yet to play a single team with an above average secondary or total defense. They are going to play at south Carolina at night on national television. South Carolina while lucky to cover at LSU were not dominated by the tigers by any stretch. When did Kentucky become a favorite over S carolina on a neutral field ?? That is what this line implies. Not jumping on this bandwagon for this game. Spurrier vs Brooks to boot. I will be playing the gamecocks this week , hoping to find a -3 before weeks end.
Penn State -7.5 -- Penn State returns home and I look for a woodshed effort in this game. Iowa plays poorly vs a bad n illinois team , loses outright to an atrocious iowa state team, slaughters a terrible syracuse team , loses at wisconsin , and gets crushed at home by indiana ( though a slightly deceiving score ). I know a lot of folks won't want to trust the Nittany Lions after the past two road games ... but they are a deifferent team at home ... and how can you trust Iowa ? Is the question I would ask. Terrible match up for Hawkeyes too. Again , hopefully get you a write up on this one later in the week too. Definitely playing, hoping for a -7 somewhere that I have money.
Mississippi State -16.5 --- Hmmmm Tulsa -23 ..... MSU -16.5 ........ since when is Tulsa a TD better than MSU vs a patsy ??? UAB can stop no one and unlike Tulsa , MSU should give UAB offensive attack fits. Another situation where the coach really needs the win and should go out of his way to be sure it isn't a threat to record a bad loss. Need to check a few details still on this game but it sure looks promising.
UNLV +6 -- Air Force has revenge in mind after losing in a scorefest at Sam Boyd Stadium last year ( I was in attendance :tiphat: ). Air force still relies heavily on the run and UNLV defense has been very strong against the run. Both teams are off to a good start in conference play and I look for one of those very hard fought battles that could result in either team winning but neither team winning big. UNLV finally sees a defense that they might be able to get pass attack healthy against. I think getting the 6 points is a value. Air force also off of loss to rival Navy. Strong lean at this point , if line moves down as I expect it will ... it might fall into the talk me offs section.
CSU -13 -- Pretty damn good winless team at home finally vs a non top ten team. SDSU is a bad football team and CSU controls this game from start to finish I think. Concerns about where this football teams heads are at and need to examine more closely how effective improved sdsu offense can perform in this one before I lay this many. Hope to get some good insight from jpicks thread later in the week.
Purdue +6.5 -- To be honest I know there is no chance I really play this unless I get 7.5. Purdue at home is not an easy beast to blow out and I think Purdue can have more success moving the ball on buckeyes than any previous team this year. The problem is that Ohio State can run the hell out of the ball and Boilermaker rush defense is more than a little bit suspect. On the one hand I have a good passing attack for a backdoor offensive td , on the other hand OSU could score a bonus TD at the end when they are just trying to run out the game clock. Haven't looked at other threads much yet , but i am sure this game will get a long look from a lot of folks and I will be reading intently to learn as much as possible from the Big Ten folks. slight lean... and I disfavor betting against Tressel
NCSTATE +17.5 -- Seems like a lot of points for a bad offense to cover in a conference game. Wolfpack is abysmal though and how can I trust them to score anything vs seminoles on the road when they struggled to score much vs louisville at home who has less defense than France.
Illinois -3 -- I am not a believer in Wisconsin. Tough road test for them and their defense has been anything but what most expected coming into the year. Illinois is improving every week and gaining confidence every week. They are much faster than the badgers and Wisconsin cannot dominate the DL of Illinois. With that said, Illinois was probably outplayed by penn state last week in victory and Zook VS Bielema is not a favorable one for Illini. Not finished looking at this game and again it is one of the games that will likely get a lot of attention in the forum. Very slight lean and teetering on falling of my talk me offs already.
Missouri -6.5 -- I have ZERO reason to believe that the Corn can stop this attack from the tigers. I also have little faith in Missouri defense to stop the corn , though to a lesser extent. Was not impressed with Corn road game at Wake though USC was on deck ..... but throw in blowout at home at hands of trojans , almost losing at home SU to Ball State and a less than inspired effort at home to Iowa State and I have to begin thinking that i had this team a bit overrated to start the year. They seem a little deflated and Missouri seems hungry. Damn , if someone could convince me that I could trust the Tiger defense just a little bit and I would make this play.
Bosie State -22 -- They should score at will. Will nmsu score enough to keep it within this number ??? will boise be looking past this game after aggies performance vs ark pine bluff ?? The number when Boise is at home always looks a tad high to me ... and they always cover it. giving this one consideration but I am not a fan of laying this many points, period.
