Basically think some of the ULM pace numbers and game pt outcomes have been dictated by opponents (Memphis and ULL) and then you throw in a very deceiving 51 points off 341 yards performance and you get a skewed output. I realize the Memphis defense was healthier week 1 and I believe that game was played in the rain, but I thought their offense did not look particularly good there either, despite some third down successes against the blitz. Texas State averaging 284 yards per game and Monroe just 423. Monroe is run first but Texas State rush defense has been steady as she goes so far this year with only one game where they got rolled. They held Colorado to 91 at 2.22 ypc and app st to 116 yards at 4.0 per carry and wyoming to 84 yards at 2.4 per carry. So I think they can do a decent job here against the ULM running attack. And the Texas State defense has held its own despite the incredible offensive woes and I think Texas State can move it some here on ULM but probably won't be going up and down the field. Usually good for an under when the dog can generate some first downs and make the favorite drive the field. Clock should be ticking most of the way. Monroe offensive line is a little banged up heading into the game and the Texas State WR group is as well. I think all of those players play but I don't think either team is healthy on the offensive side.
And the Wyoming pts vs Texas State were garbage .. Interception return TD, Fumble return TD and kickoff return TD mixed in with their other output for 45 pts. So I think those two deceiving last results give us a higher number to go after. I know it was totaled higher earlier in the week as well.
That's it ... think Texas State can defend the run ok which is what ulm prefers to do, and think Texas State can run it enough on ULM to generate some less than optimal field position for ULM, and I think ULM pace numbers are skewed for having played Memphis and ULL.