time to post my week 6 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Teasers 1-0
ML Dogs 1-0 (small price)
Sides 40-27
Halftimes 9-4
Totals 24-29
Overall 75-60

Lost a lot of respect for Fuentes as a HFC this past weekend.


Locked In

Sides:
West Virginia 14.5 winner
Miami Fl -3 winner
Colorado State -7 -120 winner
Nebraska 11.5 loser lol
Arizona 7 winner
Penn State -13 winner
Illinois 17.5 loser
Washington State -2.5 winner
California 28.5 loser
6-3 46-30



Totals
Ville/NCSU over 65 loser
Duke/UVA over 54 loser
West Virginia/TCU over 72.5 loser
NMSU/App St over 54 winner
VT/Boston College over 47 loser
Wmich/Buffalo under 50.5 loser
Ball st/Akron under 51.5 winner
Illinois/Iowa Over 42 winner
Marshall/Charlotte over 51 loser
Army/Rice over 46.5 winner
USM/UTSA under 50 loser
ULM/Texas St under 55 loser
4-8, 28-37
Halftimes
Memphis/uconn under 40.5 loser
ulm/tex st under 31.5 winner
Mich -7 push
Haw -3 loser
Haw/nev over 31.5 loser
1-3, 10-7
 
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West Virginia 14.5
Miami Fl -3
Colorado State -7 -120
Nebraska 11.5
Arizona 7




Totals
Ville/NCSU over 65
Duke/UVA over 54
West Virginia/TCU over 72.5
NMSU/App St over 54
VT/Boston College over 47
Wmich/Buffalo under 50.5
Ball st/Akron under 51.5
 
Arizona will all those injuries? Sorry for talking bad about your play, I have a ton of respect for you just surprised you are running out to bet that team with all the injuries.
 
in&out said:
Arizona will all those injuries? Sorry for talking bad about your play, I have a ton of respect for you just surprised you are running out to bet that team with all the injuries.
Click to expand...

I must have missed something. Could you elaborate for me. Looks like they are getting healthier to me when compared to the prior game against Utah. So I think I am probably just unaware of the new injuries. I think the QB situation for this week will be interesting for them. I don't have a ton of respect for the Colorado offensive side of the ball.

But the only injuries I know about are ones that existed, and were worse (Denson, Hayes, Nunley and Miller), for the game prior to Utah and the Bye, so I probably have just made a mistake.
 
I'm on West Virginia and Miami. My line for Colorado St. is -9. Thinking of playing it med:large
 
On the 'canes as well-
The line stinks-
Should be 6-7 imo
Only thing that bothers me otherwise, it might be a load up game for me....
Canes O should score in the 20s
Not sure how noles get there
Their O is struggling and canes D is solid

Talk me out of loading up on canes
 
Also
Looking back
Seems like this is the kind of game Richt wins-
Never could close it out, with better teams at UGA, but always showed up for this kind of scrap-
 
Canes QB is the concern for me with Miami. He made an incredible number of bad decisions and plays against Duke. If he does that here, they are in big trouble. The thing is ... at a certain point, FSU is not underachieving, this is just who they are. They went through the motions with Wake Forest. Maybe rivalry game gets them interested or the home fans do ... but I just think one team is buying in right now and the other has already seen their season goals sort of wiped out.
 
vk said:
Canes QB is the concern for me with Miami. He made an incredible number of bad decisions and plays against Duke. If he does that here, they are in big trouble. The thing is ... at a certain point, FSU is not underachieving, this is just who they are. They went through the motions with Wake Forest. Maybe rivalry game gets them interested or the home fans do ... but I just think one team is buying in right now and the other has already seen their season goals sort of wiped out.
Click to expand...
I totally agree. And also would u play Colorado state st -9? I really like them
 
Sure on CSU. I thought Utah State was by far the lesser team against BYU prior to QB injury. Nuff said
 
vk said:
Sure on CSU. I thought Utah State was by far the lesser team against BYU prior to QB injury. Nuff said
Click to expand...
I totally agree with you. Also wanted to grab Colorado st. At -9 before it goes up more
 
vk said:
Canes QB is the concern for me with Miami. He made an incredible number of bad decisions and plays against Duke. If he does that here, they are in big trouble. The thing is ... at a certain point, FSU is not underachieving, this is just who they are. They went through the motions with Wake Forest. Maybe rivalry game gets them interested or the home fans do ... but I just think one team is buying in right now and the other has already seen their season goals sort of wiped out.
Click to expand...
Agree-
Not thrilled with Rosier, but think he can get it done-not sure noles can keep up-
 
Would you play WVU at under 14?

Also wondering, how have your results compared to playing the early openers vs waiting?

I get some really good lines but also totally whiff on at least 1-2 per week and they move away from me and it's frustrating. I'm wondering if I need to just get better or if that's just the cost of doing business with the early lines.
 
AliShaheed said:
Would you play WVU at under 14?

Also wondering, how have your results compared to playing the early openers vs waiting?

I get some really good lines but also totally whiff on at least 1-2 per week and they move away from me and it's frustrating. I'm wondering if I need to just get better or if that's just the cost of doing business with the early lines.
Click to expand...


It's costing me money. More from games that I can no longer play because they got hammered than from games that I play that hit at better numbers than I got where I lose (like wmich/ball total last week).

I have a few go the wrong way too. But overall, hitting openers would be better for me. I really don't want to discuss that too much in here on a personal level. I will just say in general that if you are making good numbers, betting openers or the GOY stuff like you see CK doing, are the way to go. I readily admit my process is horrible right now, I just don't want to discuss my personal betting process that much right now because i am being a hypocrite of a sort when it comes to my motivations for not doing it.
 
tuck321 said:
BYU and San Jose State?
Click to expand...

The utah state opponents. They both have major issues, don't they? I am not 100% sure what you are asking or stating there but feel free to elaborate. I assume you are pointing out their competition level on victories has been pretty bad.
 
For personal reasons, I certainly hope their banged up oline stays banged up enough, Frank
 
vk said:
I must have missed something. Could you elaborate for me. Looks like they are getting healthier to me when compared to the prior game against Utah. So I think I am probably just unaware of the new injuries. I think the QB situation for this week will be interesting for them. I don't have a ton of respect for the Colorado offensive side of the ball.

But the only injuries I know about are ones that existed, and were worse (Denson, Hayes, Nunley and Miller), for the game prior to Utah and the Bye, so I probably have just made a mistake.
Click to expand...

You still like Arizona? Leaning that way too amigo. I think they can follow the Washington blueprint and run down their throats, but yea injuries...? I don't think you made a mistake, did you?
 
I looked around some and didn't see anything new on the injury front, at least to the negative. But I don't always have the full injury news. Sometimes people know something I don't on that front. I have less time and desire to dig into the practice reports and so of each team. Watched the Rich Rod presser though and not much of interest. Should be an interesting game. If colorado could come around offensively, they would be an ok little team with a solid defense. But that QB just looks awful to me.
 
Good luck this week, sir.
Nothing looks exciting to me this week.
Ags ML being the only sure thing.
 
vk said:
It's costing me money. More from games that I can no longer play because they got hammered than from games that I play that hit at better numbers than I got where I lose (like wmich/ball total last week).

I have a few go the wrong way too. But overall, hitting openers would be better for me. I really don't want to discuss that too much in here on a personal level. I will just say in general that if you are making good numbers, betting openers or the GOY stuff like you see CK doing, are the way to go. I readily admit my process is horrible right now, I just don't want to discuss my personal betting process that much right now because i am being a hypocrite of a sort when it comes to my motivations for not doing it.
Click to expand...
What you mean bro?

Don't want to discuss personal betting process?
 
twinkie13 said:
What you mean bro?

Don't want to discuss personal betting process?
Click to expand...

Ya. It would insult a bunch of people and I am being a hypocrite anyway. I like how you focused on the one thing I didn't want to discuss to ask about though. Thanks, Twinks.
 
vk said:
Ya. It would insult a bunch of people and I am being a hypocrite anyway. I like how you focused on the one thing I didn't want to discuss to ask about though. Thanks, Twinks.
Click to expand...

I'm not being a dick dude, but why even bring it up? I focused on it because it just seems weird to mention the way you did in your post......so I'm curious

Why would it insult anyone? You are your own man. Being a hypocrite? You can do whatever you want.

Who gives a fuck?

Unless you are posting plays with the intention to lose knowing many people respect you for years on this forum, I don't see anything you could be doing that would be hypocritical

Are you still involved in a service? You are usually pretty straight up dude......just found it weird the way you posted

You can PM me if you like but I feel I internet know you enough to ask.....

I like you, so if I offended you, I guess I'm sorry
 
I was asked a question by someone else and felt obligated to say that my current methodology is not what anyone else should be striving for. I do post to help people and I have posted in the past and shown by example the way you can make decent money by being prepared, attacking openers and getting the best of the line. I am currently not practicing what I preach, but even worse, one of the main reasons I am not practicing what I preach involves not doing something that I am doing anyway to a degree. So I felt it was important to answer so that I am not running anyone down the wrong road with regards to approach/process. I got a private message about this too. If I focus too much on it, I will lose what remaining joy I get from handicapping. If people want to learn better practices, I suggest looking at what guys like CK, Garfather, D$, Cubsker and the like are still doing. Since I am not, I feel some level of obligation to mention that my current way is dumb as #$%^. I am quite proud of my gambling career, and I am quite proud of my cfb posting at this site for the last decade or whatever it is, even though for full disclosure sports investing is by far the least profitable (cough cough) of all forms of gambling I have engaged in throughout my life. So ya, when you have spent your time as a professional and then start approaching a form of gambling like a moron, it is gonna make for a touchy subject.

I wanted to make a simple sacrifice to prove something to myself and I didn't do it completely, but did it enough to prevent me from betting openers. So I get the worst of both worlds ... no opening numbers and no self-respect for doing what I think should.

Sorry I snapped at you a little bit ... you know I have nothing but love for you ... but I currently have to deal with losing a bet like the ballst/Wmich total that would have been a winner had I been utilizing intelligent betting practices that I have advocated for years. And I have to feel bad about myself too, for not making the complete sacrifice that I intended. So it is a subject I have to avoid for my personal happiness if I can until I either start betting smart again or actually make the sacrifice completely. It is interesting having the shoe on the other foot, where I look at Gar, Cubsker, D$ and CK numbers and have both the good feeling of knowing my friends got their money in good (and that these are people that I get to interact with about a sport that I love and the handicapping game that I love) and also the jealousy and self-hate at having worse numbers. On the bright side, I am having a very, very good season anyway.

I hope that helps answer any and all questions about it.
 
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or to put simply, the game for a handicapper is to beat the closing line, the game result itself is far more random. Meaning, having a great season doesn't change the fact that it is more likely good fluctuation than it is great EV. I am still beating the closing line, even betting late in most games, so it isn't like i think I am operating at negative EV.... I just am not living up to a good standard when it comes to betting practices and my normal value vs the close (I should and know how to get greater EV and am not).
 
vk said:
I was asked a question by someone else and felt obligated to say that my current methodology is not what anyone else should be striving for. I do post to help people and I have posted in the past and shown by example the way you can make decent money by being prepared, attacking openers and getting the best of the line. I am currently not practicing what I preach, but even worse, one of the main reasons I am not practicing what I preach involves not doing something that I am doing anyway to a degree. So I felt it was important to answer so that I am not running anyone down the wrong road with regards to approach/process. I got a private message about this too. If I focus too much on it, I will lose what remaining joy I get from handicapping. If people want to learn better practices, I suggest looking at what guys like CK, Garfather, D$, Cubsker and the like are still doing. Since I am not, I feel some level of obligation to mention that my current way is dumb as #$%^. I am quite proud of my gambling career, and I am quite proud of my cfb posting at this site for the last decade or whatever it is, even though for full disclosure sports investing is by far the least profitable (cough cough) of all forms of gambling I have engaged in throughout my life. So ya, when you have spent your time as a professional and then start approaching a form of gambling like a moron, it is gonna make for a touchy subject.

I wanted to make a simple sacrifice to prove something to myself and I didn't do it completely, but did it enough to prevent me from betting openers. So I get the worst of both worlds ... no opening numbers and no self-respect for doing what I think should.

Sorry I snapped at you a little bit ... you know I have nothing but love for you ... but I currently have to deal with losing a bet like the ballst/Wmich total that would have been a winner had I been utilizing intelligent betting practices that I have advocated for years. And I have to feel bad about myself too, for not making the complete sacrifice that I intended. So it is a subject I have to avoid for my personal happiness if I can until I either start betting smart again or actually make the sacrifice completely. It is interesting having the shoe on the other foot, where I look at Gar, Cubsker, D$ and CK numbers and have both the good feeling of knowing my friends got their money in good (and that these are people that I get to interact with about a sport that I love and the handicapping game that I love) and also the jealousy and self-hate at having worse numbers. On the bright side, I am having a very, very good season anyway.

I hope that helps answer any and all questions about it.
Click to expand...

All good.....I kinda like seeing you just be a regular degen and not sharp hehehe

I kid VK.....


GL this season

And there is no question, doing like CK does and the others is the way.......
 
vk said:
or to put simply, the game for a handicapper is to beat the closing line, the game result itself is far more random. Meaning, having a great season doesn't change the fact that it is more likely good fluctuation than it is great EV. I am still beating the closing line, even betting late in most games, so it isn't like i think I am operating at negative EV.... I just am not living up to a good standard when it comes to betting practices and my normal value vs the close (I should and know how to get greater EV and am not).
Click to expand...
You have a real job? Like a square?
 
ADD

Penn State -13
Illinois 17.5
Washington State -2.5
California 28.5

Illinois/Iowa Over 42
Marshall/Charlotte over 51
Army/Rice over 46.5
USM/UTSA under 50
 
Like it. I hit live 89.5 in game. Had to try it at the pace this has been going. Lol
 
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