time to post my week 6 card so far

i wouldn't be confident either if i played defense.

RE: press I think Malik is the rock star of the team and his side of the ball has been terrible and i don't think he's made much of an impact despite all the love he gets. Seems like he floats around or is a spy on every play and hasn't produced in that role

He made such a big deal out of dissing A&M for Texas , you would hope he could show it on the field.
These kids get scholarships for the fact everyone(and themselves) believe they can play football, not their wit on social media.

Between all of you Texas alum/backers , however the season goes, does beating 0U provide the salve for any wound?
And which of you have sat on the side of I-35 and waved as all the Okla plates are heading north?
 
Beating OU is big. But it was big last year and then we went to Ames and got rolled by Iowa State for god's sake. Iowa State. I guess we have some hope that Strong is "taking over" the defense but what does that then do to the abysmal game management that he's supposed to be focusing on? Does it get better when he has to dole it out to a student GA? I dunno.
 
I don't think their QB situation does them any favors. Using him on 3rd and 2 or on the goal line is one thing, but sometimes they just randomly put him in there for a couple plays. Then it's 3rd and 8 and here comes Buechele. That's a recipe for disaster as it was last week when he threw a godawful INT returned to the Texas 1 yd line.
 
try the kamikaze approach. neb did this callahan's last year vs texas. defense had been godawful getting shredded by basically anyone with a pulse. came out against jamal charles and co and blitzed literally every play. worked for 3 qtrs against greg davis.

until 275 yards from Jamaal in the 4q, IIRC while shitfaced in the south endzone
 
I don't think their QB situation does them any favors. Using him on 3rd and 2 or on the goal line is one thing, but sometimes they just randomly put him in there for a couple plays. Then it's 3rd and 8 and here comes Buechele. That's a recipe for disaster as it was last week when he threw a godawful INT returned to the Texas 1 yd line.

think he's hurt. More than whispers about it @Cal and then made a couple really bad throws @OSU, the one you mentioned and another should-have-been-picked throw in the end zone that an OSU DB somehow dropped. Not sure that Swoopes has thrown this year, which should make every team play 100% run until he shows we have the confidence to do it. Think that comes this weekend on a 3rd and goal, but that also happened last year so maybe that's why i see it

He made such a big deal out of dissing A&M for Texas , you would hope he could show it on the field.
These kids get scholarships for the fact everyone(and themselves) believe they can play football, not their wit on social media.

Between all of you Texas alum/backers , however the season goes, does beating 0U provide the salve for any wound?
And which of you have sat on the side of I-35 and waved as all the Okla plates are heading north?

not being a native texan makes me think i'm missing something on that last sentence, but if i'm not then no i have not done that exact thing lol

RE: this weekend, I want to win cuz i'm gonna be in the house and we lose almost every game i go to since i graduated, but i think it just kicks the pail down the road. It'd essentially save his job until the next disaster that comes (hopefully not ISU next weekend as Frank mentioned)
 
not being a native texan makes me think i'm missing something on that last sentence, but if i'm not then no i have not done that exact thing lol

There's a spot , we'll just say between Sanger and Gainesville, that 'horns sit on the fence and wave at the north bound traffic. They even have that big blow up longhorn that looks like they're selling used cars. Traffic backs up for miles. You have Sooners hanging out the window flipping the double bird and shouting obscenities. Maybe a 'horn owns that parcel, but they're there every year, win or lose.

I only see it because I'm headed south, leaving the Okla Casinos.
It's a hoot. The wife is going up to the Indian land Saturday with her family. I'll ask her to video it.
 
There's a spot , we'll just say between Sanger and Gainesville, that 'horns sit on the fence and wave at the north bound traffic. They even have that big blow up longhorn that looks like they're selling used cars. Traffic backs up for miles. You have Sooners hanging out the window flipping the double bird and shouting obscenities. Maybe a 'horn owns that parcel, but they're there every year, win or lose.

Lulz. Lived all my life in Austin, graduated from UT and grew up around a lot of them. Have never heard this. Wish I had sooner. (pardon that)
 
Lulz. Lived all my life in Austin, graduated from UT and grew up around a lot of them. Have never heard this. Wish I had sooner. (pardon that)

Compared to north TX, I'd rather be your way. Lake LBJ would be just about right.

Sorry to highjack your thread, VK. I knew this was where the cool kids would hang, though(and gps thread).
 
They seemed terrified to let him throw over the middle. Cal figured that out in the 2h and i assume okie lite did too.
 
I haven't actually watched Wyoming play yet this year but in looking at it looks like a nice spot on paper for a low scoring game. Anything I may be missing with them that may not just show up in standard metrics/box scores?


To an extent I watched them vs Neb, EM and CSU, or atleast I was in and out of watching them. The Nebraska game was close for most of the game and just got out of hand in the 4th quarter.

I was looking at WYO, not sure on the total.

One thing that concerned me with that in mind was how EM ran the ball on the. EM has a veteran OL and has some things clicking this year, but I did not expect them to allow 239 and 5y a pop in that one. But interestingly AF hasn't been great on the ground vs the likes of Utah St and Navy. 2015 AF ran for 299 and 5ypc vs WYO which was about avg for them except for when they faced the really really shitty Ds. In 2014, game two of Craig Bohl in Larmie, AF only ran for 151 and under 3 ypc. Somehow WYO did a good job vs the Nebraska run game.

But watching the WYO games the biggest take away for me is that Josh Allen is pretty volatile, like either boom or bust. At times watching him I've thought how good they can look with his legs and arm...and then he throws to the other team like it is cool. Him and WR Gentry have a nice thing. Gentry is pretty good. WYO O is better off this year compared to last, Allen is definitely more of a playmaker at QB than they've had in a few years. They still run Hill a bunch and will continue to do so, but they are letting Allen wing it around.

WYO D has been pretty good, definitely better than last year. AF D is really good.

I guess I see it similar to the AF - Utah St game, with WYO having more offensive potential than Utah St had in that one. That line was 4.5-6 depending when you got it...here it is 10, but I'm not sure that Utah St would beat Wyoming, we'll see that November 6th. But anyway I think WYO can make AF work and earn their yards and pts and WYO O should be good enough to stay in the game throughout...the key being Allen throwing it to his guys and not the AF defenders. I could see both teams getting into the 20s, or one in the upper teens and the other in the upper 20s so that leaves me unsure of the total right now.
 
I watched most of the Wyo/Col St game last week and I gotta say I was pretty impressed with Wyo. I expected them to fold when they were down 14-3 on the road, but the team showed a lot of toughness coming back in that game. Thought the offense was pretty well balanced.
 
wyom running game has been a disappointment to me. They did absolutely nothing on Neb (overmatched, I guess, but Neb isn't that great) and did very little against EMU, which was a total shock to me. Big number against CSU, but CSU appears to be very bad.
 
Talking you out of Charlotte? They are the worst FBS team I have seen in years. They actually have a fairly decent power running game and a hybrid type QB that can wildcat some yardage, but that defense is a joke. It may be worst than some of the defenses I've seen from ODU over the years. But, the issue is Charlotte keeps trying to play up tempo and throwing the ball, which further exposes that defense. Now, if they completely switched character and played ball control and ran with Phillips/Johnson, there is a possibility of a cover, but I see no evidence to support them trying to do so. That passing attack is offensive.
 
Have yourself another good week,VK. Not much in common with you- - terps, cincy, herd, that's about it.
 
Mostly did a decent job on the numbers I got earlier in the week. I had a hard time with the totals this week, particularly with what appears to be over-adjustment for the weather concerns for the games that will actually go off. A lot of the totals that I liked got beat into the ground because of the weather and now I would prefer the over on some of them if I knew the weather would be ok. Anyway ..

ADDS

SMU/Tulsa over 65.5
Akron -7 -120
Northern Illinois 20
GT/Pitt under 50.5
Minnesota 1.5
Kansas State -8
Purdue/Illinois over 53.5
Oklahoma -11
FSU/Miami under 65 (-)
Texas St/Ga St over 62
vols/tamu under 57
Marshall/UNT over 64
FIU/UTEP over 48
Ark/Bama under 49.5
unlv/sdsu under 54
haw/sjsu under 64.5
Charlotte 14
 
VK...Interested in hearing more on the OU pick. Sounds like Buechele and Foreman are both about 75%, the latter maybe a bit less. Those 2 guys are slowed and you lose a lot of ability to capitalize on OU's crap defense. We already know where our defense is.
 
I feel like I've seen worse UT teams beat better OU teams...2015....2013? I think they keep it close
 
mrob, tru, everyone .. thanks. I have basically been awake 38 of the last 40 hours due to travel problems and work. I watched the Tulsa game, cubs game and a few plays of the clemson game. I would not call that relaxing either.

I went through the Texas games and came to several conclusions. 1. I bumped them too much off of the notre dame game. 2. i had them with a rating too high before the season started. 3. They are struggling so far this year with this type of spread attack 4. This is a revenge game for OU and a needed game for OU. 5. There will actually be some Texas fans hoping that the horns get blown out 5. You can't fix tackling in a week. Demoting a DC and taking over the defense a week before OU seems problematic. 6. Bad match up game for the 18 wheeler offense. 7. Not really factoring in Foreman given depth, even without Warren3, at the position, think Beuchele is close enough to 100% that he should operate to norm, but I am concerned about the WR's as they are going to have to come up big for Texas to compete. 8. Lots of plays has consequences. One of the consequences is the attrition Texas is suffering. You play more plays, you get more injuries. It isn't rocket science. Also, playing lots of plays is a great strategy when you are the better team but not the greatest strategy when you are the lesser team.

Quite frankly, I think Oklahoma absolutely puts it on Texas in a very bad way.

Charlotte sucks. I agree with Dollaz on that point. However, they have also been involved in some deceiving scores in my opinion ( I admit I have seen very little of them with my own eyes). Last week against Old Dom, they were deserved losers. But the 52-17 score is a bit misleading. They were outgained by 127 yards and both teams had 22 first downs. Monarchs dominant in yards per play differential though. So they were beat soundly but not THAT soundly. They lost to Temple 48 - 20 but were outgained by just 78 yards. EMich beat them 37 - 19 but outgained them by just 1 yard. And I think I can forgive them the ville beating. So they are getting crushed on the scoreboard far worse than on the field imo. Statistically there isn't too much separating these two teams .. basically gaining the same amount per play (charlotte skewed from crushing cupcake but even lowering that a little they are comparable) and charlotte gaining more yards per game, and FAU defense 117th in the nation so while over a half yard per play better than Charlotte, we are not talking world beaters here. I just don't think FAU should be laying two TD's to this team right now. I am ok with backdoor potential of the offense and opposing defense if need be too.
 
Lind, if you have my number still, give me a text on Sunday if you get a free minute. Thanks.
 
I like the Gtech unders especially after watching how slow they are offensively. Any thoughts on Uconn unders?
 
OU looked like they threw the game last year. Decided to never bet on this game again as there has been a lot of strange outcomes over the years.
 
Ali it did look fixed last year. Problem with this one being fixed against ou is three fold ...1. Line movement almost always moves towards the fixed result 2. Ou boosters want to win. 3. Some Texas boosters want to lose.

A fix here would almost certainly be in ou favor
 
fwiw I have two bets on uga, I assume the first one will be canceled. second one at a better number but i will grade in this thread on the original posted 7.

I will get to grading later .... suffice it to say there are not many good bets, bad results from yesterday .. it was basically a lot of good bets and a lot of bad bets. Mostly getting what I deserved. Though I feel unfortunate with the 0-0 fourth qtr in ga st texas st game.
 
Good call on Charlotte. Im very fortunate my bet was cancelled and I forgot about it. No clue who there new QB was.
 
If Jacob Eason were even a mediocre QB at this point in his career you'd be up 28-0 at the break
 
Hes playing bad, but why has jorja even attempted to pass. Theyve stalled at least a coupkd of drives unnecessarily
 
Hes playing bad, but why has jorja even attempted to pass. Theyve stalled at least a coupkd of drives unnecessarily

I can see why theyve at least tried to pass a bit in the 2H cause everyone's in the box as they should be but agree with you Chaney's playcalling has been awful and I don't hate him like a lot of people I know do
 
I went 17-15 for a tiny profit this week. With that said, I have rarely felt that I made more terrible bets than this past weekend. I didn't lose games due to bad luck really, i was just way off. It was depressing being so wrong, it was frustrating given the amount of time I invested, and it was aggravating because I still simply cannot find data to support some of the results occurring even after knowing what my side didn't do well or what the other side did do well in the game. I pondered on several occasions why I bother capping, whether I have an edge, whether this is useful time I am spending. What made it especially tough was the morning games as I had 8 games going and at one point it looked like 0-8 was a distinct possibility. I think those went 2-6 but it set my mood for the day and I found myself being pretty negative. I was also exhausted from my week of work and travel. Anyway,,,,, time to eat crow again ...


Tulsa -16 (pinny close -16) - Late action came on SMU so while it moved to 17 it came back down late in the week. GRADE Dminus - Simply put, they played terrible compared to my expectation. The main problem for them all night was the penalties. They set or tied a school record with 17 penalties for 149 yards. So while they outgained smU by about 150 yards it was mitigated by those penalties. The yardage differential keeps me from giving this an F but SMU was in the game throughout and the teams appeared a little more even to my human eye than the stats showed. Minus 1 on the turnovers and also had a fg blocked to set up a smu score. Almost a yard more per rushing attempt and about a half yard better per passing attempt. So probably deserved to win in regulation but just never in it to cover the number and the backdoor would have been WIDE open with how they were defending the pass even had they taken that kind of lead.

Cinci -3.5 (pinny close -3 juiced) I couldn't believe this thing didn't close 4 or 4.5 but soon saw I was wrong and market was right. GRADE F - Bearcats blew some opportunities early and settled for three fg's and were up 9-0. The key series of plays of the game then happened ... up 9-0 and under a minute to go with first and ten at the cinci 45, Moore threw an interception and uconn had the ball at their own 41 with 40 or so seconds left in the half. They gave up a 59 yard td pass on the next play. I am not sure how that is even possible but they did it. So instead of 9-0 or better heading into halftime it was 9-7. Uconn dominated the second half along the line of scrimmage on both offense and defense in the second half and cinci couldn't find a way to score. There was a key missed call on a fumble but I don't think it really effected the spread bet. Obviously laying points and not scoring a single TD (against uconn, really tubs?) is something I generally consider a bad bet and this is qualifies. UCONN with a 412 317 yardage advantage. Bearcats just outplayed and outcoached.

Houston -18 (pinny close -15.5) I had a bad number on this all week and late money poured in on Navy. GRADE F ... what is interesting here is that I thought houston matched up really well against the option. Very strong defensive line play that would allow some linebackers with speed to disrupt the option and make plays. I was wrong. houston had a 484 to 382 yardage advantage in the game which isn't good enough to cover the game but probably means they should have won. The thing is ... they were being beat most of the day after taking a fast 7-0 lead. And so one of the worst Navy teams of the last few years scored their first win vs a top ten team since 1984. Bad DD favorite bet was sort of a theme for my week .. tulsa mentioned already. this game .. and more to come. I guess this outcome was very shocking to me both by power rating and by match up. In other words, my fear going into the game was laying a lot of pts against a team that eats up clock and shortens the game ... but that wasn't the problem here, they just didn't play well, didn't defend the option well, didn't manage the game well and were never a threat to cover the game.

Marshall -10 (Pinny close -13.5) GRADE F over 64 (pinny close 59.5) GRADE F- I wasn't alone in this mistake with the line move going 3.5 pts the direction I would want. I may have been alone in thinking it would go over as the total got hammered down game day. But the side and total were both wrong by a mile. UNT was better at both lines of scrimmage and just seemed sharper all day and seemed like they were playing harder all day. Marshall mustered just 14 offensive pts as they had a kick return td to start the second half. 458-271 yardage edge for unt ... marshall managed 13 yards on 28 carries in the game. I watched every play of this game and nothing appeared flukey. UNT just the better team this day (maybe just the better team and note they did play better than expected defense against mtsu the week prior). Score is an accurate reflection of the game. Another DD fave not even close to being the correct play.

more grading coming ....
 
continuing....

Arizona 9 (Pinny close 9.5) GRADE B - Arizona led 14-3 against an offensively challenged Utah squad. They outgained Utah 475 455. utah won first downs 23 21. Zona QB got re-injured in the third quarter. Arixona -3 in turnovers. Teams played basically dead even until the last ten minutes when I felt that Arizonas defense tired and they couldn't stop the Utah base running plays to get the ball back for backdoor cover opportunity. Would definitely bet this again having watched the game.

cmich -12 (pinny close 12.5) GRADE F - Ball State was better along the line of scrimmage than Cmich for a majority of the game. They got pressure on Rush and stopped the run. Cmich had 153 yards rushing on 37 carries but 52 of that came on a play late as they were running out the clock. The difference in the game was ball state committing two turnovers, one of which was returned for a TD. Yardage was 422 to 340 in favor of Cmich. I was worried about the health of Cmich but it appeared most of the important pieces played. Another dd fave performs like crap.

usm -16 (pinny close -17) GRADE F I suppose this was one of the more shocking results of the season. The game started with UTSA td, usm three and out, UTSA td, usm three and out, UTSA TD for a 21-0 UTSA lead and basically a lost spread bet in the first half of the first quarter. USM ended up winning the yardage battle 557 to 532 (did they really give up 532 to UTSA?). Roadrunners had a lot of big plays in the game and won the turnover battle 3-0. Another DD fave that performed badly. This is a game I re-capped after the result and just couldn't find a way to come up with this result.


GT/Pitt under 50.5 (pinny close 52) Grade B - I got about the worst number available all week. It opened a ridiculous 56 and was bet down immediately by smart money. It took money game day to get to 52. This was a game that I felt like I capped very well but neither team could make that third down stop at key moments in the game. The final score was 37-34 or three tds over the total I went under. Normally, that is not going to lead to a good grade. But here the game was different. There was only 778 total yards in the game which is indicative of an under at this number. But the majority of this play revolved around pace of play and I got that in a major way. In the first half,as the two teams combined for just 7 possessions in the first half. The problem was there were 7 scores in the first half!!! Unreal. There was one punt but it was counteracted by a kickoff return for a td. Sometimes you cap everything right on an under and it still goes over because of fluke plays. That wasn't the case here,,,, here it was capped right but when faced with third and long and two subpar passing games, they managed to make first downs, when faced with fourth downs they converted. When held to fg attempts, they made them (even the game winner went in off the post). I am not sure how many people here handicap totals on the regular but this game played out how an under bettor would want it to, other than almost every key play seeing the offense execute and the defense not. Not sure I am explaining it right ... but I am fine with this bet, how it was capped and I would play it again.

Minny 1.5 (pinny close they were the fave at -2.5) - Grade ...

Whoops work call .. be back later.
 
I know Marshall lost some productive players on defense, but I've been shocked just how bad that defense has been this year.
 
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