Time to post my week 5 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Finally had a winning week last week. I think the lines have tightened up in general this week as the linesmakers have caught up a bit I guess. Unfortunate as I was unable to capitalize on all of those value plays early. I did however find several plays this week that I do love. I am also breaking my rule of never betting more or less than five percent of a unit this week as I am betting a half unit on LSU. Laying this many is against my fundamentals but I could not avoid betting this game, hence just a half unit. Enjoy the plays below ( all CRIS/bookmaker )

Arizona -1
Northwestern +17 ( -120 hook )
Indiana +12.5
Fresno st -13
Akron +14
Memphis +4
LSU -39.5 ( 0.50 units)
Colgate -7 -115 ( 0.05 cfb units or 1.00 FCS units 57.50 to win 50.00 )
Georgia southern -11 (0.05 cfb units or 1 fcs unit 57.50 to win 50.00 )

Strong Leans :
none

Talk me Offs :

georgia -14
ULL +22.5
Penn State -3.5
 
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ok some quick thoughts on the plays this week so far.

Arizona -1 ----- Basically what I see here are two relatively even matched teams, though I have Arizona rated slightly higher. Wazzu has a slightly better offensive unit and Arizona a better defensive unit. Washington state just came off a demoralizing loss at USC and now has to travel all the way down to Arizona from washington. Arizona defeated this wazzu team up north last year and I made this game a 6.5 so this is like xmas in september , catching this number.

Northwestern +17 --- last time i looked , NW runs a spread offense. Michigan struggles defensively against the spread and this is an awful lot of points for the wolverines to be laying on the road given their offensive point production so far this year. Northwestern, was ill prepared for ohio state last week after a demoralzing loss in the "brain bowl" to Duke. They bounce back to competitiveness in this game and keep it close enough to cash the ticket. Again , I made this game mich -11 so seems like great value to my eyes.

Indiana +12.5 -- I have a decent amount of trust in Indianas ability to move the football. The only reason I believe Iowa can move the ball is because of Indianas defense. Can you really expect more than 27 from the Hawkeye offense ??? I think I can get 17 or more from Indiana. They keep it close enough and if not .... I atleast have a backdoor offense to rely on at the end. i made this 7.5. shrug.

Fresno st -13 --- I usually do not trust a team like fresno state to cover these types of numbers but they match up incredibly well with Louisiana Tech and they are battle tested. Second trip in three weeks to the west coast for LA TECH. Both teams coming off a bye, fresno is the more conventional so the extra week helps them more. A little early for the "fresno quit" . Made this 18.

Akron +14 ---- I made connecticut -9 for this affair. UCONN has not handled success well in the past. They are 0-5 SU after a SU conference win since joining the Big East. Akron sports a below average football team but an above average defense. I see a somewaht low scoring game with both teams doing a lot of running. Tick Tock , Tick Tock means I want the 14 points all the more.

Memphis +4 --- This is somewhat of a "lying eyes" value play. Memphis played decently in the season opener vs mississippi but was victimized by a lot of turnovers and lost by 2. After beating up a lower division team, the tigers traveled to ucf where they got stone cold hammered. Offense was unable to get into any rhythm and after the defense gave up a 17 or 18 play drive that lasted about 9 minutes in the first quarter, the defense was toast. Meanwhile , Ark state played decently vs texas , defeated a terrible smu team after smu smash the run gameplan was thrown into the trash after falling behind early. After that game Arky st went to Tennessee and again had a decent showing vs an SEC opponent. The last few games have given the memphis side incredible value in the line. think about it.... this game was to be played just a couple of weeks ago and memphis was a 3 - 3.5 point favorite. That was the line, with memphis coming off a rivalry loss and ARky state having their home opener. The game was delayed due to weather and now Memphis is catching the 4. Only now, memphis comes off an ass whooping. Memphis can throw the football and Arky state did not defend the pass well vs smu or at tennessee. Memphis might struggle to stop the arky state run attack but it has to look easier to them than stopping kevin smith last week. Value play on memphis +4 as two weeks of football ( memphis losing at ucf... ark st beating smu and losing at vols) have moved this line an entire TD, which is pretty ridiculous.

LSU -39.5 ---- Indoor game so I don't have to worry about weather destroying any chance of covering a huge number. Technically away but I have a strange feeling their will be more Tiger fans in the dome than green wave. LSU gave up the backdoor cover last week to south carolina and needs a woodshed game to get alumni money back as well as secure position in the polls. I have gone over final scores in my head and 38-3 , 35 -7 , 34-0 just don't seem big enough in this matchup. I made this game a 45.5 and I have never in my life laid a number this humongous. It is in fact against some fundamental principles that I use. It is probably the game I like most on paper but due to uniqueness of disobeying a fundamental, i only played this for a half unit

Lots of cats and tigers on my card. haha. week of the cat !
Obviously, i have not gone into detail as to the specific matchups which are the genesis of the lines that I make myself each week. Just some general thoughts that help make these plays that much better than even the line differential points to. Good luck this week.
 
Yup Gems , I forgot to mention that. Sutton is likely to play but there is the chance that he does not. Since I feel the line is way off, if sutton does not play I can play off the game with a likely middle opportunity. Guessing that the line moves downward. If not , I am stuck with a coin flip type scenario instead of a big value.
 
Kyle...gonna have to wish you health on WSU/UA this week...I think the Cougs will have more than enough for Arizona. Demoralizing loss...I don't think so, but that's just me. I'm still waiting for AZ to show me the great D they were supposed to have this year. I think the Cougs have circled this one for a while. You know you're going to lose to USC, so why not look forward to the next week when you can avenge a home loss as a 16pt fav from the year before.
 
vegaskyle said:
Memphis +4 --- This is somewhat of a "lying eyes" value play. Memphis played decently in the season opener vs mississippi but was victimized by a lot of turnovers and lost by 2. After beating up a lower division team, the tigers traveled to ucf where they got stone cold hammered. Offense was unable to get into any rhythm and after the defense gave up a 17 or 18 play drive that lasted about 9 minutes in the first quarter, the defense was toast. Meanwhile , Ark state played decently vs texas , defeated a terrible smu team after smu smash the run gameplan was thrown into the trash after falling behind early. After that game Arky st went to Tennessee and again had a decent showing vs an SEC opponent. The last few games have given the memphis side incredible value in the line. think about it.... this game was to be played just a couple of weeks ago and memphis was a 3 - 3.5 point favorite. That was the line, with memphis coming off a rivalry loss and ARky state having their home opener. The game was delayed due to weather and now Memphis is catching the 4. Only now, memphis comes off an ass whooping. Memphis can throw the football and Arky state did not defend the pass well vs smu or at tennessee. Memphis might struggle to stop the arky state run attack but it has to look easier to them than stopping kevin smith last week. Value play on memphis +4 as two weeks of football ( memphis losing at ucf... ark st beating smu and losing at vols) have moved this line an entire TD, which is pretty ridiculous..
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Alright I'm ready to debate. So after WK1, Memphis -3 was the line. I was looking at Arky St as a home dog there. Memphis lost a game they should of won at home vs. Ole Miss and Arky St lost on the road vs. Texas. The game is called in WK2. In WK3, Memphis beats Jacksonville St 35-14 at home before getting trashed by UCF on the road. Arky St beats SMU at home in Wk 3 in a game they dominated (10 more FD'S, 170more yards). They also overcame 13penalties for 130yards in that game. In Wk 4 they lose @ Tenn but they gave a respectable effort for an over-matched team on the road. Now that we got the season history out of the way...

Arky St has a very good RB in Arnold who averages 7.69ypc vs. tougher competition than Memphis. Memphis allowed Kevin Smith and company to rush for 313 yards at basically 6ypc. Their rush defense showed up vs. Ole Miss but has been nonexistent since.

Arky St has forced 5 interceptions this yr vs. some decent QB's in McCoy, Willis, Ainge.

Memphis QB Hankins has thrown 5 interceptions this yr but I will note, 4 came against Ole Miss.

There is no doubt in my mind, Memphis will get some yards through the air on Arky St but I also have little doubt in my mind that Arky St will run the ball down their throat.

Arky St = 19-8 at home under Steve Roberts
Memphis = 11-22 on the road under Tommy West

This is a revenge game for Memphis who lost by 3 at home to Arky St last yr after Arky St completed a 56yd hailmary with 6seconds left. Previous to that, Memphis had won 10 straight games.

I will admit, I am not in a rush to get down on Arky St-4 at the moment, I was looking for -3 or less in this game and taking the home team. Arky St should win the T.O.P and should be able to dictate the pace of the game with their rushing attack. I can see the Memphis defense wearing down as the game goes on. Memphis is going to be able to throw on Arky St but with that comes the risk of interceptions but also they have the quick strike ability to answer back. I think Arky St gained a lot more in their first 3 games by playing tougher competition than Memphis has.

I am also looking at the over in this game because at the end of the day, both defenses are giving up 400+ yards a game while both offenses are putting up over 400+ yards/game.


GL though, I will make a decision on this game prob by tomorrow.
 
Alright I'm ready to debate. So after WK1, Memphis -3 was the line. I was looking at Arky St as a home dog there. Memphis lost a game they should of won at home vs. Ole Miss and Arky St lost on the road vs. Texas. The game is called in WK2. In WK3, Memphis beats Jacksonville St 35-14 at home before getting trashed by UCF on the road. Arky St beats SMU at home in Wk 3 in a game they dominated (10 more FD'S, 170more yards). They also overcame 13penalties for 130yards in that game. In Wk 4 they lose @ Tenn but they gave a respectable effort for an over-matched team on the road. Now that we got the season history out of the way...

Arky St has a very good RB in Arnold who averages 7.69ypc vs. tougher competition than Memphis. Memphis allowed Kevin Smith and company to rush for 313 yards at basically 6ypc. Their rush defense showed up vs. Ole Miss but has been nonexistent since.

Arky St has forced 5 interceptions this yr vs. some decent QB's in McCoy, Willis, Ainge.

Memphis QB Hankins has thrown 5 interceptions this yr but I will note, 4 came against Ole Miss.

There is no doubt in my mind, Memphis will get some yards through the air on Arky St but I also have little doubt in my mind that Arky St will run the ball down their throat.

Arky St = 19-8 at home under Steve Roberts
Memphis = 11-22 on the road under Tommy West

This is a revenge game for Memphis who lost by 3 at home to Arky St last yr after Arky St completed a 56yd hailmary with 6seconds left. Previous to that, Memphis had won 10 straight games.

I will admit, I am not in a rush to get down on Arky St-4 at the moment, I was looking for -3 or less in this game and taking the home team. Arky St should win the T.O.P and should be able to dictate the pace of the game with their rushing attack. I can see the Memphis defense wearing down as the game goes on. Memphis is going to be able to throw on Arky St but with that comes the risk of interceptions but also they have the quick strike ability to answer back. I think Arky St gained a lot more in their first 3 games by playing tougher competition than Memphis has.

I am also looking at the over in this game because at the end of the day, both defenses are giving up 400+ yards a game while both offenses are putting up over 400+ yards/game.


GL though, I will make a decision on this game prob by tomorrow.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________
"Your money that short - Homeslice, why wage it? Don't bet - Check your bookie, I'm a high favorite"

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ETG , I am actually not in much disagreement with the facts you put forth above. I guess I just disagree as to where the value in the line is. It is always nice to point to games vs tough competition like Texas and Tennessee but while Arkansas state performed "well" they really weren't much of a threat to win either game. They played Texas right before showdown with TCU ( who knew tcu would struggle this much ? ) and tennessee right after the vols took a beatdown in the swamp. According to Rivals the better recruits by far are on the Memphis side of the field. Not a perfect science for sure ( see notre dame ) but athletically they are superior. I agree with you that Arkansas State can run with success on Memphis but disagree that they can control the tempo of the game. More than likely the early leader will determine the tempo. If Arkansas State gets ahead early the memphis passing game can still be a factor but if the tigers get ahead early and arkansas state has to revert to passing , i have less trust in the sophomore qb. Although , I do think Leonard is an above average sophomore qb. I wouldn't be suprised if Arkansas State won the game , hell I won't be suprised if they cover .... but to me the value in the line is clearly with Memphis. I would never take a number a td worse than it was two weeks prior ( for sure) without significant reason for the change ( usually an injury ).
Let me put it this way. Lets say that I only play games where I think the line is off by 3 or more points... the original line ( week2 ) of this game would have to be off ten points for there to be value on the arkansas state side.
The collapse of the memphis defense last week vs the run was four fold I think. 1.) UCF rush attack led by kevin smith is VERY formidable. 2.) They had a very long drive in the first half ... over 9 minutes that wore out the memphis defense. 3.) Memphis struggled early vs ucf defense creating quick possessions and placing a tired defense back on the field too quickly. 4.) Memphis size and scheme are vulnerable to the rush. As I said, i think the indians can rush for some yards on this memphis defense but in no way do I think they can dominate A LA ucf. Memphis WILL move the ball with success vs Arkansas State making for a more rested defense. As far as my plays go .. this one falls more into the category of my notre dame play last week ( which was a loser )...... in that it is more of a value play than a matchup play.
Just in my eyes ........ if someone likes Arkansas State this week , then they must have thought Arkansas State + 3.5 in week 2 was one of the best bets we will see the entire year.
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Made the mighty Aggies +21 to Utah ... so no value on either side of the line to me. Utah has been so inconsistent and hard to trust laying this many points. But after being shutdown completely at UNLV they may be hungry for the Awesome Aggies. Utah plays considerably better at home and utah state is no road giant. No value here ... and quite frankly, Utah is a team that I don't really have a feel for right now.
 
Fresno State -13 home to Louisiana Tech --- Ok there are so many reasons that I love this game and want to share some of those now. Due to the fact that both teams have bulldog mascots I have to use school names in every sentence, so apologize for repetitiveness. Lets start by looking at what each team has done this year so far as a point of reference, starting with LATECH.
LT defeated Central Arkansas in week 1and I give that game little regard as I consider Central Arkansas to be the last place team in FCS Southland Conference. In week 2 , LT hosted Hawaii in a game that LT desperately wanted. LT jumped on Hawaii quickly , scoring TD’s on their two opening drives building a 14-0 lead. Hawaii promptly tied the score and then after a Brennan fumble at the Hawaii 25 LT scored again to take the lead 21-14. In the second half Hawaii took the lead 28-24 ( continually moving the ball with ease on the LT defense ) before turning the ball over deep in their territory again … resulting in LT td and a 31-28 LT lead. Hawaii again drove down the field for a score to take a 35 - 31 lead but not long after the warriors turned it over again deep in their own territory. The result was another short field for LT and another td giving the bulldogs a 38-35 lead. They would give up a late field goal and eventually lose to Hawaii in OT. The quick start, coupled with Hawaii handing them the ball on a short field over and over and over again allowed LT to stay in the game. While there was never a point where LT was out of the game the stats show that Hawaii was clearly superior with 8 more FD and 183 more yards of offense than LT. Hawaii had to punt only twice in the entire game. LT gave up 593 yards of offense, almost all of which came through the air as they had the early lead and Hawaii had colt brennan. LT was balanced offensively with 187 yards through the air and 222 yards on the ground while piling up an impressive 410 total yards. LT then went out west to play California. This game was over by halftime as Cal had a 28-7 lead and never looked back on their way to a final score of 42-12. Cal had 7 more first downs than LT and out gained LT by a margin of 447 to 274. Cal had over 200 yards passing and rushing in this game. Against Cal’s less than stellar rush defense LT managed just 3.2 a carry on 38 attempts. Now lets look at Fresno state so far this year.

After defeating Sacramento state to start the year , Fresno went to TAMU. The game was decided in ot in a very strange finish , resulting in an Aggie win. TAMU started fast in this game. FSU was victimized by some turnovers in this game and early on they had a hard time defending the option attack of McGee , Lane and Goodson. They trailed at the half 19-0. They defended the run much better in the second half and came all the way back to force overtime before eventually losing by two. Fresno state showed a very balanced attack and Brandstater looked very poised and comfortable running the Fresno state offense. After this epic battle, fresno state had to travel to Oregon where they were not only outmatched but depleted from the TAMU game. They were demolished by Oregon while committing a lot of penalties , turning the ball over twice ( one fumble return for a td ) and yielding an 88 yard td run to Oregon stud rb Stewart. Fresno still managed 17 first downs vs. oregons 23 and gained 327 yards on the road in autzen. Considering the spot , the performance is not as bad as it looks if you just peer at the final score of 52-21.

So lets look at what LT likes to do offensively. They prefer to run the ball. They ran it 38 times to just 33 pass attempts in the CAL game despite trailing the whole way and they ran it 49 times vs. 36 pass attempts in the Hawaii game. At home they rushed for 4.6 a carry but on the road vs. a similar defense they rushed for just 3.2 a carry. They will try and run on fresno state. But fresno state, while they have struggled some vs. the run this year , has seen MUCH better rush attacks with tamu and Oregon. FSU sports the best defensive line in the WAC this year in my opinion and I think that will rear its head in this spot. I think LT will rush for some yards due to the number of times they run but I do not expect them to control the game in any fashion. They will have to throw to have success . I think they struggle doing that because they have my lowest rated WAC QB, OL and WR units. On the road, this team simply struggles to score the way they do at home.

So lets look at what Fresno state likes to do offensively. Fresno state is a pretty balanced team as they showed in their contest at TAMU but failed to show at. Oregon as they fell behind early and threw a lot. They averaged 363 yards of offense on the road vs. those two opponents and given what LT has given up on defense this year … you have to think Fresno State gets well over 400 yards at home against them. Brandstater is hitting over 61 percent of his throws and Calhoun at back up is also a decent player if Brandstater gets hurt or struggles. They have excellent balance and have quality at about every offensive position except RB. But their OL should have no problem generating holes vs. the LT defense and their ability to run or throw keeps LT guessing all game. I just can’t imagine a way that Fresno State does not put up a lot of points in this game.

So now lets look at other factors that may help each team. Both teams are coming off of a bye but LT has to travel back to the west coast for the second time in 14 days. The extra week of preparation should help the more conventional Fresno team than the less conventional LT team. Fresno state is coming off an ass whooping to boot , which I like with a decent team that has had to wait two weeks for some redemption. Also look at what LT has done on the road this year and last year:
2007
AT CAL 12-42
2006
At Nebraska 10 - 49
At TAMU 14 - 45
At Clemson 0-51
At boise st 14-55
At san jose st 10-44
At north texas 34 - 31 yay
At Hawaii 17 - 61
At new mexico state 23 - 50

Eight of their last nine road games they have lost by 27 points or more … the lone game of note was at North Texas ( nuff said). Hill has vowed to put more emphasis on conference games this year and he may want to show that in the conference opener. Must be a sucker bet with this fishy line and lots of action coming in on LT side. I’ll stick to what the stats and my eyes tell me … fresno state -13.
 
Certainly an air of confidence shown by their players in that article. I also think they are right that the extra time to prepare for the wierd memphis offense helps. I hope the memphis tigers have this article in their locker room. hehe. The one bright spot if I lose this bet is that atleast you will be cashing your ticket. Best of luck this week etg.
 
Arizona -1 home to Washington State -- What I see here is an absolute must home win for the Arizona Wildcats. The way their schedule breaks down, if they were to lose this game they will likely have zero wins vs. D1 opponents until they catch stanford at home on October 20. After this home game, the wildcats travel to Oregon state for a likely loss and then to USC for another likely loss. A loss in this home game would likely make them 0-6 vs. d1 heading into that October 20<SUP>th</SUP> match vs. the TREE. High expectations for this program this year and this is almost a super bowl game for mike stoops, as a loss here likely means his hot seat catches fire. Luckily for Stoops and company the match up looks promising on several levels.

Washington State traveled down to SoCAL last week where they took a drubbing from the Trojans. This is certainly nothing to be ashamed of as most teams that play usc this year will meet the same fate. Washington State is currently 2-2 with both losses to quality opponents ( Wisconsin and usc ) and both wins vs. bottom feeders ( Idaho and san diego state ). There offense has looked decent in most games this year. They had two 90 yard drives at Wisconsin to start the season but were held to just one more score the remainder of that game. They were out first downed 17 - 25 , out yardaged 328 to 486 and outscored 42 - 21. They managed to get well vs. a bad SDSU defense achieving an amazing 36 first downs and over 600 yards of total offense on their way to a 45 -17 crushing of the Aztecs. But the win was not without some glaring holes in the Wazzu defense. SDSU racked up 399 total yards of offense vs. the cougars. Washington State then had a tune up game vs. border rival Idaho before the contest with the Trojans. Washington State won the game 45 - 28 putting up 445 yards of total offense and again earning a whopping 31 first downs. They benefited from 5 Idaho turnovers in this game, though they gave it away three times themselves. The disturbing trend of defensive lapses continued as Idaho racked up 19 first downs and 325 yards of offense. Then the cougs went and played usc where they got annihilated 47 - 14. They managed just 247 yards of offense but the usc defense is pretty tough. Once again, the cougar defense gave up a whopping number of yards and scores , as the Trojans put up 47 on the scoreboard and 509 yards of offense. You can see the problem that Washington state is having…… the offense cannot afford to not score. The cougars are giving up 33.5 points per game, and 430 yards per game. It gets worse if you look at their road games. In their two road games ( granted we are talking Wisconsin and USC here) they gave up 497.5 yards a game and 44.5 points a game !!!!! Against a quality opponent, Washington State has shown an entirety of one half of competitive football so far.
Arizona has played two high quality opponents , one decent opponent and one laugher. Lets see how they have done. Arizona started out at BYU where they were manhandled by the cougars. It was their first game with their new look offense and it showed. They managed just 11 first downs for the game , just 7 points , and just 255 total yards. But this really doesn’t due the game justice. Arizonas lone td came on the final drive of the game with 53 seconds remaining. 5 of their 11 first downs came on this drive, as did 80 of their yards. Their offense was completely shut down by BYU. To the credit of the defense , despite no help from the offense they held BYU in provo to just 22 first downs and 392 yards. This is more impressive than it looks because , again , the Arizona offense provided no help .. No rest … nothing. Arizona went home licked their wounds and continued to work the kinks out of their sputtering offense. They got to fatten up on fcs Northern Arizona. They racked up 490 yards 30 first downs and held NA to 243 yards and 11 first downs. Nothing to brag about due to the opponent. Next up was New Mexico. Arizona lost the game 29-27 with the margin of victory being a safety on penalty in the end zone. It was a very competitive game through out. NM 24 FD AZ 25 ,,, NM 421 yards AZ 484 yards. Neither team could rush the ball at all as most of those yards all came through the air. 1-2 Arizona now had to travel to CAL and play a tough bears team. The wildcats lost this game 45-27 ( sorry Bob ) but the game was much closer than the score on the field, though CAL was in control of the scoreboard throughout. Both teams had 22 first downs , and CAL had a 421 - 330 yardage advantage , as well as a plus 2 turnover edge over Arizona ( including a fumble return for TD ). So the Arizona defense has allowed an average of 369 yards a game defensively and gained an average of 390 yards a game offensively to date. The new offense has looked better each and every week.

Tidbits
- This game is a revenge game for Washington State having lost to Arizona last year in Pullman by ten points. 17 -27.
-Arizona has out yardaged their opponents at home this year by an average of 155 yards a game.
- Washington State has been out yardaged on the road by an average of 210 yards a game.
- Washington State has lost its last 5 games SU to bcs conference schools.
- The 29 points scored at Arizona by New Mexico is a rarity. It is more points than any team scored vs. the Arizona defense all of last year. 9 returning starters to that defense. Last years home opponents were byu , usc , Washington , Oregon state , California and Arizona state.


What I see here is the same Arizona defense that held Washington State to 17 last year in Pullman, holding them down somewhat again at home in Arizona. Washington State has to travel a lengthy distance again this week to play in the heat of the desert. Arizona has an offense that has improved each and every week , while the cougars have shown no signs of improving defensively. Arizona has a better offense than when they faced Washington state a year ago. Alex Brink will get some yards through the air vs. the wildcats but tuitama and company should have no problem scoring on swiss cheese defense of Washington state. Which defense do you trust to make the needed stop in this game ?? That answer is easy. I think Arizona is the better team on a neutral field and laying 1 all I am asking them to do here is win the game at home. Outside of revenge and Alex Brink it is really really tough to make a case for Washington State in this game. Arizona -1 for the cash please.
 
That Akron play looks pretty damn good at 14, although I couldn't help but notice they are 0-10 since '93 coming off a win over Kent State (their rivals). And I think UConn may be playing with some confidence (although it's sorta artificial since they were outgained by Pitt and beat them), and may be on the verge of blasting weaker competition.

BOL regardless, I'll be rooting for Akron, and the rest of your plays...
 
Dmoney - :cheers:

was wondering if anyone had definitive news on whether sutton is playing this week. all indications that i have gotten through out the week say he is playing but I also thought he was playing vs ohio state last week. This line has not moved as I expected it to and it gives me pause as the middle opportunity i expected in the event of a sutton " no go" has not materialized. someone please reassure me that he is in fact starting this weekend for Northwestern.
 
Great writeups kyle,

I was looking at that fresno st/la tech game. Seems like the Techsters have played them well the last few years. I remember when FSU gave USC fits then the following week were demolished at home by La Tech. Huge revenge factor I am sure, may lay off after reading this though.
 
Renew :cheers:

Strange but my one real concern is that a lot of money flew in on LT. Would hardly call LATECH a public team.. Moves aren't always right though. I have confidence in a methodology that has worked for years and there is no reason to let that money influx deter me from what appears to be a value. They actually ahve played fresno tough the alst couple of years ... one of those games was after the usc quit job when they went on to lose to nevada and then latech ( love that they lost to latech at home too the alst time in this stadium). And last year they la tech scored a td late against fresno only to miss the go ahead PAT and then give up the late td to fresno. Still ... a seven point win for fresno last year on latech homefield equates to a larger win here. I actually kind of like the fact that fresno was involved in two close games the last few years with this team and the fact they come off an ass whooping at the hands of oregon. I cannot find any reason for them to be looking past latech and that would be the major concern in a game like this. fresno and Hill really need this win. Convincingly i think.
 
Good luck on your plays this week Vegas. I don't think I looked at most of those games but hope you win them all.

:cheers:
 
memphis +4 was a push. Demoralizing not only in that the tigers blew a 31-6 halftime lead but also because drbob pushed the line up on a game i had locked in ... and could have ended up getting a better number. Add this game to the following list of games i feel i should have won.

--houston +17 at oregon -- tied late third --lose
--Tcu at Air Force -- gone over this one ad nauseum -lose
--oregon state+12 @ Ariz st. -- 26-13 lead halfway thru third-push
--memphis +4 @ arky st-31-6 lead 8 minutes to go third quarter - push
-- colorado +14.5 @ ariz st -- 14-0 lead halfway thru 2nd qtr - lose

hard to find a lucky game that i have had this year to compete with those crushers. But hopefully that evens out in the end. Lets get them on saturday and grats to anyone who had arky state -3.5 or memphis +5.5.
 
vegaskyle said:
Made the mighty Aggies +21 to Utah ... so no value on either side of the line to me. Utah has been so inconsistent and hard to trust laying this many points. But after being shutdown completely at UNLV they may be hungry for the Awesome Aggies. Utah plays considerably better at home and utah state is no road giant. No value here ... and quite frankly, Utah is a team that I don't really have a feel for right now.
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Nobody has a clue about those clowns. I'm thinking about putting a 100 bucks on the +1400 for the Aggies ML and 110 on the spread. I really just think the UCLA game was one gigantic random event, but the Utes will have Brian Johnson back for the entire game this week which may or may not make a difference.


GL on the card this week Kyle.
 
Added Georgia Southern -11 today . basically tailing hoopsstar here. This is my second tail on fcs this year as i also tailed bull last week against lafayette. it cashed but i never posted saturday morning due to time constraints. a lot easier to tail when i am only betting to win 50 bucks hehe. look in hoopsstars thread for reasoning behind this play. i got by far the worst of the number but hopefully it doesnt matter too much. bol tomorrow gang. and tonight if you have action.
 
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