Let's recap and grade .. I have at least 3 F-Minus bets this week ... *ducks*....
Memphis/Navy 2H under Win Grade D - There are some things I got right with this bet .. .Part of the decision factored in that perry looked to be injured tail end of the first half and he CLEARLY was not 100% the second half and it derailed the Navy offense. The other thing that I got right was the pace of play but hard to give myself too much credit on that given it is an option football team half the time and that is the nature of the beast. Still there were shy of 60 second half plays I believe so pace was correct. However, the play got pretty lucky as I want to say it was sitting on 24 pts with 11 minutes to go or so and Brady White missed a guy a million yards open for a would be TD on a scoreless drive for Memphis. Memphis came out and was much better offensively second half. The halftimes are always harder to grade but sticking to my guns even though there are some things that I got right that played a key role.
SJSU/AFA Over Win Grade A - 25-24 first down edge for SJSU, 513 - 378 yardage edge for AFA. I want to say SJSU was stopped on downs 4 times on plays originating from the AFA 25 to 1 yard line in the game so a lot of points were left off the scoreboard as well. Heck AFA fumbled on second and goal from the SJSU 4. Not much to add here.
ASU/CAL Under 40 loser Grade B - Either last week or the week before I had Tulsa at a good number and remember typing that those tailing probably lost. This time, I had a really bad number and I lost while most people who might have been tailing won. This was hard to grade too because I was definitely a benefactor to an ingame injury to the Cal starting QB and there is a huge drop off to the backup Modster. My bet lost after an ASU TD late and then Cal failing to get a first down after going for it on fourth down, which left enough time for ASU to be stopped on a 3 and out and still be in FG range. Under bettors did benefit from a couple of missed FGs though too. 19 -13 fd edge for ASU, A total of just 610 yards flatters the handicapping with ASU holding a 365 to 245 advantage. As a general rule, it is pretty tough to lose an under bet with that level on production by the offenses. With that said, early TD's by both squads in both halves made the bet feel like an uphill climb all game and when you are going under a number this low in college football, you know there are going to be a few games where they just somehow find enough points. It's hard to go lower than a B here though based on the box score and based on the fact that I would bet this again having watched the game.
Northwestern +24 Grade B Over Grade FMINUS - Now this is going to seem like an odd grade for the NW side because one could argue they outplayed Wisconsin as a 4 score dog. The reason I am grading it this way is that part of my grading process is how I handicap the game itself. Meaning, there is no doubt that NW plus the 4 scores was the correct play as the game played out. Zero. But the game didn't play out like I expected at all. I knew this type of game was possible but I thought Wisconsin would be able to move the ball and score some and it would force NW to throw to some and I felt the Wisconsin secondary is a little more suspect than some think. But Wisconsin could do absolutely nothing on offense .. they converted a fourth down early for a TD and never scored another offensive TD all game. That hurts given the total was 1 TD short of cashing. Who would have guessed that????? NW failed to take advantage of Wisconsin targeting suspensions in the first half and then in the third quarter the Wisconsin defense sort of dominated the game. Wisconsin had two defensive scores, sack fumble recovery for TD and Interception return for TD, in the second half. Then NW was forced to throw and while some of it was garbage time, wisconsin did look vulnerable. Ready for some insane stats???? NW had a 21-13 first down edge, and a 255-243 yardage advantage. 498 total yards between them and as mentioned, a bunch of the NW yards were late and could potentially be considered garbage. Betting an over with less than 500 combined yards is just an awful bet and there were NOT missed opportunities like dropped passes or missed open receivers, the two defenses dominated. The key play for determining the outright winner was a dubious penalty on a long punt return by NW in the third quarter when they trailed 7-3. Instead of being in position to gain a few yards and be in FG range or to make a play with momentum from a starting point inside the Wiscy 40 they were backed up and then the sack, fumble, TD occurred. I thought the refs realized they blew that call and cost NW their chance at the game from that point and NW did benefit from a horrible noncall on pass interference later in the game. Pretty bad effort from the wiscy offense or a pretty great effort from the NW defense. That total was a really bad handicap because I just completely missed Wiscy not being able to score which allowed NW to stay in their shell.
Side note ... can someone explain to me what NW coach was doing with the two point tries?
More coming .....
