time to post my week 5 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Sides 35-19
Totals 22-27
Halftimes 9-3
Overall 66-49

Even a blind nut finds a good season once in awhile (or something like that). Pretty much crushing the sides and hafltimes so far, while the totals are still a bit of an anchor. Still, I would have killed a newborn by suffocating it with a dead puppy to have this good of a start when not working as hard to get down early.

locked In:

Miami Florida -5 winner
Nebraska -6.5 winner
BYU -3 loser
Pitt -20 winner
NcState -12.5 loser
Indiana 17 -115 loser
Uconn 19.5 loser
Kentucky -13.5 loser
Memphis 4 loser
VT 8 loser
CSU -7 winner
Northwestern 15/14.5 winners
Georgia -2/FSU -1.5 6 pt tease 1 to win 1 (grading this as a side play) winner
Colorado 7.5 winner
CSU -7 winner
Tulsa 8.5 Loser
7-8

Totals
Ohio/Umass Over 49.5 winner
Arizona State/Stanford Under 63.5 winner
Ball State/Wmich Under 54.5 loser
Ole Miss/Bama Under 59 loser
2-2

Halftimes
wmich/ballst under 24 loser
0-1

Strong leans:
Northern Illinois 12.5 (Playing most likely, just waiting to see if it moves up. I think it will) moved the other way and had to pass after it crossed the 11.
Tulsa 4 (I think they kind of suck but back to back weeks vs option attacks is an advantage. Easier to show player X his exact mistakes on film. slightly different versions of the option. Navy defense easier to attack than UNM I think. Just tough to pull this particular trigger) - adding closer to kickoff
Charlotte 12.5 moved the wrong way and had to pass after it crossed the 11
 
Last edited:
Miami Florida -5
Nebraska -6.5
BYU -3
Pitt -20
NcState -12.5
Indiana 17 -115
Uconn 19.5
Kentucky -13.5
Memphis 4
VT 8
CSU -7
 
I basically tailed you last week & best weekend this year for me

I think I've asked/commented before, but I have my own little watch on Texas teams and have made $$ on UTSA this year. Don't know if you have looked at them at all.
 
Stadium might be bouncing about a bit that game. I am also the rare person who thinks Clemson is overrated. The reason I think this is because they have had one true test and that was a perfect matchup against Louisville who has a bad defense and whose oline is really bad making that mismatch against the clemson front just too tough for Lamar to compete with. The Kent State game has now been proven to be meaningless when you look at their games since, the BC game is hardly impressive, and the last time they played a good defense they were at home and didn't manage to get 300 yards of offense.

Most of us dropped Clemson PR in the offseason noting the losses of personnel but we seem to be giving them an awful lot of credit for that ville game and that auburn game. The defense is awesome no doubt but they are going to have to prove some things on the road offensively against a real defense before I say they have completely reloaded on the offensive side of the ball. I think they lose, to be quite honest with you.
 
bones said:
I basically tailed you last week & best weekend this year for me

I think I've asked/commented before, but I have my own little watch on Texas teams and have made $$ on UTSA this year. Don't know if you have looked at them at all.
Click to expand...


I haven't watched them much this year. They try hard and are well coached from what I can gather. But I would hardly say that I am an expert on that team. I have bad history with them in prior years, though ... over when I bet under, under when I bet over, cover when i have opponent, don't cover when I have them. So I am not that confident in the numbers I make for them or in the game playing out how I want. Heck in a couple the game played out like I thought but then utsa would somehow put up 28 points in the fourth quarter and cover by a score. Ok, that was 2013 ... but I have had trouble with that team for years. Sneaky HFA they have there too fwiw. For now, they are not a team I am focused on but their early results are certainly promising for their team/program.
 
Marsski said:
Been looking at the Hoosiers. Seems like a good spot for them w PSU off emotional win.
Click to expand...
I just think the line is too much. Not sure how far in advance Indiana was looking considering they had to prepare for a unique offense last week but this spot does seem promising. Seems like it should be a competitive game. I suspect PSU is quite a bit more efficient in turning yards into points this week but they also have an offense they have to defend this week. Won't be surprised if PSU has a big game, to be honest but I had to take Indiana at that. They are above average on both sides of the ball.
 
Quite the injury report for Memphis though. Are you concerned?

Memphis
Date Pos Player Injury Status
09/24/17 DB Christian Slaughter Undisclosed "?" Saturday vs. Central Florida
09/24/17 RB Doroland Dorceus Leg "?" Saturday vs. Central Florida
09/24/17 OL Drew Kyser Leg "?" Saturday vs. Central Florida
09/24/17 DB Marcus Green Undisclosed "?" Saturday vs. Central Florida
09/24/17 WR Roderick Proctor Undisclosed "?" Saturday vs. Central Florida
09/24/17 DB Shaun Rupert Lower Body "?" Saturday vs. Central Florida
09/24/17 DB Tito Windham Foot "?" Saturday vs. Central Florida
09/07/17 LB Darian Porter Undisclosed out for season
09/06/17 LB Jackson Dillon Head out for season
09/05/17 DL Jared Gentry Leg out for season
08/14/17 WR Sam Craft ACL out for season
 
vk said:
Got an even better number this go around. UCF might be a little better than I gave them credit for .. hard to tell with Terps losing their QB
Click to expand...
I was impressed with UCF front 7 on defense, they were disruptive and got consistent pressure and shut down MD running game. MD OL was extremely disappointing, they seemed to kind of act shell shocked after the Hill injury and were just plain and simple out physicaled.
 
Timh said:
I was impressed with UCF front 7 on defense, they were disruptive and got consistent pressure and shut down MD running game. MD OL was extremely disappointing, they seemed to kind of act shell shocked after the Hill injury and were just plain and simple out physicaled.
Click to expand...

Which is certainly interesting given what Terps oline did to Texas for parts of that game.
 
I may be a moron for doing it ...but to me

Out = Out
Doubtful = More likely out than in
Questionable = Probable but likely not 100%
Probable = In and near 100%

Seems to be more accurate than if you take the injury report at face value. Obviously some concern with a laundry list like that though, sure.
 
vk said:
Which is certainly interesting given what Terps oline did to Texas for parts of that game.
Click to expand...
That is what I don't understand and maybe it is more psychological than anything but I was sorely disappointed with the amount of fight that MD showed after the injury. They were passive and had it taken to them. All which leaves me confused at this point. I really felt like they were making progress, but now I have to question their on field leadership and resolve after what I watched.
 
Timh said:
That is what I don't understand and maybe it is more psychological than anything but I was sorely disappointed with the amount of fight that MD showed after the injury. They were passive and had it taken to them. All which leaves me confused at this point. I really felt like they were making progress, but now I have to question their on field leadership and resolve after what I watched.
Click to expand...

Had to be tough mentally though. Down to basically the fourth stringer.
 
NIU thoughts? Play on their D? I also assume this is going to be a slower paced game. Thanks BOL this week
 
Kentucky thoughts? Horrible letdown spot for them off FLA and now playing a MAC team. Just assuming you think UK talent wins out over 60 mins even if they are sleepwalking?
 
JohnnyGambler said:
Kentucky thoughts? Horrible letdown spot for them off FLA and now playing a MAC team. Just assuming you think UK talent wins out over 60 mins even if they are sleepwalking?
Click to expand...

This was one of three largish differences between my line and that provided by the books/market at the time I invested. Some lines, I am forced to play regardless of spot. In this case, I don't think Eastern Michigan can pass to success at all against Kentucky, anyway, despite some questionable pass defense so far from UK. They have proven they cannot run it very well ... 126, 114 and 40 to Charlotte, Rutgers and Ohio, respectively. Here, they should struggle to run again and I think UK gets off the field on third down a lot. Should set up the offense with some short fields. They already did their sleepwalk game I think, so I think they focus and take care of business. Also, while playing a bigger name SEC school is a huge deal, I am not sure next weeks game at Toledo isn't a bigger game for EMU than UK is right now after dropping the game to Ohio. I think Kentucky pretty much dominates this one. If they don't show up, they don't show up ... but even then I have to think I have a chance late at this number.
 
I didnt catch his name, but on finebaum today he had lexington beat writer describe the deflating situation elegantly. IMO they are very good, qb SJ has turned into very good one, might be tuff spot, but i see them bouncing back as well.

Northwestern needs to roll some game. Im with it.

Great start VK. Keep trusting your capping approach. Its coming back around.
 
Great job, on several. Can't touch Charlotte although you are probably waiting for more points
 
Totals

Ohio/Umass Over 49.5
Arizona State/Stanford Under 63.5
Ball State/Wmich Under 54.5
Ole Miss/Bama Under 59
 
yep, those were the only 7 they scored. hit a bomb for about 40 yds and then a few nice plays to score from the 30 or so. their rb is decent, he moves the pile. their qb play was awful. not surw what the status of graham is, but either way they suck at qb.
 
That was kind of making me mad the week after the NIU win at Nebraska...that people on the radio and TV I heard talking about the win was giving NIU all this credit saying how good they are vs Big Ten and their past bowl appearances and reputation, those NIU teams are not this NIU team. I do think I underestimated NIU's D (and also over estimated Tanner Lee), but Rutgers is better than NIU probably. Without Lee's bad throws and decisions Nebraska wins that game by 20, that is all it was. Outside of the pressure and INTs, NIU D did make Neb have to earn it, the fact is NIU O brought very little to the table in that one.

Having said that, don't think I like playing SD St however. I can't try and guess when a team is going to let down, so I try and stay away in a potential situation like that, but back-to-back PAC12 wins, then conference opener, now play an out of conference team they beat last year fairly easy, then have another MWC game on deck (although it is just UNLV). SD St might be good to bring full focus and effort every week, but NIU D should be good enough to get some stops, question is can their O hold up their end of the bargain?
 
With a total at 44.5 and 11, 17 would be holding up their end of the bargain, 20 would be overachieve slightly. They can do that. Off a bye and with revenge. The box score of last years game flatters NIU a little in that they look competitive by the numbers but were out of the game by halftime so you have to take the rest with a grain of salt. Still, a pretty good spot for them.

Not sure I can take them after passing on them at a better number anyway. And I tend to agree that Nebraska was the better team save one player. But Nebraska also held Rutgers to under 200 yards.

Thanks for the feedback.
 
niu d was quite a bit better than rutg imo. neb could not run the ball vs niu front. watch the 2h vs rutg. neb was blowing rutg off the ball. then again, maybe the neb backups that played because of injury are better than the starters.
 
vk said:
Most of us dropped Clemson PR in the offseason noting the losses of personnel but we seem to be giving them an awful lot of credit for that ville game and that auburn game. The defense is awesome no doubt but they are going to have to prove some things on the road offensively against a real defense before I say they have completely reloaded on the offensive side of the ball.
Click to expand...

Clemson has not completely reloaded on the offensive side of the ball, but keep in mind that VPI has played just one top-100 team this year, and the Hokies allowed 592 yards to West Virginia. These teams were not close last year, and the fall-off on offense is not great enough to close the gap.
 
Ya I watched the WBGVU game and they were getting destroyed by the neers offense. And, in actuality, that offense has a lot of similar principles to it that the Clemson offense does. I actually have more concern about the QB position at VT making big mistakes under pressure. I don't think VT can survive being more than -1 in turnovers for the spread and probably cannot win without being at least even. That HFA is going to be worth a lot though.
 
Hey vk, just curious if you have any thoughts on Hawaii this week. They're getting a TD at home against a Colorado St. team that I would think is a bit over-valued right now. Its a hell of a trip for CSU (Hawaii is always a tough road trip for many reasons) and I just feel like +7 is too much for them to give here.

College ball is not really my sport but this one looks too good to me. Any thoughts?
 
Could only back Georgia who I think will end up winning the SEC championship game, somehow, with the lesser team than Bama. or at least that was my preseason prediction and no reason to bail on it now.

incidentally, there is a good bit of evidence now that Notre Dame is pretty good. That win looks pretty good to me.

I just didn't make it much different than it is and their offense is a tough to back when laying this many road pts.

I don't want any. If you found a -6.5 maybe it is worth a shot.

Vols have looked crappy though.
 
Thanks vk. I was thinking about a two team teaser with them and Atlanta or KC.

Also would love to hear your Miami/Duke thoughts. Thanks.
 
I’m with you BYU and the bad line now. Still think we are on the right side of that one, but can’t bring myself to bet it again so will be pretty damn mad if they win by 2. Thought that line was only going up so hit it early
 
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