time to post my week 5 card so far

*Weather looks iffy that part of country so prob will be wait and see. I'll say this, any wind and rain help WMU tremendously
 
Sheesh, I need to learn to just be concise and make one post. Re: pace - WMU 35th in adj pace and CMU 81st - 71st and 73rd in pure plays per game (74 ppg and 73.7 ppg) so not super slow..
 
You probably saw that NIU is starting Ryan Maddie at QB. Former QB back up (with some playing experience 2014) was moved to WR in fall camp ,but came in to replace Graham last week vs W ILL and Carey said he provided a 'spark' and is going with him. 11 of 16 142y 1 TD (QB'd final 5 drives of game...17 pts, two SOD). At this point I'm sure Carey would try anything. Maddie had surgery last year, so nothing on him from last year.

He is probably a better dual-threat compared to Graham.

Hard to believe that Ball St D has been so good. Bunches of sacks and stout run D so far. The run D numbers are aided by E Kentucky's 3y on 27 att. IU went for 187 on 45 att.

Can NIU run on them? 301y (7.34 ypc) vs W ILL, but under 4 ypc in all other games this year although the running game outside of the QB hasn't been all bad.

NIU D has been so bad this year. Almost feel that NIU O will be ok here, but can they do enough on D? Ball St has some O of their own.

Have you made any decisions on this one?

'15 NIU-10 59-41
'14 NIU-3 35-21
'13 NIU-7 48-27
'12 NIU-2' 35-23
'11 NIU-17 41-38
'10 NIU-14' 59-21
'09 NIU-17 26-20
'08 Ball-9' 45-14 (Ball's undefeated reg ssn)
 
Crimson,

I like the over in this game as well (the weather a bit of a question), but I'm wondering where you see WMU as 35th in adjusted pace. Which site is that from?

CrimsonK said:
Sheesh, I need to learn to just be concise and make one post. Re: pace - WMU 35th in adj pace and CMU 81st - 71st and 73rd in pure plays per game (74 ppg and 73.7 ppg) so not super slow..
Click to expand...
 
Reds4 said:
Crimson,

I like the over in this game as well (the weather a bit of a question), but I'm wondering where you see WMU as 35th in adjusted pace. Which site is that from?
Click to expand...

This is from their offensive footprint in their 2016 stat profile on football study hall

Offensive Footprint

[TABLE="class: sbn-data-table, width: 703"]
<tbody>[TR="class: ui-state-even"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Team[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Rk[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Nat'l Average[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-odd"]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-even"]
[TD="align: left"]Std. Downs Run Rate[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]109[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]59.6%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-odd"]
[TD="align: left"]Pass Downs Run Rate[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]16.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]125[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]34.3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-even"]
[TD="align: left"]Adj. Pace[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-2.2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]81[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]+0.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-odd"]
[TD="align: left"]% of Solo Tackles[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]78.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]38[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]74.4%[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


Offensive Footprint

[TABLE="class: sbn-data-table, width: 703"]
<tbody>[TR="class: ui-state-even"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Team[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Rk[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Nat'l Average[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-odd"]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-even"]
[TD="align: left"]Std. Downs Run Rate[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]72.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]12[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]59.6%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-odd"]
[TD="align: left"]Pass Downs Run Rate[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]36.9%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]34.3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-even"]
[TD="align: left"]Adj. Pace[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]+4.2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]35[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]+0.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-odd"]
[TD="align: left"]% of Solo Tackles[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]68.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]102[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]74.4%[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


This is the real quick Bill C explanation of adj pace:

Instead of focusing on plays per minute or simply plays per game, I've always looked at pace at least partially as a function of run-pass ratio. Running plays are less likely, on average, to result in a stopped clock, simply because of the lack of incomplete passes. So in theory, if you run a lot, even if you go at mach speed you're not going to end up with as many plays per game as a pass-happy team like Washington State.
So basically, I use run-pass ratio to create what is basically an Expected Plays Per Game figure, then compare it to the actual plays. You could go much further with this if you take incomplete passes into account, or charting data that talks about runs to the edge, or whatever. But this works perfectly fine for my needs.
 
tee*dub said:
Gl- saw you had questions about Iowa o-line health up in thread. They released their two deep today and both Daniels (center) and welsh (guard) are on #1 line. This will be the first time in consecutive weeks the line has played together. Iowa run game should be very good and get better going forward. Run defense is the big concern right now. GL. Hate the number fwiw and won't be anywhere near it.
Click to expand...


Locked in on anything this week buddy? Or did I just miss it ??
 
He usually posts Friday night or Saturday morning jimbo.

Starting to get a little interest in the SJSU/UNM over. I get that SJSU will most likely be without Potter but Love now has a little more experience. He threw a bunch of picks in his first road start but he played better than Potter did in the Utah game before the injury and his overall numbers are not THAT far off from the season ending numbers of sjsu other than the interceptions (which also lowered the pass stats with the quick drives). So while there is probably a drop off, it cannot be huge given how good I believe Potter to be and the variance should be getting narrower the more snaps Love gets. Meanwhile, isn't the injury to Potter mitigated by UNM getting Gipson back for this game from a totals perspective? SJSU had almost 500 yards of offense against unm last year and granted a lot of that was the stud rb they don't have anymore but again ... you have to mitigate that with the fact that unm only had 335 vs the tough sjsu defense that is now a broken damn with water running to the endzone at every turn. They are 125th in the nation in yards per play defense and have given up 450 plus every game so far. Pretty sure UNM rates to get over 450 here as well. Both teams are a little below average in terms of pace but unm is the fastest paced of all the option teams. The number has just fallen way too low based off of the sjsu qb situation imo. Weather should be perfect ...

Not one to go against moves but I will be interested in this one if it keeps falling.
 
clowncar said:
My eye test is keeping me off Clemson and my situational handicapping and preseason pr and Clemson home value is keeping me off Ville. I am going to enjoy that one as a fan. My instinct says Clemson but I haven't seen sixty minutes from them in one game and not sure I haven't seen ville give sixty minutes of quality play in every game. It makes it hard to want to get in their way. No doubt Clemson the better defense but they have big play ability that Clemson has lacked so far. Great game and good luck with Clemson. I honestly just hope for some drama .... i don't want ville vs fsu all over again in this game with one team destroying the other.
Click to expand...

thanks for this, but you forgot to comment on UGA
 
GWarner27 said:
where the heck is the Clemson play? That line I can't comprehend even with Lamar Jackson's 2016 Heisman

...and I circled UGA in the offseason when everybody was in love with an unproven TENN team. Pleased to see them getting 3 and a hook at home between the hedges even if they've disappointed so far this year
Click to expand...

I cannot back when Chubb is unlikely to play. i like Eason and actually like some of his wr options even though they have had the dropsies all year. i am also a fan of their defense and a fan of the spot for georgia with vols off the big win. Vols one half of really good football this year. That's it and it looked like some of that was fla just gassing. So I think they are over rated but who knows if they woke up there or not. But without chubb i just don't have any interest and I am not backing vols in that road spot. Team has been as lucky as auburn started that one year. good luck with uga.. dont hate the play
 
Well after last week, I am not very proud of my season to date but I am proud of the fact that I am getting good line movement even though I am playing well after open. Obviously I would have much better numbers were I betting openers but my stale lines are still progressing well throughout the week. In addition, I have managed on occasion (rare occasion) to find a local number better than what is offered offshore by a half pt. Like I say every week, this isn't the best way to conduct business but I have wondered in recent years how I would do against close with just regular bets .. meaning without firing at just horrific early numbers. I am pretty proud of the fact I am beating close anyway.

No real value added with tonights washington game and it definitely qualified as a game I would have had action on under the key number 3. So that was one of the few games where my perceived line value didn't correspond to market close but I also knew 4 was likely as far as that thing would probably go given Stanford is well beloved and Washington is the new kid on the block so to speak.

Anyway check it out (with knowledge some of this could move the other way tomorrow) ...

fiu 5 - Thing moved to 7 and I thought I would be crushed by the number ... big move today and is actually sitting 4.5 most places now. So I feel better about that and I will get into the defenses in that game in a post in a few minutes.

Oklahomo -2 - Thing powered through key number 3 to 3.5

ole miss -14 - added a hook which is an extra score. I actually think it probably closes 14 at this point but for now I am happy.

usm -23 - now sits 25. So three TD's and a fg wins instead of loses. I will take it.

ncstate -10 - powered all the way through the 11 ... nice.

iowa -12.5 - at 13.5 now. Hard one to trust myself and pull that trigger for this one instead of waiting as I wasn't sure which way line would go. Happy with going through the 13. i can miss an extra pt others cannot (if it were to remain at this number)

uva 4 - unchanged

marshall pitt und 69 - now sits 65 or so. awesome.

nw iowa over 43 - 43.5 or 44 depending on the shop. 44 is a key number, so ok there.

ndame -10 - a little shocked. game was even below ten for a bit. mostly 10.5's when i bet this at 10 here in town too. Just surprised in a major way that this is not 14 or thereabouts. I get it with ndame secondary and tackling and cuse ability to throw but crimety sakes.

mtsu -14 -120 - This is my second favorite side bet of the week and I think they stomp here. 16 or 16.5 right now but I would expect it to close 17 or more. Would be shocked if this is a one score game. total over 62 now at 63.5. I have soured slightly on the total as I am not completely sure the underdog contributes enough.

ecu -4 - over 61,5 - now -3 and 61 ... apparently stopping fiu makes ucf defense as good as the ones they sported a few years ago. With huge downward move (i bet at -4 but the thing opened minus a full td and ex pt) on the favorite and a down tick on the total, basically saying ecu gonna score a lot less than what I expect. We will see... I feel really confident in that one.

gt 7.5 over 52 - now 7.5/8 53.5/54 - I will take it. My favorite over of the week.

ga st app st under 52 - .. unchanged. i guess people are tired of being burned by app st unders. dont think ga st can exploit the pass d weakness of app st.

wake ncsu under 49 - 48.5 ... admit i have some fear ncstate scores too much.

ari st 7.5 - Was like my betting it made it move all the way up like a rocket ship. I guess I timed that bet poorly. sits 10 now and i just assume that is burned money.

sdsu sbama under 52 - sits 51

usu boise under 59 - unchanged. Why? I know boise mad about last year and put up a number but matchups

nev haw under 59 - now 57

So basically have the arizona state turd bet and market clearly disagrees with me about the ucf ecu game on multiple levels .. otherwise, I am pretty darn delighted.

ok on to fiu and fau defenses.
 
As I kind of highlighted during the discussion about the offenses, the teams have played somewhat similar levels of competition which makes the offensive and defensive stats more comparable than you get for most matchups. FIU giving up 465 yards per game at 6.19 yards per play. FAU is giving up 496 yards per game at 6.44 yards per play. So basically a wash as far as performance so far.

There are some situational aspects to consider here and I admit that I had this game circled in the late offseason as one that I would like to get FIU at a short number to play. As it turns out they were a significant dog after playing so poorly to start with and after Coach Turner got fired. Ron Cooper takes over and I have to admit, despite knowing the name and despite having read up on him quite a bit this week, and despite the fact he has been coaching since before Eve was formed from Adam's rib, I don't know a ton about him or his philosophy. In any event, they were not playing well for Turner so I wonder just how bad the distractions could be for them. Also, they just got humiliated by an instate school and now get another instate school. I like them to want to bounce back here as their early performance leading to the firing could potentially be motivating, they have true revenge (fau a clear deserved winner 31 17 last year though aided by a pick six) and the programs are close in proximity. So while the coaching thing COULD be a distraction and FIU might have quit last week (and on their season), I think getting these points from a team that appears to be about the same as FIU in talent and with FIU at home appears to me to be a solid play.
 
There .. not my normal quality of showing everything I see but I kept my promise. Good luck later today all
 
having lost on FIU[/U]4 straight weeks, I was about to throw in the towel. But ill join you one more time and see if you can help me break the string. Also I on ECU again with you. Not much else in common this week, just the opposite of week 4. Best of luck, mr. car.
bull
 
having lost on FIU[/U]4 straight weeks, I was about to throw in the towel. But ill join you one more time and see if you can help me break the string. Also I on ECU again with you. Not much else in common this week, just the opposite of week 4. Best of luck, mr. car.
bull
 
Thanks Bull and Frank.


Hey guys, I know that forecasts are hard to trust but today looks like a day where we could get some weather (potential delays) so keep that in mind before laying your big number or investing in that over that looks super nice. Games on my menu in post 1 with potential issues.

nw/iowa scattered light showers, w 7mph
fau/fiu chance thunderstorms w 12mph
akron/kentst chance light showers 4mph
ucf/ecu chance thunderstorm 6mph
wiscy/mich numerous thunderstorms 6 mph
nev.haw moderate rain showers wind 16mph (wow)

Anyway, keep an eye out today
 
The vandenburg loss is tricky to handicap IMO. could be a positive to the ATS possibly. Vandy is not a gamechanger by any means- he is more like the plain girlfriend who is safe, wont give you diseases and occasionaly though not always swallows. Now that greg Davis (OC) is forced to go away from safe girlfriend and go with some more talented, tho untested, girlfriends, who knows.. Iowa will move the ball any number of ways as you mention. I lean NW now just because Iowa has not shown me the ability to stop the run.. That is something to keep track of going forward.. Currently I believe they are last in all of CFB in offensive plays run.. That is insane under Ferentz as it is the oppo of what they do, and its largely a byproduct of the porous (so far) run defense.. GL today kid
 
BOL today Kyle, enjoy a good day of football which hopefully will be profitable as well.
 
Great call on G Tech over. I was a little worried with how slow GT came out. They burned the 1st 6 minutes and went 12 yards. Nice work on a 3rd qrtr cover.
 
Some rough losses. But overall a good day.

Pitt/marshall under - Grade B

usm -23 - Grade A - This is the second time this year that I have bet against Rice, outgained them by over 300 yards and somehow still didn't cover. southern miss set a school record for total yards somewhere around 700 and held rice to a measly 346 .. so basically doubled them up but only won by 16. Obviously usm was minus 3 in turnovers. Unfortunate result.

Iowa -12.5 Grade F - NW with more first downs, more yards rushing, more yards passing and were just the better team for most of the game. not much to add.

mtsu unt over - Grade F - only 40 combined first downs and less than 800 yards. wow. Have not seen a play of the game but statistically, it was just a bad play.

ecu -4 - Grade C (because at some point, driving the field and not scoring is just who you are) this team is frustrating as all get out. They are great at winning box scores and terrible at winning games. 518 to 370 yardage edge and didn't sniff covering. 29-16 first down edge. Shrug. They can't get out of their own way in the red zone .. stopped on downs after first and goal inside the five, fumbled through the end zone again , missed an easy fg again, had a ball intercepted for a td or fumbled for a td .. cannot remember but one of the two .. got tackled for a safety, gave up a kickoff return td .. you name they found a way to do it. Looked like the better team but that could be a mirage. They cannot figure out how to finish when it matters.

GT 7.5 - B Two scoop and scores was the spread difference. Thought both teams left pts off the board and felt the GT option played well other than Thomas who had a bad game. Guess the game was lucky to go over the number with a low total yards output so maybe a split is what was deserved but GT basically played dead even with Miami but had two fumbles returned for TDs in the span of three plays. Quite honestly if it weren't for the key poorly timed penalties they probably cover and if not for the two fumbles for tds they cover. Tough loss but again .. maybe fortunate on the total? I dunno watching I felt the offenses had the edge most of the game with the exception of miami offense in the 2h and that is because they were no longer needing to abuse the gt secondary.

Arizona st 7.5 - I knew it was a stinker within a few hours of playing it as it skyrocketed and they played like giant turds. The effort level from that team was just an embarrassment. Graham can coach offense but he just isn't very good at game managing. I think that makes me 0-4 in games involving usc so I guess I have to throw them into the "I don't understand" pile and just avoid their games for the remainder unless they make a bowl (I play every bowl game). 523 yards to 303 and a lot of the ASU yards came late when game was over. The score is not indicative of how bad Arizona State was. Some of the plays, watching their "defense" was just silliness. Sickening team effort and the coaching staff should be ashamed of themselves. So should I, for backing these bums.

sdsu sbam under - Grade B - hehe .. 647 combined yards, 38 combined first downs, 9 for 23 on third downs, 66 pts. I guess I would have to bet it again if I could? 79 of those yards came on one play too. sigh.

I also had a play on the akron under but it doesn't appear I ever posted it ... but just for my sake ...

akr ksu under grade c

Not a bad week at 15 - 8 posted and when you make that many plays and only have a handful of turd plays (ASU what was I thinking) it is a good week. I probably should have laid off Iowa on principle but that is easy to say now.
 
tee*dub said:
leaned them all day--just cant pull trigger.. what you seeing? apologize if its covered up in thread.
Click to expand...

Wmich had "More Man", so to speak. Sorry I didn't get to reply as I only posted and immediately left the site to do boxscoring/ingaming/scoreboard watching on my phone
 
wiseplayer said:
Great call on G Tech over. I was a little worried with how slow GT came out. They burned the 1st 6 minutes and went 12 yards. Nice work on a 3rd qrtr cover.
Click to expand...

It was one of the luckier wins by the numbers but I would bet it again based one the offenses doing basically what I thought.

And yes, the early chop block and holds were tough to overcome. Luckily for the over, Thomas had a very bad day.
 
I watched the entire Akron/Kent St game and didn't have $ on the total. You're being too harsh on yourself for that grade. In the first half Kent scored on what might as well have been a pk 6 (returned to inside the 5)...at the end of the game each team scored tds within the last 1:10. If Kent wouldn't have scored, Akron wouldn't have needed to. Kent went 97 yards and Holley looked like Joe Montana. They have probably never went 97 yards on a game winning drive in their existence and will probably never do it again. An inexplicable returnable pooch kick followed and Akron ended up with the ball near midfield. Chapman went 11 for 28 and really only hit a few big plays. Only consistent offense from either team was Rankin out of the backfield (that dude is going to rack up some numbers against the MAC). Under should have paid
 
clowncar said:
Wmich had "More Man", so to speak. Sorry I didn't get to reply as I only posted and immediately left the site to do boxscoring/ingaming/scoreboard watching on my phone
Click to expand...

No problem. I didn't play it and regret it. All cappers know about the strong leans not played and how they can drive you batty. Since I try to be so selective I typically have many unplayed leans.. However a brother reminded me this morning---"relax dude, remember you also had hard heavy lean on Ariz st." LOL, and point taken

congrats on good day... Got a pretty good read on SGU this year and think I have a good feel how this plays out. We should compare notes later in the week..gl
 
excellent work, but friggin rice jeez. the rice radio team repeatedly praised the owls for the effort, saying the score didn't reflect how hard rice was playing. i see undefeated teams loafing at times yet this punching bag somehow has more pride than anyone? also rice fumbled 3 times and recovered all 3. usm fumbled 3 times and recovered 1. usm had a kick return for a td called back on a hold. 702- 346 yards. sick
 
broadwayjoe said:
I watched the entire Akron/Kent St game and didn't have $ on the total. You're being too harsh on yourself for that grade. In the first half Kent scored on what might as well have been a pk 6 (returned to inside the 5)...at the end of the game each team scored tds within the last 1:10. If Kent wouldn't have scored, Akron wouldn't have needed to. Kent went 97 yards and Holley looked like Joe Montana. They have probably never went 97 yards on a game winning drive in their existence and will probably never do it again. An inexplicable returnable pooch kick followed and Akron ended up with the ball near midfield. Chapman went 11 for 28 and really only hit a few big plays. Only consistent offense from either team was Rankin out of the backfield (that dude is going to rack up some numbers against the MAC). Under should have paid
Click to expand...

Yes, but I hadn't capped for the existence of Chapman who was pretty bad. Even now, I don't know why Woodson didn't play. Violation of team rules? dunno. Obviously the end of the game was unlucky or unfortunate anyway. I think I will start a thread on how horrible squib kicking is. A large portion of this investment was also against the Kent State offense. Those large chunk plays were just not something that I expected to happen. If Woodson was playing, I think the score is a lot higher. I may be being harsh in the sense I am not sure that there was opportunity to know Woodson wasn't playing, though. I lost two unders where the teams needed to score two times in the last minute for me to lose yesterday. The other one is easily my worst bad beat of the year and I will probably not write about it for a few days hehe. .... sometimes the "why" I bet something also factors into the grade, not just whether it was a good bet. Just a little disappointed in the Akron defense.
 
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tee*dub said:
No problem. I didn't play it and regret it. All cappers know about the strong leans not played and how they can drive you batty. Since I try to be so selective I typically have many unplayed leans.. However a brother reminded me this morning---"relax dude, remember you also had hard heavy lean on Ariz st." LOL, and point taken

congrats on good day... Got a pretty good read on SGU this year and think I have a good feel how this plays out. We should compare notes later in the week..gl
Click to expand...

Ya. I usually mitigate the unplayed leans factor by throwing some "pizza money" on it and that way I am happy. I also have a big ego with regards to cfb so I just like to be right as well. I do have regrets on laying off Kansas State and NIU. I have some regret not taking utep after they were bet up as well.

There is usually a good reason we won't play our unplayed leans and while I think mine have been profitable over the years, only slightly so.

I don't think I know Iowa as well as you do, this year, though I am 2-1 in games involving them so far. If they were to offer the Iowa/ISU bet that I took earlier in the year, I doubt I would play that now, and while the under that I won with them was a good bet, it wasn't as good as the final score indicated it was. I had a lot of people I respect telling me to be careful on that iowa bet this week and I didn't really listen. I had a middle to land 13 I could have attacked if I wasn't so confident in my read on NW heading into the game. Just some teams I really shouldn't be laying dd with in conference play against below average teams. Soooo easy to Monday QB that sort of thing but it is better than not looking back at all and questioning myself.

Good job laying off ASU. What a bunch of turds. I wish I had time to obtain the video and splice it to show the lack of effort on a lot of plays, particularly defense. Just cannot believe that a major program quits on that many plays.
 
dickydunn said:
excellent work, but friggin rice jeez. the rice radio team repeatedly praised the owls for the effort, saying the score didn't reflect how hard rice was playing. i see undefeated teams loafing at times yet this punching bag somehow has more pride than anyone? also rice fumbled 3 times and recovered all 3. usm fumbled 3 times and recovered 1. usm had a kick return for a td called back on a hold. 702- 346 yards. sick
Click to expand...

Ya they bowed up against Baylor at the goal line to cost me a bet a couple weeks ago when they should have been exhausted and were outgained by over 300 there too i believe. Granted Baylor was handing it to some fullback who looked like he could barely beat me in a race, but still. While I rarely seem to be on the good side of a game where the boxscore is dominant against me but my team still covers, I like to think that is because I have a lot more games where the boxscores are in my bets favor, thus making it harder to have the good side of that often. At least that is how I am going to rationalize it to not complain about luck anymore than I already do.
 
clowncar said:
Ya. I usually mitigate the unplayed leans factor by throwing some "pizza money" on it and that way I am happy. I also have a big ego with regards to cfb so I just like to be right as well. I do have regrets on laying off Kansas State and NIU. I have some regret not taking utep after they were bet up as well.

There is usually a good reason we won't play our unplayed leans and while I think mine have been profitable over the years, only slightly so.

I don't think I know Iowa as well as you do, this year, though I am 2-1 in games involving them so far. If they were to offer the Iowa/ISU bet that I took earlier in the year, I doubt I would play that now, and while the under that I won with them was a good bet, it wasn't as good as the final score indicated it was. I had a lot of people I respect telling me to be careful on that iowa bet this week and I didn't really listen. I had a middle to land 13 I could have attacked if I wasn't so confident in my read on NW heading into the game. Just some teams I really shouldn't be laying dd with in conference play against below average teams. Soooo easy to Monday QB that sort of thing but it is better than not looking back at all and questioning myself.

Good job laying off ASU. What a bunch of turds. I wish I had time to obtain the video and splice it to show the lack of effort on a lot of plays, particularly defense. Just cannot believe that a major program quits on that many plays.
Click to expand...

UCLA at home on deck.. overreaction coming? Don't like the quitting part but sometimes when that happens, on film and noted in film room, returning home, 20 year olds... what do you think? Don't like the revenge aspect I must admit..
 
tee*dub said:
UCLA at home on deck.. overreaction coming? Don't like the quitting part but sometimes when that happens, on film and noted in film room, returning home, 20 year olds... what do you think? Don't like the revenge aspect I must admit..
Click to expand...


All yours. UCLA looks like they are coming into their own. Rosen standing in and quick release allowed them some great plays while they were under pressure last night. UCLA defense is pretty good and I just cannot back that ASU defense again until I see something different. I didn't see the texas tech game (thank god, who would want to watch that? and lost there) but I did see the Cal game and the UTSA game (I had ASU there too). I just have little desire to back them based on what I have seen. With that said, I tend to find more value with away teams as I think the home lines as produced by market is a little skewed on some games but ASU might be one of those extreme teams this year with regards to home and away splits. I will leave it to you and others who can read this team better than me. I am somewhat struggling with that conference in general between ASU and USC.
 
Oh one other thing .. QB Wilkins got hurt for ArSt last night so you might want to check on his status for next weeks game too before getting involved.
 
I did a horrible job of coat tailing . ALL MY FAULT played 2 totals o yours and split I think you went 7-5 on sides??
I played only 3 of the 7 winners and also faded one. Conversely, I joined you on 4 of the 5 Ls . That is 3 weeks in a row I have lost on ECU. Done with them for the season. Watched quite a bit o f game, but when it the outcome was clear I switched to other and better entertainment. GL again this week
bull
 
bull said:
I did a horrible job of coat tailing . ALL MY FAULT played 2 totals o yours and split I think you went 7-5 on sides??
I played only 3 of the 7 winners and also faded one. Conversely, I joined you on 4 of the 5 Ls . That is 3 weeks in a row I have lost on ECU. Done with them for the season. Watched quite a bit o f game, but when it the outcome was clear I switched to other and better entertainment. GL again this week
bull
Click to expand...

For others, make sure to check QB status of ECU before involvement this week if you are looking to get involved there. That game was not the most frustrating of the week for me but I started texting play by play to some of my cfb friends each time ecu got in the red zone. I wonder Sunday through Friday why they hate me so much ... because I whine like a little bitch on Saturdays.

I think I was 9-5 on sides so you were even more unfortunate than you thought.
 
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