time to post my week 5 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
week 1 17-15
week 2 13-7
week 3 16-17
week 4 10-16
overall 56-55

Learn from what happened and use it to your benefit moving forward.


Locked In

Washington -3 1-0
Florida International +5 2-0
Oklahoma -2 3-0
Ole Miss -14 4=0
USM -23 4-1
Ncstate -10 5-1
Iowa -12.5 5-2
uva 4 6 2
113/114 Marshall/Pitt Under 69 6 3
121/122 Northwestern/Iowa Over 43 7 3
129 Notre Dame -10 8 3
137 MTSU -14 -120 9 3
137/138 MTSU/unt over 62 9 4
152 ECU -4 9 5
151/152 UCF/ECU over 61.5 10 5
158 Georgia Tech 7.5 10 6
157/158 Miami/GT over 52 11 6
179/180 Ga St/App St under 52 12 6
189/190 Wake/ncsu under 49 12 6
195 Arizona State 7.5 (whoops) 12 7
205/206 Sdsu/Bama St under 52 12 8
213/214 utahst/boise st under 59 13 8
219/220 Nevada/hawaii under 59 14 8
Wmich -3 15 8

71-63


Strong Leans
Toledo 4 eliminated .. lean under eliminated too
Iowa -12.5 played
Virginia 4 played
UTEP 21 lost number, eliminated
Wmich -3.5 eliminated
NIU 4
GT 6.5 played
USM -22 Played
Indiana 7.5 eliminated

Talk Me Off Leans
Notre Dame -13 played
 
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Some quick thoughts and spot notes (subjective and objective):

Uconn/Houston - Inflated line against Uconn. Revenge game for Houston whose only defeat was to Uconn last year. Postma started because Ward was having the ankle problem.

Kansas/Texas Tech - Both teams off a bye. Only 101 yards separated teams last year and game only hit 50 points.

Toledo/Byu - Toledo off a bye, BYU off cross country travel and short week .. bye vs short week. BYU off gauntlet and has michigan state on deck. Good situation for Toledo.

Stanford/Washington - 117 plays only in last years game. Washington defense (if they cannot get mashed) matches up beautifully to this style of offense. Washington off Overtime in the Desert and Stanford off emotional last second win as well. Changing of the guard.

Marshall/Pitt - Check Litton status. unc/GT sandwich for Pitt.

Memphis/Ole Miss - Sneaky rivalry. Ole Miss with three top 12 opponents at time they played them and Arkansas on deck. Major revenge game after Memphis rushed the field after beating Ole Miss last year.

nw/Iowa - NW gave up over 300 rushing to neb at home, and allowed 5.67 yards rushing by Iowa last year. iowa oline injury status? Decent big ten teams on deck for both.

Rutgers/Ohio State - Ohio State off a bye and just Indiana home game on deck. Line inflated. Can Rutgers score?

Kstate/Wvag - Kstate off weather shortened cupcake game, Wvag off Byu. Wvir with bye to follow, kstate with texas tech to follow. Wvir unimpressive week one and against byu. fortunate cover, fortunate su win respectively. kstate the better team?

uva/Duke - Duke off biggest football win in team history, UVA off confidence building games last two weeks.

nd/cuse - ND off horrible loss. Fired defensive coordinator. "Players' jobs are on the line; all coaches' jobs are on the line," Kelly said. "I'm under review as well.

usf/cin - Cin QB status?

wmich/Cmich - One of the four best games of the weekend. Make sure to watch.

NIU/Ball State - Hot Seat Alert.

Mia fl/Gt - clemson -10.5 at GT, Miami fl -4 at appst (over reaction to those two games?)

orst/Col - Buffs qb?

wake/ncsu - back to back road games wake off deceiving final score win, NCSU off bye. Good spot ncsu.
 
Arkansas is Ole Miss' next game, but they have a bye week beforehand. I was kind of 50/50 on whether Ole Miss would fold up after losing they way they did against Alabama, but as long as they stay healthy, I think they'll be a tough out for the rest of the season.
 
I have a hard time laying double digits with Iowa at this point despite the putrid opponent. But I understand your justification.
 
I think you would expect ND to have a sense of purpose this week. Their defensive effort has just been so poor, in all their games I have watched. In the Tex gm, I remember Texas had 3rd and 4 or 5 inside the 10 in RZ and ran a back out of the backfield and the LB for ND has his feet planted on the goal line and never came up to defend the first down marker line. Just very passive and gave up the first down and Texas scored a TD a couple plays later. I read an article in SI where the writer basically said that ND doesn't have much defensive talent and are paying for lack of recruiting coupled with attrition of some of their better players and realistically the expectations are too high right now (though he agreed that Van Gorter had to go) and some improvement is certainly possible but they are not going to be an elite defense no matter who coaches them...just don't have the personnel.
 
ND's sense of purpose may have went down the drain when its season goal of playing in the FF went down the drain after 3 weeks. I assumed, at home, they'd get off the mat and give a good performance against a crappy Duke team. Alas, you saw a bed wetting.

Can you throw in the towel after 4 games? Maybe so.
 
Timh said:
I think you would expect ND to have a sense of purpose this week. Their defensive effort has just been so poor, in all their games I have watched. In the Tex gm, I remember Texas had 3rd and 4 or 5 inside the 10 in RZ and ran a back out of the backfield and the LB for ND has his feet planted on the goal line and never came up to defend the first down marker line. Just very passive and gave up the first down and Texas scored a TD a couple plays later. I read an article in SI where the writer basically said that ND doesn't have much defensive talent and are paying for lack of recruiting coupled with attrition of some of their better players and realistically the expectations are too high right now (though he agreed that Van Gorter had to go) and some improvement is certainly possible but they are not going to be an elite defense no matter who coaches them...just don't have the personnel.
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my thoughts too

this isn't like LSU(who I think is in a GREAT spot) that HAS the horses, just not the coach

this is ND NOT having the players to compete with teams
 
Watching the ND defense reminded me of watching Neb defense post Suh. there's only so much you can do when the talent just isn't there.
 
gps_3 said:
Arkansas is Ole Miss' next game, but they have a bye week beforehand. I was kind of 50/50 on whether Ole Miss would fold up after losing they way they did against Alabama, but as long as they stay healthy, I think they'll be a tough out for the rest of the season.
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Isn't it after the bye that Arky starts to be everyone's "next team"?
They should play full contact all through August and see if they can get to the point that Sept. is mid season. Oh yeah, rules won't allow that.
 
Ole Miss -14
USM -23
Ncstate -10
Iowa -12.5
uva 4

Seems a bit square looking at what I added but whatever
 
Gl- saw you had questions about Iowa o-line health up in thread. They released their two deep today and both Daniels (center) and welsh (guard) are on #1 line. This will be the first time in consecutive weeks the line has played together. Iowa run game should be very good and get better going forward. Run defense is the big concern right now. GL. Hate the number fwiw and won't be anywhere near it.
 
tee*dub said:
Gl- saw you had questions about Iowa o-line health up in thread. They released their two deep today and both Daniels (center) and welsh (guard) are on #1 line. This will be the first time in consecutive weeks the line has played together. Iowa run game should be very good and get better going forward. Run defense is the big concern right now. GL. Hate the number fwiw and won't be anywhere near it.
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I think, as Cub mentioned, that Nebraska is quite a bit ahead of Iowa offensively but Iowa can run on NW as almost any team can. This isn't a NDSU situation where they are gonna get stuffed. More likely to see a Rutgers, Miami Oh, or ISU type of defense for Iowa running the ball. NW has proven for the first month of the year that they are simply incapable of running the football. To date, the Iowa rush defense has been their achilles heel on that side of the ball but it just cannot, in any way shape or form, be exploited by the Wildcats.
 
Thought about Ball St, but see NIU as a lean for you. What is making you consider them this week? Think Ball St will love to take advantage of NIU having a down year, especially since the series has been so one-sided of late.
 
Adds

113/114 Marshall/Pitt Under 69
121/122 Northwestern/Iowa Over 43
129 Notre Dame -10
137 MTSU -14 -120
137/138 MTSU/unt over 62
152 ECU -4
151/152 UCF/ECU over 61.5
158 Georgia Tech 7.5
157/158 Miami/GT over 52
179/180 Ga St/App St under 52
189/190 Wake/ncsu under 49
195 Arizona State 7.5 (whoops)
205/206 Sdsu/Bama St under 52
213/214 utahst/boise st under 59
219/220 Nevada/hawaii under 59
 
Not going to lie, I worked extra hard this week.

Added plays I sorted by bet# for my own personal reasons. All are played for 1 unit.

Looks like I made two mistakes .. Took Ariz St and it moved 2.5 pts the other way and I took fiu and it moved 2 pts the other way.

Most everything else I did ok or am around the number to the good or bad by a half pt.

Northern Illinois .. barring weather plays or major news is the last lean. I won't be on anything else.

Best of luck
 
I havent been able to get anything definitive on Litton? I played Marshall last week and was away all day sat when he was ruled out and I had bet a bad nymber so that was rough. From the looks of things his backup had a really rough go against that defense.

Would love a real quick highlight blurb of why NC State under, when/if you can.

GL this week!
 
Sure.

Wake is slow paced. Despite certain parts of what my eyes told me on north carolina state, the numbers show they are also below average on pace. Wake 3.18 yards per play vs tulane, 4.46 vs Indiana. Wake on back to back travel and ncstate prepping for them off a bye. ncsu gave up 445 yards to ecu (miles ahead of wake on the offensive side of the ball) but 265 or so of those came first half, so they settled in .. 168 total yards given up in the opener to the cupcake and 163 of old dom 321 yards came in garbage time final three drives after the score was 35-9. Wake defense obviously has some concerns after indiana game where they were bailed out by turnovers while getting beat pretty bad .. but not sure NCST is there yet on offense and there is familiarity here. In the first qtr of last years game ncst had two 1 play td drives and 4 play td drive in the first qtr and had 28 first qtr pts ... but were held to just 7 more for the remainder. Total plays in that game were 132. Maybe wake gets fluke scoring again like last week, but I doubt it. The team most likely to move with great success is the team with fg kicking issues. In addition, where NCST has been vulnerable on defense has been against the pass and Wake has no shot with that.

As for Litton, I am almost positive he is playing this week.
 
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So I am the idiot who took FIU at plus 5 and now the game sits FAU -7. Given that, I wanted to take a few minutes to defend my position. It is easy to just ask the question "Who is FAU to lay a TD to anyone?", but I wanted to show why the numbers led me to the Panthers.

FAU is 1-3. They grabbed an 8 pt win against southern Illinois week one and have dropped three straight to miami florida, kansas state and ball state by scores of 10-38, 7-63 and 27-31, respectively. In those games, they averaged 5.95, 3.01, 3.25 and 6.1 yards per play on offense in each of those games and averaged 4.64 yards per play on offense in aggregate. FIU has not won a game yet and played a schedule of Indiana, Maryland, @umass, and UCF. In those games FIU averaged 4.87, 5.47, 4.63 and 3.26 respectively and averaged 4.61 yards per play on offense in aggregate. Overall, you are looking at fairly similar levels of schedule coupled with results. FAU has 420 rushing yards through 4 games and 902 passing yards. Some of that is related to time and score but they have basically been relying on Jason Driskel to throw it a bunch.

ugh passing out at computer .. will finish write up after a nap
 
Promise I will get to the fiu fau defenses and of course the fiu coaching situation before kickoff
 
Wondering about the Ore St - CU game....it is hard not to be into what this CU team is doing, but should they be laying 3+ scores to a conference opponent? Not too long ago...like last year, these teams weren't too far apart. CU has grown by leaps and bounds, Ore St has just sprouted a little, but 18.5 now? Was CU-1.5 on the road last year.

The Boise - Ore St line closed at 16 or 17 I think? What is Ore ST HF? 3.5? So Boise 19.5-20.5 vs Ore St neutral field. What is CU HF, about the same? Line at 18.5 right now...so CU is like 15 pt fav on a neutral field to Ore St, does that sound right for a CU vs Boise line - edit I had to fix my math on this~

Does QB for CU matter after what Montez did? QB likely does matter for Beavers, apparently Garretson is going to be the guy, which maybe giving the frosh kid his first road start isn't a good thing to do in terms of pressure on him, but he did provide a spark last week.

Pretty interesting game I think. Can Beavers match the play they had in the 2nd half last week, or is the first half who they actually are? Probably close to the later. CU has been pretty damn impressive all along save the Liufau-less half vs Mich.

Lotta love for CU, and the win at Autzen, but Oregon was knocking on the door for the win. Montez was bad off the bench at Michigan, but alot of QBs would be bad in that spot...what wonders a week of practice will do.

Seems the line has been inflated quite a bit, but people eating it up.
 
Don't know if it has been mentioned, but Iowa's leading receiver Matt Vandeberg injured his foot in practice and is out. He has more receptions than the other 4 WRs combined. TE and RB are #2 and #4.

Not much to like about NW this year and some head scratching on the Iowa end too. This is the biggest spread in this series since 2009. Iowa has had their way the last 2 years, previously it's been close since Fitz came around in 06. Fitz is actually 5-5 SU vs Iowa with SU wins as 20, 8, 15 pt underdogs. Series since '06 is 5-5 ATS. Avg margin of victory for Iowa 19.8, average margin of victory for NW is 8.2.

'06 NW @ Iowa-20, 21-7 NW (Iowa finished 6-6, NW 4-8)
'07 Iowa-1.5 @ NW, 28-17 Iowa (Iowa finished, NW 6-6)
'08 NW @ Iowa-8, 22-17 NW (Iowa finished, NW 9-4)
'09 NW @ Iowa-15, 17-10 NW (Iowa finished 11-2, NW 8-5)
'10 Iowa-10 @ NW, 21-17 NW (Iowa finished 8-5, NW 7-6)
'11 NW @ Iowa-6.5, 41-31 Iowa (Iowa finished 7-6, NW 6-7)
'12 Iowa @ NW-5, 28-17 NW (Iowa finished 4-8, NW 10-3)
'13 NW @ Iowa-3.5, 17-10 OT Iowa (Iowa finished 8-5, NW 5-7)
'14 NW @ Iowa-4, 48-7 Iowa (Iowa finished 7-6, NW 5-7)
'15 Iowa-1.5 @ NW, 40-10 Iowa (Iowa finished 12-2, NW 10-3)
 
where the heck is the Clemson play? That line I can't comprehend even with Lamar Jackson's 2016 Heisman

...and I circled UGA in the offseason when everybody was in love with an unproven TENN team. Pleased to see them getting 3 and a hook at home between the hedges even if they've disappointed so far this year
 
Thoughts on NC/FSU over? I was surprised that NC isn't running more plays per game (only 65.3) but think that some of that can be attributed to quick strike offense and of course their inability to stop the run very well hence opponents longer drives and TOP. I made this one in the 75 range and played it. I think UNC should be able to put up 28 plus here, and figure FSU for over 40.
 
Timh said:
Thoughts on NC/FSU over? I was surprised that NC isn't running more plays per game (only 65.3) but think that some of that can be attributed to quick strike offense and of course their inability to stop the run very well hence opponents longer drives and TOP. I made this one in the 75 range and played it. I think UNC should be able to put up 28 plus here, and figure FSU for over 40.
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The amount of time per play for UNC is still in the top fifth as far as being fast. But two of their three opponents are on the slow side because they love to run the football (UGA Pitt). The interesting part is that the rush defense of UNC is the weak link and they competed pretty much dead even to both of those teams. But when you play teams capable of ball control, it lowers those plays per game as you know so ... I am pretty confident that UNC is going to be top fifth as far as being fast by seasons end too. It is difficult to make sense of the FSU games to a certain extent. They played some really fast paced teams in ole miss and ville and fell behind early. Their amount of time per play is slow. So you are stuck with the situation of having another team capable of running the ball on UNC with D. Cook and company and controlling the clock a little. Before the year started, I would have been on this under the number because of how I had the FSU defense rated but they haven't shown the ability to stop good offense yet, particularly the style that UNC is employing ... while slightly different than ole miss or ville, the similarities are enough to make one think that UNC can put up a number. It's just a really confusing game for me not just with the total but with the side. Decent chance that UNC gets faster as the year goes as Trubisky gets more comfortable too.

Philisophical question for you Timh ... Say you have a team that takes its time more between snaps (FSU) and a team that is relatively quick between snaps (UNC), which team leading lends itself to more pts in the game? If UNC is leading does that make FSU go faster and UNC will go fast anyway or would they slow down? If FSU is leading does it make UNC go that much faster (how much faster are they capable of?) and FSU just take the air out with the run game?

I have already fallen for the FSU defense is good lie twice and almost did it three times. I had under against ole miss (awful bet), I almost took FSU on principle against Ville (awful almost bet) and I took the under against USF (awful bet). Meanwhile, I won with UNC on the over against UGA and the over against Illinois. So I have a bias towards the over in this game because of early outcomes on the personal level too.

UNC isn't going to develop a run defense overnight and fsu can run it well and fsu isn't going to learn how to stop this type of offense overnight either so I would think UNC scores too. I guess I lean over ... but it just isn't my style of over investment and generally feel the total offered is pretty close to mine, particularly for a total that high where the variance matters less for me.

I hate to be answering with a shrug but I just don't have a damn clue on that game.... to include believing there could be extreme volatility when it comes to the pace .. meaning I wouldn't be surprised if it was much faster than I would cap it or much slower than I would cap it. I just have no clue.
 
GWarner27 said:
where the heck is the Clemson play? That line I can't comprehend even with Lamar Jackson's 2016 Heisman

...and I circled UGA in the offseason when everybody was in love with an unproven TENN team. Pleased to see them getting 3 and a hook at home between the hedges even if they've disappointed so far this year
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My eye test is keeping me off Clemson and my situational handicapping and preseason pr and Clemson home value is keeping me off Ville. I am going to enjoy that one as a fan. My instinct says Clemson but I haven't seen sixty minutes from them in one game and not sure I haven't seen ville give sixty minutes of quality play in every game. It makes it hard to want to get in their way. No doubt Clemson the better defense but they have big play ability that Clemson has lacked so far. Great game and good luck with Clemson. I honestly just hope for some drama .... i don't want ville vs fsu all over again in this game with one team destroying the other.
 
s--k said:
Don't know if it has been mentioned, but Iowa's leading receiver Matt Vandeberg injured his foot in practice and is out. He has more receptions than the other 4 WRs combined. TE and RB are #2 and #4.

Not much to like about NW this year and some head scratching on the Iowa end too. This is the biggest spread in this series since 2009. Iowa has had their way the last 2 years, previously it's been close since Fitz came around in 06. Fitz is actually 5-5 SU vs Iowa with SU wins as 20, 8, 15 pt underdogs. Series since '06 is 5-5 ATS. Avg margin of victory for Iowa 19.8, average margin of victory for NW is 8.2.

'06 NW @ Iowa-20, 21-7 NW (Iowa finished 6-6, NW 4-8)
'07 Iowa-1.5 @ NW, 28-17 Iowa (Iowa finished, NW 6-6)
'08 NW @ Iowa-8, 22-17 NW (Iowa finished, NW 9-4)
'09 NW @ Iowa-15, 17-10 NW (Iowa finished 11-2, NW 8-5)
'10 Iowa-10 @ NW, 21-17 NW (Iowa finished 8-5, NW 7-6)
'11 NW @ Iowa-6.5, 41-31 Iowa (Iowa finished 7-6, NW 6-7)
'12 Iowa @ NW-5, 28-17 NW (Iowa finished 4-8, NW 10-3)
'13 NW @ Iowa-3.5, 17-10 OT Iowa (Iowa finished 8-5, NW 5-7)
'14 NW @ Iowa-4, 48-7 Iowa (Iowa finished 7-6, NW 5-7)
'15 Iowa-1.5 @ NW, 40-10 Iowa (Iowa finished 12-2, NW 10-3)
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I am not going to downplay the WR loss too much but I am very familiar with Iowa schemes offensively as I follow this team pretty closely (not teedub closely but closely) over the years. They are super run based which they utilize to set up the pass which usually means very few options in the passing game. What i mean by that is that Iowa does not have normal WR to WR progressions on most plays and they run more plays with the TE as the intended primary target of the play as just about anyone. it is their style. I am not saying Vandeberg is not a good player but his receptions numbers as compared to #2 and #3 WR's are the nature of the beast with relation to targets within their style. I think you have to go back to a year like 2011 when they were loaded at WR with McNutt, Keenan Davis and Martin-Manley at WR to find a time when the TE was not either more influential or near equivalent to the production of the #2 WR in their system.

I have seen NW a few times now and I just don't see the defensive presence this year. I thought Wmich outplayed their defense pretty badly (which I mentioned after holding a NW ticket against Wmich week 1). Their secondary is all banged up though it looks like most will play. They have played 4 straight home games and this is the first roadie. If Nebraska can run for 6.6 yards per carry, I have to think Iowa can generate points here. In regards to the total, I was surprised to see (despite having watched them play quite a bit) that NW is playing extremely fast right now. So while the Iowa pace is slow, the NW pace is not. Could contribute to NW wearing down late on the road.

I just cannot get overly concerned about the primary WR target at iowa, in the form of Vandeberg, in this match up to take me off the play. I just know what I saw last week with regards to NW rush defense and that just doesn't bode well here but maybe they show up and play better and Iowa is always tough to trust offensively. Would be surprised if Iowa fell short of 24 pt output though. 34-17 final.
 
s--k said:
Wondering about the Ore St - CU game....it is hard not to be into what this CU team is doing, but should they be laying 3+ scores to a conference opponent? Not too long ago...like last year, these teams weren't too far apart. CU has grown by leaps and bounds, Ore St has just sprouted a little, but 18.5 now? Was CU-1.5 on the road last year.

The Boise - Ore St line closed at 16 or 17 I think? What is Ore ST HF? 3.5? So Boise 19.5-20.5 vs Ore St neutral field. What is CU HF, about the same? Line at 18.5 right now...so CU is like 15 pt fav on a neutral field to Ore St, does that sound right for a CU vs Boise line - edit I had to fix my math on this~

Does QB for CU matter after what Montez did? QB likely does matter for Beavers, apparently Garretson is going to be the guy, which maybe giving the frosh kid his first road start isn't a good thing to do in terms of pressure on him, but he did provide a spark last week.

Pretty interesting game I think. Can Beavers match the play they had in the 2nd half last week, or is the first half who they actually are? Probably close to the later. CU has been pretty damn impressive all along save the Liufau-less half vs Mich.

Lotta love for CU, and the win at Autzen, but Oregon was knocking on the door for the win. Montez was bad off the bench at Michigan, but alot of QBs would be bad in that spot...what wonders a week of practice will do.

Seems the line has been inflated quite a bit, but people eating it up.
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I have nothing for you with regards to this game, and largely for either of these teams. Oregon State games have been on TV's I just haven't paid a ton of attention to them and boxscore analysis with their games is choppy at best so I just crossed it off early since Colorado has been a team that exceeded my preseason expectations with on the field play pretty heavily while I had an idea they would be markedly better. Just don't have enough knowledge to offer an opinion worth sharing there.
 
Here's to hoping that you hit the Iowa over and Minn/Penn St is a shootout. Power run vs power run old school stuff - sets up nicely, IMO, for an under next week.
 
clowncar said:
The amount of time per play for UNC is still in the top fifth as far as being fast. But two of their three opponents are on the slow side because they love to run the football (UGA Pitt). The interesting part is that the rush defense of UNC is the weak link and they competed pretty much dead even to both of those teams. But when you play teams capable of ball control, it lowers those plays per game as you know so ... I am pretty confident that UNC is going to be top fifth as far as being fast by seasons end too. It is difficult to make sense of the FSU games to a certain extent. They played some really fast paced teams in ole miss and ville and fell behind early. Their amount of time per play is slow. So you are stuck with the situation of having another team capable of running the ball on UNC with D. Cook and company and controlling the clock a little. Before the year started, I would have been on this under the number because of how I had the FSU defense rated but they haven't shown the ability to stop good offense yet, particularly the style that UNC is employing ... while slightly different than ole miss or ville, the similarities are enough to make one think that UNC can put up a number. It's just a really confusing game for me not just with the total but with the side. Decent chance that UNC gets faster as the year goes as Trubisky gets more comfortable too.

Philisophical question for you Timh ... Say you have a team that takes its time more between snaps (FSU) and a team that is relatively quick between snaps (UNC), which team leading lends itself to more pts in the game? If UNC is leading does that make FSU go faster and UNC will go fast anyway or would they slow down? If FSU is leading does it make UNC go that much faster (how much faster are they capable of?) and FSU just take the air out with the run game?

I have already fallen for the FSU defense is good lie twice and almost did it three times. I had under against ole miss (awful bet), I almost took FSU on principle against Ville (awful almost bet) and I took the under against USF (awful bet). Meanwhile, I won with UNC on the over against UGA and the over against Illinois. So I have a bias towards the over in this game because of early outcomes on the personal level too.

UNC isn't going to develop a run defense overnight and fsu can run it well and fsu isn't going to learn how to stop this type of offense overnight either so I would think UNC scores too. I guess I lean over ... but it just isn't my style of over investment and generally feel the total offered is pretty close to mine, particularly for a total that high where the variance matters less for me.

I hate to be answering with a shrug but I just don't have a damn clue on that game.... to include believing there could be extreme volatility when it comes to the pace .. meaning I wouldn't be surprised if it was much faster than I would cap it or much slower than I would cap it. I just have no clue.
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Thanks for your thoughts here Kyle, and I understand your reticence to get involved. I would prefer to see NC jump out and put some points up early in this one, and keep the FSU offense knowing they have to score. If NC down by 3 scores at half, could very well lead to more ground game by FSU in 2h in an attempt to burn clock and minimize TOP and plays for NC.
 
the nw run defense was feast or famine last week, esp in the 1H. lots of short gains and then neb would hit a big one. iowa just doesn't have the explosiveness that neb has, in either the run or the pass game.
 
Last question for ya, CC. If you have a moment, quick hitter on why you passed WMU? Concern over the untested secondary?
 
CrimsonK said:
Last question for ya, CC. If you have a moment, quick hitter on why you passed WMU? Concern over the untested secondary?
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Yes. I considered the over because if Ga Southern can throw on you ....

But thru this short part of the season ..
ga southern 117 in passing offense (best fbs game against wmich)
Illinois 73rd in passing offense (best fbs game against wmich .. 312 yards against wmich just 127 against unc - granted there is incentive to run against unc and incentive to not run against wmich and there was time and score factors in the wmich game)
nwestern 61st in passing offense (not their best fbs game but their 8.9 yards per attempt was the best against an fbs foe)

Cmich 12th in passing offense and over 9 yards per attempt so far.

Wmich is still the better all around team in mind but have to think Rush makes some plays against them in the passing game.

Problem with over was the time between snaps for these two teams .... both slow paced. So it is a case of two offenses that can be efficient but that won't neessarily play at the pace that we might see in most other games. Additionally, this is a big game which I believe tends to favor unders.

960 yards and 80 pts last year.

I think we have seen that cmich just won't quit. So if Wmich gets ahead I will always fear the backdoor. Hell didn't they backdoor last year?
I might talk myself back into an over.
 
clowncar said:
Yes. I considered the over because if Ga Southern can throw on you ....

But thru this short part of the season ..
ga southern 117 in passing offense (best fbs game against wmich)
Illinois 73rd in passing offense (best fbs game against wmich .. 312 yards against wmich just 127 against unc - granted there is incentive to run against unc and incentive to not run against wmich and there was time and score factors in the wmich game)
nwestern 61st in passing offense (not their best fbs game but their 8.9 yards per attempt was the best against an fbs foe)

Cmich 12th in passing offense and over 9 yards per attempt so far.

Wmich is still the better all around team in mind but have to think Rush makes some plays against them in the passing game.

Problem with over was the time between snaps for these two teams .... both slow paced. So it is a case of two offenses that can be efficient but that won't neessarily play at the pace that we might see in most other games. Additionally, this is a big game which I believe tends to favor unders.

960 yards and 80 pts last year.

I think we have seen that cmich just won't quit. So if Wmich gets ahead I will always fear the backdoor. Hell didn't they backdoor last year?
I might talk myself back into an over.
Click to expand...

Thank you. They did back door last year scored several 4Q TD I believe. I don't believe the WMU defense is quite as good as their their numbers, particularly their PPG indicate. They are 84th in S&P+ defense but 35th in PPG allowed so there is likely some regression coming there and points to be conceded, this game looks pretty likely. I watched Fleck's presser after the Ga Southern game and this week before CMU also and you could tell how thrilled and relieved he was to get the win against Ga So - real deceptive scoreline as I believe you indicated in your review. He actually remarked they were the best team they had seen this season (sorry B1G lol) and I think Ga Southern has taken a big step back this year. They are far less disciplined (penalties killing them) and they are still trying to figure out if they are going to be a more pass oriented option team and Upshaw isnt the guy to run that, IMO. Maybe fortunately for them he got hurt last game and Ellison came in and he was the one who threw all over them and he is FAR superior passer but Upshaw's speed is elite. Speaking of elite, if Saban retired tomorrow by second call after Tom Herman would be PJ Fleck - I love that guy. I got off track. My biggest regret this week was passing WMU/CMU O55.5. I nibbled a little WMU ML at a cheaper price and I'll consider the TT's there and maybe add an over if the market bounces back some WMU unders have been driven down past couple weeks.
 
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