time to post my week 4 card so far

Utah should be leading by 6... gotta clean up the penalties and turnovers and blocked field goals lol gl VK thanks for sharing your thoughts with us
 
Man, what a penalty filled game. Utah disappointed me.

Their offensive line play near the goal line was really bad.

Helton is not as good a coach as Whittingham by any stretch of the imagination but he outcoached him tonight.

A lot of weirdness in the game with penalties, and the throw it up for grab plays that went decidedly in USC's favor (Utah with the 1 interception).

Couldn't run on Utah all night until Utah knew they were running on the last drive (suppose they were tired). Just a really odd game.

Starting to line up for UCF because it is hard to see a team making it from the Pac12 now, and I don't think OU is going back. Maybe two SEC teams with LSU, Bama and UGA all in the mix.

But that was a very bad result for the conference.
 
Potential blood bath this week. Just hope to break even tomorrow, particularly since I don't think these weekday games were horribly handicapped. There are going to be horribly handicapped games on the card above so have to hope to get lucky somewhere to make up for the last two nights.

Grats to usc backers. They certainly played closer to their potential than the Utes, though they made a lot of mistakes too.
 
So .. i mentioned above what would be the most obvious concerns to backing a team total under with western michigan ...or what supported the the team total over for western michigan. But now I want to talk about how I think the game plays out ...

Western Michigan's pass offense led by Jon Wassink has been both efficient and explosive at times. Wassink was 20 of 25 for 368 yards against Monmouth, 23 of 37 for 252 against MSU (backup 4/4 33 yards and a td) and 15 of 20 for 244 yards against georgia state. But then I look at how those teams not named Sparty defended the pass .. Monmouth gave up 256 to lafayette, and 398 to Albany so i cannot give Western too much credit. Georgia State gave up 311 to Tennessee and 311 to Furman, but it should be noted Western had a huge lead and called off the dogs or they would have produced more. Against Sparty they had just 352 total yards and 77 or so came on the last drive of the game against backups with backups. Cuse defense isn't sparty but it isn't monmouth or georgia state either.

With Cuse, I simply don't think their defense is as bad as it was against Maryland, or as good as it was vs liberty. And when you look at the Clemson game, the defense actually showed promise in a game where they gave up over 600 yards and 41 points. That seems like an odd statement but when your offense gives you nothing, and you are playing clemson, you are going to eventually wear down and they had 11 first downs and 187 yards against clemson. So there are some obvious concerns with this defense but maybe they aren't really as bad as most think through 3 weeks. Cuse wasn't able to run on the terps or clemson ... but western michigan has been terrible vs the run so far.

I don't think cuse is good enough to look past anyone and they also cannot afford to. A loss to Wmich makes their path to a bowl season pretty slim. I think the team will be motivated. I think they will pound the rock at WMich which will allow them to do what they haven't been able to do aginst fbs competition, run the football. I think they have success but I think it grinds clock more than your average cuse game would. And I think cuse wins by a TD or so.

The other factor you have to take into consideration is the wmich fg game which is questionable at best.

Also, while I don't think cuse will be looking ahead .. wmich has rival cmich on deck for the season opener for the MAC. I actually think they could be more interested in that game some.


And that is how I see it .. .cuse run with success but not super effective .. .the defense will be more like it was against liberty and I think there is a chance wmich is not all that interested in this one comparatively.

All that said, I am not investing in cuse or the under or the wmich tt under.... but that is where I am coming from.
 
Maybe not but that was just crushing for the conference. People are already starting to call the American superior
 
In defense of the PAC the ACC is much, much worse and far less entertaining to watch. It's just cool to trash the PAC right now. But it was really way way cooler back when I was doing it 10 years ago:-)
 
Houston +4.5 loss
Utah -4 loss
Utah 2h loss
Boston College -7 win
Troy -17 win
Washington -5.5 win
Tulsa -3 push
Florida State -6 win
Kentucky 7 loss
texas/ok st over 2h loss
neb/ill over 2h win
neb -10 2h win

6-5-1

week 1 0-0
week 2 0-0
week 3 9-4
week 4 6-5-1

Crazy week. I won't recap until Monday or Tuesday. I think the boxscores will flatter almost all of my bets this week so it is kind of disappointing to have those results but after the 0-3 weekday start it was a nice Saturday. Ironically, overall I didn't do a good job of handicapping this week. Just a lot of weirdness imo.
 
Hell, VK when you do mediocre you are better than 99% of rest of us.

By the way, Hermann alone kept the Texas game under...he really disappointed me in fourth quarter. Not b/c of the Over but bc he tried to "not lose" and by doing so almost cost his team the game
 
Hell, VK when you do mediocre you are better than 99% of rest of us.

By the way, Hermann alone kept the Texas game under...he really disappointed me in fourth quarter. Not b/c of the Over but bc he tried to "not lose" and by doing so almost cost his team the game
I had TT 2h so was furious obviously... And almost wanted it to bite Herman in ass.
 
The short yardage fails by OSU that allowed for that were a problem. The review that put OSU short and then the fail, I knew it was uphill from there, Bones. Hermann didn't help.
 
Let's grade it.

Utah -4 Loser (Grade B) Utah -4 2H (Grade C) - Utah with a 27 - 16 first down advantage, and a 457 to 381 yardage advantage. Several things came into play with this game as the Utah secondary continually got burned and seemed inept at playing the ball in the air. USC offense, apparently smartly, consisted of throwing the ball up for grabs and having the WR win the one on one, which worked. The Trojans even completed two long pass on slant and go's where the QB threw into double coverage. It was just really weird. On one of the USC TD's the QB spun out of a sack and threw it up for grabs for the score. Utah, in the traditional sense, dominated the play overall. Key goal line play calling by Utah and the big plays, and the 16 penalties for 120 yards are what kept Utah from winning. I cannot be mad about placing these two bets, though I was disappointed that Utah didn't make the adjustments it needed to. USC had 22 yards rushing in the game. On their final drive to go to knees, they rushed it 5 times for 22 yards when Utah knew they were going to be running. I suppose they were tired by that point but that was just more weirdness.

Houston +4.5 (Grade A+) - I think this was probably my best handicapped game of the week. Houston with a 533 to 511 yardage advantage despite giving up the fluke long pass at the end. Houston averaged more per rush than Tulane, had a 28-23 first down edge, and had a 28-7 lead in the second quarter. King played well the first two quarters until he missed an uncovered guy in the end zone at the tail end of the first half leading to a key missed FG by the Houston kicker. In fact, FG kicking was a problem all night as I think there were four kicks and they all had the exact opposite result of what a Houston backer was cheering for at the time they were kicked. Tulane did miss some opportunities first half with some drops and bad throws and Houston did appear to tire (played a lot of games in a short period of time but you would have thought tulane would have been tired after how Houston controlled the first half) defensively. Dana went ultra conservative with the play calling in the third quarter which let Tulane back into the game. The Houston speed was an issue for Tulane defensively and quite frankly, the houston offensive line actually performed better than my expectation. The sequence of events needed for this to not cash was borderline unbelievable. Anyway, it was a really well handicapped game, but after winning the play on the field with a 4 point favorite in Utah and a 4.5 point dog in Houston and sitting at 0-3 heading into the weekend, I was sort of prepared for a bloodbath week.

Boston College -7 win (Grade Cplus) - From a full game perspective, I think this might have been my worst capped game of the week. BC had a 27-14 FD advantage but only outgained Rutgers by 50 yards or so. The BC tackling was ponderous at times but Rutgers ineptness tended to wash that out as they had 11 penalties for 100 yards or so. The BC QB is not very good with accuracy, or decision making. The main reason that BC covered was because of a fumble deep in Rutgers territory that set up BC with a short field. I came away from the game, entirely unimpressed with Boston College. Luckily for them they play in the ACC, which if you took away Clemson would be worse than the Pac12 in my estimation. Conference is loaded with mediocre to poor football teams.

Troy -17 win (grade Aplus) - 32-10 first down edge, 485 to 242 yardage edge. Akron is a bad football team. No need for further elaboration as you cannot look at the game and make conclusions about Troy.

FSU -6 win (grade B+) - FSU was dominant first half but let Louisville get some life right before halftime as they had a 21-0 lead, missed a fg, allowed 4 third down conversions (1 by penalty) to ville on a Cardinals TD drive that cut it to 21-7 and then missed another FG. As usual, Willie T was outcoached at halftime and Louisville actually fought back to take the lead 24-21 before Louisville just blew a coverage for a Seminole TD and FSU went on to control the game from there down the stretch. This team is very frustrating in a similar way to how Michigan is a frustrating team to their fans .... somehow the sum of the individual talent is not translating to the football field. This team has a lot of potential but they do all the little things wrong. I also am beginning to question their conditioning. Just a really odd team. Had Pass started instead of cunningham this may have turned out differently. Just dominated ville early though.

Washington -5.5 win (Grade A) - This was a good bet, but I will say the final score is kind of deceiving imo. Washington didn't exactly dominate the way you might think. 27-21 FD edge and 477-356 yardage edge meant that the bet was good but probably also means that the 45-19 is deceiving. I watched a good bit of this game and I have to admit that I have a mancrush on the BYU QB. He makes a lot of good plays for that club that otherwise isn't super talented offensively. He is really fun to watch and a special player imo. I also came away with a little more appreciation for Eason. The big play was a fumble return for a TD when BYU was driving and that made it an uphill climb for Cougar backers from that point forward. The rare relaxing win of week 4 ...

Tulsa -3 (push) (Grade Bplus) - This was also a good bet in my estimation. I do feel bad as I got a juiced 3 on this game which didn't last the day so I type this realizing that if you tailed, you probably lost. Tulsa with a 27-16 fd edge and 437-357 yardage edge, and had a 10 point lead heading into the fourth quarter. Wyoming found its offense in the fourth quarter with 92, 50 and 52 yard drives (do the math from the 357 total to see how bad they were for three quarters). Wyoming did shut down the run good. just another late collapse for the team I bet. I would bet this again in a heartbeat but I cannot give it above a Bplus for how it actually played out yesterday.

Kentucky 7 loss (Grade C) - Mississippi State with a 22-21 fd edge, and a 421-386 yardage advantage which generally, I would say is good for the dog of a TD or more. But the boxscore also doesn't tell the full story as Kentucky trailed all game which tends to even up a box score (see ville fsu above). State appeared to have more energy from the get go and to UK's credit they fought back. They fell behind early due to a defensive score for MSU, and two long State drives in the second quarter. One of the real crushing blows was UK settling for a very short fg attempt down 21-10 which they proceeded to miss and it sort of eliminated much chance of them winning and hurt some of the momentum they had generated at that time. They then drove down into the RZ again for what I thought at the time would be a game covering TD but settled for a FG from the Miss State 11. Mississipi State would break off a huge run while trying to get first downs to end it and add a TD. Hard to think this was a bad play as MissState caught the breaks, UK was a little flat (in my opinion) and the backdoor appeared available late even as it was. I went ahead and gave myself a C for this one even though boxscore says it was better than that, as I took game situation into account.

Texas OSU 2h over 34.5 loss (Grade C) - There were opportunities as on Oklahoma State's first drive of the second half they moved it down inside the Texas 10 but had to settle for a FG (interesting third down play call by Gundy). two and a half minutes later, Texas hit a trick play for a 25 yard TD and I thought "ok we are in business now" Then the key drive of the second half occurred. On third and 11 from the Texas 13, Sanders appeared to run for a first down to the Texas 2 but after review settled, the ball was placed for a 4th and 1 on the Texas 3 (I agreed with the spot so not complaining). OSU rightly went for it but failed which 1. was likely a 7 pt difference by math 2. took away the impetus for Texas to try and score (will get to this more later) and 3. kept Texas pinned. It basically crushed the 2h bet. After an interception oklahoma state would have it again in scoring position but attempted a fake fg which failed. So after all that opportunity and failure deep in Texas territory, the longhorns went conservative most of the rest of the game rather than having impetus to score, which I believe they would have if forced. Their conservative nature almost cost them the game and if this week should teach these coaches anything, it is that no lead is safe in college football anymore .... there are just too many advantages for the offenses so that if you stop scoring, you leave the door open. While the pace wasn't exactly what I was hoping for, the number of plays for the half turned out ok for the bet. Shrug. hard to grade because after that one OkSt drive that failed, I never really thought this was cashing.

Neb 2h -10, Neb/Illy 2h over 30.5 both wins (Both Aplus) - No need to go into this other than to say that Nebraska dominated the entire football game and there won't be many, if any, more deceiving scores from the day. Second half bet was great and if you had Nebraska for the full game you must be sick this morning.

so here is the thing, I obviously capped my full unit bets well (what I post here excluding a few halftimes that I don't have time to post) but my overall capping of the weeks card showed huge variance between my expectation and the actual results. Granted it was one of the oddest days I can recall in college football but I was way off on a few things. So while an outsider might look at the weeks picks here and think I saw it all great, that wasn't the case for the week in general and had I used the shotgun approach I did last year trying to get a play in on almost every game, I would have been slaughtered. That said, I did a good job with what I posted here at CTG, which is probably all you care about (if at all) if you are reading my thread.
 
Also apologies to Dopples as I was wrong about the Western Michigan Team Total. While they barely went over that number, they could have easily scored another 14-17 points in that game. I was trying to be talked off of that game not trying to talk anyone onto it. That said, I post my opinion and sometimes my opinion is dead wrong so I have to accept that and so does anyone who takes my opinion into account. I am pretty sure it has paid dividends for folks over the years in aggregate though. Still, I hate seeing that you took the team total under big when you liked the other side, and that I had anything to do with it. Cause your original view was correct and my view of how the game would play out was not.
 
I was nervous but with some level of confidence Nebraska would win by 4, which is what the -10 2nd H required. I tell you what, when ILL blk'd that xpt it about went off track which forced Nebraska to get the 2pt conversion on their next TD, that was a big moment. It wouldn't have mattered if they would've made that FG at the end, which they didn't. But thankfully they covered.

Nebraska does have potential, they can be good if they ever play fully to that level.
 
I think your recap on OKST/Tex game is right on point. Unfortunately I had a bad number on Tex -7, and I just knew they were going to fuck me the way that they went into a shell offensively in the 2H sitting on the lead. That one and Tulsa -3.5 were enough to fuck up my week.
 
I think your recap on OKST/Tex game is right on point. Unfortunately I had a bad number on Tex -7, and I just knew they were going to fuck me the way that they went into a shell offensively in the 2H sitting on the lead. That one and Tulsa -3.5 were enough to fuck up my week.

You were on the right side of both obviously. There were quite a few screwjobs this week .. almost like it was bowl season.
 
My opinion, people play what they play. To come into a thread and try and make somebody else feel bad or guilty for what they decided to do lacks accountability for one's own decisions and knowledge base.
:tiphat3:
Bing fing O.
Exactly.
 
Some fun stats on USC/Utah...

Since 2004, teams are now 98-1,635 when getting outrushed by at least 200 yards in FBS vs FBS games.

USC's 13 rushing yards ties for the fewest in a WIN over a top-10 team in the AP Poll in the last 15 seasons.

I played Utah big and I don't regret doing so and certainly the above stats reinforce that. But when evaluating plays I always ask myself if I would make the same play again? Given what I saw from Utah's coaching and secondary I really don't think I would. SC's wr's are very good and Utah had FCS caliber athletes flailing away at jump balls. It was a horror show effort. SC wr's vs Cal secondary could be an interesting matchup as I expect Cal to fare much better but who knows.
 
Some fun stats on USC/Utah...

Since 2004, teams are now 98-1,635 when getting outrushed by at least 200 yards in FBS vs FBS games.

USC's 13 rushing yards ties for the fewest in a WIN over a top-10 team in the AP Poll in the last 15 seasons.

I played Utah big and I don't regret doing so and certainly the above stats reinforce that. But when evaluating plays I always ask myself if I would make the same play again? Given what I saw from Utah's coaching and secondary I really don't think I would. SC's wr's are very good and Utah had FCS caliber athletes flailing away at jump balls. It was a horror show effort. SC wr's vs Cal secondary could be an interesting matchup as I expect Cal to fare much better but who knows.
Amazing stuff. You couldn't cap the coaching mismatch in this Game. Well you could, but you would of had it backwards!
 
I love VK, hes really a brilliant mind when u think about it. My team likes to see who hes on too.

one of the few sharps who still post for us bafoons.
 
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