Let's grade it.
Utah -4 Loser (Grade B) Utah -4 2H (Grade C) - Utah with a 27 - 16 first down advantage, and a 457 to 381 yardage advantage. Several things came into play with this game as the Utah secondary continually got burned and seemed inept at playing the ball in the air. USC offense, apparently smartly, consisted of throwing the ball up for grabs and having the WR win the one on one, which worked. The Trojans even completed two long pass on slant and go's where the QB threw into double coverage. It was just really weird. On one of the USC TD's the QB spun out of a sack and threw it up for grabs for the score. Utah, in the traditional sense, dominated the play overall. Key goal line play calling by Utah and the big plays, and the 16 penalties for 120 yards are what kept Utah from winning. I cannot be mad about placing these two bets, though I was disappointed that Utah didn't make the adjustments it needed to. USC had 22 yards rushing in the game. On their final drive to go to knees, they rushed it 5 times for 22 yards when Utah knew they were going to be running. I suppose they were tired by that point but that was just more weirdness.
Houston +4.5 (Grade A+) - I think this was probably my best handicapped game of the week. Houston with a 533 to 511 yardage advantage despite giving up the fluke long pass at the end. Houston averaged more per rush than Tulane, had a 28-23 first down edge, and had a 28-7 lead in the second quarter. King played well the first two quarters until he missed an uncovered guy in the end zone at the tail end of the first half leading to a key missed FG by the Houston kicker. In fact, FG kicking was a problem all night as I think there were four kicks and they all had the exact opposite result of what a Houston backer was cheering for at the time they were kicked. Tulane did miss some opportunities first half with some drops and bad throws and Houston did appear to tire (played a lot of games in a short period of time but you would have thought tulane would have been tired after how Houston controlled the first half) defensively. Dana went ultra conservative with the play calling in the third quarter which let Tulane back into the game. The Houston speed was an issue for Tulane defensively and quite frankly, the houston offensive line actually performed better than my expectation. The sequence of events needed for this to not cash was borderline unbelievable. Anyway, it was a really well handicapped game, but after winning the play on the field with a 4 point favorite in Utah and a 4.5 point dog in Houston and sitting at 0-3 heading into the weekend, I was sort of prepared for a bloodbath week.
Boston College -7 win (Grade Cplus) - From a full game perspective, I think this might have been my worst capped game of the week. BC had a 27-14 FD advantage but only outgained Rutgers by 50 yards or so. The BC tackling was ponderous at times but Rutgers ineptness tended to wash that out as they had 11 penalties for 100 yards or so. The BC QB is not very good with accuracy, or decision making. The main reason that BC covered was because of a fumble deep in Rutgers territory that set up BC with a short field. I came away from the game, entirely unimpressed with Boston College. Luckily for them they play in the ACC, which if you took away Clemson would be worse than the Pac12 in my estimation. Conference is loaded with mediocre to poor football teams.
Troy -17 win (grade Aplus) - 32-10 first down edge, 485 to 242 yardage edge. Akron is a bad football team. No need for further elaboration as you cannot look at the game and make conclusions about Troy.
FSU -6 win (grade B+) - FSU was dominant first half but let Louisville get some life right before halftime as they had a 21-0 lead, missed a fg, allowed 4 third down conversions (1 by penalty) to ville on a Cardinals TD drive that cut it to 21-7 and then missed another FG. As usual, Willie T was outcoached at halftime and Louisville actually fought back to take the lead 24-21 before Louisville just blew a coverage for a Seminole TD and FSU went on to control the game from there down the stretch. This team is very frustrating in a similar way to how Michigan is a frustrating team to their fans .... somehow the sum of the individual talent is not translating to the football field. This team has a lot of potential but they do all the little things wrong. I also am beginning to question their conditioning. Just a really odd team. Had Pass started instead of cunningham this may have turned out differently. Just dominated ville early though.
Washington -5.5 win (Grade A) - This was a good bet, but I will say the final score is kind of deceiving imo. Washington didn't exactly dominate the way you might think. 27-21 FD edge and 477-356 yardage edge meant that the bet was good but probably also means that the 45-19 is deceiving. I watched a good bit of this game and I have to admit that I have a mancrush on the BYU QB. He makes a lot of good plays for that club that otherwise isn't super talented offensively. He is really fun to watch and a special player imo. I also came away with a little more appreciation for Eason. The big play was a fumble return for a TD when BYU was driving and that made it an uphill climb for Cougar backers from that point forward. The rare relaxing win of week 4 ...
Tulsa -3 (push) (Grade Bplus) - This was also a good bet in my estimation. I do feel bad as I got a juiced 3 on this game which didn't last the day so I type this realizing that if you tailed, you probably lost. Tulsa with a 27-16 fd edge and 437-357 yardage edge, and had a 10 point lead heading into the fourth quarter. Wyoming found its offense in the fourth quarter with 92, 50 and 52 yard drives (do the math from the 357 total to see how bad they were for three quarters). Wyoming did shut down the run good. just another late collapse for the team I bet. I would bet this again in a heartbeat but I cannot give it above a Bplus for how it actually played out yesterday.
Kentucky 7 loss (Grade C) - Mississippi State with a 22-21 fd edge, and a 421-386 yardage advantage which generally, I would say is good for the dog of a TD or more. But the boxscore also doesn't tell the full story as Kentucky trailed all game which tends to even up a box score (see ville fsu above). State appeared to have more energy from the get go and to UK's credit they fought back. They fell behind early due to a defensive score for MSU, and two long State drives in the second quarter. One of the real crushing blows was UK settling for a very short fg attempt down 21-10 which they proceeded to miss and it sort of eliminated much chance of them winning and hurt some of the momentum they had generated at that time. They then drove down into the RZ again for what I thought at the time would be a game covering TD but settled for a FG from the Miss State 11. Mississipi State would break off a huge run while trying to get first downs to end it and add a TD. Hard to think this was a bad play as MissState caught the breaks, UK was a little flat (in my opinion) and the backdoor appeared available late even as it was. I went ahead and gave myself a C for this one even though boxscore says it was better than that, as I took game situation into account.
Texas OSU 2h over 34.5 loss (Grade C) - There were opportunities as on Oklahoma State's first drive of the second half they moved it down inside the Texas 10 but had to settle for a FG (interesting third down play call by Gundy). two and a half minutes later, Texas hit a trick play for a 25 yard TD and I thought "ok we are in business now" Then the key drive of the second half occurred. On third and 11 from the Texas 13, Sanders appeared to run for a first down to the Texas 2 but after review settled, the ball was placed for a 4th and 1 on the Texas 3 (I agreed with the spot so not complaining). OSU rightly went for it but failed which 1. was likely a 7 pt difference by math 2. took away the impetus for Texas to try and score (will get to this more later) and 3. kept Texas pinned. It basically crushed the 2h bet. After an interception oklahoma state would have it again in scoring position but attempted a fake fg which failed. So after all that opportunity and failure deep in Texas territory, the longhorns went conservative most of the rest of the game rather than having impetus to score, which I believe they would have if forced. Their conservative nature almost cost them the game and if this week should teach these coaches anything, it is that no lead is safe in college football anymore .... there are just too many advantages for the offenses so that if you stop scoring, you leave the door open. While the pace wasn't exactly what I was hoping for, the number of plays for the half turned out ok for the bet. Shrug. hard to grade because after that one OkSt drive that failed, I never really thought this was cashing.
Neb 2h -10, Neb/Illy 2h over 30.5 both wins (Both Aplus) - No need to go into this other than to say that Nebraska dominated the entire football game and there won't be many, if any, more deceiving scores from the day. Second half bet was great and if you had Nebraska for the full game you must be sick this morning.
so here is the thing, I obviously capped my full unit bets well (what I post here excluding a few halftimes that I don't have time to post) but my overall capping of the weeks card showed huge variance between my expectation and the actual results. Granted it was one of the oddest days I can recall in college football but I was way off on a few things. So while an outsider might look at the weeks picks here and think I saw it all great, that wasn't the case for the week in general and had I used the shotgun approach I did last year trying to get a play in on almost every game, I would have been slaughtered. That said, I did a good job with what I posted here at CTG, which is probably all you care about (if at all) if you are reading my thread.