time to post my week 4 card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
D
Dos_Equis_Guy
Guest
They're going from seeing Air Raid to a triple option offense. That is an almost impossible adjustment to make in 1 week as a defensive player. Houston also can't stop the run for shit. Since I didn't bet this last May I got -5. Tulane has a pretty good defense in my opinion.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Well fellas .. I am hoping people are playing Tulane due to the bowl game last year which I just threw out as the team was going through some things there. They faced the option two other times and held navy and tulane to right around 5 yards a carry. i realize this is a different DL but both of those performances held those option teams under their average. In addition, when you look at the Houston rush numbers from last year, I think you have to factor in that they played a bunch of option squads. This is a class drop too. While I like the front seven some for Tulane ... that auburn offense they shut down somewhat is an offense that didn't reach 400 yards in more than half of their games last year and two of three this year. It isn't exactly a juggernaut. I think Houston also rates to improve a little as the year goes under willie wonka. Houston averaged a yard better per play in the game last year and I just think you have to prove this to me. A couple weeks ago this team was a three point favorite to FIU and now a 5 point favorite to Houston ... why? Because they were competitive with Auburn in a classic letdown spot for the Tigers off the Oregon win and Houston has been beaten by Oklahoma and Washington State. I think there are some advantages on the outside for Houston if King can find his accuracy (which hasn't exactly been good so far). I also think they have a good backdoor offense if it comes to that. If they can contain that front of Tulane and give him time .. or if he can tire them with his scrambling, I think they can have enough success. Also have to think after what Army did that they are focused here ... plus the conference opener. You can likely kiss a bowl game goodbye with a loss here .. this season would fall off the rails .. so I think coaches should be locked in.
I got to take a shot with it and if it is Army all over again .. well then ... I was wrong.
I got to take a shot with it and if it is Army all over again .. well then ... I was wrong.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Just curious as to which book you use, because I played this on Sunday as I was prepared when the lines first came out at BOL and I got Tulane -2 110. It then went from 2.5 to 3 to 3.5 to 4 before settling in at the current 5, so that's why I was curious about your book.
CB
Ruger35
Pretty much a regular
Seeing Utah down to 3.5, may have to get in.
D
Dos_Equis_Guy
Guest
Sounds like I need to get a BetOnline account. I've had several bad experiences with other online shops to want to deposit more funds offshore. I have a local out where the lines don't come out nearly as early.
Feel free to PM myself or @scarf31 and we can help you out with any questions etc. Scarf has a very good handle on the current landscape of the industry.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Lots of potential value to be had if you are prepared and ready to go when the lines start to hit as it is fast and furious to say the least. Sometimes lines may only be available for a few seconds before they move, so the key is to have your hit lines made out beforehand, or otherwise you will miss out and be left frustrated at getting lines 3-5 points worse than other guys who are more prepared.
If you have any questions, feel free to reach out anytime.
CB
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I'd say no. Any comparisons to option teams is pretty irrelevant to what Tulane is going with McMillan. Tulane doesn't look anything like Navy or even Tulane of 2017.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I know some in here won't or don't but I would still say there are a lot of option principles in that offense.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Not sure that is accurate Spek. They started slow vs Oklahoma which isn't that surprising to me. It was King's first game since he got injured against Tulane last November. And I have to wonder if that is not some additional motivation for him in this one. But anyway, King back from injury and new coaching staff and they basically started producing offensively from mid-second quarter on and the offense performed just fine in the first half against Washington State.
I think the defense is a big concern .. Oklahoma and Washington State are 1 and 2 in yards per play offense and both played Houston. So you have to wonder if Houston's defense is just terrible ... or at least not very good .... but it may also mean that Houston has played some powerhouse offenses. Moreover, I think both had advantages in the pass game that opened up the run game for them. I wouldn't be surprised if Tulane hit a few big plays in the pass game but they aren't OU or Washington St in that capacity.
But I disagree about when their offense occurred .. I think it has been pretty much ok other than King simply isn't as accurate or hasn't taken to the offense just yet. He is basically what is holding them back right now and he was very good last year prior to injury. When he has a good game they will erupt .. if he has a good game.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Some of the basic principles are there. They line up with a guy on the wing a lot and motion him or don't motion him sometimes, with one back behind. So it isn't traditional or like you said, even the version they were running two years ago but there is some option there.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I don't like how my post sounded, no disrespect intended. I have much respect for you VK.
They are just so multiple now. They do zone read, they do RPO, they have a vertical passing game. And they might still do some of the stuff they used to, but it is more of a wrinkle now than something they base their offense around. So I don't see alot of value in comparing how Houston fairs against teams that run 'triple option' and what comes to mind with that. The fact that Fritz has handed over the keys to the OC from Memphis, their O is really evolved quite a bit from where they were.
Agree value is definitely on the Houston side with the spread where it's at.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I think it is fair to point out they are not traditional option play in play out anymore, or that it is even not the primary set anymore, given the discussion so far. No worries, sk. Nothing but love for you and your passion for the game.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I like Tulsa too. Question for you, how do you react when you see a game like Idaho at Wyoming and the result that came of it?
For me, I like Tulsa in this game, I like their D, I like their O, I like the line, but I see Wyoming play a bad game and I believe that they will play better this week because of it and then I second guess what I thought I liked. Or do you see that game and believe more often than not that it is an indication of some negative issues that will carry over? I personally would rather have had Wyoming play a better game coming in here because I am fearful that the team and coaches saw they play like shit last game and they will work harder this week because of it and more likely to win off a bad game and more likely to lose off a better game.
Probably the hardest thing I cope with. Believing in what happened last game(s) vs expecting what a team might do and show up improved because of an underwelming game the week prior.
For me, I like Tulsa in this game, I like their D, I like their O, I like the line, but I see Wyoming play a bad game and I believe that they will play better this week because of it and then I second guess what I thought I liked. Or do you see that game and believe more often than not that it is an indication of some negative issues that will carry over? I personally would rather have had Wyoming play a better game coming in here because I am fearful that the team and coaches saw they play like shit last game and they will work harder this week because of it and more likely to win off a bad game and more likely to lose off a better game.
Probably the hardest thing I cope with. Believing in what happened last game(s) vs expecting what a team might do and show up improved because of an underwelming game the week prior.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
It depends on the team and the situation for me. It's like pornography ... It is hard to define what it is but I know it when I see it.
In the case of Wyoming, I think there is evidence that it was more than a bad game.
Mizz 28 Wyo 16 first downs
Mizz 537 Wyo 389 yards (136 yards on two plays for Wyo - 253 on the other 56 plays.
Wyoming won
Tex st 27 wyo 16 fd
tex st 444 wyo 293 yards
Wyoming won
Idaho 21 wyo 17 fd
idaho 303 wyo 287 yards
Wyoming won
Some evidence this team is getting extremely lucky.
Even more evidence that they are not actually very good.
So when I see a team play three bad games in a row, I have to ask why I expect them to suddenly get mad about it and play well. So in the case of Wyoming I don't really see a team playing a "bad" game as much as I see a team that is playing bad.
If they choose a road game at Tulsa the week before their conference opener as the game they wake up, then so be it.
The line means they think Wyoming is about equal to Tulsa and I just think that is ridiculous, personally... at least based on what we know so far... or at least what I think I know so far.
In the case of Wyoming, I think there is evidence that it was more than a bad game.
Mizz 28 Wyo 16 first downs
Mizz 537 Wyo 389 yards (136 yards on two plays for Wyo - 253 on the other 56 plays.
Wyoming won
Tex st 27 wyo 16 fd
tex st 444 wyo 293 yards
Wyoming won
Idaho 21 wyo 17 fd
idaho 303 wyo 287 yards
Wyoming won
Some evidence this team is getting extremely lucky.
Even more evidence that they are not actually very good.
So when I see a team play three bad games in a row, I have to ask why I expect them to suddenly get mad about it and play well. So in the case of Wyoming I don't really see a team playing a "bad" game as much as I see a team that is playing bad.
If they choose a road game at Tulsa the week before their conference opener as the game they wake up, then so be it.
The line means they think Wyoming is about equal to Tulsa and I just think that is ridiculous, personally... at least based on what we know so far... or at least what I think I know so far.
Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
Any thoughts on Mich/Wisc or Miami/CMU?
bull
Coattailing Cheerleader
You have my blessing on Houston, Utah, Troy, Wash, Tulsa, and Florida. Leaning UK.
I don't trust B C after last week's horrible showing. Cant say much for Rutgers, either. GL
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Did you run a model on HOU/Tul? Seeing 13.5 Hou 1H TT. Houston hasn't faired well 1st qtr, but this seems low to me. If King will play to his strength, I cant see how this is not a winner.
Oh, and GL this week. Have a similar card. Took BC too. Seems the gamblers agree. Line up 1.5 since I placed the wager.
Oh, and GL this week. Have a similar card. Took BC too. Seems the gamblers agree. Line up 1.5 since I placed the wager.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Depending on weather, I lean over on the Michigan Wisconsin game but decided to sit it out. I don't have a strong opinion on the other game.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I just make my numbers and go from there.
I actually made the total a little lower than what it is now. I very briefly discussed this game with D$ and he mentioned that the biggest concern with Tulane defensively could be matching up with Houstons team speed, which I agree with but that there was a chance that Tulane defensive line could slow down the Houston running game, which I also agreed with. Whether you back Houston or Houston to generate points, I think it is a game where you NEED King to have a good game. I think there are reasons for hope ... extra motivation for him and another game under the belt with new coaches. I just have to ask what this line would be week 1 .... and think it is a little unreasonable to make a sweeping adjustment to the value of that Houston team because they did what we would expect the first few weeks (though I admit they look far less efficient and explosive offensively so far to my eye).
I have a feeling you may be able to see the answer to whether their speed is going to give tulane problems or not very early so it might be better just to see how that matchup pans out and bet live if you have that option.
Should be interesting.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Love me sum live on this one
D
dopples
Guest
quick thoughts on western michigan team total under, i was going to slam the over. what am i so wrong about because you're way better than me.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
A game I just want to talk about, not sure I want to bet it, but what do you make of Temple at Buffalo?
I am pretty hung up on this number.
Buffalo lost a lot, Jackson and Osborne on O and 3 of top 4 tklrs on D. But man home dogging Leipold by 2 TDs vs a team he beat last year? I guess, I do want to bet it, Buffalo. Everyone saw last week Owls are still Temple tough on D in Philly. So our friend Virginia Cavs likes to mention "recency basis", UB just lost at Liberty and everyone saw (or highlights and headlines of) Temple beating Maryland (who were all the talk).
Line seems inflated.
UB showed well at Penn State and this far into Leipold's tenure they shouldn't be garbage even if reloading at some key positions.
Can UB run on Temple....after Maryland couldn't?
Interesting revenge angle...NIU upset UB in MAC Title game. Doubt it means anything to these players and coaches though. But with that said, outside of last year's game there is some unique familiarity between these staffs from the MAC games they've played. '18 and '17 UB / NIU games were both 1 pt games....and that '17 game was without Jackson.
I am pretty hung up on this number.
Buffalo lost a lot, Jackson and Osborne on O and 3 of top 4 tklrs on D. But man home dogging Leipold by 2 TDs vs a team he beat last year? I guess, I do want to bet it, Buffalo. Everyone saw last week Owls are still Temple tough on D in Philly. So our friend Virginia Cavs likes to mention "recency basis", UB just lost at Liberty and everyone saw (or highlights and headlines of) Temple beating Maryland (who were all the talk).
Line seems inflated.
UB showed well at Penn State and this far into Leipold's tenure they shouldn't be garbage even if reloading at some key positions.
Can UB run on Temple....after Maryland couldn't?
Interesting revenge angle...NIU upset UB in MAC Title game. Doubt it means anything to these players and coaches though. But with that said, outside of last year's game there is some unique familiarity between these staffs from the MAC games they've played. '18 and '17 UB / NIU games were both 1 pt games....and that '17 game was without Jackson.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
With regard to Western Michigan...
here are some things that support the concept of Western Mich team total over
1. Had over 600 yards and 42 points against cuse last year
2. They had 694 last week, and 352 the week prior at Michigan State (which isn't that bad)
3. Wassink has been playing excellent
4. Cuse rates to score so Western will have impetus all game
5. Syracuse has given up 19 plays of 20 yards or greater already this year
6. Potential for pace
I will post some of my thoughts on that game tomorrow along with my thoughts on Buffalo V Temple. The game tonight actually reminded me of the MAC championship game s--k ... turn your head for a second and somehow you lose something that seemed impossible to lose.
Anyway, the houston loss has taken some of my steam out tonight so I will respond tomorrow.
here are some things that support the concept of Western Mich team total over
1. Had over 600 yards and 42 points against cuse last year
2. They had 694 last week, and 352 the week prior at Michigan State (which isn't that bad)
3. Wassink has been playing excellent
4. Cuse rates to score so Western will have impetus all game
5. Syracuse has given up 19 plays of 20 yards or greater already this year
6. Potential for pace
I will post some of my thoughts on that game tomorrow along with my thoughts on Buffalo V Temple. The game tonight actually reminded me of the MAC championship game s--k ... turn your head for a second and somehow you lose something that seemed impossible to lose.
Anyway, the houston loss has taken some of my steam out tonight so I will respond tomorrow.
Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
So you like the WM TT over ? Original post says under. Game over 65 look good?
Thanks for you thoughts
Thanks for you thoughts
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
Yeah, that Houston game was a brutal beat... and that's coming from someone who was on Tulane -3 large. I almost feel guilty winning that.
takeit
THE Wife
Way to kick a man when he's down
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
For you, after that Houston loss. Hope it eases the pain
D
dopples
Guest
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Pointing out what backs up the over. I will post some thoughts on how i see the game playing out tonight or tomorrow morning. Sorry I am overloaded with work and last night demoralized me on college football. Won't wear off until kickoff tonight
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
When did they change the packaging?....
takeit
THE Wife
Does it not match the one in your bedroom?
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Mine is black with little yellow dots mixed in.
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
how?
D
dopples
Guest
thank you VK
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
Lol. Wasn't my intention at all.
VK: i apologize if i came off like an asshole. Not my intention at all.
Last edited:
