time to post my week 4 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Sides 27-18
Totals 13-20
Halftimes 8-2
Overall 48-40

Sides were ok. halftimes were ok. but neither was enough to overcome how bad the totals went. I have been putting a great deal of emphasis on pace (estimated plays in the game vs total) and maybe not enough into the match ups. In one instance, the most important player for my over bet didn't play and I never revisited it later in the week so maybe I missed something. Anyway, onto this week. Right now these are all played small.

locked in


ATS
Michigan -9.5 winner 1-0
Boston College 35 winner 2-0
Nebraska -13.5 loser 2-1
Akron 15.5 winner 3-1
Washington -10 4-1
Utah -3 winner 5-1
wbgvu -20.5 winner 6-1
Notre Dame -3 winner 7-1
Miami Ohio ML 110 winner (threw it in here) 8-1
Sides 35-19

Totals
Bama/Vandy under 43.5 loser 0-1
Virginia/Boise St over 51.5 winner 1-1
Army/Tulane under 46 winner 2-1
wbgvu/Kansas over 68.5 winner 3-1
ncsu/fsu under 51.5 winner 4-1
Pitt/Gtech under 59 winner 5-1
Idaho/Sbama Under 55 winner 6-1
UCF/Maryland Under 67.5 winner 7-1
cinci/Navy under 52.5 loser 7-2
TCU/Okst under 69 loser 7-3
sdsu/afa under 47 loser 7-4
miss st/uga under 48.5 winner 8-4
utahst/sjsu under 58 loser 8-5
psu/iowa under 52.5 winner 9-5
Nd/msu under 54 loser 9-6
UCLA/Stanford under 63.5 loser 9-7
Totals 22-27
Halftimes
2h Arizona 2.5 0-1
Gt/pitt under 28 winner 1-1
Halftimes 9-3

Strong leans
Notre Dame -3.5
Arkansas 3
Ncstate 11.5

TMO
None
 
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gl VK....if you get a second..would love to hear your thought as I was leaning towards Purdue with the points...
 
I had eyed Akron as well. Does something seem off to you with Troy this year or what is your motivation on that one?
 
I just think akron is better than they have shown more than anything else. But also have troy in a nonconference game as a big favorite the week before lsu whereas akron should care.
 
Totals

Virginia/Boise St over 51.5
Army/Tulane under 46
wbgvu/Kansas over 68.5
ncsu/fsu under 51.5
Pitt/Gtech under 59
Idaho/Sbama Under 55
UCF/Maryland Under 67.5
cinci/Navy under 52.5
TCU/Okst under 69
sdsu/afa under 47
miss st/uga under 48.5
utahst/sjsu under 58
psu/iowa under 52.5
Nd/msu under 54
UCLA/Stanford under 63.5
 
vk said:
Add (forgot to list)

Alabama/Vandy Under 43.5
Click to expand...

Think this is the right play, because to get to the over, I think you need Alabama at 35+. Depending on the LB injury situation, I could see Vanderbilt having more success running the ball than one would normally have against the Bama D, thus shortening the game. And if Alabama gets a healthy lead, they will definitely look to keep the clock moving. This one smells like a 27-7 type game to me. I don't like taking unders this low in NCAA though. My under 49.5 in the UF/UT game last week was absolutely the correct bet, and only a hail mary as time expired kept it from going over in OT
 
like the look on the card so far. thoughts on Nebby? I see that line dropped down to 11.5 at mine and was hoping to see near 10. BOL this week my dude.
 
BOL Kyle have a great week. Interested in your thoughts on MD total if you have time.
 
I was the same spot as you, gps_3. When Tennessee kicked the FG to tie it with a few seconds left I was sure I was sure the total was going over in OT. I think Florida has replaced BC as the most reliable under team.

I like your AF/SDS and Stanford/UCLA unders VK. Are you playing the Florida/Ky total?
 
TahoeLegend said:
I was the same spot as you, gps_3. When Tennessee kicked the FG to tie it with a few seconds left I was sure I was sure the total was going over in OT. I think Florida has replaced BC as the most reliable under team.

I like your AF/SDS and Stanford/UCLA unders VK. Are you playing the Florida/Ky total?
Click to expand...

Something feels odd to me about the afa/sdsu total as we get to midweek. Should be a short possession game of course but for some reason I am getting concerned about that one. I wouldn't be shocked if Stanford/UCLA went over because it is hard to be shocked by too many things other than when coaches conduct proper clock management, but I would be mildly surprised if I lost that at my number.

The Florida/Kentucky total was too difficult for me. There are all kinds of personnel considerations that just fry my brain a little. My number was lower but not enough to make a play on it. I will leave that one to you experts and I want to enjoy that game. I am a bit of a Kentucky fanboy this year since I think they have a legit shot at making noise in that conference if they figure some things out on the offensive side. There are actually several games I am interested in watching at the 7pm/730PM slots this week. FAU/Buffalo is a VERY difficult game to handicap and one that I want to try and watch on espn3. Just such a great puzzle to try and figure out (I couldn't though I did lean over originally but lean under at current). ND/MSU, Messy/UGA, pennst/iowa and the florida/uk game. Unfortunate they are all on at once. Sorry I couldn't be of more help with that game.
 
gps_3 said:
Think this is the right play, because to get to the over, I think you need Alabama at 35+. Depending on the LB injury situation, I could see Vanderbilt having more success running the ball than one would normally have against the Bama D, thus shortening the game. And if Alabama gets a healthy lead, they will definitely look to keep the clock moving. This one smells like a 27-7 type game to me. I don't like taking unders this low in NCAA though. My under 49.5 in the UF/UT game last week was absolutely the correct bet, and only a hail mary as time expired kept it from going over in OT
Click to expand...

Just need Bama defense to show up in my mind. I don't think bama is capable of putting up high thirties low forties on vandy a very high percentage of the time and i would think most of those are going to be gift stuff where the defense and/or special teams complete it. If Vandy just plays a slow pace and doesn't do anything stupid that under should be in good shape. IF they fall behind too much, too early and start panicking in their approach then that is when I can see the thing spiraling. I just fire at things but I wonder if 1h under would be an even better investment.
 
Good Luck this week, vk. Not many sides there and none of them are among my favorite plays. Probably go on Troy, but I do lean Utah, Michigan, and WbgVA.
 
vk said:
Just need Bama defense to show up in my mind. I don't think bama is capable of putting up high thirties low forties on vandy a very high percentage of the time and i would think most of those are going to be gift stuff where the defense and/or special teams complete it. If Vandy just plays a slow pace and doesn't do anything stupid that under should be in good shape. IF they fall behind too much, too early and start panicking in their approach then that is when I can see the thing spiraling. I just fire at things but I wonder if 1h under would be an even better investment.
Click to expand...

Getting 3 of the 5 injured LBs back should help
 
Gotta Eat said:
VK.. any opinion on Pitt v G Tech?
Click to expand...


Yes. Let me preface this by saying I watched this game last year, and it was one of the more frustrating losses of the season for me, with ....wait for it .. .an under ticket. I think it is easy to look at that game and see that 71 points were scored and expect similar this year but I want to talk about that game a little because I am a massochist.

There was only 778 total yards in that game. Meaning there was basically a point scored for every 11 yards gained in the game. There were 7 first half drives, resulting in 41 first half points (7 via kickoff return). The efficiency of both teams was insane. 7 of 10 on third down conversions with one of the fails resulting in a fourth and one conversion. Peterman was especially good on third down. There was something like 17 possessions and 117 plays or so in the game. That is a very low amount of plays.

So I am hoping for a similar game but with a big downgrade at QB for Pitt, I think they fail more on third down or even if there is any level of normalcy at all compared to last year but otherwise plays the same pace and similar playcalling, the under should be in good shape. I like what GT is putting on the football field this year, meaning I think they are improved year over year on both sides of the ball. I think Pitts biggest weaknesses are the corners on an island, and I don't think that GT can necessarily take advantage of that weakness with the type of offense they run. I actually lean favorite to the under in this game. Thinking something like 31-17.
 
I would say that secondary is very important to stopping GT, the defensive backs have to be able to tackle well and I believe that, for all their vulnerability in coverage, Pitt's d backs do have this strength, especially with the return of a fresh Whitehead. They have a positive history vs GT's attack and while they do suffer a downgrade at quarterback, they still have playmakers especially in the run game with which to exploit GT's relative weakness outside of its elite secondary. I agree with the 'under,' even though that number has already really plummeted, but I think Pitt can stay within a touchdown against a GT team with less developed talent and a poor turnover margin that is surely stemming from their lesser experience
 
Also, while not for a unit and I won't be grading here .... each year I give out one or two huge ml dogs that I think are worth a shot and it has panned out way over the actual EV of them .... Georgia State vs Georgia Southern in 2015 as huge dog and WKU over a ranked Marshall as a three td dog or so, I want to say but could be wrong. I usually find these spots later in the year when bowl implications are in play .... but my radar is sounding off ... so I have a little Akron ML. Take it for what it is worth, which is likely a losing ticket, but Troy has had games to be interested about in Boise State and NMSU and underachieved in both games in my opinion and they are at LSU next week in a game they should care about and then they have the conference slate which they should care about. Akron is underachieving but has talent on par with Troy and this is a game they will care about while it should be the least likely game for Troy to care about this season. Worth a small ml shot imo.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I would say that secondary is very important to stopping GT, the defensive backs have to be able to tackle well and I believe that, for all their vulnerability in coverage, Pitt's d backs do have this strength, especially with the return of a fresh Whitehead. They have a positive history vs GT's attack and while they do suffer a downgrade at quarterback, they still have playmakers especially in the run game with which to exploit GT's relative weakness outside of its elite secondary. I agree with the 'under,' even though that number has already really plummeted, but I think Pitt can stay within a touchdown against a GT team with less developed talent and a poor turnover margin that is surely stemming from their lesser experience
Click to expand...

Their best bet is to run and shorten the game. I just don't think the corps of Pitt QB's is capable of converting enough third downs. Their play calling is great though ... or was against Penn State.
 
And Penn State, like GT, prefers a 4-2-5 defense. But I agree, the QB question looms for Pitt. Both teams have some questions and they speak to an 'under' as the surest thing imo, if you were able to catch a better number.
 
updated the record. Looks like totals are destroying me. shrug. doing this line check early because I am going out tomorrow night for some hibachi filet. I have some stars and some poops ....as usual using pinny ATS/Totals and not mentioning juice

ML's
Miami Ohio 110 still the same price where i played it. Thinking they may close the favorite eventually.

ATS
Michigan -9.5 -10 0.5, 0.5
Boston College 35 33.5 1.5 2
Nebraska -13.5 -12.5 -1 1
Akron 15.5 15.5 0 1
Washington -10 -11.5 1.5 2.5
Utah -3 -3.5 .5 3
wbgvu -20.5 -21 .5 3.5

Totals
Bama/Vandy under 43.5 43 .5 .5
Virginia/Boise St over 51.5 51.5 0 .5
Army/Tulane under 46 44.5 1.5 2
wbgvu/Kansas over 68.5 71 2.5 4.5
ncsu/fsu under 51.5 51 .5 5
Pitt/Gtech under 59 55.5 3.5 9
Idaho/Sbama Under 55 58 -3 6
UCF/Maryland Under 67.5 59.5 8 14
cinci/Navy under 52.5 52.5 0 14
TCU/Okst under 69 71.5 -2.5 11.5
sdsu/afa under 47 47.5 -0.5 11
miss st/uga under 48.5 48.5 0 11
utahst/sjsu under 58 55.5 2.5 13.5
psu/iowa under 52.5 52.5 0 13.5
Nd/msu under 54 54 0 13.5
UCLA/Stanford under 63.5 57.5 6 19.5
 
Proud of the overall value considering I don't hit openers anymore.

Obviously have a few stinkers ... Idaho/sbama is likely a difference of opinion with people who are smarter than me.

The one that angers me a little is the TCU/Okst total because the fact that it went up was somewhat predictable in my opinion and I should have waited longer to play that.

I like Nebraska this week. I don't think Rutgers can move it on them for the reasons I outlined. I wish I had the current number but my fear was the move to 14 vs the move to 13, so I at least had my reasons (I am guessing that is why I played it at 13.5, I really don't remember). And to be fair it did touch 14 before the real money came in on rutgers.

Otherwise pretty solid value I think.

I will be adding notre dame soon. Was waiting for the drop
 
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Frank Costanza said:
Three weeks off for UCF going to lead to some sluggishness. No opinion on the side? I saw enough of Kasim Hill in Austin to know that Terps are just fine w/ him at QB.

GL this weekend.
Click to expand...

I would make Memphis and Georgia Tech a favorite over Maryland, so I find the line interesting in that way. I prefer the Maryland side but I still have some uncertainty with who they are. In that way, it is a bit different than the huge values we would have gotten on the two canceled games where the line was absolutely ridiculous. Milton had all day to throw, with no pass rush and against blown coverages against FIU. From what I saw, Terps have a good pass rush.

I definitely lean that way.
 
vk said:
From what I saw, Terps have a good pass rush.
Click to expand...

Admittedly, there was a good deal of this in Austin.

657c3ad686f49d4e8f6b2fd771a648c5.jpg
 
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