time to post my week 4 card so far

Jimmydafreak said:
The player who took a swing at Helton was EJ Price, and Helton has subsequently announced that Price will be transferring.

http://thebiglead.com/2016/09/21/cl...ng-lineman-e-j-price-didnt-punch-him-in-face/
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It says (according to Helton) that no punches were thrown. It wouldn't surprise me if this was just some ridiculous internet rumor started by USC fans who are dying to see Helton get canned. So then SC will hire some janitor from the Carrol era and they'll be looking for a new coach again 2 years from now.
 
clowncar said:
that and the Diva factor that I think you mentioned once before with regards to USC. They aren't fans of adversity.

I am not for quitters or player revolts but to be fair, he does some things that just lessens their chances to win.

Want some more irony? The team was 100% behind Orgeron in 2013 ... since letting him go they hired a drunk and guy who is just a little out of his league that apparently the players do not like much or respect much... allegedly
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Well, the players seemed to like him not too long ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLCziB4aOpY

That's whats so weird about all these rumors about how the team hates Helton...at the time of the hiring he was praised as a 'players coach'. Everyone cited Kessler and Cravens making a huge deal about getting Helton the permanent gig...which was extra stupid IMO because really who cares what those two think? They were leaving after the year anyway, LOL.

I think Utah will be a true litmus test in regards to how much the players are behind Helton. It's a game they can win and a game they absolutely have to win or this season will become an absolute train wreck.
 
AliShaheed said:
Well, the players seemed to like him not too long ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLCziB4aOpY

That's whats so weird about all these rumors about how the team hates Helton...at the time of the hiring he was praised as a 'players coach'. Everyone cited Kessler and Cravens making a huge deal about getting Helton the permanent gig...which was extra stupid IMO because really who cares what those two think? They were leaving after the year anyway, LOL.

I think Utah will be a true litmus test in regards to how much the players are behind Helton. It's a game they can win and a game they absolutely have to win or this season will become an absolute train wreck.
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When you look at their remaining schedule, it's difficult to find enough wins for them to become bowl eligible.
 
USC always has some "issue" the week before Utah, the team finds itself and uses Utah as a rallying cry to go on a roll. This all comes down to Troy Williams, if he takes care of the ball Utah wins. I think the Utah defense will give Darnold some problems. USC can expose Utah's LB's if they are smart.......I'm not sure they are or not.
 
Two Utes said:
USC always has some "issue" the week before Utah, the team finds itself and uses Utah as a rallying cry to go on a roll. This all comes down to Troy Williams, if he takes care of the ball Utah wins. I think the Utah defense will give Darnold some problems. USC can expose Utah's LB's if they are smart.......I'm not sure they are or not.
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Smart is one thing that they are clearly not.
 
Two Utes.... I am seeing weather possible there. Do you live there and if so could you provide update gameday?
 
I kinda have the feeling it's buy low time on the Vols. Not one person on any forums are on them. Feeling in the general public is very low on them after how unimpressive they have looked early coming in with huge expectations. They obviously played two very uninspired games. But they have had this one ciricled for a year and I really feel like their season begins this week.

Is Florida going to score? 24 and 32 on UMass and North Texas is not good. Those are the two worst teams in FBS. The 45 and 500 yards they put on Kentucky looks far less impressive too considering Southern Miss dumped 44 and 500+ and New Mexico St dumped 42 and 500 yards on that Kentucky D. Lot of questions about that Gators O that have not been answered. I'm not sure a Purdue castoff at QB in a game like this is going to be able to provide any answers.

Gators D is great no doubt, their secondary is absurdly good but the Vols may run every play. Gators run D really hasn't been tested. Boom Williams put 5.5 YPC on them but because of the score got limited touches. Vols ran for 250+ at 5.0 YPC in this game last year.

GameDay in town for the Vols too and they really need a big game here. Chance to get back on the map and erase sleepiness from the first three games. I think Florida struggles to score more than 10 points and Tennessee waxes them.
 
Good discussion going on in this forum. Also clowncar thought that was an interesting perspective from the previous page on about how most athletes will choose to play offense rather than defense based on the rule changes. Makes a lot of sense to me just something I never thought that in depth about.
 
I don't normally bother with games where the line is over 20, but Charlotte plus is intriguing to me. What are you seeing there. Temple's passing game is close to spot on average, but they haven't been able to run the ball.
 
JohnnyGambler said:
I kinda have the feeling it's buy low time on the Vols. Not one person on any forums are on them. Feeling in the general public is very low on them after how unimpressive they have looked early coming in with huge expectations. They obviously played two very uninspired games. But they have had this one ciricled for a year and I really feel like their season begins this week.

Is Florida going to score? 24 and 32 on UMass and North Texas is not good. Those are the two worst teams in FBS. The 45 and 500 yards they put on Kentucky looks far less impressive too considering Southern Miss dumped 44 and 500+ and New Mexico St dumped 42 and 500 yards on that Kentucky D. Lot of questions about that Gators O that have not been answered. I'm not sure a Purdue castoff at QB in a game like this is going to be able to provide any answers.

Gators D is great no doubt, their secondary is absurdly good but the Vols may run every play. Gators run D really hasn't been tested. Boom Williams put 5.5 YPC on them but because of the score got limited touches. Vols ran for 250+ at 5.0 YPC in this game last year.

GameDay in town for the Vols too and they really need a big game here. Chance to get back on the map and erase sleepiness from the first three games. I think Florida struggles to score more than 10 points and Tennessee waxes them.
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So far the Vols offensive line has shown no ability to repeat rushing performances from last year. I agree Florida will struggle to score. Not sure 10 pts isn't enough to cover. Also agree the Florida front 7 hasn't been tested yet. But in that context, Vols have had to prep for a few teams already, a lot of Florida prep so far this year almost certainly has been looking towards this game. definitely true revenge for vols who choked badly late last year. Vols will literally have to play twice as good as they have in any game offensively (assuming no major turnover help - again) to wax florida. Florida is pretty popular from my journeys around the forums too and I agree that is traditionally a worrisome proposition. good luck on your other plays but I need the breaks in this one hehe
 
TheRightCard said:
Good discussion going on in this forum. Also clowncar thought that was an interesting perspective from the previous page on about how most athletes will choose to play offense rather than defense based on the rule changes. Makes a lot of sense to me just something I never thought that in depth about.
Click to expand...

You take away the big moment of the big hit
You make it too hard to sack the qb ... cannot hit high, cannot him low, cannot hit him even remotely close to when he has released the ball and you allow the qb to throw it away to nobody when outside the smallish area of the tackle box
You have turned interference into something that used to be a mugging, into just about any piece of good coverage. I use this a lot ... but think about it .... most interference is the result of the following: DB plays good defense and tightly covers receiver. WR does a poor job getting open. QB throws the football to a covered receiver. There is mild contact before the ball gets there. Flag and 15 yard penalty (even worse with spot foul in the nfl). So offensive players qb and wr both make bad plays and get rewarded. Defender makes a good play and gets punished.

Throw in how impossible it is for a defense to consistently get lined up right when offenses are snapping the ball a few seconds after the ref has made it ready to play and EH ... who wants to play defense? I will go play offense where it is fun and the rules are set to help me succeed. Just human nature.
 
Alan Tongue said:
I don't normally bother with games where the line is over 20, but Charlotte plus is intriguing to me. What are you seeing there. Temple's passing game is close to spot on average, but they haven't been able to run the ball.
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I don't think you can ever assume Charlotte will stop anyone from putting up points but I think you can forgive the charlotte rush defense against Ville based on what Ville has done since and they followed that up with allowing less than 100 yards rushing to elon and emu. Temple and this Temple coach are traditionally run first. I do think Temple runs ok this game and I think they make some passing plays against Charlotte as well but their offense is not as dynamic as most others right now.

Temple is off of their superbowl and that makes this one a very tough one to get up for.

Someone taking a lazy look at Temple Pass D might think they are good as they are ranked 6th in the nation through thre games allowing 128.7 yards per game. but that is a complete product of opponent. Army option and Stony brook skew the stats on ypg allowed through the air dramatically. PSU threw all over them. In other words, if you look at yards allowed per attempt, that temple defense ranks 96th and not 6th. between having some vulnerability through the air imo and the flat spot, I think Charlotte probably contributes 14-20 pts here. In addition, the same perceived vulnerability should leave room for a backdoor cover if down low thirties late. Given I think that charlotte finds paydirt a couple of times, the over also became something I felt I needed to invest in,

I think both the side and total may be skewed by last years 37-3 final.

But
-game was played in bad weather
-that was one of the better temple teams we will ever see (this is not)
-charlotte actually outgained them 354 to 322

PR has it way lower.

I also like that sharp money bet charlotte last week in defeat. Whether that was a fade of emu on the principle of emu laying pts, I don't know. And if you put that emu line in perspective ... would temple be minus the implications of that line to emu? Unlikely. Think we are getting free pts here with charlotte for certainly anything above the 24 and I would argue even beyond.

Held my nose and went where the data and situation take me and I will be ready for the 42-0 result
 
Last edited:
Just double checked, could be in the 40's. Rain is the in forcast, not sure if they will get a window or not.
 
clowncar said:
You take away the big moment of the big hit
You make it too hard to sack the qb ... cannot hit high, cannot him low, cannot hit him even remotely close to when he has released the ball and you allow the qb to throw it away to nobody when outside the smallish area of the tackle box
You have turned interference into something that used to be a mugging, into just about any piece of good coverage. I use this a lot ... but think about it .... most interference is the result of the following: DB plays good defense and tightly covers receiver. WR does a poor job getting open. QB throws the football to a covered receiver. There is mild contact before the ball gets there. Flag and 15 yard penalty (even worse with spot foul in the nfl). So offensive players qb and wr both make bad plays and get rewarded. Defender makes a good play and gets punished.

Throw in how impossible it is for a defense to consistently get lined up right when offenses are snapping the ball a few seconds after the ref has made it ready to play and EH ... who wants to play defense? I will go play offense where it is fun and the rules are set to help me succeed. Just human nature.
Click to expand...

THis will be in everyone's film room. A great representation of a legal hit. I'm just glad Christian Kirk got up. He even said in an interview he was glad no flag was thrown. Using a remarkable phrase, "It's just football".


https://streamable.com/e/1hfi
 
pressitup said:
THis will be in everyone's film room. A great representation of a legal hit. I'm just glad Christian Kirk got up. He even said in an interview he was glad no flag was thrown. Using a remarkable phrase, "It's just football".


https://streamable.com/e/1hfi
Click to expand...


If I had time, I could find you several other hits like this with shoulder that I saw on Saturday that were called penalties though. So we need to not just train up the players but the officials.
 
clowncar said:
If I had time, I could find you several other hits like this with shoulder that I saw on Saturday that were called penalties though. So we need to not just train up the players but the officials.
Click to expand...

THis is true. Like you eluded to before, it leaves a very small window for a clean hit.
The subjectivity of making a quick judgement by seeing the head snap back or arms/legs flying , I think leads to much of the flags. THey aren't going to admit that it happened so fast they didn't have a good idea except that the player swallowed his mouthpiece.
 
I guess the big question I will cap out really hard is TCU/SMU tonight. I just don't think smu can contribute to a total and it makes me look at TCU as a side as well .. against a HUGE move to smu. And that is the thing .. TCU and Under doesn't seem to correlate well on its face. So I will dig deep into the numbers, situations and angles as best I can and try to eliminate both tonight
 
Eliminated some leans today. Some of them I just lost the number and cannot play a lean at that much the worst of it, some I came to the conclusion there was no value, and some I just didn't want to back a side and total in the same game when I didn't have extremely strong confidence (For instance USC when I am now not sure if they show up at all).
 
clowncar said:
Thanks silky. Got any diamonds in the rough this week?

I like your boys to bounce back defensively. USF a little more straightforward and slower paced, lack lamar and fsu off embarrassment. I expect an effort. Maybe the performance last week makes the team start fast for once? This start slow and then play harder later (some adjustments but mostly just better execution) has got to stop.
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they'll win, not sure they cover though l. Something ain't right in Tally, & USF is good. The Ville shocker has woke them up but I'm not afraid that many on the team aren't the type that are the hungry type that built them to where they are m. Lotta stars, few dogs
 
Silkydiamonds said:
they'll win, not sure they cover though l. Something ain't right in Tally, & USF is good. The Ville shocker has woke them up but I'm not afraid that many on the team aren't the type that are the hungry type that built them to where they are m. Lotta stars, few dogs
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USF is pretty good. Semi-under the radar. I think those following the sport close know they have been good for awhile, so I assume FSU knows it since they are in the same state.

Any chance it is just that style of offense that gives noles trouble? Ole Miss and Ville with some similarities (some differences obviously like the qb keep) so wondering if it is style based. Just no way that defense should be playing this poor, big time injury or no.

I hope they show up with heart and defend. Once the bully on the playground gets knocked down, the other kids start thinking they can knock him down too.

Also, why so little D. Cook?
 
Interesting game tonight. Clemson dominates the first half as much as you can dominate a first half and then just sort of go through the motions second half. Ponderous. Team needs to play with an edge for 60 and they either haven't done it once yet or they are not as good as we thought. GREAT first half, no doubt. But Watson is going to have to hit those open guys next week. The WR's are going to have to get more open too and when they are covered and the ball is in the air, they actually have to fight for it. DL played great and have to give the clem defensive coaching staff credit for stopping the option (again). They seem to know how to defend it.

Just feels like something is off with the team to me. Maybe a certain lack of explosiveness from their skill guys. Dunno ... and all the penalties .. offsides over and over again .. hard to yell at the DL after that performance but they will need to play cleaner.

Anyway, much better defense than Louisville sports and they are at home .. so maybe they can do it.
 
clowncar said:
Interesting game tonight. Clemson dominates the first half as much as you can dominate a first half and then just sort of go through the motions second half. Ponderous. Team needs to play with an edge for 60 and they either haven't done it once yet or they are not as good as we thought. GREAT first half, no doubt. But Watson is going to have to hit those open guys next week. The WR's are going to have to get more open too and when they are covered and the ball is in the air, they actually have to fight for it. DL played great and have to give the clem defensive coaching staff credit for stopping the option (again). They seem to know how to defend it.

Just feels like something is off with the team to me. Maybe a certain lack of explosiveness from their skill guys. Dunno ... and all the penalties .. offsides over and over again .. hard to yell at the DL after that performance but they will need to play cleaner.

Anyway, much better defense than Louisville sports and they are at home .. so maybe they can do it.
Click to expand...

I can't wait for that game, Tiger defense very good but we thought that about FSU's as well. I think the Cards go into Death Valley and get a win.
 
clowncar said:
Interesting game tonight. Clemson dominates the first half as much as you can dominate a first half and then just sort of go through the motions second half. Ponderous. Team needs to play with an edge for 60 and they either haven't done it once yet or they are not as good as we thought. GREAT first half, no doubt. But Watson is going to have to hit those open guys next week. The WR's are going to have to get more open too and when they are covered and the ball is in the air, they actually have to fight for it. DL played great and have to give the clem defensive coaching staff credit for stopping the option (again). They seem to know how to defend it.

Just feels like something is off with the team to me. Maybe a certain lack of explosiveness from their skill guys. Dunno ... and all the penalties .. offsides over and over again .. hard to yell at the DL after that performance but they will need to play cleaner.

Anyway, much better defense than Louisville sports and they are at home .. so maybe they can do it.
Click to expand...

Good call on Clemson. I got smacked with GT. I haven't had a chance to watch the game yet but it appears looking at box the 2015 version of GT was what I got. I'm not ready to abandon ship just yet but I'm just so disappointed that I could truly buy into this being Johnson's best offense at Tech. Maybe they are or will be and the issue was simply one of a huge athleticism gulf with Clem DL vs GT OL (I get the sense thats what Ill see in the replay) but it's just one of those losses that stings more in how bad a read I had.
 
clemson's D line played well above where i had them at. they lulled me to sleep the first couple weeks as well.

really felt like GT damn near gave up after they gave up that int/safety.
 
Agree, I was surprised and didn't properly evaluate how much better Clemson DL was than GT OL. They really dominated, and GT had no shot at throwing the ball effectively when in adverse down and distance situations.
 
Kyle - What are your thoughts on TCU/SMU total for tonight? I saw you had a lean on under, and I was thinking under here except the TCU defense seems vulnerable to me especially in the air but not sure that SMU can take advantage as their passing offense looks to be pretty horizontal so far?
 
Two Utes said:
I can't wait for that game, Tiger defense very good but we thought that about FSU's as well. I think the Cards go into Death Valley and get a win.
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just more crisp to me and now they have showed the ability to win a big game at home against one of the conference bullies. Can they replicate that on the road? And at what point do we determine if FSU defense is bad? Two bad games already from that defense... as in two horrible games from that defense. Asking teams to win SU in death valley isn't where I am going to put my money but I tend to agree with you. I will enjoy that one as a fan.
 
CrimsonK said:
Good call on Clemson. I got smacked with GT. I haven't had a chance to watch the game yet but it appears looking at box the 2015 version of GT was what I got. I'm not ready to abandon ship just yet but I'm just so disappointed that I could truly buy into this being Johnson's best offense at Tech. Maybe they are or will be and the issue was simply one of a huge athleticism gulf with Clem DL vs GT OL (I get the sense thats what Ill see in the replay) but it's just one of those losses that stings more in how bad a read I had.
Click to expand...

Ya the game was won two places. Clemson domination of the DL and the Clemson passing game vs the GT secondary. With opponents faced, it was hard to know how GT secondary might match up given Vandy and BC not exactly passing juggernauts.

i wouldn't read a ton into it .. GT has now struggled twice against two dominant front sevens and put a licking on Vandy. Against teams that cannot beat GT at the line of scrimmage the option is going to be just fine.
 
Elbutre88 said:
clemson's D line played well above where i had them at. they lulled me to sleep the first couple weeks as well.

really felt like GT damn near gave up after they gave up that int/safety.
Click to expand...

My take away from that play is that there really is a lack of chemistry so far this year between Watson and WR's. WR ran a different route than Watson expected. Just something about the offense is way less explosive. I agree that play might have deflated them but heading into that play, allowing 2 and kicking from the 20 is probably something they would have accepted. Clemson rated to score a FG minimum there.

GT kept fighting after halftime. Difference between a Helton and a Paul Johnson.
 
Timh said:
Agree, I was surprised and didn't properly evaluate how much better Clemson DL was than GT OL. They really dominated, and GT had no shot at throwing the ball effectively when in adverse down and distance situations.
Click to expand...

Blitz packages Clemson utilized basically elminated the rollouts and scrambles while their DL had great push and penetration all night. Just nothing for Thomas to do with the ball most of the game. Dive taken away, QB taken away, pitch man taken away, wr's taken away ... their best play was that pulling guard kickout block play but you can only run it so many times.
 
Timh said:
Kyle - What are your thoughts on TCU/SMU total for tonight? I saw you had a lean on under, and I was thinking under here except the TCU defense seems vulnerable to me especially in the air but not sure that SMU can take advantage as their passing offense looks to be pretty horizontal so far?
Click to expand...

I like under because I like how TCU matches up with their defense to SMU but heading into the week (clem and haw now eliminated for extra games) TCU 12th most offensive plays run and SMU 27th most offensive plays run. SMU 121st (meaning defended a lot of plays) in defensive plays faced, TCU 83rd in defensive plays faced. In other words, I am not sure the match up is enough to overcome the number of plays we might see in the game. I would be far more inclined to take the SMU team total under and take my chances with that as I think TCU should be ok when they have the ball. Seems like a flat spot for TCU and big spot for SMU so I might not get involved on the side either, not to mention the line movement from this time yesterday to today makes it very hard for me to pull that trigger even if I decided I like it. I also wondered to myself if this isn't a case where there are early points while TCU is trying and then maybe not as many second half when they are not trying as hard. So I might wait and see how the game is playing out and get involved at the half as I think the 2h is actually less likely to see points than the first (unless TCU sleep walks first qtr). Also, an admission .. while I caught up on a few teams this week having watched unlv-cmich replay, gasouthern-ulm replay, navy-tulane replay amongst others... I haven't seen smu at all. I have seen some TCU and my general feeling there is that they are not quite as good on offense this year (stats are fine) and their defense is a little better than last year but that isn't saying a whole lot ... in fact, would go as far as to say it is disappointing how unimproved it looks. TCU already shown backdoor vulnerability with that defense. Game is too complicated for my feeble brain, timh but I would rather wait until halftime to look for total value or just take SMU TT under rather than this particular full game under. Too many plays for sure first half .. potential for less 2h.

shrug.
 
clowncar said:
I like under because I like how TCU matches up with their defense to SMU but heading into the week (clem and haw now eliminated for extra games) TCU 12th most offensive plays run and SMU 27th most offensive plays run. SMU 121st (meaning defended a lot of plays) in defensive plays faced, TCU 83rd in defensive plays faced. In other words, I am not sure the match up is enough to overcome the number of plays we might see in the game. I would be far more inclined to take the SMU team total under and take my chances with that as I think TCU should be ok when they have the ball. Seems like a flat spot for TCU and big spot for SMU so I might not get involved on the side either, not to mention the line movement from this time yesterday to today makes it very hard for me to pull that trigger even if I decided I like it. I also wondered to myself if this isn't a case where there are early points while TCU is trying and then maybe not as many second half when they are not trying as hard. So I might wait and see how the game is playing out and get involved at the half as I think the 2h is actually less likely to see points than the first (unless TCU sleep walks first qtr). Also, an admission .. while I caught up on a few teams this week having watched unlv-cmich replay, gasouthern-ulm replay, navy-tulane replay amongst others... I haven't seen smu at all. I have seen some TCU and my general feeling there is that they are not quite as good on offense this year (stats are fine) and their defense is a little better than last year but that isn't saying a whole lot ... in fact, would go as far as to say it is disappointing how unimproved it looks. TCU already shown backdoor vulnerability with that defense. Game is too complicated for my feeble brain, timh but I would rather wait until halftime to look for total value or just take SMU TT under rather than this particular full game under. Too many plays for sure first half .. potential for less 2h.

shrug.
Click to expand...
Thank you for your thoughts, I have to admit this morning when I looked at this game my thinking was kind of like yours that maybe SMU TT under was a better option. I may just elect to stay off this one and/or watch and jump in at HT.
 
VK glad to see you on Cowboys tonite plus ECU ( I got a better number, which may not be good news ) Okie lite at only 8 , bowling green, and I welcome your take at gators +4. I sure missed out on a full score. As usual, I played " a few " more that you don't have, and I may add one or two of your totals in games where I don't have a position
best wishes for a big week
bull
 
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