time to post my week 4 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
week 1 17-15
week 2 13-7
week 3 16-17
overall 46-39

I also bet Tulsa but as I was too busy to post and the line is no longer remotely available I won't track it here.


Locked In

Wyoming -3 loser 0-1
AFA -3 winner 1-1
Ball State -3 w 2-1
Oklahoma State 10 L 2-2
Charlotte 28 P 2-2
Florida 7 L 2-3
Indiana -7 L 2-4
MTSU -5.5 L2-5
ECU 11.5 L 2-6
Bowling Green 17 L2-7
UNT 7.5 W 3-7
LSU -3 -115 L 2-8
USC/UTAH Under 46.5 L 2-9
ECU/VT Over 56 W 3-9
Iowa/Rutgers under 55 W 4-9
Wake/Indiana under 47.5 L 4-10
Appst/Akron under 59 L 4-11
Gasouthern/wmich Under 54 L 4-12
Wisconsin/MichSt under 43.5 W 5-12
ULL/Tulane under 47 L 5-13
Fla/Vols under 43.5 L 5-14
FSU/USF under 61 L 5-15
Neb/Nw under 48 W 6-15
Stanford/UCLA under 46.5 W 7 -15
Charolotte/Temple over 53.5 W 8 -15
Clemson -9.5 W 9-15
ndame 2h L 9-16
Indiana W 10-16
56-55


Strong Leans

USC 3 1 bet on the usc defense is enough. eliminated
UCLA 3 Likely adding but waiting.
Vanderbilt 7.5 eliminated. SC and GT games now alarming
LSU/Aub Under 45.5 (my numbers show a play but something "feels" wrong plus qb change(s))
Stanford/UCLA under 46.5 played
Uk/Scar over 56.5
Tulsa/Fresno st over 66

Talk me off Leans

Clemson -9.5 (Will give some reasons why I like it and why I probably will lay off) Played
TCU -20.5 (SMU keep up without Davis?
UVA 3.5
app st -5.5 (over-correction?, Rb? Akron passing good enough to exploit minor weakness?) eliminated spot
ndame -20.5 (smells like woodshed but Cutcliffe and Ndame tackling. Flat spot? or no off the loss? Duke is bad)
Boise St -13 (I know I am not playing it as variance to my number doesn't warrant but if I were boise, I would want to be orst by more than pac12 elite does) eliminated cannot warrant with numbers
TCU/SMU Under 63.5
cmich/uva over 50 eliminated
UCF/FIU over 52.5 eliminated waited too long, lost number
Arkansas/Tamu over 49.5 eliminated. don't like anymore
UTSA/Old dom over 52.5

 
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I'll be looking towards a Ok St ML too. Baylor has capability of scoring similar to previous seasons, but vs teams like SMU and Rice they have not looked the same. Lots of drops vs Rice and SMU did a good job vs them for 2+ qrts. SMU and Rice both ran on them as well. I was surprised to see the number open where it did. I can't get anything until Saturday so I expect quite a bit of value to have been eaten away by then.
 
Well this is the week we find out if Baylor has just been disinterested or not, sk.

Better spot for Baylor than Okie lite. Good news is okst defended a power run game last week .. bad news is they didn't defend it well.

I have some concern that the Baylor defense might show up well here as well. Big upward class move from cmich and pitt defenses to Baylor imo.

The factor that I think is hurting Baylor a little bit right now is just that Russell is not that mobile and athletic runner he is when healthy. Far less fear of him keeping the ball which makes their power run game easier to stop. We will find out this game if the Baylor drops are a season long thing or the result beard removal.
 
ADDS

Charlotte 28
Florida 7
Indiana -7
MTSU -5.5
ECU 11.5
Bowling Green 17
UNT 7.5
LSU -3 -115
 
Loved the Wyoming game as soon as the spread came out but avoiding due to my moratorium on weeknight games. EMU pounded WYoming a couple years ago(maybe it was the opener last year) but it seems like teams like EMU can only compete if superior talented teams (which it appears Wyoming is, along with a good coach) take them lightly. A weeknight roadie for a team like Wyoming makes that less likely. I have to say, however that I'm still recovering from that 5 INT performance by Wyoming's QB that torched by wallet two weeks ago.
 
I grabbed USC +4 and I think they win outright. I think they're largely a victim of their schedule at this point (similar to oklahoma). I don't care who was coaching them, they weren't going to beat Bama or Stan. With that said, my only concern is if the players check out given the coaching ineptitude and lack of leadership not just on the sidelines but on the field as well. That team is full of diva's, mopes and whiners and overall just doesn't fight back against adversity (or the entire city telling them how much they suck) so I just hope they come to play.

Stan opened up at +1 against UCLA which I thought was ridiculous. I was able to grab Stan -1 and I feel pretty good about it. UCLA hasn't beaten Stan since 2008 (including 2 shots at them in back to back weeks a couple of years back) and none of the games have even been close. UCLA doesn't like to get physical. What are you seeing out of the two teams this year that leads you to UCLA?

Any thoughts on PSU? I haven't watched 1 min of them this year (honestly, I'm not sure if there's been a more unwatchable P5 team over the last few years than PSU) but mich to me is vastly overrated and overvalued and will need to be faded at some point. I'm just not sure if this week and this opponent is the time to do it.
 
Duke/ND total up to 59.5, I am under the impression that the teams that present problems for ND are those that can take advantage of that miserable secondary. The only Duke I've seen this year was the Wake game in which my confidence level in them exploiting that weakness would be very minimal. Any thoughts on an under there? GL this week
 
clowncar said:
Well this is the week we find out if Baylor has just been disinterested or not, sk.
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Difference seems to be that even disinterested Baylor teams in the past would roll Rice by 6 TDs and not break a sweat. I remember watching Baylor go to Lawrence last year (granted Lawrence) and watching them seemingly jog through the 1st half and yet they were up 52-7 30 minutes in.

Maybe they "wake up" this weekend. Seems like there's bigger issues.
 
Clemson -9.5 (Will give some reasons why I like it and why I probably will lay off)
TCU -20.5 (SMU keep up without Davis?
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I'm on the other side of both. Can't see anything to like on Clemson's side in this one. Not sure the power ratings even justify this line before consideration of the fact that this is a Thursday night road game giving Clemson a short week to prepare for the option offense plus a lookahead to UL as well. I will note, however, that under Johnson Tech is 0-2 ATS in Thursday night games (both at home) when the opponent had short rest off a Saturday game.

SMU/TCU has been a dog series forever, and the gap between the teams has narrowed a good bit since last year. That's reflected in the line, but probably not enough.
 
I'm starting to hear rumors that USC may have some internal bickering and some players talking of leaving. Possible player punching Helton. No verification as of now but check into it before Friday.
 
Two Utes said:
I'm starting to hear rumors that USC may have some internal bickering and some players talking of leaving. Possible player punching Helton. No verification as of now but check into it before Friday.
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hahahhahahahahaha. oh man.

Darnold is starting instead of Browne. Prob an upgrade.
 
Agree that Darnold is an upgrade, Utah recruited him heavily and it came down to them USC. They know his game but the Utah defense isn't exactly the one you want a RS freshman making his first start against. USC has issues, will the team rally or will they implode.....who knows?
 
ADDS:

USC/UTAH Under 46.5
ECU/VT Over 56
Iowa/Rutgers under 55
Wake/Indiana under 47.5
Appst/Akron under 59
Gasouthern/wmich Under 54
Wisconsin/MichSt under 43.5
ULL/Tulane under 47
Fla/Vols under 43.5
FSU/USF under 61
Neb/Nw under 48
 
Br@ssknux said:
Loved the Wyoming game as soon as the spread came out but avoiding due to my moratorium on weeknight games. EMU pounded WYoming a couple years ago(maybe it was the opener last year) but it seems like teams like EMU can only compete if superior talented teams (which it appears Wyoming is, along with a good coach) take them lightly. A weeknight roadie for a team like Wyoming makes that less likely. I have to say, however that I'm still recovering from that 5 INT performance by Wyoming's QB that torched by wallet two weeks ago.
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I originally made the game a -4 I believe and adjusted it up to -6. I don't necessarily play all three pt variances depending on my confidence in the number I created. This felt right to me and as one of the few people who has seen multiple Wyoming games and an EMU game, my eye test is also coming into play here where it likely isn't for most. As for the Wyoming QB, I rather think he is ok. Decent arm and not a horrible decision maker despite the nebraska interceptions.

Best of luck this week and wish I was as smart about avoiding weeknight games. I get it wrong every time.
 
AliShaheed said:
I grabbed USC +4 and I think they win outright. I think they're largely a victim of their schedule at this point (similar to oklahoma). I don't care who was coaching them, they weren't going to beat Bama or Stan. With that said, my only concern is if the players check out given the coaching ineptitude and lack of leadership not just on the sidelines but on the field as well. That team is full of diva's, mopes and whiners and overall just doesn't fight back against adversity (or the entire city telling them how much they suck) so I just hope they come to play.

Stan opened up at +1 against UCLA which I thought was ridiculous. I was able to grab Stan -1 and I feel pretty good about it. UCLA hasn't beaten Stan since 2008 (including 2 shots at them in back to back weeks a couple of years back) and none of the games have even been close. UCLA doesn't like to get physical. What are you seeing out of the two teams this year that leads you to UCLA?

Any thoughts on PSU? I haven't watched 1 min of them this year (honestly, I'm not sure if there's been a more unwatchable P5 team over the last few years than PSU) but mich to me is vastly overrated and overvalued and will need to be faded at some point. I'm just not sure if this week and this opponent is the time to do it.
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I believe Stanford is one of the more over rated teams currently in the nation. They play smart and their style translates to wins within the conference they compete in but this is the worst stanford team in a few years. While that trend is definitely worth noting, going back to crap UCLA squads of 2008 to 2011 or 2012 (too lazy to look right now) isn't worth much here. And then the last several years UCLA has been improving a lot but Stanford had elite teams. I don't believe Stanford is an elite team this year. Their offensive line is not nearly as good and their passing game is so regressed, Shaw barely tries. Throw out the unlv game to compare apples to relative apples and you have ucla at tamu and @byu vs Stanford at home vs ksu and usc. The teams against similar level opponents peformed about the same, particularly when you take hfa into account. I don't see anything from Stanford that makes me think they get 450 yards in this game ... or 400 for that matter. I worry about battling against the preference of the conference which would be to have undefeated Stanford lose at Washington the following week and Stanford could certainly win the game as it looks like a toss up to me (and teams that know how to win often do). But getting points in the Stanford QB first road start isn't bad looking to me. In addition, while I don't necessarily disagree that Stanford has out-physicaled (new word Don King style) UCLA, I have watched UCLA DL in games against Tamu and BYU and I am pretty sure they can match up pretty well against the offensive line I have seen against KSU and USC. Stanford might break the long run and accumulate yards through attempts otherwise but their bread and butter power run game isn't gonna be worth what it has been the last few years and the new qb hasn't shown me anything to think he can convert big plays, especially in this spot. Of course, I think UCLA struggles on offense as well, hence the under bet. But in games that look like pretty strong unders that are totaled in the forties, I tend to like the dog, particularly a home dog with two big away games under the belt while the opponent had two home games (one big one a decent opponent). Your number is different than current market and obviously you have value now.

I have to be honest, I have watched a lot of PSU and a lot of Michigan and I am not sure I have either one properly rated not only in terms of PR for sides but in terms of pace and other factors. One of my favorite bets a couple weeks ago was psu pitt under and one of my favorite bets this past week was colorado mich under. So just don't feel good about those two, particularly psu, as far as styles to back against, styles to fade against, or how to properly total. I am sure when Michigan goes against some of the BIG gringing teams I will feel ok about what to expect but PSU offense I cannot tell whether it is any good or not or how bad or how good ... and their defense is all banged up so hard to keep track of what is going on there too. Just not a game for me. On a visceral level, the total looks too high . but I basically lost my last michigan under with almost the whole 2h to go, going under a similar number.
 
ADDS

Looks like i left these two off the other post

Stanford/UCLA under 46.5
Charlotte/Temple over 53.5
 
CrimsonK said:
Duke/ND total up to 59.5, I am under the impression that the teams that present problems for ND are those that can take advantage of that miserable secondary. The only Duke I've seen this year was the Wake game in which my confidence level in them exploiting that weakness would be very minimal. Any thoughts on an under there? GL this week
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My problem here is that I have a very heavy lean to Notre Dame and part of is that I think the offense takes it out on duke here. Tackling by ndame in both texas and msu games is a concern when I expect Notre Dame to get high thirties minimum in this one. If I were you, and i am not and not as smart as you, I would be more interested in the Duke TT under compared to the overall under. MSU also got away with a lot of holding and I think we see notre dame get off blocks better this week. I think you can make a decent case for under but for me, it doesn't correlate well to what I think happens when the other team has it. Is duke still playing fast?
 
UCLA is this weeks banger. I've watched both Stanford games and agree with you clown, they are waaay down. If USC had a competent coach and start the other QB they may have won last week. Not impressed by the new Stanford QB yet and if he plays well enough on an ABC night game as a road fav to come away with a win then I will gladly pay the man. UCLA in my opinion has the better defense and certainly the better QB. They are also in the better spot at home on national TV after Stanford embarrassed them on national TV last year (were up 36 before calling off the dogs). Capping 101 right here IMO.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Difference seems to be that even disinterested Baylor teams in the past would roll Rice by 6 TDs and not break a sweat. I remember watching Baylor go to Lawrence last year (granted Lawrence) and watching them seemingly jog through the 1st half and yet they were up 52-7 30 minutes in.

Maybe they "wake up" this weekend. Seems like there's bigger issues.
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Agreed. And they made it look easy. Even when this Baylor team is driving the field, they are making it seem like it is harder than it is. I mean, at what point do I believe my lying eyes? Grobe is a good guy, decent coach at getting the most out of lesser talent when he was at Wake but his style just takes the swagger out of Baylor it seems to me. Not a great spot for okst though.
 
I also wonder if the team hates the lack of aggression with down the field play calling. JuJu is by far their best weapon and he simply doesn't get enough touches or targets.
 
clowncar said:
They play smart and their style translates to wins within the conference they compete in but this is the worst stanford team in a few years.
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This is dead-on. Even in previous "elite" years I haven't been a believer that Stan could compete with the top teams from OOC. Last year's team got worked by NW and Oregon at home. Then they get a lucky draw in the Rose with Iowa. Had they faced OSU in the Rose or Bama/Clemson in the playoffs they would've gotten their asses handed to them. But like you said, what they do is very effective within the conference. So, I guess my point is, for the purposes of this matchup with UCLA I'm not so concerned with how Stan would fare against elite opponents.

While that trend is definitely worth noting, going back to crap UCLA squads of 2008 to 2011 or 2012 (too lazy to look right now) isn't worth much here.
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True, I'm not a fan of data mining and it actually drives me nuts when I'm reading through Steele's mag and he dedicates an unnecessary amount of ink to things that happened god knows how many years ago. But like you said, it's somewhat worth noting and I think it's indicative of a style mismatch. Which of course can change on any given year.


I have to be honest, I have watched a lot of PSU and a lot of Michigan and I am not sure I have either one properly rated not only in terms of PR for sides but in terms of pace and other factors. One of my favorite bets a couple weeks ago was psu pitt under and one of my favorite bets this past week was colorado mich under. So just don't feel good about those two, particularly psu, as far as styles to back against, styles to fade against, or how to properly total. I am sure when Michigan goes against some of the BIG gringing teams I will feel ok about what to expect but PSU offense I cannot tell whether it is any good or not or how bad or how good ... and their defense is all banged up so hard to keep track of what is going on there too. Just not a game for me. On a visceral level, the total looks too high . but I basically lost my last michigan under with almost the whole 2h to go, going under a similar number.
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After I posted this I saw that PSU will be missing all 3 starting linebackers this week. So yeah, maybe not the ideal time to be backing PSU.

I don't think taking the under in the mich/colo was such a bad play. If colorado brought an actual punter to the game and if the qb doesn't get knocked out then the final score would've looked quite different, I believe.
 
Silkydiamonds said:
Good luck bro
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Thanks silky. Got any diamonds in the rough this week?

I like your boys to bounce back defensively. USF a little more straightforward and slower paced, lack lamar and fsu off embarrassment. I expect an effort. Maybe the performance last week makes the team start fast for once? This start slow and then play harder later (some adjustments but mostly just better execution) has got to stop.
 
clowncar said:
Yeah looks bad

http://www.diehardsport.com/college...lating-usc-freshman-apparently-punched-coach/
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Alright, I'll have to amend my proclamation of SC winning this one, LOL. Who knows at this point?

It's funny how severe of an impact that Bama throttling had on the SC program. If they played their usual Hawaii or Fresno St. to open the season things would probably be ok at this point. But that's really an indicator of horrible coaching...no program is immune to bad losses but you gotta dust yourself off and get back at it. I think SC had their collective souls ripped out of their chest by Saban and Kiffin.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Good luck this weekend and, again, thanks for all your work on these threads. Much appreciated.
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I used to work really hard in these threads. Now I barely have energy to post the plays but I love talking, analyzing, learning and watching college football. A little less each year with the rule changes and removal of physical play but I still love it.

Incidentally, when you remove hitting from football, you remove the fun and joy of playing defense in my opinion. My guess is that less and less of the better athletes choose defense which means this poor tackling is just going to get worse.

I almost transitioned into a complete rant but I will stop short.

Glad you enjoy the thread and I enjoy your contributions to it each week.
 
Glad to see you on ECU. Haven't seen them mentioned in too many threads, but they jumped out at me immediately. Possible ML play for me as well. GL this week.
 
AliShaheed said:
Alright, I'll have to amend my proclamation of SC winning this one, LOL. Who knows at this point?

It's funny how severe of an impact that Bama throttling had on the SC program. If they played their usual Hawaii or Fresno St. to open the season things would probably be ok at this point. But that's really an indicator of horrible coaching...no program is immune to bad losses but you gotta dust yourself off and get back at it. I think SC had their collective souls ripped out of their chest by Saban and Kiffin.
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that and the Diva factor that I think you mentioned once before with regards to USC. They aren't fans of adversity.

I am not for quitters or player revolts but to be fair, he does some things that just lessens their chances to win.

Want some more irony? The team was 100% behind Orgeron in 2013 ... since letting him go they hired a drunk and guy who is just a little out of his league that apparently the players do not like much or respect much... allegedly
 
C-MAN said:
Glad to see you on ECU. Haven't seen them mentioned in too many threads, but they jumped out at me immediately. Possible ML play for me as well. GL this week.
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I prefer the over to the side as VT keeps getting better with the new offensive system. But ECU looked pretty sharp last week in defeat. Insane red zone turnovers in that one but they were the much better team. I think the odds of them not finding the end zone in that manner again this week as somewhat slim. VT gonna score so ECU O better show up.
 
I already had some fear that the QB switch would likely lead to both more big plays on offense for usc and more big plays for the utah defense than if Browne played. Kid cannot fumble on the sacks. Kid... you cannot fumble on the sacks. kid listen to me ... take care of the football .. don't throw picks.

And now I have more fear about the mindset of the Trojans. We have also seen what happens to USC when they quit and if that happens in that atmosphere then Utah romps them.

Utah QB is actually a little better than I gave him credit for though he too needs to value the football.
 
clowncar said:
My problem here is that I have a very heavy lean to Notre Dame and part of is that I think the offense takes it out on duke here. Tackling by ndame in both texas and msu games is a concern when I expect Notre Dame to get high thirties minimum in this one. If I were you, and i am not and not as smart as you, I would be more interested in the Duke TT under compared to the overall under. MSU also got away with a lot of holding and I think we see notre dame get off blocks better this week. I think you can make a decent case for under but for me, it doesn't correlate well to what I think happens when the other team has it. Is duke still playing fast?
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Thanks for the response. I am admittedly not as up to speed on Duke this season. Have seen very little and what I have I saw a team that stylistically may not be a great under team but talent wise appeared to be. They are 11th in adjusted pace, 120th in standard downs run rate so that's what I mean by stylistically they dont scream under team to me but they still kinda are, I think...I didn't even make a number for the game as I don't attempt to try to cover near as much ground as I used to but when I saw Duke and a number close to 60 and not 40 attached to it my interest was piqued. I'm very comfortable staying sidelined.
 
JohnnyGambler said:
UCLA is this weeks banger. I've watched both Stanford games and agree with you clown, they are waaay down. If USC had a competent coach and start the other QB they may have won last week. Not impressed by the new Stanford QB yet and if he plays well enough on an ABC night game as a road fav to come away with a win then I will gladly pay the man. UCLA in my opinion has the better defense and certainly the better QB. They are also in the better spot at home on national TV after Stanford embarrassed them on national TV last year (were up 36 before calling off the dogs). Capping 101 right here IMO.
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Yuuuuup. And this is deeper than last year. Shaw has made Mora his son. 0-5 in 4 years. Total ownership by Furd. Kevin Hogan especially; he always turned all world against us.

So the revenge is a long time coming. And with the atmosphere of a glorified scrimmage vs unlv, I think it's fair to say this is UCLA's real home opener. It's UCLA's game of the year vs. a sandwich game for furd. If they can't get it done here....smh...

There are concerns of course, the offense hasn't clicked, takk McKinley could bust his groin at any moment, the guards are soft,...etc....but this spot is golden.
 
JohnnyGambler said:
UCLA is this weeks banger. I've watched both Stanford games and agree with you clown, they are waaay down. If USC had a competent coach and start the other QB they may have won last week. Not impressed by the new Stanford QB yet and if he plays well enough on an ABC night game as a road fav to come away with a win then I will gladly pay the man. UCLA in my opinion has the better defense and certainly the better QB. They are also in the better spot at home on national TV after Stanford embarrassed them on national TV last year (were up 36 before calling off the dogs). Capping 101 right here IMO.
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Definitely a revenge spot of some magnitude.

I think the defenses are relatively even. I think the Stanford running game is more consistent and I think McCaffery is always an opportunity for them to have a big play .. ... but there is a difference at QB, The hope would be that the extra confidence Mora has in his QB compared to Shaw with his QB won't result in Stanford going plus 2 in turnovers.

I like true revenge and I admit last year makes this a little different but when one team owns another it means the other team has lost with the revenge angle a bunch of times in a row. So while I agree with you, and I do, I am actually not weighing revenge that much in this particular game. Any benefit from that aspect is a bonus.

Also agree on your assessment of last week. Shaw>Helton was worth more than I gave it credit for.
 
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Some quick thoughts on a few of the plays. Hardly in depth but gives an idea of what i am thinking.

Afa -3 - AFA higher in PR year over and USU lower in PR year over year. Last year AFA 580 yards of option style offense, Aggies 439 but just 75 on the ground. Just 253 yards at usc and just 334 at home to Arkansas State. Last year Hunter Sharp (released by Eagles because he had hamstring issues and didn't get any reps to be seen from what I read) caught 13 balls for 193 and 3 TD. Aggies just don't have that type of player at WR right now and if they cannot run, AFA will completely wear them down. While Utah State has an extra day of prep time with the weekday game last week, Calhoun and AFA coming off a bye. Wouldn't expect a blow out but would expect to AFA to win this a lot more times than they lose and perhaps semi-comfortably in this spot as a road fave.

Florida 7 and Under the total - Game will be talked about a bunch in actual detail but will throw out my thoughts anyway. Vols certainly the more battle tested team so far this year but what an emotional roller coaster too ... outplayed and deserved to lose to Appst but instead recover a fumble in the EZ to win. then got all the turnovers to beat VT who outgained them and then struggled with Ohio in what was admittedly a tough spot. But their oline is not producing at all. 1053 yards over three games (just 43 more than their opponents total) and several teams have looked very good at the line of scrimmage against them. Florida defense has faced lesser competition but the defense has been insanely good in those games. In addition to all of the gaudy stats about their defense that you will see.. one of the stats that stood out to me was 228 plays for and 150 against over the first three games of the year. So their opponents are simply not spending time out on the field of play. And if Vols are in that area of plays in this game, how can you expect them to win by two scores. florida offense has actually produced better numbers to start this year so it isn't the case of oh boy, here we go again in regards to ineptness there. They aren't great and I give the Vols D the edge against them (hence why under seems so nice). This was a bitter loss for Vols last year with the horrible choke job late and I am sure they will be amped but you have to wonder how much they have in the emotional tank at this point given what has transpired in just the first three weeks. Anyway, not sure Vols rate to hit 17 (hence under) and that makes 7 a huge number. Are you sure Vols are even the better team? Could go and on about the florida defense but I will let others do it. If this is the game Vols passing game wakes up, so be it.
 
ODU line of 52 is too low. And at mine it's gone down to 51.5....what the hell is going on? Last years game was wrongly totaled at 52 and 67 points were put up. (along with 550 yards on one side, 424 on the other).

Last year ODU's offense (essentially the same, a year older) put up 30 first downs and 550 yards at UTSA. Has their defense improved much? ASU "only" scored 32, but turned the ball over 3 times and put up 469 yards.

UTSA's offense seems roughly the same. Really good dual threat QB, but other than QB, they don't have much of a running game. ODU should be able to attack both through the air and on the ground.

I may be on this total...though drop has me scratching head. I will certainly look at the ODU team total over.....28ish?
 
Sure.

Auburn

Clemson
yards per pass against 7.3
yards per pass for 5.8
net -1.5

yards per rush against 3.4
yards per rush for 2.1
net -1.3

TAMU
yards per pass against 6.2
yards per pass for 4.7
net -1.5

yards per rush against 6.2
yards per pass for 4.4
net -1.8

Auburn has been flattered by the scoreboard in both games.

LSU

Wisconsin
yards per pass against 6.6
yards per pass for 6.2
net -0.4

yards per rush against 3.2
yards per rush for 4.4
net 1.2



Miss St
yards per pass against 6.7
yards per pass for 6.7
net 0

yards per rush against 1.8
yards per rush for 4.5
net 2.7

LSU has largely been unflattered by the scoreboard.

I admit that part of the reason I played LSU is that I assume Franklin would start. I liked that idea because I very confident that Auburn cannot run it on LSU and I didn't like Franklin's chances of competing passes compared to White. White is starting though so that is a little bit of a ding to what I wanted. Though, had Auburn started Franklin it is easier to bring in White in the 2h when they need to throw. If White is struggling and auburn is behind it is harder to go to Franklin because he cannot complete forward passes right now. Etling,meanwhile appears to be a stabilizer and played competently last week. Preseason PR might have been a little high on LSU and a little low on Auburn but they are going to have to prove to me they can do it. Who is more likely to keep growing from here? LSU with start two for Etling or Auburn with White back (or with a running qb against a team they just are not going to run against?). LSU just the far more talented team. Hold onto the pigskin this week.
 
Love the Tulsa play I also grabbed that. I was waiting on my chance to fade Lorenzo Ward against a spread team. BOL this week
 
Any thoughts on So Miss? UTEP is just bad - basically one-dimensional on offense now and full of holes on defense. So difficult for me not to fade this team right now.
 
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