time to post my week 4 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Week 1 17-16 -0.8
Week 2 17-12-1 3.7, 2.9
week 3 14-10-1, 2.9, 5.8
overall 48-38-2. 5.8, 55.8%

A good week in week 3 but to be honest, it was disappointing to me. I will recap the losers later. Golfing and having a day today so it is unlikely I get to attack openers this week but who knows, maybe it works out. The week 4 card is terrible from a fan perspective.

Locked In:

#316 Toledo -8
#317 Terps +1.5
#327 Tulane +18
#331 UNC +3 -115
#382 Arkansas -12.5 -121
#353 Texas AM -30
#352 S bama -1.5
#350 usm -4
#389 Oklahoma -7
#315/#316 Ball State/Toledo under 65.5
#365/#366 Clemson/FSU under 64
#385 New Mexico -3
#357/#358 Florida/Alabama under 52.5
ODU/RICE over 61
Ville/FIU over 48
#313 Iowa +7
#355/#356 Rutgers/Navy over 54
Ville/fiu 2h und 21

10 point teaser #305 UConn +12.5/#393 California +18/#379 Mississippi State +19

12-6-1

Week 1 17-16 -0.8
Week 2 17-12-1 3.7, 2.9
week 3 14-10-1, 2.9, 5.8
week 4 12-6-1, 5.35, 11.15
overall 60-44-3, 11.15, 57.7%

Strong Leans:

unlv +20.5 eliminated from plays
Oklahoma -11.5 leaned it at 11.5 ,, have to take at 7 added to plays
California +12.5 eliminated .. lost playable numbers
odu/rice over 61.5 added to plays
Hawaii/Colorado under 63 (problem is a lack of confidence in my view of Hawaii, help appreciated) eliminated


Talk Me Off Leans:

Florida +15.5 eliminated
Ville/FIU over 48 added to plays
Rutgers/navy over 54.5 (navy qb?) added to plays
Miami fl/Nebraska under 58.5 eliminated lost number
UConn +2 eliminated
 
Last edited:
Toledo -8
terps 1.5
Tulane 18
unc +3 -115
Arkansas -12.5 -121
texas AM -30
S bama -1.5
usm -4
 
TheGarfather said:
GL this week

You know anything about Ball State?
Click to expand...

Not CC, but they can't throw to save their lives. QB is not D-1 caliber now. Lost to Indiana St, but all of these schools who stink offensively run the risk of losing to FBS teams. I'm generally positive about the HC Lembo, in a tallest midget kind of way. I live just outside of Indy to the Northeast, so Ball State is local for me.
 
With you on UNC and Arky. Opposite on South Alabama. Navy's triple option gave South fits last season. I think Georgia Southern breaks through this weekend.
 
I jumped on A&M as well. Haven't had a chance to digest the card yet, but on first glance I like Utah and I locked in Akron +12.5. (BOL moved it down to 12 immediately thereafter). Need to determine whether LA-La is this bad, because if they are, Boise -17 has a lot of value.
 
only differ on fla, unlv and unc and dont like any of opponents enough to try and persuade differently

BOL Kyle
 
SMU is so pathetic. A&M has a huge alumni base in Dalllas / Ft. Worth and will make up 2/3 of that crowd Saturday.
 
I had this spot scheduled as a letdown/sandwich spot for Arky this summer. Care to share thoughts on what you see in them here?
 
I would be interested in your thoughts on Cuse and what kind of team they have? Precipitous drop in MD PR after last two weeks performance? I know I am very disappointed in the OL and running game in particular.
 
I'm on Florida +15.5, so I certainly won't talk you off that one.

I think Alabama will attract a lot of money this week with Florida coming off of their narrow escape this past weekend, but that was a classic look-ahead spot for the Gators. And, oh, BTW, Kentucky is not a bad football team. They are respectable in all phases. If Florida and Alabama would have swapped opponents last weekend, I'm not sure Alabama would have fared a whole lot better than Florida did.

I think this will be a close game. I like the points.
 
I am being over run with business at the moment. I will get to all the posts eventually this week ... maybe not for any discussion on thurs or fri games but the others.

ADD

389 Oklahoma -7
 
Two Utes said:
I like Cal as well. Not seeing 12.5 currently though.
Click to expand...


Ya .. I like there to be a lot of points and the game seems volatile to me so I will wait and see if I get a playable over and either look to play that or the cal TT rather than the side since it has been bet down.
 
Timh said:
I would be interested in your thoughts on Cuse and what kind of team they have? Precipitous drop in MD PR after last two weeks performance? I know I am very disappointed in the OL and running game in particular.
Click to expand...

Ya this game I had minus a td preseason and just -4 now. I didn't see the wvu game but terps oline was dominated by the bulls DL in week 2. It is hard to know exactly what Cuse is as they played without Hunt most of the Nova game so we really only have last week as far as their offense is concerned as a measuring stick. We also have the problem of knowing exactly what that cmich team was last week ... they beat purdue good but struggled vs fcs the week prior. Cuse shut down their running game completely and their offense completely so some of the 464 yards they got is just cmich tiring. And cmich was without their two best offensive options for the game ( And still steamed down against cuse ). I doubt you see terps able to ram it down the Oranges throat but this is a pretty big step up in level of competition for Syracuse from prior weeks and if you have to play in the dome, you want the 12:00-1:00 start time.

The situation is not the best ... disappointing loss to a rival ( thought wvu outplayed terps worse than the 3 point margin by box score ) the game prior and conference opener the game after.

I might be too gradual lowering the terp pr but it is hard to lower it a ton off a 6 turnover performance and the team they lost to by a fg last week is now only a TD dog to Oklahoma.

Have Terps units fairly consistently rated higher than cuse. Just need a good four quarters for once.
 
scdoggy said:
I had this spot scheduled as a letdown/sandwich spot for Arky this summer. Care to share thoughts on what you see in them here?
Click to expand...


To be as basic as possible .. I don't see the NIU DE's who are about 225 apiece being able to stop the off tackle running game of Arkansas with stud RB behind a HUGE offensive line. For right or wrong, I just won't count letdown spots or lookahead spots for much with a 3-9 team from the previous year and I won't do it when a 3-9 team is facing a 12-2 team from the previous year who is now 3-0 having beaten a BCS conference team who the whole world thought was better than Arkansas before the season started. Arkansas has familiarity with the type of schemes NIU runs except they normally are the lesser athletes. Just see them mauling NIU up front....
 
Jimmydafreak said:
I'm on Florida +15.5, so I certainly won't talk you off that one.

I think Alabama will attract a lot of money this week with Florida coming off of their narrow escape this past weekend, but that was a classic look-ahead spot for the Gators. And, oh, BTW, Kentucky is not a bad football team. They are respectable in all phases. If Florida and Alabama would have swapped opponents last weekend, I'm not sure Alabama would have fared a whole lot better than Florida did.

I think this will be a close game. I like the points.
Click to expand...

Yup ... when Bama gets it all put together this number would make more sense to me but they are slightly off on offense imo to start the year and this is a tough opponent to get well on. Have to think Bama is held to under 30 points a good portion of the time in this matchup and that means the Bama defense has to play not just good but great defense to have a safely nestled win against a number of this size. I have a feeling it is a VERY slow paced game with limited possessions.
 
bloodhound said:
only differ on fla, unlv and unc and dont like any of opponents enough to try and persuade differently

BOL Kyle
Click to expand...

Unlv moved up and fla down so market agrees with ya on two of three .. luckily it is the two I haven't touched yet.

Interestingly, I see those interested in UNLV seem to indicate a lack of faith in Houston as the reasoning ... and my interest in UNLV is that I think they are under rated right now by market.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I jumped on A&M as well. Haven't had a chance to digest the card yet, but on first glance I like Utah and I locked in Akron +12.5. (BOL moved it down to 12 immediately thereafter). Need to determine whether LA-La is this bad, because if they are, Boise -17 has a lot of value.
Click to expand...

The Akron things is going to largely be about Marshall as a road favorite historically. Akron looked really good against Penn State as well .. played them dead even by eye-ball if not by box score.

Boise State hard to figure right now .. looked really good against ole miss and csu but REALLY bad against UCONN last week. Their kids don't seem the type to have two bad games in a row though over the years. I don't know what to make of Louisiana because I sort of liked them on paper coming into the year and right now the product they are putting on the field isn't very good. That is a lot of points to cover but Boise routinely does so at home. I am not looking to fade Boise, especially in a home game. Another team I think is under rated by market right now in general ( Played them weeks 1, 2, and 3 going 2-1 so I am obviously valuing them higher than market ). And I haven't adjusted Louisiana PR that much and that could be warranted. I might actually get convinced Boise is the play if I dig deep enough
 
clowncar said:
Week 1 17-16 -0.8
Week 2 17-12-1 3.7, 2.9
week 3 14-10-1, 2.9, 5.8
overall 48-38-10. 5.8, 55.8%

A good week in week 3 but to be honest, it was disappointing to me. I will recap the losers later. Golfing and having a day today so it is unlikely I get to attack openers this week but who knows, maybe it works out. The week 4 card is terrible from a fan perspective.

Locked In:

#316 Toledo -8
#317 Terps +1.5
#327 Tulane +18
#331 UNC +3 -115
#382 Arkansas -12.5 -121
#353 Texas AM -30
#352 S bama -1.5
#350 usm -4
#389 Oklahoma -7
Strong Leans:

unlv +20.5
Oklahoma -11.5 leaned it at 11.5 ,, have to take at 7
California +12.5

Talk Me Off Leans:

Florida +15.5
Click to expand...


gl this week Kyle

hard to call it a terrible card when #1 gets knocked off on their home field :cigarguy:
 
TheGarfather said:
GL this week

You know anything about Ball State?
Click to expand...

Not really .. the Indiana State team they lost to isn't that bad of a football team but that is still a bad loss. Colgate is Colgate and the close game they played with Iowa doesn't look nearly as good anymore to me, especially since they were outgained 219 to 455 in that one. But words cannot describe the step backwards their offense has taken. They are 97th in the nation in total offense after three games when two of the games were against FCS competition. I mean the end of year numbers for the Ball State offense were more than a hundred yards better per game... full schedule! They played a lesser Toledo team fairly even last year, winning on a late TD ... Huge step up in competition for one team, HUGE step down in competition for the other. And while I think Toledo was outplayed in both games fairly clearly, it might not be as bad as it looks. Ball State just can't replace the QB right now and the guy in there just isn't playing at a high level. Toledo has faced two really good gamers already.
 
Ok .. got to head out .. I know responses lacked detail but hope I conveyed my thoughts anyway.
 
clowncar said:
Ya this game I had minus a td preseason and just -4 now. I didn't see the wvu game but terps oline was dominated by the bulls DL in week 2. It is hard to know exactly what Cuse is as they played without Hunt most of the Nova game so we really only have last week as far as their offense is concerned as a measuring stick. We also have the problem of knowing exactly what that cmich team was last week ... they beat purdue good but struggled vs fcs the week prior. Cuse shut down their running game completely and their offense completely so some of the 464 yards they got is just cmich tiring. And cmich was without their two best offensive options for the game ( And still steamed down against cuse ). I doubt you see terps able to ram it down the Oranges throat but this is a pretty big step up in level of competition for Syracuse from prior weeks and if you have to play in the dome, you want the 12:00-1:00 start time.

The situation is not the best ... disappointing loss to a rival ( thought wvu outplayed terps worse than the 3 point margin by box score ) the game prior and conference opener the game after.

I might be too gradual lowering the terp pr but it is hard to lower it a ton off a 6 turnover performance and the team they lost to by a fg last week is now only a TD dog to Oklahoma.

Have Terps units fairly consistently rated higher than cuse. Just need a good four quarters for once.
Click to expand...
Thanks for your thoughts Kyle. I see Ok defense probably being better prepared to face the spread than MD was as they see it more often in Big 12 play. I would also think they can probably generate some pressure on Trickett from their DL and may mix in more blitzing (something MD did not do vs. WVU). Of course you have to have the DB's to play vs. the spread and it seems most college teams are lacking in really good man to man defenders so that is always a risk. I like OK as well here and understand your point about the underestimation of WVU. MD I do believe can play a lot better than we have seen and will need to prove it on the field.
 
Totals and another side:

Add

#315/#316 Ball State/Toledo under 65.5
#365/#366 Clemson/FSU under 64
#385 New Mexico -3
#357/#358 Florida/Alabama under 52.5
 
You can already see market tightening ..... it's a shame to not convert better early with those huge edges.
 
Added the totals to their respective lean lists ... and also added a UConn TMO lean.

I am about 99% sure I won't be taking UConn but as someone who has watched both teams .... I think UConn is getting better every week and I think usf is just usf. UConn played pretty much dead even with Boise State last week and doubt they are intimidated in the least by usf. Numbers don't like UConn despite what my eyes are telling me so I have to lay off I think .. but I wouldn't mind getting input on that game from others.

Also ... hope Dollaz can chime in with a midweek injury report on the qb for ODU because if he is right I will probably be on the over there. .... but I cant do it unless he is.

Also .. interested in some help in both defining Hawaii and in their overall valuation. Unfortunately I haven't caught a late night Hawaii game all year.
 
Regarding CU/Hawaii......it's a noon game here local, making it an 8:00am start for the biological clock. Also factor in a long flight a day or two prior from sea level to 5,440 ft and you've got enough for me to go on CU. They actually looked decent at times against ASU for their first true home game and I think they will play well this weekend. The crowd was pretty poor the other night for ASU and I don't expect much difference for this game. They were loud early but many left due to a late start and ASU lead late.

Your under may be a good look as well but the few totals I've played this year have been horrible and I've sworn them off. Basically fade whatever I think on the total of this game.
 
I looked close at the rebs this week,why.... they cannot stop the run,you could block for me and we`d go for 200 on them...cougars have zero run game.
If Decker can get the ball to #81 on what appears a horrible pass D that 3tds is going to look a hell of a lot..and they can get murray-lawrence going..why he miss 1st 2 games ?
This poss a good match-up for them...
Watched all the niu game last week,strange kick wasnt it? 4 local...anyway a rare chance for me to watch them live.
I`ll prob be on them ML as well if I can find it GL.

take a good look at the CU game

:shake:
 
Silkydiamonds said:
We're bumping heads a lot this week. It's ok I get to learn from the oracle. Keep up the good work! :cheers3:
Click to expand...

If ECU is that good and unc is as bad as they were against sdsu you win that one easy and if terps are just bad and not just playing bad you win that one too. I don't mind losing to a heater.

Thanks Manuk. I think UNLV is a little better than people think. The passing game to the big WR's is decent and the oline is decent. Struggling to pull the trigger for the road travel and playing against a decent defense in my estimation. Something feels wrong about unlv but the line just says value to me ... struggling

Utes - If I wanted any part of the Hawaii side I would take them first half. Sea level team traveling to altitude is gonna have them gassed by the 4th quarter and that makes it hard on the total as well ... at least for how I have it as going under the number. Thanks for the information
 
clowncar said:
To be as basic as possible .. I don't see the NIU DE's who are about 225 apiece being able to stop the off tackle running game of Arkansas with stud RB behind a HUGE offensive line. For right or wrong, I just won't count letdown spots or lookahead spots for much with a 3-9 team from the previous year and I won't do it when a 3-9 team is facing a 12-2 team from the previous year who is now 3-0 having beaten a BCS conference team who the whole world thought was better than Arkansas before the season started. Arkansas has familiarity with the type of schemes NIU runs except they normally are the lesser athletes. Just see them mauling NIU up front....
Click to expand...

Thanks for posting this. I won't deny the huge mismatch on Arky's O Line and the Huskies D line. For me these lookahead spots are more about betting against the team with the lookahead/letdown, than betting for the team you are backing. Logic would say, the shittier the opponent, the more likely a team is to look past them. I think they could have made this line 20 and still gotten plenty of money on Arky. The fact that this opened where it did is telling IMO.

Jealous of your get on Toledo at -8. I just laid 14 and felt good about it until I noticed what you jumped on earlier in the week.

Best of luck as always.
 
– Old Dominion senior quarterback Taylor Heinicke has sat out of practice so far this week after suffering a bruised shoulder in the Monarchs 17-3 win over Eastern Michigan on Saturday night.He is expected to start this weeks game at Rice, ODU’s first Conference USA game.
Bruce Rader spoke with head coach Bobby Wilder this evening and he said the soreness is not effecting Heinicke’s throwing motion.
Heinicke was going to participate in practice today, but Wilder held him out because it was raining.
Wilder said Heinicke is expected to practice tomorrow
 
scdoggy said:
Thanks for posting this. I won't deny the huge mismatch on Arky's O Line and the Huskies D line. For me these lookahead spots are more about betting against the team with the lookahead/letdown, than betting for the team you are backing. Logic would say, the shittier the opponent, the more likely a team is to look past them. I think they could have made this line 20 and still gotten plenty of money on Arky. The fact that this opened where it did is telling IMO.

Jealous of your get on Toledo at -8. I just laid 14 and felt good about it until I noticed what you jumped on earlier in the week.

Best of luck as always.
Click to expand...


I just don't think Arkansas can view themselves as great and view niu as shitty. Doesn't qualify as a lookahead .... letdown maybe though after a rare decent win for them.

Ya thanks on Toledo ... it is nice to see things move over the course of a few days and know that I at least did well on most of the games .. of course I also took usm at -4 ( have to be one of the only people in the world with a number that bad on that game ) and that has blown up in my face.
 
You don't think A&M looming on the schedule next week would have them looking ahead? This sets up perfectly as a sandwich game for them, coming off a big win, now getting a lesser opponent. NIU is many steps down from where they have been the last few years.
 
scdoggy said:
You don't think A&M looming on the schedule next week would have them looking ahead? This sets up perfectly as a sandwich game for them, coming off a big win, now getting a lesser opponent. NIU is many steps down from where they have been the last few years.
Click to expand...

I think you are either giving Arkansas too much credit for thinking they are good enough to look past people or I am not giving them enough credit for thinking they can walk over a team who has been better than them for the last half decade. I agree NIU is a step down from where they have been but doubt the Arkansas kids know what we do. More likely they see a team that has won 48 of their last 58, played in a bcs bowl recently, is undefeated with a win over Northwestern and has just been a better football program than theirs ...

Who is Arkansas right now to look past NIU to a game against TAMU?

Usually we are in agreement but I don't think the sandwich, lookahead theory apply ... maybe letdown since they beat a decent opponent for once and might have partied some ... but eh... agree to disagree this time.
 
I think most teams in the SEC think the world revolves around their conference. They are the elites, and then there is the rest of the NCAA. So I can easily see a lookahead to ATM.
Good discussion. I'm looking forward to seeing how it unfolds. Hopefully Arky wins by 13 and we both get money.
 
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