time to post my week 3 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Week One: 22-29 -9.90 units
Week two 28-26 -0.6 units
Overall 50-55 -10.5 units

Record doesn't include a tiny loss with Oklahoma (28,29.5). And with Arkansas and Memphis being rather large plays for me, I am doing worse than the 10.5 units listed in the posted record. Felt I capped considerably better this week than last but that is like saying someone was funnier than Dane Cook. I like overs this week, and if I get decent weather reports in the carolinas at any point I will be pounding some more that look appealing. 4-3 and 3-4 in the GN contest but with a lot of the line moves doing really bad in week 2, that actually won't be that bad as ODU, Liberty, Kstate, and some others really disappointed the players who like to take advantage of the stale lines. Good tournament/contest strategy (except a lot of them are doing it) in general but as an originator it is kind of annoying in handicapping contest. Can't begrudge people for using good strategy, just think it lacks individual talent.

Action:

Boston College at Wake Forest (Over 51.5) Winner
Georgia State at Memphis (Memphis -26.5, over 59) Winner, Winner
Oklahoma at Iowa State (Oklahoma -18) loser 3-2
Ball State at Indiana (Ball State +14.5, over 57.5) loser loser 3-4
Temple at Maryland (Terps -16, over 47) loser winner 4-5
Rutgers at Kansas (Rutgers +3, over 44) loser winner 5-6
Hawaii at Army (7 -120 buy) push 5-6
Miami Florida at toledo (Pending) no action 5-6
Troy at Nebraska (Nebraska -11) loser 5-7
UCF at UNC (Game Canceled)
UTEP at Tennessee (Vols -29.5, Over 49) loser loser 5-9
Kent State at Penn State (Over 59) winner 6-9
FSU at Cuse (FSU -3) loser 6-10
ECU at VT (Game Canceled)
Georgia Tech at Pitt (Georgia Tech -3 -120) loser 6-11
Tulane at UAB (Tulane -3.5, over 55) loser push 6-12
Vanderbilt at ND (Under 53) winner 7-12
Ohio at Virginia (Ohio 7 bet canceled, Ohio 3.5) loser 7-13
Ga Southern at Clemson (Not betting)
LSU at Auburn (under 45) winner 8-13
USF at Illinois (Over 59)?loser 8-14
BYU at Wisconsin (Wisconsin -21, Over 44) loser winner 9-15
Duke at Baylor (Under 50.5) loser 9-16
SMU at Michigan (Michigan -35) loser 9-17
Boise State at Ok St (Boise 3, over 63.5) loser winner 10-18
USM at App State (canceled)
Cmich at Niu (NIU -14) loser 10-19
Wbgvu at NCST (game canceled)
Miami Oh at Minnesota (Miami Ohio 14.5) loser 10-20
UNT at Arkansas (Under 70.5) winner 11-20
CSU at Florida (Florida -20) winner 12-20
UTSA at Kstate (Kstate -20 over 46.5) winner winner 14-20
Houston at Texas Tech (houston 3 over 69) loser wonner 15-21
SJSU at Oregon (Oregon -41 over 68) loser loser 15-23
ODU at Charlotte (ODU -1, ODU Charlotte over 40) Loser, Winner 16-24
Eastern Michigan at Buffalo (-3 -115) winner 17-24
Texas State at S Bama (Texas State 11) winner 18-24
Alabama at Ole Miss (Alabama -20, over 70.5) winner loser 19-25
Oregon State at Nevada (Oregon State 4, over 71) winner winner21-25
Arkansas State at Tulsa (Arkansas State -2, over 72) winner loser 22-26
MTSU at Georgia (MTSU 33) loser 22-27
Umass at FIU (Over 59.5) winner 23-27
ULL at Miss State (-33) winner 24-27
Missouri at Purdue (Purdue 7.5, over 62.5) winnner winner 26-27
Akron at NW (NW -21 over 45.5) loser winner 27-28
Western Kentucky at Ville (Ville -22.5) loser 27-29
Marshall at South Carolina (canceled)
ULM at TAMU (Not betting)
UNM at NMSU (Under 58) loser 27-30
USC at Texas (Texas -3) winner 28-30
Ohio State at TCU (Ohio State -13, over 58) loser winner 29-31
ASU at SDSU (Over 45) winner 30-31
Fresno State at UCLA (Fresno St 1.5). Winner 31-31

Week One: 22-29 -9.90 units
Week two 28-26 -0.6 units
Week three 31-31 -3.1 units
Overall 81-86 -13.6 units
 
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Adds
Boston College at Wake Forest (Over 51.5)
Georgia State at Memphis (Memphis -26.5, over 59)
Oklahoma at Iowa State (Oklahoma -18)
Ball State at Indiana (Ball State +14.5, over 57.5)
Rutgers at Kansas (Rutgers +3)
Troy at Nebraska (Nebraska -11)
UTEP at Tennessee (Vols -29.5, Over 49)
Kent State at Penn State (Over 59)
Georgia Tech at Pitt (Georgia Tech -3 -120)
Tulane at UAB (Tulane -3.5, over 55)
Vanderbilt at ND (Under 53)
Ohio at Virginia (Ohio 7)
USF at Illinois (Over 59)
BYU at Wisconsin (Wisconsin -21, Over 44)
Duke at Baylor (Under 50.5)
SMU at Michigan (Michigan -35)
Boise State at Ok St (Boise 3, over 63.5)
Cmich at Niu (NIU -14)
Miami Oh at Minnesota (Miami Ohio 14.5)
UNT at Arkansas (Under 70.5)
CSU at Florida (Florida -20)
UTSA at Kstate (Kstate -20 over 46.5)
Houston at Texas Tech (houston 3 over 69)
SJSU at Oregon (Oregon -41 over 68)
Texas State at S Bama (Texas State 11)
Alabama at Ole Miss (Alabama -20, over 70.5)
Oregon State at Nevada (Oregon State 4, over 71)
Arkansas State at Tulsa (Arkansas State -2, over 72)
Umass at FIU (Over 59.5)
Missouri at Purdue (Purdue 7.5, over 62.5)
Akron at NW (NW -21 over 45.5)
Ohio State at TCU (Ohio State -13, over 58)
ASU at SDSU
 
Add

Rutgers/Kansas over 44 -115
Terps -16 Owls/Terps over 47 -125
Lsu /Auburn under 45
MTSU 33
ASU/SDSU over 45 -115
 
Nice to go to work and come back and see there was some affirming line and total movement.

Ohio bet is canceled. Not sure I like it as much neutral 3 as I did 7 at uva. But i will almost assuredly be playing them

I thought I was stealing money with Ohio State and that is one of the few that looks like people like the other side. ok. I will pay to see it.
 
pressitup said:
Thoughts on The Bows going a quarter of the globe to play at 12est?
Click to expand...


This game is so tough. The travel is brutal but I like the confidence Hawaii is playing with and they just played the option a couple weeks ago (though they got worse at defending it as the game went). Generally feel Hawaii is more vulnerable to passing offenses and Army is more vulnerable against passing offenses ... though they played liberty well. So by match up I kind of like Hawaii. But you need to have your legs to defend the option and that seems hard. Hell of a backdoor offense with Hawaii has to be considered as part of the equation. I will likely end up on the Bows. Not sure of weather at West Point
 
pressitup said:
Thoughts on The Bows going a quarter of the globe to play at 12est?
Click to expand...

In reference to the kick time, I looked it up and the 2010 week 2 Hawaii game at Army was also a 12 noon game. Hawaii did win that one 31-28 (+3) and Rolovich was OC play caller. So he has been part of a 6am kickoff before. I can't imagine that...6am kick that means team gets up at what time for pregame activities? Army was 7-6 with a bowl win that year and UH was 10-4 for further context.
 
Adds
for full disclosure multiple numbers on a couple of these. listed number with most invested.

Fresno State 1.5
UNM/NMSU Under 58
Ville -22.5
Ohio 3.5
 
Adds
I have an over fsu/cuse bet that I guess I forgot to post but cannot post now due to staleness vs movement. still like it a little at current.


Odu -1, odu/charlotte over 40
Hawaii 7 -120 (buy)
 
Kansas State - The wildcats get some major class relief from the Mississippi State defense to this version of the UTSA defense. UTSA has yet to play a game where they were able to take away the pass and run giving up 7.55 yards per play this year which is 123rd best in the nation in the short sample of this year. Just what the doctor ordered for Kansas State in need of a good offensive performance. Snyder called out the offensive line for being soft this week and decided to settle on Thompson at QB and it all lines up for Kansas State to post a number this coming weekend. UTSA is averaging 3.49 yards per play and just 237.5 yards per game to start the year (127th) and won't match up well this week either. UTSA schedule has not been easy (get texas state, utep and rice in their next three so it gets easier). Kansas State was embarrassed last week by one of the better teams in the country at home and I think they will make their fans happy this week. Snyder called his own offensive line "soft" after the game and settled on Thompson as the starting QB. It's a motivational recipe to score points this week and I like to have that motivation with big favorites. I look for a better game from that soft offensive line which has a lot of players who performed well last year back this year, and I look for Thompson to have a good to validate his coaches decision. UTSA will struggle at this venue, against this defense, to move the football and Kstate will simply wear them down.
 
Ball State - It looks like Indiana may just be an average football team. The hoosiers are giving up 4.74 yards per play and 310 or so yards per game which are both a little above average defensively but the opponents were FIU and UVA in a rainstorm. Still, it appears this is a similar but maybe slightly lesser version of the defense of last year. The offense appears to be continuing its slide (14th in 2015, 56th in 2016, and 69th in 2017). Ball State has some nice weapons offensively and while their numbers against Notre Dame were less than stellar, that is one of the better defenses in the country that they faced and I actually think Ball State can leave that game feeling better about themselves and could gain confidence from it. The defense has appeared to make strides, year over year, and I think the instate rivalry comes into play here on the ball state side (I don't think indiana cares with a bigger game against michigan state next week). Indiana has proven they aren't afraid to give up a backdoor cover either and Neal and company are certainly capable of doing that at this number. I don't think there are many scenarios where this bet is drawing dead in the fourth quarter.
 
Miami Ohio - This is more a fade of the Minnesota offense. They had 522 yards in their first game of the year against NMSU but they got NMSU off a bruising game with Wyoming and an incredibly short week. Just 307 yards at home last week against Fresno State. This just seems like a very high number for them to cover with that offense against what should be a competent Miami Ohio team. There is some concern with the Miami Ohio rush defense through two weeks which could come into play here for this game. Ragland was effective week one throwing for 357 yards and 3 TD against a decent Marshall team and then Miami Ohio just got completely shut down by the bearcat defense and the rainstorm last week. Assuming good conditions, I expect him to be good enough to keep the redhawks within the number.
 
Terps - Hard to not be impressed with what the Terps are doing and the team appears to have really good chemistry right now. They have a quality offensive line that should match up well against Temple. But the reality is that most of this play is predicated on how poor Temple has played to start the year. Just 303 yards per game in their two games against Villanova and Buffalo and have to think terps defense is better than either of those defensively. 46 yards rushing against nova and 115 yards rushing vs buffalo is not a good sign and if there is any kind of weather issue (as pointed out by Timh in his thread) and the game becomes a battle of rushing attacks, it is hard to not really like terps in that scenario either. Nutile is completing about 52% of his passes and has already thrown four picks this year. Maryland gave up 2.45 yards per carry through two games and completely shut down the BG running game last week, so Nutile will have to be good for Temple to compete. Game is a case of one teams chemistry not appearing to be good while the other teams chemistry does appear to be good.
 
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Rutgers - Kansas was plus 7 early in the week last week heading into the Central Michigan game. They are -2.5/-3 heading at home heading into this game. Well, I am not mathematician but that implies that Cmich would have been the favorite (or pick) at Kansas. Central Michigan will finish in last place in the Western division of the MAC this year and just not a good football team. Rutgers played vanilla against Texas State who could do nothing offensively against them and then played ohio state which is just a tough match up for anyone. Prior to the year it would have been inconceivable that they would be dogged in this game. And before we get carried away with the kansas 31-7 win against cmich, the jayhawks had 361 yards of offense in that game on 72 plays and they were plus six in turnovers. This line doesn't make sense to me and I am a sucker for the better team getting points. Also ... kansas hadn't won a road game since 2009 or some such thing and this might be a good week to face the jayhawks.
 
Not sure I want either team in this game personally, but would take Rutgers if I had to. I would believe their staff, if not their team, viewed this stretch they are entering into as very important, it is probably the easiest stretch they have had together at Rutgers. at Kansas, Buffalo, Indiana, Illinois. In their minds there are 4 winnable games in a row there and they should be able to go on a run if they have what they think they have. And even though they've struggled the last several years, they have competed better for sure vs teams their own "size" than KU. I think the D and the athletes at RU is better than KU. Only doubt I have is Sitkowski, not sure I have seen enough out of him to trust him.
 
He was upgraded to probable a couple days ago so it will be Sitkowski. He is more confident than the other guy which has its benefits and lack of benefits when he is color blind.
 
RetroVK said:
Terps - Hard to not be impressed with what the Terps are doing and the team appears to have really good chemistry right now. They have a quality offensive line that should match up well against Temple. But the reality is that most of this play is predicated on how poor Temple has played to start the year. Just 303 yards per game in their two games against Villanova and Buffalo and have to think terps defense is better than either of those defensively. 46 yards rushing against nova and 115 yards rushing vs buffalo is not a good sign and if there is any kind of weather issue (as pointed out by Timh in his thread) and the game becomes a battle of rushing attacks, it is hard to not really like terps in that scenario either. Nutile is completing about 52% of his passes and has already thrown four picks this year. Maryland gave up 2.45 yards per carry through two games and completely shut down the BG running game last week, so Nutile will have to be good for Temple to compete. Game is a case of one teams chemistry not appearing to be good while the other teams chemistry does appear to be good.
Click to expand...

YEs, absolutely. Poor rushing attack for Temple, passing not good either. Md. can pound them or throw on them. Temple had 14 gift points last week.
 
Marsski said:
What about the class drop for NIU this week? I bet it like a goddamn horse race just for that....
Click to expand...

It goes beyond NIU having faced two of the better defenses in the country but Cmich is just a bad football team right now. I don't know what else they have to prove to cement that into the market. They were absolutely dominated by uk and caught every break and played about even with kansas and kansas caught every break. They just are not the same due to turnover of key personnel. There is also a little revenge factor after the NIU collapse after halftime that occurred last year.
 
Vols and over-- Huge lookahead spot for both teams as UTEP will be way, way, way more focused for their home game against their rival 45 minutes to the northwest via I-10. Vols have some little cocktail party that I guess they might be interested in too. But there is a problem here for them .... they aren't good enough right now to be looking ahead. See the minus sign next to the number by the vols will only happen one more time all year. Yep. They will be favored all of one more time this season. You have to treat the home crowd in these spots. Obviously speed and size advantages everywhere you look and there is little reason to think that Tennessee backups won't do damage either. Utep got 229 and 388 against Northern Arizona and UNLV respectively. The team has now lost 14 games in a row and they know Tennessee will be 15 ... . but they also know they might be able to beat NMSU .. who is also their biggest rival. I just don't see UTEP being competitive in this one to the point where even a disinterested vols team could destroy them. Normally with the double lookahead I would consider the under but here I like Tennessee to hit forties or higher a very large percentage of the time and they have this puppy totaled high forties when i bet it and mid forties now. They are giving up about six and a half yards per play so far on defense and I have to think vols can at least match that.

Obviously vols are five score favorites for reason so I don't want to pound on my miners too much or list the obvious more than I already have. I just want to point out to everyone that thinks this is a big lookahead for vols (maybe it is) that UTEP will absolutely be looking ahead themselves this week.
 
Passing on the following games:

Ga Southern at Clemson - huge dog with a running clock after Clemson just played a nail biter at TAMU .... seems like an ok spot for dog ... except for the fact that ga southern runs option and Clemson has conference opener vs option of GT. They have to prepare well for this game and the defense got torched a little bit by clemson standards against TAMU and may want to prove something. So I really just don't want to get involved in it. If I had to pick a score, I would go with 38-6 .. but no way I play this under when a semi-interested clemson could reach it on their own if they are shutting down the option.. REALLY hard game imo from a betting perspective

ULM at TAMU - again a huge dog with a decent offense after TAMU just played a nail biter against Clemson and has Bama on deck. I was super impressed with what TAMU did in the clemson game and I can't unsee that enough to want to take ULM in what seems like the biggest sandwich game I have seen in years.
 
Adds (smallish)

fsu -3 (small - thought I posted this already too. I also have the over at a good number that I won't post fwiw)
Buffalo -3 -115
Miss St -33
 
I think that leaves just the Miami at Toledo game for me to figure out. Hopefully CTG member Canes1 can provide some insight on that one. Welcome thoughts from anyone else as well.

I felt good about this week and glad that if you hopped in when I did that you got line value on most games as of this evening.

Here are my investments where the market says I am wrong:

UTEP/Vols over 49 (currently 47.5) .... I took vols at the same time at 29.5 and they are now 31. I bring this up because the combination of vols line moving up while total moves down is the market saying UTEP ain't scoring much. In any event, my 49 to 47.5 is kind of a big deal. I think I have a good read on this game but we shall see.


Oklahoma -18, (currently 17.5) - not to key a number. I am sure I am with the dumb dumbs on this one but it is revenge.

Nebraska -11 (currently -10) - I will divulge that I considered this for the GN contest but did not take it on either ticket. Concerns are mainly injury related. kind of a significant difference between 10 and 11 (wise guy says "1 point"). Bothers me a little less given I do have a bit of a stronger positive attitude on this one.

fsu -3 - There are 2.5's now. I have no idea what to expect from the players in that one.

Oregon State at Nevada - total has dropped a couple points

I think that is about it as far as what market thinks of the plays.
 
RetroVK said:
Vols and over-- Huge lookahead spot for both teams as UTEP will be way, way, way more focused for their home game against their rival 45 minutes to the northwest via I-10. Vols have some little cocktail party that I guess they might be interested in too. But there is a problem here for them .... they aren't good enough right now to be looking ahead. See the minus sign next to the number by the vols will only happen one more time all year. Yep. They will be favored all of one more time this season. You have to treat the home crowd in these spots. Obviously speed and size advantages everywhere you look and there is little reason to think that Tennessee backups won't do damage either. Utep got 229 and 388 against Northern Arizona and UNLV respectively. The team has now lost 14 games in a row and they know Tennessee will be 15 ... . but they also know they might be able to beat NMSU .. who is also their biggest rival. I just don't see UTEP being competitive in this one to the point where even a disinterested vols team could destroy them. Normally with the double lookahead I would consider the under but here I like Tennessee to hit forties or higher a very large percentage of the time and they have this puppy totaled high forties when i bet it and mid forties now. They are giving up about six and a half yards per play so far on defense and I have to think vols can at least match that.

Obviously vols are five score favorites for reason so I don't want to pound on my miners too much or list the obvious more than I already have. I just want to point out to everyone that thinks this is a big lookahead for vols (maybe it is) that UTEP will absolutely be looking ahead themselves this week.
Click to expand...

Just curious...what do you make the Florida/Tennessee line next week?
 
Curious on your FSU position. Noles are in shambles. They are now going to have to learn on the fly. D makes good 2H adjustments, but the O looks list at times.
 
RetroVK said:
Without handicapping and just looking at my PR, I would make it Florida -7
Click to expand...

Thanks, VK. Maybe I’m being biased, but I’m imagining it won’t open nearly that high. Maybe Florida -4. Depending how this week’s games go of course.
 
Penn State - Kent State over - This is a pace play for me. I suspect we see 160 plays in the game. In addition, it appears Franklin just has zero desire to stop scoring when he can. Against Pitt he was more aggressive up almost 40 with 5 minutes to go than he was the rest of the game. If we get anything at all from kent state we should be fine with the total.
 
Florida State -3 - this is a little on the smallish investment size but I am basically backing the possibility of FSU just getting better each week and at some point understanding the Taggert systems and being organized. There are not many lines that have changed as much as this one from what it would have been a couple weeks ago. It is a little speculative but the talent on this team is there for 100% certainty so it will all click at some point. I doubt this can be a really, really bad bet unless the oline struggles again. While I am one of the few who likes Sumlin, it may be pretty telling that FSU has slid this far and TAMU outplayed clemson last saturday. Jimbo might be better than I thought. Not my favorite investment of the week. As mentioned previously, I have more invested in the over but at a way different number than what is out there now and can't post that or recommend it strongly at current (though I think it goes over current)
 
Tulane and Over - This was a matchup play for me. Savannah State was shut out by UAB. Meaningless. Coastal Carolina scored 47 and averaged over 7.5 yards per play. Meaningful. Coastal schemes have certain similarities to what Tulane is running. UAB is 109th in the nation when it comes to yards per carry defense yielding 5.57 yards. They have done this while playing Savannah State and Coastal Carolina. That is evidence that they just cannot defend the run. And while the Tulane offensive line isn't the greatest in the world, they will probably have success here. On the flip side, UAB has been good offensively and I think they can have some success here against the TULANE GREEN WAVE WOW defense.
 
Imagine bringing everyone back and having high hopes and then going Loss Loss Loss to Liberty, FIU and Charlotte. And I thought being a UTEP fan was tough.
 
Ryno14 said:
Thoughts on Memphis tonight?
Click to expand...

I like Memphis to roll. Concern would be georgia state rush defense hasn't been bad but unlike kennesaw and more like ncsu, I think memphis can pass enough to get the job done. the 41-7 score from ncsu vs gast was a tad deceiving though. I played a lot of overs this week and this is one of my least favorite. I do like the spot for Memphis. 38-14 is kind of the fear.
 
Ya I don't see much value on the over at where it sits now either.

I will add some thoughts on other plays throughout the day when I take breaks from work. Trying to get a lot done before I head to the islands tomorrow.
 
I dunno. Probably depends on whether Memphis uses their depth on defense with a big lead. The good news is that I think Memphis is the type of team that doesn't mind pouring it on if they can.

I have a feeling the total gets pounded down the last few hours before kickoff.


Not really liking this game even though I have some good numbers vs market. Something doesn't feel right about it. On the flip side .... line moves in Memphis games are usually good in all sports. cough cough
 
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