time to post my week 3 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
41-32-3

Week 3

Wake Forest -3
ASU -24
Rice -6
Latech 11
Navy -2
SJSU 8
UTEP -4
Cin -18
UNC -7
Neb 4 -120
Northwestern 3 -105
Temple/Umass over 53.5
ncst/odu under 62
charlotte/mtsu under 60
ballst/EMU over 61.5
colorado/csu under 59.5
UTEP/NmSu under 62.5
indiana/wky over 68
Troy 35.5
USM 3
USM/Tex ST over 64.5
Clemson/Ville under 52

Strong Leans:

UNC -7.5 (juiced where I can play it and I would rather have 8 or 8.5 unjuiced) played at 7
CMich 6
NW 1.5 added at 3
 
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No opinion or lean.. should be totaled low which usually makes the pts more valuable though. Their defense will keep them in games again it seems but I can't trust them to score on that opponent to want to take it. The other team will improve more as the season progresses as well, compared to USU which is probably more plateaued in my opinion.
 
Matchup
1st Downs 23 15
3rd down efficiency 7-16 1-9
4th down efficiency 1-1 0-0
Total Yards 419 370
Passing 373 221
Comp-Att 30-45 8-14
Yards per pass 7.6 13.8
Interceptions thrown 3 0
Rushing 46 149
Rushing Attempts 32 37
Yards per rush 1.4 4.0
Penalties 6-52 4-30
Turnovers 3 0
Fumbles lost 0 0
Interceptions thrown 3 0
Possession
 
The Boxer in post 6 is from the Wake Forest at Cuse game this past weekend. I was probably going to post it in relation to giving my self a passing grade on taking Wake against cuse if I got around to posting grades this week. But I post it here because I think the Army secondary is awful and Wake has an improved passing game and the willingness to use it (Uconn failed to exploit Army in that respect as much as they should have). Obviously the interceptions have to come down if you are going to win football games but I really like this match up for the Wake offense.
 
ASU I played MAINLY because I power rated the game at 31 but also like some other factors. I didn't do a thorough check of injuries or anything there .. just playing a wide variance. If the WR for ASU hold on to the ball then they should score a ton. Also, they just faced the Cal Poly option and did have some problems but you can't ask for better preparation to face UNM on a short week. Meanwhile, UNM was out-athleted by Tulsa.
 
For most teams, you would consider the UNT game as sandwich game for a Texas school who played the horns the week before and gets baylor the week after. But this is the conference opener for Rice and they face an unfriendly conference schedule in my estimation. This game has a lot of meaning for them. The two box scores below also tell us quite a bit in my estimation

1st Downs 30 11
3rd down efficiency 14-21 3-8
4th down efficiency 1-1 0-0
Total Yards 462 277
Passing 234 128
Comp-Att 23-38 5-10
Yards per pass 5.8 11.6
Interceptions thrown 3 0
Rushing 228 149
Rushing Attempts 58 28
Yards per rush 3.9 5.3
Penalties 6-55 4-42
Turnovers 5

[TABLE="class: mod-data, width: 515"]
<tbody style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; color: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none;">[TR="class: highlight"]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]6-16[/TD]
[TD]9-15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]1-1[/TD]
[TD]0-2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]240[/TD]
[TD]444[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]128[/TD]
[TD]171[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att[/TD]
[TD]16-34[/TD]
[TD]17-24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass[/TD]
[TD]3.6[/TD]
[TD]6.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]112[/TD]
[TD]273[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush[/TD]
[TD]3.4[/TD]
[TD]5.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]7-73[/TD]
[TD]6-50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]4

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
I think LT is a good matchup. Kstate offense is not very explosive. They wore down the UTSA defense a little bit late in the game on Saturday because the UTSA offense was struggling to get first downs. They had 13 points through three qtrs. They certainly don't present the same problems that WKU presented for LaTech and the LT offense is very capable of coming in the backdoor at this number. I actually think they can win this game outright. I do have terrible history of losing when fading Kstate. Snyder owns me. But he usually isn't favored this much over a quality bowl level team. UTSA had some success throwing but they took too many penalties in that game to have a good day offensively. I think the LT pass game can have success.
 
Navy I sort of like the situation. ECU fought hard to stay in the game with Florida last week and have a game they will likely care about at home against VT the next week. Meanwhile they have to hit the road again to face a team you have to be focused for. Towson ran for 179, florida for 168 .... navy should have a field day running the ball. Meanwhile, Navy is coming off a bye after a decent performance against a lesser. I will take my chances they win this game and hopefully not by exactly 1
 
Oregon State is coming off a trip to Michigan with Stanford following. Bad spot. Some concern after watching SJSU that they are not as good as I gave them credit for in the spring and summer. Really good recruiting class they brought in btw. Anyway, team tired late against AFA but they played solid defense most of the game and assuming they protect the ball, I think they can compete here. Game will slow down some for Oregon State after getting just 138 on offense against the Wolverines and I am concerned there is the chance they come out angry but that is a tough offense to lay over a TD with against a team with a pulse. Does SJSU have one, is a question though.
 
UTEP is a class relief game. Sort of feel they looked better than score indicated in both games (I watched both .. I am a UTEP graduate after all).

View attachment 39454

Meanwhile, the two defensive performances from NMSU look poor. Backdoor could be a problem here with how UTEPs secondary has performed.
 
Situations and matchups aside (both of which I think are in our favor), the La Tech and Navy numbers are just off, period.
 
Would you believe I have made my very first Sunday night bet on a following Saturday game ? ! !
Took Wake Saw some of both teams yesterday. Much more of Army who have troubling tackling.
Had to give another half point.
GL Mr VK
 
Rice is 15-5 as a home favorite over the last 7 years under Bailiff. UNT 1-7 as a road dog the last 2 years. Not only can you make a case on matchups, but as you mention, the situation favors Rice, and the Owls find themselves in a role that suits them.

EDIT: ignore these numbers as this game is being played in Denton County, not Houston.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Rice is 15-5 as a home favorite over the last 7 years under Bailiff. UNT 1-7 as a road dog the last 2 years. Not only can you make a case on matchups, but as you mention, the situation favors Rice, and the Owls find themselves in a role that suits them.
Click to expand...

WHOOPS!! Rice is on the road in this one. Scratch that ^^^ but Rice is 17-7 since '08 as a favorite in any case.
 
Brass. It is another case of one team having a huge edge at QB and in this case most other positions as well. But if UNT falls behind, which is likely, then I think they have some issues to overcome just to stay in the game, let alone cover. I think you could worry about the situation depending on whether you consider the game meaningful to Rice when it is between Texas and Baylor. I think they will care, do not think they are good enough to take games for granted, and it is a conference game as I mentioned. But some might think Baylor on the horizon is a distraction.
 
As for Illinois .. they held W Illinois to 5 first downs and still threw the ball 54 times. So they used that game for a reason. Face a different animal in this game with UNC offense after facing that one and the kent state offense. And how bad the opposing offenses have been makes the Illinois offensive stats less flattering ... meaning when you hold an average FCS club to 5 first downs and throw 54 times, you should probably have done better than 500 yards. The scoreboard has flattered their performances in my opinion. 96 pts in two games on 421 yards per game.
 
"Cut" has already made sure that I die poor, not to mention sooner than I otherwise would. i was smart enough to back him in the Belk Bowl at least.

As long as he is ensuring that I die poor, I might as well have a good story on my death bed about it.

I have two hours of battery power so here is hoping I can get totals in tens of thousands of feet in the air.
 
He is doubtful mrob. But it is probably the only position where UTEP is somewhat loaded with depth. Not saying they are on Jones level .. maybe third best back in the conference behind Allen (injured wky) and Dixon (Latech).. but I wouldn't think he is worth powering that down from 4 to 2. Maybe it is the cause though. I mean those are some key numbers it went through.
 
Totals:

Temple/Umass over 53.5
ncst/odu under 62
charlotte/mtsu under 60
ballst/EMU over 61.5
colorado/csu under 59.5
UTEP/NmSu under 62.5
 
I pride myself on being prepared but I am still not done with a couple totals yet .. SC/UGA, UCLA/BYU for instance.
 
we are not there yet, but a good time to mention that LSU vs Syracuse in upstate NY has been slated for 1130 AM kick off


IF LSU handles Auburn....IF they do in a serious revenge spot at home, then I can see a hiccup maybe in NY early in the AM...


BUT I know NOTHING about Cuse......how are they this year?
 
Got outplayed at home by Wake Forest. Are without their Starting QB who was injured for the year.
 
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