time to post my week 14 card so far

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RetroVK

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Ohio -3 push
Ohio/Miami Ohio over 52 loss
tcu -6.5
tcu/texas over 55
lsu -2
lsu/tamu over 52
Illinois/northwestern under 52
Michigan 21.5
Old Dominion +3.5
old dom/fau over 67
UTSA -4
Purdue +3
Georgia Tech 13
GT/UGA over 64.5
Rice 7.5
Rice/Latech under 50.5
wvag/isu over 63
South Carolina +7
Colorado +9.5
Utah/Colorado over 58.5
Georgia State +14
Texas State/GaState over 63
Wyoming/unm under 62
Notre Dame 7
Notre Dame/usc over 62 ( big )
missst/ole miss under 49.5
Utah st 10
Utah state/boise st under 56
mtsu/utep under 58
pitt 10 -118
pitt/mia over 56
wake 19
wake/duke over 43
Alabama -9 big
Washington/Washington state under 64.5
2h csu -5
2h Missouri Pick
2h Arkansas/Missouri under 21.5
2h Nebraska/iowa under 24
2h Houston/smu under 24.5
2h niu/wmich under 27.5
NIU +7.5 -115
NIU/Wmich under 59
wku +24
wku/marshall under 74.5
ucf -11
ucf/usf over 43.5
buffalo/umass under 55.5
ballst +10
ballst/bgreen under 58
Arkansas -3
navy -8.5
navy/sbama over 54
Stanford/ucla under 50


lots of action ..... regular year plays ... old dominion, Georgia tech, Georgia State, ndame/usc over, Alabama, Utah state and mtsu/utep under.
 
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TCU -6.5/over 55-- I guess I will start with the concept of TCU has not been held under 30 pts all year, in any game. Texas tends to play faster football when not at true away venues. The result of that is the longhorns give up a lot more yards at home. In fact, Oklahoma and north texas were the only non-true-roadies that the horns failed to give up 389 ( 5 of 389 or more ) compared to holding every road opponent under that total yard number. Moreover, for several years running, the horns tend to struggle defensively against mobile qb's but have been fortunate in not facing many this year. In addition, which team plays the most similar style of offense to TCU right now in the big12? If you guessed Iowa State, you would be correct. And that ISU team went into Austin and put up over 500 yards of offense and over 40 pts. On the other side of the ball, you would expect Texas to take this opportunity to open things up a little. They are out of contention for any big12 honors and are already bowl eligible. Every aspect of the offense has steadily improved this year .. the run game is producing better and the qb play has steadily improved (especially with better wr health sans shipley). And you have to hope the horns coaching staff is smart enough to attack them through the air. TCU is 101st in pass defense in the nation and 22nd in the nation against the run (some of that is time and score related but still). If this game happens early to midseason, I think Texas tries to keep it close by pounding the run and running clock but not in this spot. Would have to think the officiating is for the big12 and not texas here and that is also to the long term benefit of the texas program. TCU a top fifteen pace team and Texas is shockingly middle of the road when you adjust both teams for opponents. So pace is there as well. If texas falls behind early, it should sail over the total ... if we get a 3-0 type first quarter where frogs are playing tight on the road (wvu comes to mind) and texas thinks they can slow play it to get to the fourth with a chance to win then it doesn't even approach the total. But the ISU game is glaring to me for this match up and I have to think TCU was flat for Kansas with it sandwiched in a run of at wvu, Kansas state, at Kansas, at texas.
 
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lsu -3/ over --- They are going to be able to do whatever they want against the texas am rush defense. lsu off a shutout and a bye .... how ready are they going to be offensively here? prior to being skunked at Arkansas they faced the ole miss defense and the bama defense. Just banking on that tamu rush defense to give the lsu offense some healing lotion.
 
LSU struggled finishing drives or it could have been a real nice night. Team is loaded for next year if they get any .. and I mean ANY kind of qb production
 
Friday losers

NIU +7.5 -115
NIU/Wmich under 59
wku +24
wku/marshall under 74.5
ucf -11
ucf/usf over 43.5
buffalo/umass under 55.5
ballst +10
ballst/bgreen under 58
Arkansas -3
navy -8.5
navy/sbama over 54
Stanford/ucla under 50
 
Thanks Bar


niu and under -- I see fairly similar level teams in this one. While I prefer the wmich squad overall, I think a closer look at the broncos schedule has to make you wonder a bit. The teams are very close statistically and that difference could be the aforementioned schedule. I think there is a decent chance of snow and regardless we are looking at 20 degree weather with 10mph winds. It will be cold and I think that hurts the wmich team more as niu is more reliant on the run and wmich is more reliant on the balance that the passing game gives them. I have a feeling this wmich team might be a team of destiny in the MAC this year and they might win this game but when I got over a td at BM, I have to think the team that has been there before with the better running attack in the cold will fair better, especially with wmich rb stud with a banged up ankle. I went with the under as I think both teams grind clock and I think FG kicking will be tough. In addition, these types of importnat games tend to be hard fought grinders where players are trying to avoid the big mistake. I still have the feeling that wmich wins this football game somehow and so it is a strange investment given it is just 7.5 but I will make wmich prove it against one of the better teams they have faced. Wmich wins have come against opponents with a combined record of 29-50.... just prove to me that you can blow out niu in a cold weather game that means something
 
As a lot of you know, I am a Marshall fanboy but radar is sending alarms to my brain, telling me that this might be the game the herd drops. Marshall has had a relatively easy time of it and their offense has benefitted from their defense having played some of the worst passing offenses in football. This has worked dramatically in their favor as they get big leads and the opponents are forced into doing things they aren't good at. Here they face a wky team that can move it through the air and get first downs. In addition, the wky defense has made big strides the last few weeks. They wont stop Marshall much but I think Marshall starts with worse field position than they are used to and wont be playing with an easy lead the whole game. Marshall pace of play is actually pretty average and the pace that is a concern is wky but I think they play a tad slower here as well. Backdoor is doable by wky even if the game goes badly. I could make a pretty good case for the over statistically but I am calling for the upset 35-31 wky .. wont put it in my recordkeeping but I have a little +1265 on the toppers to find a way in this one.
 
Agree on the Hilltoppers. Don't know about the outright, but fully expect them to put up some points. From what I have seen of Marshall, they tend to cruise once the game is in hand. I will be on the points as I can see a 10-17 point victory for Marshall. Spotting WKy this many is very dangerous for Herd backers. The Hilltopper defense is nothing to write home about, but they have scored on virtually everyone on their schedule. Don't see this as being any different. Marshall will get theirs, but don't think it will be enough to cover this large of a line.
 
clowncar said:
As a lot of you know, I am a Marshall fanboy but radar is sending alarms to my brain, telling me that this might be the game the herd drops. Marshall has had a relatively easy time of it and their offense has benefitted from their defense having played some of the worst passing offenses in football. This has worked dramatically in their favor as they get big leads and the opponents are forced into doing things they aren't good at. Here they face a wky team that can move it through the air and get first downs. In addition, the wky defense has made big strides the last few weeks. They wont stop Marshall much but I think Marshall starts with worse field position than they are used to and wont be playing with an easy lead the whole game. Marshall pace of play is actually pretty average and the pace that is a concern is wky but I think they play a tad slower here as well. Backdoor is doable by wky even if the game goes badly. I could make a pretty good case for the over statistically but I am calling for the upset 35-31 wky .. wont put it in my recordkeeping but I have a little +1265 on the toppers to find a way in this one.
Click to expand...


Big line indeed...

Hilltoppers tt on my radar...
 
I think you got the wrong allen starting at QB today for Arkie. A lot to ask for freshman first start on the road against a team playing for a lot..Maybe older brother is a go and I missed it.. GL today.
 
my scoreboard for the marshall game seems to be malfunctioning ....... Must have that game set on the easiest level on Madden
 
clowncar said:
my scoreboard for the marshall game seems to be malfunctioning ....... Must have that game set on the easiest level on Madden
Click to expand...
I was dying to see what they would make that 2h total considering where the game total ended. Jacked and then blasted.
 
GL this week kyle, I love that avatar did joepublic take that picture of you?

:tiphat:
 
Basically think game dynamics help Missouri and the total to stay under. Missouri Defensive front has found their way and I think both teams struggle to create big plays and the find their way into the end zone when the field shortens. Quarter and a half in, if Missouri hasn't closed the gap, Arkansas will be content running out the clock while Missouri will still be trying to score. A little concerned that Missouri found some things in the short passing game late in the half.
 
clowncar said:
As a lot of you know, I am a Marshall fanboy but radar is sending alarms to my brain, telling me that this might be the game the herd drops. Marshall has had a relatively easy time of it and their offense has benefitted from their defense having played some of the worst passing offenses in football. This has worked dramatically in their favor as they get big leads and the opponents are forced into doing things they aren't good at. Here they face a wky team that can move it through the air and get first downs. In addition, the wky defense has made big strides the last few weeks. They wont stop Marshall much but I think Marshall starts with worse field position than they are used to and wont be playing with an easy lead the whole game. Marshall pace of play is actually pretty average and the pace that is a concern is wky but I think they play a tad slower here as well. Backdoor is doable by wky even if the game goes badly. I could make a pretty good case for the over statistically but I am calling for the upset 35-31 wky .. wont put it in my recordkeeping but I have a little +1265 on the toppers to find a way in this one.
Click to expand...

very nice
 
The oracle strikes again. Calling for an upset with a 20+ point dog?? Ho Hum. Enjoy the cash Kyle. Awesome, awesome job.
 
Thanks all. rough season really so nice to get a decent score on a game.

ADD Saturday Action

Old Dominion +3.5
old dom/fau over 67
UTSA -4
Purdue +3
Georgia Tech 13
GT/UGA over 64.5
Rice 7.5
Rice/Latech under 50.5
wvag/isu over 63
South Carolina +7
Colorado +9.5
Utah/Colorado over 58.5
Georgia State +14
Texas State/GaState over 63
Wyoming/unm under 62
Notre Dame 7
Notre Dame/usc over 62 ( big )
missst/ole miss under 49.5
Utah st 10
Utah state/boise st under 56
mtsu/utep under 58
pitt 10 -118
pitt/mia over 56
wake 19
wake/duke over 43
Alabama -9 big
Washington/Washington state under 64.5

lots of action ..... regular year plays ... old dominion, Georgia tech, Georgia State, ndame/usc over, Alabama, Utah state and mtsu/utep under. I will try to get a ten second blurb on each game with action.
 
old dominion to the over ---fau 83rd in passing yards against, 87th in yards per pass attempt against. ODU 18th in passing yards and 29th in yards per pass attempt. A loss makes the game the last one for senior qb taylor heinike and a win makes odu bowl eligible which would be a huge reward for the group that led the transition to fbs and would likely be an entertaining team in the eyes of some bowl committees. On the flip side the thing fau does best is run the ball and odu has the 117th ranked rush defense in fbs and fau should find success running at home. At the end of the day the only elite run O/D or pass O/D lies with old dom, the best player on the field is the old dom qb, and he is a senior playing for bowl eligibility. Some pts are getting scored and when the dust settles the better team getting pts will win.
 
UTSA -4 --- I know it seems tough to lay anything with this club and their offense right now but I like quite a bit about the game. I think senior day is usually a very overrated angle in cfb but this is a special circumstance in my opinion. This is a team with quite a few seniors who were instrumental to the roadrunner program and I think despite the rough year, they will get a decent showing at their home venue. Obviously unt is a shell of what they were last year but this utsa team shut down that mean green team and held them to 334 yards. unt has played some ok defense at home this year but they have struggled on the road and I think utsa gets a few short fields to play with. utsa is 24th in the nation in ypc against and if you are going to score on them, you have to do it in the air and I just don't think unt's 116th ranked passing offense can do it.
 
Purdue -- Of all the above plays, this and the Washington total are the two I feel most sketchy about. Indiana is not a one trick pony right now, but they are a one stallion pony in the form of rb Tevin Coleman who is probably one of the best players no one ever talks about. And while the boilermakers don't seem to be the team that would stop him from having a 200 yard day, they may well be able to allow that and still win the game. Indianas defense has only occasionally played well this year and they can be had in multiple fashion. And you really have to look at Indiana stats and separate them from pre Sudfeld injury and post Sudfeld injury. Their qb play without him has been unbearably bad and that is why I am going with purdue .. because I feel this is a close game late and I just prefer Appleby to the Frosh for Indiana when push comes to shove. If it is a blowout, then Coleman just went wild and purdue failed to answer and I can see where that could happen. I sort of like the situation too ... purdue seems to be getting slightly better and Indiana is coming off their super bowl disappointment against TOSU after a disappointing year and all they have to look forward to is Purdue. Saw a stat where the boilers haven't lost back to back games in this rivalry since 1994 .. what the hell ... it aint perfect, it aint my brother .. but I will take 3 in what I think is a pure coin flip
 
Georgia Tech and Over -- This is mostly just a backing of the jackets and how they are playing offensively. I also have to wonder how disappointed Georgia is heading into this game. Every season goal has been smashed to pieces as of Friday afternoon in Missouri. The uga rush defense has been fairly suspect the last month or so and I see GT churning out some pts .. I am a little concerned that both teams running the ball so much will lead to a running clock and a difficult total to overcome. GT has scored 25 or more in every game this year and I don't see why they cant do that here as little brother. Would seem a good difference in motivation ...
 
Rice and under -- By my numbers and those of some sites I look at ... if you adjust for opponent, Rice is one of the slower paced teams in the country and latech is not all that far behind them. Two top 50 defenses and two offenses that are average ... seems like what you would want for most unders. Plenty of reason for both teams to show up, the travel is not as bad as most teams have had it when going to Joe Aillet Stadium. I do think latech could find some success throwing but as you know .. I think these types of meaningful games turn into grinders and I think this will as well. last team to punt wins and I couldn't turn down the points. Smells bad ... but going with it.
 
Thanks tee. BTW I did get the wrong Allen the second half. Kid was playing on one leg .. should have gone to the younger sibling. Took mizz 2h so it worked out ok.

had a writeup on the isu-vag game but lost it ...

shorter version

isu/wvag over -- Prefer Trickett plays not because I think he makes any more plays than Howard would but because this is largely a pace play and whenever backups are in the pace of play from playcalls getting in and from that point to getting snapped slows down. But we have two of the faster teams in cfb, isu defense is banged up to hell, White should have a field day matched up with Tribune. ISU has given up over 500 yards in six games already this year which is an amazing stat. No reason wvag doesn't do similar here. Richardson has been playing well and the isu offense has been much better the second half of the year. I think they make some plays on that side of the ball which will keep wvag in score mode all game. 42-27 type game.
 
South Carolina +7 -- This was a tough one. I hate the team chemistry on South Carolina right now, not a fan of some of the moves the gamecocks have made as far as ingame decisions, am not a fan of the gamecocks conditioning which has caused them to fade in games late, can't stand their secondary, like their linebackers in run defense only and don't trust their qb to avoid the big mistake at the wrong time. But Clemson is really struggling on the offensive side of the ball since Watson got banged up against the ville ... the 28 against ga state is an embarrassment when you shut them out on the other side of the ball. 17 against bc .... 16 against cuse ... 6 against Georgia tech .... that type of scoring production just makes it tough to not want to take south Carolina plus the points. btw if you don't think spurrier knows he is a td dog, think again. He lives for this game and beating Clemson and just don't see him getting humiliated. Team is not right ... they are missing the edge they have always had on defense but this is asking too much of Clemson. I just beg of Thompson not to make more than two stupid mistakes.
 
tee*dub said:
Illy/NW thoughts
Click to expand...

Funny you should ask as I just added the under with another side...


I like NW to win the game and Illinois to cover. Obviously both teams with motivation. I think nw struggles to score the football at times and they lost Seimian to the ACL, so the 7 points could really matter in this game. Normally on the qb switch in this spot I would back a team like Illinois but they are so consistently god awful on the road it makes it hard to pull the trigger on them. Would seem pace of play would drag in this game and you get a low scoring affair. illini 109th in total offense and it is worse on the road ... but they did play in four very hostile stadiums in those road games.
 
clowncar said:
Funny you should ask as I just added the under with another side...


I like NW to win the game and Illinois to cover. Obviously both teams with motivation. I think nw struggles to score the football at times and they lost Seimian to the ACL, so the 7 points could really matter in this game. Normally on the qb switch in this spot I would back a team like Illinois but they are so consistently god awful on the road it makes it hard to pull the trigger on them. Would seem pace of play would drag in this game and you get a low scoring affair. illini 109th in total offense and it is worse on the road ... but they did play in four very hostile stadiums in those road games.
Click to expand...

Ya, I really like Illy in this spot but ya their road splits are about as bad as they come in CFB. +7.5 widely available.. see one score game for sure and Illy ML gonna be on my card a bit also
 
Also added the Wolverines. Pressure free game for them and all the motivation in the world obviously. Say what you want about Michigan the kids have shown heart all year and the defense is playing great football. They are ninth in the nation in total defense, and over the last 6 games haven't given up more than 26. Tosu might hit in that 34-41 area in this game as their offense is just that good but even that is coverable by Michigan against an ohio state defense that has been vulnerable at times. Michigan will eat clock on offense if they can get a first down .. ..... big if .... This type of rivalry game is rarely an absolute destruction .... four scores is a lot to lay against that defense.
 
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