time to post my week 13 card so far

ksimpsc said:
Uab is a monster win?
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It was tongue in cheek. Whole f'n world was on UAB last week....not gonna lie it wasn't comfortable but I laid the 10 pts

But that's how little respect UF has right now, so, yeah, I guess UAB is a monster win
 
KJ said:
It was tongue in cheek. Whole f'n world was on UAB last week....not gonna lie it wasn't comfortable but I laid the 10 pts

But that's how little respect UF has right now, so, yeah, I guess UAB is a monster win
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the world was on them last week for pretty good reason leading up to that, evidence though that situational betting is not the most stable. UF looked like trash against SC and mizzou
 
Which made UF a great situational play....you know that's my shtick. And again, it wasn't a comfortable wager.

Let's not kid ourselves, just great to see VK post in time to lube up for bowl season
 
Florida
Date Pos Player Injury Status
11/21/17 OL Jawaan Taylor Shoulder is "?" Saturday vs. Florida State
11/21/17 UT Kadarius Toney Leg injured last game, is "?" Saturday vs. Florida State
11/19/17 DE Elijah Conliffe Ankle is "?" Saturday vs. Florida State
11/19/17 DB Garrett Stephens Knee is "?" Saturday vs. Florida State
11/19/17 DL Jachai Polite Shoulder is "?" Saturday vs. Florida State
11/19/17 QB Jake Allen Undisclosed is "?" Saturday vs. Florida State
11/19/17 QB Malik Zaire Knee is "?" Saturday vs. Florida State
11/13/17 OL T.J. McCoy Foot is out for season
11/06/17 OL Brett Heggie Knee is out for season
11/05/17 DB Nick Washington Shoulder is out indefinitely
10/30/17 RB Malik Davis Knee is out for season
10/16/17 DL Jordan Sherit Hip is out for season
10/03/17 WR Antonio Callaway Suspension out indefinitely
10/01/17 RB Jordan Scarlett Suspension out indefinitely
10/01/17 DL Jordan Smith Suspension out indefinitely
10/01/17 OL Kadeem Telfort Suspension out indefinitely
10/01/17 DL Keivonnis Davis Suspension out indefinitely
10/01/17 DL Richard Desir-Jones Suspension out indefinitely
10/01/17 WR Rick Wells Suspension out indefinitely
10/01/17 LB Ventrell Miller Suspension out indefinitely
09/30/17 QB Luke Del Rio Shoulder out for season
09/07/17 WR James Robinson Heart out indefinitely
09/07/17 QB Kyle Trask Foot out indefinitely
08/25/17 DB Marcell Harris Achilles out for season
 
The two offenses are so awful, you can make a decent case for taking the pts. I think FSU has the motivation edges.
 
adds
Buffalo 4.5
Uconn 6 -120 (b)
Utep 20.5
MTSU -10.5
ull -6

NIU/Cmich under 54
Wky/FIU under 55
Indiana/Purdue over 51
Uconn/cinci over 57
Uga/GT under 52
App st/Gast under 52
usm/marshall under 47.5
old dom/mtsu over 47.5
temple/tulsa over 59
nw/ill over 46
 
By three I assume you meant Franks, Del Rio and Zaire. If so, that is the order I would play them. Might find a wildcat option were I down to Zaire.
 
Don't even know what Toney can do yet but based on his use this year, I assume he cannot read defenses or pass accurately yet.
 
Looks like the right play, but God this rivalry is so crazy. You know about 1983, don't you? How would you like to win an under on that play?
 
I was 14 so i was all about cbb then. And nba. And whatever game i played on the blacktop that day
 
And the raiders ....

Sad story about the raiders and xmas this year. I always have a bunch of raider xmas ornaments, littke xmas raider scenes, a big santa in raider black and white santa suit ...a mini raider xmas tree that lights. I decorate the tree on thanksgiving. I left it in the box...all of it. I sighed. A part of me died. It was murdered by 2017 nfl players, coaches and owners. Sad.
 
vk said:
I dont remember that game off hand. What happened or video link if possible
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This is an awesome documentary:


If you want to skip to the kick, it's at 21:40, well more like 22:10, but watch it.

State trailing 24-23 with 24 seconds left. Time out, 27-yard FG attempt coming up.

The kick was true, but a gust of wind held the ball up as it approached, and it ended up spinning 40 feet above the crossbar before it was pushed back and landed a couple yards short.
 
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Sorry about that halftime recommendation in the egg bowl. Mississippi State dropped 2 interceptions that were easy TD's, and the Ole Miss QB missed a wide, wide open receiver for another bomb TD, and we got a turnover in the correct part of the field and we got some fourth down stops ... and it still flew over. That my friends, is misreading what would transpire. Very strange game, and I was certainly dead wrong, but it was enjoyable from an intensity standpoint. All those kids were trying hard .. well maybe not the DB on Brown ... but the other 21 each play.
 
THinking of playing the over in Toledo.
Do you think the early kick will affect the scoring?
 
s--k said:
What do you think about the LaTech game?
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I think the UTSA schedule is one of the bigger jokes in college football. They beat Marshall last time out 9-7. Their other 4 fbs wins were against teams with a combined 4-40 record. Their defense is playing really good football but again it is hard to give them credit. The offensive ranks of their fbs opponents were 130, 112, 108, 99, 97, 87, 60 (baylor best win probably?) 33 (lost), and 16 (lost). So they basically feasted on bad offense and when faced with decent offenses they lost. latech ranked 50th in offense and have decent offensive recency with back to back 500 yard games. Meanwhile, Latech defense ranked 79th but they had to play against good offenses .. miss st, wky, unt, fau ...

And UTSA is bowl eligible. Latech is 5-6 and needs this for bowl eligibility. Lest we believe latech is horrible, 3 of their 6 losses are by 1 point (South Carolina, UNT, and UAB). Meaning they could easily be 8-3 right now. Latech has not played particularly well at home this year but it is a decent HFA most years and it is senior day, of course.
 
vk said:
I think the UTSA schedule is one of the bigger jokes in college football. They beat Marshall last time out 9-7. Their other 4 fbs wins were against teams with a combined 4-40 record. Their defense is playing really good football but again it is hard to give them credit. The offensive ranks of their fbs opponents were 130, 112, 108, 99, 97, 87, 60 (baylor best win probably?) 33 (lost), and 16 (lost). So they basically feasted on bad offense and when faced with decent offenses they lost. latech ranked 50th in offense and have decent offensive recency with back to back 500 yard games. Meanwhile, Latech defense ranked 79th but they had to play against good offenses .. miss st, wky, unt, fau ...

And UTSA is bowl eligible. Latech is 5-6 and needs this for bowl eligibility. Lest we believe latech is horrible, 3 of their 6 losses are by 1 point (South Carolina, UNT, and UAB). Meaning they could easily be 8-3 right now. Latech has not played particularly well at home this year but it is a decent HFA most years and it is senior day, of course.
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Great points. GL this week. Happy holidays.
 
pressitup said:
THinking of playing the over in Toledo.
Do you think the early kick will affect the scoring?
Click to expand...

I don't think that kick time will be a major factor to how that game plays out. I think there is a small possibility of some cold wind though.
 
WoW ! Great to have you back. Aside f rom FCS, it's been a bad month for me and I have had very little time this week.
So fasten your coattails, I'm coming aboard except for any in-game and halftimes. GL:shake:
 
Thank you for my winning bets on Ohio U and So Florida.
Once again I did my usual comic routine on a total. When I went to bet on the NIU-CMU game, the o\u had dropped to 51. I went to my secondary book I seldom use and I had the princely sum of $3.62 cents in my account. I bet the over. The books website is very user unfriendly. I wound up inadvertently buying a point to U//50 at -124. Won $2.60.
GL the rest of the weekend
 
bull said:
Thank you for my winning bets on Ohio U and So Florida.
Once again I did my usual comic routine on a total. When I went to bet on the NIU-CMU game, the o\u had dropped to 51. I went to my secondary book I seldom use and I had the princely sum of $3.62 cents in my account. I bet the over. The books website is very user unfriendly. I wound up inadvertently buying a point to U//50 at -124. Won $2.60.
GL the rest of the weekend
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Ya that was an unfortunate total for me. There won't be too many games all weekend with less yards than that one. Just an odd second half. Buddy had niu and under ... 17-0 at half and he lost both without it going to overtime. Tough.

I was ready for the Buffalo choke too. But they found a way. Awful drop by Johnson in that game shortly after he had hurt his .. well .. well, after he had hurt his Johnson.

USF was probably the better team but the ST that we all worry about with Charlie Strong teams and which I mentioned either in this thread or the ml dog thread certainly did them in. Missed PAT, Missed FG, Opponent KO return for TD. That was my favorite bet of the week so glad to see it in the rearview mirror with a win.
 
Vk, thoughts on the UTEP game? Their season has been so up and down between a blowout from nmsu, only a one point loss to wku at home, to then getting shut out by soumiss. Got some tough games on the schedule but the 31-14 loss to rice then confused me again. Not too surprised by the scores against some of the better teams on the schedule.
 
ksimpsc said:
Vk, thoughts on the UTEP game? Their season has been so up and down between a blowout from nmsu, only a one point loss to wku at home, to then getting shut out by soumiss. Got some tough games on the schedule but the 31-14 loss to rice then confused me again. Not too surprised by the scores against some of the better teams on the schedule.
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This is my bet ,...

"So, the players still have something to prove. This victory will be like the Super Bowl. I'm sure victory in this game, our players will really need it and really want it and deserve it." - Mike Price

Against UAB who has nothing to play for.
 
vk said:
This is my bet ,...

"So, the players still have something to prove. This victory will be like the Super Bowl. I'm sure victory in this game, our players will really need it and really want it and deserve it." - Mike Price

Against UAB who has nothing to play for.
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Thanks for the response. Love seeing the motivation.
 
While the motivation factor is basically the bet, there is other food for thought...

UAB 147th ranked strength of schedule per sagarin (includes fcs schools for those not familiar)
UTEP 89th ranked strength of schedule per sagarin

In UABs six wins vs fbs opponents the following is their yardage differential ....

minus 53 yards against coastal carolina
plus 3 latech
plus 40 mtsu
plus 70 vs usm
minus 24 rice
minus 34 utsa

In their four loss vs fbs opponents the following is their yardage differential

minus 189 florida (I sort of throw this game out)
plus 127 ball state
minus 163 unt
minus 32 charlotte

I point this out for several reasons:
1. You are looking at a team who is laying three TDs but has only won one game by more than that margin 11 games into the year (1 fcs game thrown out). Obviously UTEP is beyond awful and is the main reason for the line but I will address that in point two.
2. UAB has not shown the ability to blow out the worst teams in fbs. Charlotte, Ball State and coastal carolina were all competitive with them and uab managed to lose two of them.
3. UAB backers are laying three TDs with a team that has outgained one opponent by over a hundred yards, and a team that has a negative yardage differential for the year against fbs opponents.

This is one of the worst 7 win football teams you will ever lay eyes on.

Moreover, UAB is 99th in total offense this year and 59th in scoring offense, which means they have gotten a bit lucky with their point output.

Obviously the huge elephant in the room is UTEP. They are horrid. The worst team in fbs this year, I am ashamed to say as an alumni. The miners have basically been outgained by a 2:1 ratio this season. If I put up the yardage differentials, they would all be ugly.

I believe, and I didn't look this up... so I could be wrong .. but I believe Mike Price was decent against the spread as an away dog.

If UTEP lays down they probably will get blown out again. I don't think they will though and that likely means a game where they are outained by 80-120 yards or so. You just need a few lucky bounces to make that a one score deficit or a win.

Key stat will probably be third down conversions

UAB 15th (haha)
UTEP 129th (par)

Opponent third down conversions
UAB 59th
UTEP 128th (par)

My goodness. I never thought I would see the day where UTEP academics exceeded their sports programs ..... who am I kidding, they still don't.

Not gonna sugar coat it ksimp. UTEP sucks and they could take it in the shorts today but UAB is not a team that anyone should want to take when they need them to win by four scores to cover. Good luck with that to those that do it as they have played awful teams and haven't really shown they can.

Come on Miners!
 
I had a few conference usa tilts this week. One thing with capping a bunch of CUSA games is that you get a true appreciation for how bad that conference is.
 
vk brings the heat old school style for the UTEP finale!

I'd have to look, but I believe that UTEP has played some close halves only to get blown out big in the second. I will see and post, but could be potential first half opportunity and from rough memory the UTEP D doesn't often fold from the get go the last several games.

I would imagine the UAB game vs Rice gives UAB backers some hope they can duplicate. Rice outgained them, I believe due to late drives, because UAB scored at will vs them.
 
I can post some of these recaps here. 3 of the last 4 games, I didn't do that LaTech game. But you can see that UTEP, while an awful team, isn't just getting blown out from the start of these games:

45-10 North Texas led just 14-7 HT with the UTEP TD being a D fumble return. NT was SOD at UTEP25 to go with their two long drives. NT had 241-80 first half yard edge. NT scored on all 5 of their second half possessions not including the game ender. UTEP managed a FG on their opening possession of the half, then didn’t cross midfield again until the end of the game being SOD at NT10. FD 27-15, TY 472-231 (6.4-3.6) for NT. NT was 62% 3rd down. Fine 23-35-213-4-0. Wilson 20-147-TD, added 7rec 58y. Greenlee 13-25-109-0-1, 39y rushing.. Torrez 3-7-22-0-0. Fields 16-45.
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30-3 Middle Tennessee D limited UTEP to 46 first half yards, but MT O wasn’t real consistent either, but led 17-0 HT. MT got a good punt ret then a penalty helping set up a 2p 24y TD drive. 24-0. In the 4th UTEP was SOD at their own 29 and MT “drove” 5p 29y for their final TD. MT FD 18-6 and 400-137 (6.1-2.5) TY for MTSU. Stockstill returned to start for the first time since week 2 and went 13-30-190-3-1. RBs Thomas 9-68-TD and Anderson 12-68. WR Lee 6-80-TD Metz 10-23-48-0-0 (sacked 3x). Fields 17-87. 137y UTEP gained were the fewest allow’d by MT this ssn.
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31-14 UTSA led 17-0, but UTEP made it 17-14 HT. UTSA got up by 10 late 3rd 24-14 and then added a 22y pick-six. One of UTEP’s TDs was a 40y drive setup off an INT ret, UTEP earlier threw an INT at the UTSA5 after a 57y drive. Not a good second half for Miners, as they only had 67y in the second half. 22-10 FD and 393-243 (5.5-4.4) TY for Roadrunners. Sturm 18-30-188-1-1. 3 UTSA RBs had 60-70y rushing. Greenlee 8-29-133-0-2.
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That is exactly what happened in the Rice game. UAB had 42 or something ridiculous like that at the half and Rice scored a couple of late TD's to make the blowout look a little less like a blow out
 
1H might present a good opportunity as I could see UAB being a bit hung over from the Florida beat down
 
s--k said:
I can post some of these recaps here. 3 of the last 4 games, I didn't do that LaTech game. But you can see that UTEP, while an awful team, isn't just getting blown out from the start of these games:
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that is kind of my hope with the offense showing some life last game. That defense is just getting worn down because the offense just cannot do anything. The starting 11 for UTEP is bad enough but beyond that the depth just isn't going to be there at this school, ever. If the offense can show some life, maybe that defense can hang on longer.

I also suppose that the first half angle isn't bad from a hanging of the head perspective either. UTEP has been anything but a backdoor team with a backdoor offense. A vast majority of their covers would most likely be in games they are covering at halftime. I doubt we see a tale of two halves scenario where UTEP plays bad first half but inspired second half. Of the four combinations, that is the least likely imo. UTEP down a FG is probably what I will be wanting at the half .. UAB can still sleepwalk with the halftime lead.
 
Something else, this is a longshot and all a winless bad team to win as a 3 TD dog vs a rebounding bowl eligible team, but when you look for all the angles you can, UAB would not have many seniors I don't suspect right? So the whole senior day angle doesn't come into play. Maybe there are 1 or 2 guys?
 
I was wrong, UAB does have some seniors

The Blazers will honor their 14 seniors who will go down as the most influential class in program history. Nine of the 14 seniors were members of the 2014 team and helped rebuild UAB football into what it is today.

The seniors being honored include: Wally Adams, Vernon Chatman, Tevin Crews, Derrick Gregory, Shaq Jones, Roderick McKinney, Bolton Patton, Jordan Petty, Stephen Pickren, Teko Powell, Chris Schleuger, Zach Sims, Darryl Waters and Darious Williams.
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