time to post my week 11 card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Haha love me some autocorrect
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Kansas - They just fired their coach, they never beat Kansas State, they have lost five of their last six games this season with the win being a 1 point victory. But if you look it over, Kansas is averaging 4.96 yards per play on offense and Kansas State is averaging 5.16 yards per play on offense. Kansas State is allowing an average of 6.06 yards per play and Kansas 6.12 yards per play defensively. Kansas State (per Sagarin) has played the 14th toughest schedule and Kansas the 49th toughest schedule. It doesn't appear either team is very likely to make a bowl but this game is bigger to kansas than KSU, it is a game they probably think they can win and they have beatdowns to Texas and OU on the horizon to conclude the year. While the coach is fired, he is still coaching the kids so limited distraction. Maximum effort and there doesn't appear to be a ton separating these teams. Kansas State is only scoring about 21 pts a game so far this year (Kansas 23.5 but easier sched). I don't see why they go way over that number and if they don't, you are asking the Kstate defense to be pretty perfect to lay that number. Looking over common opponents the results are relatively in the same ballpark too, sans Okstate. Moreover, the Kansas rush defense has been at least average and their secondary has been ball hawking with interceptions. Both QB's (different skill sets but similar levels of making the offense go) Thompson and Delton are a little banged up for kstate too. As they both stink, you have to think whoever is behind them are not very good to be behind them on the depth chart. There isn't anything to like about kstate as a big favorite unless you think they are entertaining a pipe dream of beating both Texas Tech and ISU after this game for bowl eligibility, and thus try hard.
Seems like a pretty good deal to me. The Jayhawks have to take advantage of this version of kstate as they have lost 9 in a row in the series.
Seems like a pretty good deal to me. The Jayhawks have to take advantage of this version of kstate as they have lost 9 in a row in the series.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I do think KSt will try hard, but so will KU. And like you allude to, this is the worst KSt team since 2015. That 2015 KSt team did beat KU 45-14 as 19.5 pt road fav, so that says something about where KU's program was at that year - probably the absolute worst. They are scoring just over 21 ppg, the lowest in a long time. On the flip side, while it isn't saying much, this is the best KU team in quite a while. Again, not saying much. KU's avg of 23.6 ppg on O is the best since 2009! And their D usually gives up enormous ppg figures, is just 28.9, again the best since 2009. KU was actually a 2pt fav over KSt in '09 and lost 10-17. Not for that reason, but this feels like a one score game this time.
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
I liked Kanas too. The shortest version of what i found is KSU is bad and people thinking otherwise is based on past years team and output. These are two teams that are relatively even outside of HC.
12 points felt good and if it hits 14 ill add.
12 points felt good and if it hits 14 ill add.
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
Justin Herbert NFL LOL
He'll fall down the board when people realize he isn't a competitive guy and would rather play catch with his brother.
He'll fall down the board when people realize he isn't a competitive guy and would rather play catch with his brother.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
That's my biggest concern with him transitioning to NFL. I've never been able to shake the comment that I heard Taggart make a couple years ago that Herbert used to be so shy that he didn't like to walk around outside the locker room with his shirt off (paraphrase). I don't think shirt-offedness is mutually exclusive with NFL success, but if Herbert stays around to play catch with his brother next year (as you alluded to), I think that will say a lot. He will be a top 10 pick this year as long as he finishes healthy and declares. So many thirsty teams and not near enough tall white guys with big arms to satiate their appetites.
Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
If you get time, could you suggest 4 or 5 more teams to put in a parlay (so, youre next best 4/5)? My buddy is flying to vegas tomorrow and I wanna drop a $20 bill on a parlay. Thanks in advance if ya get time!
Terrific write-up.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I am not much for parlays but in the first window, I bolded the sides I am most heavily invested in. I would tell him to make sure he gets on the Kansas train with the rest of us for Saturday because I think that is a really solid play and think ML is very much in play. Next stop, Winsville.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I will say this, .... this is the most confident I have been in a Texas Longhorn pick in a very long time. Despite following the program semi-closely as a fan, I have not been good the last seven years or so with picking sides in their games but I do feel pretty confident in this one.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I like Fresno. Now to be fair .. I like them from the eye test when compared to my eye test of Boise State. What is difficult is that Fresno State has played no one .. but with recent weeks scheduling leading into this one it also means they have probably had extra time to prepare for Boise.
While I think my numbers made Fresno a significant favorite, this is more about what I have actually seen.
Other than that, no interest in anything else tonight.
While I think my numbers made Fresno a significant favorite, this is more about what I have actually seen.
Other than that, no interest in anything else tonight.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I won't be doing a Fresno write up but I did sort of answer
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
not trying to cherrypick as i came here for your UT thoughts, but i think this is a really tough thing to rely upon when gambling
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
The numbers? That's what I have relied upon for over a decade. If I have to throw those out, then I have to quit as math analysis is my only true strength/advantage in football handicapping.
If you mean motivation, then of course, that is a tough one to rely on for any given game, or at least I have found it difficult.
Oh I saw the bolded. I think teams lose a lot in a row to the other team because they are usually a lot worse. So yes, it is difficult to use that as a reason in most cases but I think when you have an even team or better than the team that has dominated you, it can be used as a factor.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
this is a really good point. Also revenge for Boise I believe.
But given the Fresno schedule, I would be a little surprised that they would be looking past Boise to that game. But it could be a factor. It's a good point
Luckily the TT is 44.75
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
If Va Tech hits +4 I'm probably biting. You want to talk me off a ledge haha.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
So 45's a win/push?
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
Not sure how much they're worth, but it is fairly well understood his family is fine financially. He won't feel the same pressures that many other young athletes do. There is a lot that goes into it, but he is just never going to be Baker Mayfield in any sort of intangible way.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Just consulted two people and it would appear so
Get em this weekend VeganKyle, I do like at least one of your wagers in Ames
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I won't talk you off the ledge but the concern would be vt run stop.
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Yea that is what kept me off of the BC game originally. I've been toying with Va Tech TT instead but if it hits +4 I'll probably play it. Have a few others waiting on the right number for.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
SEC Defense!
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Another good week, as the power of Debbie Gibson lives on. Managed 10-5-1 on the bigger stuff which is nice and Ole Miss intentionally letting TAMU score was also nice. As I am a negative person, let me start with the disappointments.
1. One of the games that I saw absolutely zero of was the Georgia State at ULL game. As such, it was one of the few games where I just checked the scoreboard. My scoreboard had that 38-22 final. When I woke up this morning and was going through tickets and separating them for the book and going through box scores, I realized it was a push. So I feel like I lost a unit while I slept. That was the most disappointing.
2. Florida had first and ten from the 12 late. If they get stopped, they kick the covering FG and if they score a TD they cover but if they get a first down in the two yard window between the two and the goal line, they will take knees. They made the first down without scoring. This was especially disappointing as I had them in the GN contest so I lost both the bet and the contest pick.
3. Fresno State defense - Just didn't see that domination coming.
4. SMU Defense - Mustangs put up a 62 spot and couldn't cover against Uconn and gave up 40 second half pts? to uconn??? This was another game I saw very little of as it was on for a minute but they switched the game at the book but how in the hell could smu play that badly on defense??
5. Purdue :shocked2:
6. ECU - 94 plays, 68 pass attempts, and 18 points. when you play a side plus two scores to the over and they run 94 plays, you expect to cash both.
7. Wittingham - Kicking the FG at the end was a bad decision and it almost gave Oregon an opportunity they otherwise would not have gotten. It cost me the total by a half point.
8. Texas - This is more as a fan than anything but ... you played Okst spread and got ripped open, you played WVU spread and you got ripped open and then you get to play the Texas Tech spread with their back up and got ripped open. You blew a 21 pt fourth qtr lead. Were it not for turnovers, you lose to TT with their backup QB running the show. Make some damn adjustments. You play in a conference where everyone runs the spread offense. Figure it out. My goodness.
9. Auburn defensive line - You highly touted jerks just got your asses handed to you by the UGA oline. Oh and the Aubbie QB throwing it ten yards out of bounds on fourth down was nice. All I ever ask of the QB on those downs is to not take a sack, throw it beyond the sticks, and give the receiver a chance to make a play. The receiver was interfered with on the fourth down play but they picked it up because Stidham threw it to Grand Rapids instead of the playing surface.
10. Myself - Horses mentioned the lookahead factor for Fresno State against Boise State. I am not mad with anything regarding the Boise State game as I just really liked Fresno State at that number but I should have considered it more than I did. Fast forward I have a play on SDSU with the same lookahead against UNLV and I laid three full TDS. That one could have been avoided after watching Fresno come out completely flat.
1. One of the games that I saw absolutely zero of was the Georgia State at ULL game. As such, it was one of the few games where I just checked the scoreboard. My scoreboard had that 38-22 final. When I woke up this morning and was going through tickets and separating them for the book and going through box scores, I realized it was a push. So I feel like I lost a unit while I slept. That was the most disappointing.
2. Florida had first and ten from the 12 late. If they get stopped, they kick the covering FG and if they score a TD they cover but if they get a first down in the two yard window between the two and the goal line, they will take knees. They made the first down without scoring. This was especially disappointing as I had them in the GN contest so I lost both the bet and the contest pick.
3. Fresno State defense - Just didn't see that domination coming.
4. SMU Defense - Mustangs put up a 62 spot and couldn't cover against Uconn and gave up 40 second half pts? to uconn??? This was another game I saw very little of as it was on for a minute but they switched the game at the book but how in the hell could smu play that badly on defense??
5. Purdue :shocked2:
6. ECU - 94 plays, 68 pass attempts, and 18 points. when you play a side plus two scores to the over and they run 94 plays, you expect to cash both.
7. Wittingham - Kicking the FG at the end was a bad decision and it almost gave Oregon an opportunity they otherwise would not have gotten. It cost me the total by a half point.
8. Texas - This is more as a fan than anything but ... you played Okst spread and got ripped open, you played WVU spread and you got ripped open and then you get to play the Texas Tech spread with their back up and got ripped open. You blew a 21 pt fourth qtr lead. Were it not for turnovers, you lose to TT with their backup QB running the show. Make some damn adjustments. You play in a conference where everyone runs the spread offense. Figure it out. My goodness.
9. Auburn defensive line - You highly touted jerks just got your asses handed to you by the UGA oline. Oh and the Aubbie QB throwing it ten yards out of bounds on fourth down was nice. All I ever ask of the QB on those downs is to not take a sack, throw it beyond the sticks, and give the receiver a chance to make a play. The receiver was interfered with on the fourth down play but they picked it up because Stidham threw it to Grand Rapids instead of the playing surface.
10. Myself - Horses mentioned the lookahead factor for Fresno State against Boise State. I am not mad with anything regarding the Boise State game as I just really liked Fresno State at that number but I should have considered it more than I did. Fast forward I have a play on SDSU with the same lookahead against UNLV and I laid three full TDS. That one could have been avoided after watching Fresno come out completely flat.
bull
Coattailing Cheerleader
Thanks for forming the basis for another good day. You play early in the week; I play late. So I discover many line movements, most of them good ones for you and just the opposite for me. A bad move of a point or more means I drop the game unless you have BOLDED it. Even so I went 16-8 and I thank you once again. And happy Veterans Day to you, especially if, like me, you are a vet.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I am not a Veteran. My Father served in the Navy. Several uncles (since passed) fought in and survived WW2. I have a purple heart of one of them.
I thank you for your service and to all who have served. :usausausa:
