time to post my week 11 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Week One: 22-29 -9.90 units
Week two: 28-26 -0.6 units
Week three: 31-31 -3.1 units
Week four: 27-24 +0.6 units
Week five 38-33 +1.7 units
Week six 39-33 +2.7 units
Week seven 39-32 +3.8 units
Week eight 42-25 +14.5 units
Week nine 35-31 +0.9 units
Week ten 41-21 +17.9 units
Overall 342-285 +28.5 units

Bull is back to good health, I had the greatest sports betting day of my life (and I had some real nice ones tailing D$ and Burritos in cbb once upon a time), Debbie Gibson is showing no signs of letting up, and I am still handsome. Life is good. I think I got lucky on a few games .. USM/Marshall was obviously the wrong side that got lucky, USC had a fumble that was scooped and scored but they blew it dead and Oregon State ended up not scoring after given the ball on review and covering from there would have been near impossible, Wyoming threw a TD pass instead of taking knees (again they probably deserved the money anyway but still lucky), and of course USF had the under along with me so that was able to cash which was lucky. The only really unlucky loss for me was SDSU/UNM under (almost no yards, and kid scored rather than sliding - pretty much a counter to my Wyoming luckbox. I did have some well capped games go against me with MOH, Temple, and ECU all being good looks with bad results. UTEP, my alma mater, finally won. Severe misses on the Illini/Minny under, UTSA, Texasst/Gast under (shoot me if I ever bet a gast under again), Utah, Tennessee, OU and under (Unders are tough), and of course, the Terps to over which I will incorrectly blame on distractions.

On to this week,

Kent State at Buffalo (Pass)

Ohio at Miami Ohio (Pass)
Toledo at Northern Illinois (Pass)

Wake Forest at NCSU (Pass)

Ville at Cuse (Pass)
Fresno State at Boise State (Fresno State -2) 0-1

Tcu at West Virginia (TCU 13.5, under 56) 0-3
Wisconsin at Penn State (Wisconsin 9) 0-4
SMU at UConn (Smu -18) 0-5
Navy at UCF (Pass)
Terps at Indiana (Pass)
Illinois at Nebraska (Pass)
Tulsa at Memphis (Memphis -14) 1-5
BYU at Umass (BYU -13, over 56.5) 2-6
Kansas at Kansas State (Kansas 12) 3-6
Ohio State at Michigan State (Pass)
Vanderbilt at Missouri (Vanderbilt 14.5) 4-6
Ole Miss at Texas AM (Tamu -12) 5-6
South Carolina at Florida (Florida -6) 5-7
UNC at Duke (Pass)
Troy at Ga Southern (Pass)
UCLA at Arizona State (UCLA 12.5, Under 59) 6-7
Unt at Odu (Pass)
Charlotte at Marshall (under 45) 7-7
Liberty at UVA (Pass)
Bowling Green at Central Michigan (Under 52) 8-7
MTSU at Utep (Pass)
Purdue at Minny (Purdue -12.5) 8-8
Baylor at Iowa State (Baylor 14.5, over 51) 9-9
Washington State at Colorado (Washington State -4 -120) 10-9
UNM at AFA (Pass)
Miss St at Alabama (24.5 tiny) 11-9
VT at pittsburgh (Pass)
UK at Tennessee (Kentucky -4) 11-10
Michigan at Rutgers (Pass)
NW at Iowa (Pass)
Okie st at oklahoma
sjsu at Utah State (Utah State -31, over 63) 13-10
ECU at Tulane (ECU 14, over 55.5) 14-11
Wky at FAU (FAU -18.5) 15-11
Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina (Pass)
Ga State at ULL (ull -14, over 67) 15-12
ULM at S Bama (ULM -5, under 62) 17-12
Oregon at Utah (Under 56.5) 17-13
Auburn at UGA (Auburn 14.5, under 50) 18-14
Temple at Houston
FIU at UTSA (Pass)
USF at Cincinnati Pass)
Rice at LaTech (Pass)
Miami Fl at Ga Tech (GTECH -4) 19-14
Texas at Texas Tech (Texas -1) 20-14
USM at UAB (USM 11.5) 21-14
FSU at Notre Dame (Pass)
LSU at Arkansas (Pass)
Clemson at BC (Clemson -17) 22-14
Oregon State at Stanford
California at USC (Pass)
Colorado State at Nevada (Pass)
UNLV at SDSU (SDSU -21) 22-15
Week One: 22-29 -9.90 units
Week two: 28-26 -0.6 units
Week three: 31-31 -3.1 units
Week four: 27-24 +0.6 units
Week five 38-33 +1.7 units
Week six 39-33 +2.7 units
Week seven 39-32 +3.8 units
Week eight 42-25 +14.5 units
Week nine 35-31 +0.9 units
Week ten 41-21 +17.9 units'
Week 11 22 -15 +5.5 units
Overall 364-300 +34 units
 
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fresno st -2
smu -18
Memphis -14
byu -13
Vandy 14.5
Tamu -12
Florida -6
purdue -12.5
Washington state -4 -120
Kentucky -4
ecu 14
ulm -5
GTECH -4
Clemson -17

Also for full disclosure I have a bunch of weird bets on Utah and Oregon respectively already, which amounts to a small "side" opportunity for me (not the original intent) which I won't be posting.
 
And let me explain this to whoever is making these GT lines. Your power rating is off. It has been short a long time. It has been covered up by some misleading scores and a couple of horrific matchups for GT (Clemson and Duke). I don't mind continuing to cash these tickets but at some point you have to adjust for the domination that is occurring in their football games. Secondary is their weakness. Good luck exploiting that with those Miami Fl quarterbacks.
 
Kentucky is probably a bad bet but after watching the Vols this past Saturday, I just cannot unsee that and I have a hard time figuring out how they generate offense. I imagine they have a good week of practice and they have good history vs Kentucky but I just had to.
 
To me, to allude to what I semi noted yesterday... You are the champ. How is that? You managed this year to watch, in their entirety, the Tenn-Utep and Tenn- Charlotte games. That's dedication and obviously you like to punish yourself.
 
B.A.R. said:
To me, to allude to what I semi noted yesterday... You are the champ. How is that? You managed this year to watch, in their entirety, the Tenn-Utep and Tenn- Charlotte games. That's dedication and obviously you like to punish yourself.
Click to expand...

I watched both of those in entirety as well, but I had alcohol to help me get through them.
 
The line for wazzou looked a bit short...do you know the status of Shenault?

I guess there is the possibility that weird things can happen in that altitude.
 
Would you bite on Cal if it gets to 7?

My concern is that they might be a bit demoralized at this point.

The PAC is getting a bit tough to handicap as I think with the exception of oreg st, ucla, colorado...that any team could beat the other on any given saturday.
 
Hmm, as a situational guy Kentucky might be my biggest play against this season and couple that with the Tennessee no show on Saturday it's a Super Sitch

Why Kentucky? Think they sleep walk

And Cal is simple, bet on at home and against on the road...Wazzu didn't cover this week but Cal simply can't win on the road in conference, so must factor that
 
B.A.R. said:
To me, to allude to what I semi noted yesterday... You are the champ. How is that? You managed this year to watch, in their entirety, the Tenn-Utep and Tenn- Charlotte games. That's dedication and obviously you like to punish yourself.
Click to expand...

Well, I have the tendency to focus on the games that are not going as planned. If I have 8 games on the TV's at the book, and 5 are going well, and 3 aren't, I will tend to find the 1 of the 3 that I find most absurd and watch it. I then text my friends about the game as it gets worse and worse. I had one of the greatest days I will ever have but if you asked my capping buddies about what percentage of my texts were negative, it would not shine a pretty light on my ability to focus on the negative. It helps me to put the game behind me easier to complain about it a little so I don't mind but it has to suck to be on the receiving end of some of that negativity. Luckily they don't hold it against me too much (that I know of). During the Charlotte/Tennessee game .. texts would look something like this (not exact quotes but to give you a feel) .... "Vols can move it on Alabama but cannot get a first down against Charlotte" or "Vols have 14 yards rushing through 3 quarters. SEC! SEC! SEC!" or "Is charlotte just a better football team?" or "This is why I couldn't be an AD, I would have to fire my coach as soon as the game ends" or "Vols just don't have the athletes to compete with Charlotte" or "This is how you sell future tickets, play the worst you can possibly play at home to Charlotte"
 
AliShaheed said:
The line for wazzou looked a bit short...do you know the status of Shenault?

I guess there is the possibility that weird things can happen in that altitude.
Click to expand...

My guess is he is playing this week. He was close to playing last week. Whether 100% or not if he plays, who knows. They are a different offense depending on whether he is playing or not. But they give up 7.3 per pass attempt which makes the defensive match up bad. Also, Montez cares a lot about his completion percentage. It is quite apparent .... he eats sacks .. he runs oob for 4 yard losses instead of throwing it away because he doesn't want the incompletion and he looks very short a lot (some of that is scheme). Thing is ... Washington State finds ways to blitz you and I think it gives Montez issues and when he gets happy feet, he just quits looking midrange or deep. Colorado also needs a win somewhere for bowl eligibility. With that said, I think Washington State is the only piece of relevance the conference has left on the national scale. Washington is regressing, Utah lost Huntley for the year and is no longer relevant after the ASU loss, USC is struggling just to get bowling, Stanford is the worst version of Stanford we have seen since the beginning of the Harbaugh era, Oregon is an atrocity of their normal selves, Arizona is a bad football team (but at least improving) and UCLA is a bad football team (though at least improving in general). Once Washington State loses, the Pac12 won't be talked about in any form of positive light the rest of the year. This should negate some of the hfa for Colorado. Washington State has the by far better QB, the better coach, the better defense, probably has more to play for than Colorado and just overall appear the better team.
 
Early in the Buff game. It was 3rd down, they were inside 10 and Montes started scrambling, he was just about at line to gain and just about to get hit, so he slid, feet first. They did not get 1st down

That's all you need to know about this poser QB.
 
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RetroVK said:
Both games were an embarrassment.
Click to expand...

I'm used to it by now with this team. Do think Pruitt is headed in the right direction though, and look forward to next year with more of his guys (and hopefully somehow some extra practices for a bowl game). BOL this week, VK!
 
AliShaheed said:
Would you bite on Cal if it gets to 7?

My concern is that they might be a bit demoralized at this point.

The PAC is getting a bit tough to handicap as I think with the exception of oreg st, ucla, colorado...that any team could beat the other on any given saturday.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't be concerned about them being demoralized. They pulled off a big upset for the program a couple weeks ago, then almost upset a top ten team (sort of) last Saturday. My real concern for them is the spot with vs Washington (emotional close game win), at Washington State (emotional close game loss) then at USC with their big rivalry game the week after. Both teams at 5-4 but Cal does have two winnable games were they to lose to USC. Thing is ... when Helton took over the play calling they went back to the power run a lot more, particularly run right. That is his personality. This tends to eat clock and while it worked well against the Oregon State defense, I will pay to see it pay huge dividends against Cal. Without some big plays it is just hard to drive the field on that defense. So yes, I think 7 is worth a play for sure but not sure where I stand at current just yet. With the USC pace reduction (from Tee to Helton), and likely lack of proper adjustment, this total should be pretty darn low and that is where I am probably going to glance.
 
You are a stronger man than I. I doubt I would touch the Ags at that line.
No matter how bad that OM D is, unless Jimbo changes QB's the offense will be mediocre.
Unless, they could just run Mond and never let him throw.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Ecu & Vandy only dogs on the radar? Thoughts on Illinois? Any worries of a SMU letdown, or is UConn just that bad?
Click to expand...


I haven't completed all my lines yet. I doubt those are the only dogs on the radar when all is said and done.

Illinois is tough .. offense seems to be coming around but generally think Nebraska run defense is ok and their pass defense has issues. Not sure illinois can exploit that weakness and Nebraska should score just short of a billion on the Illini defense. Still, Illinois offense appears to be peaking. Pace should be good there so I would think lots of points come that way too. I dunno what to think just yet on that game so a little gunshy of saying too much until I actually handicap it fully.

Second person who has brought up the letdown potential for SMU for that game. I don't think they can have a letdown. After the Houston win, the team sits at 4-5 with 3 games remaining .. at uconn, vs memphis at Tulsa. They have to win two out of three of those to get bowl eligible. In addition, Houston has a hard remaining schedule and will likely lose again this year (perhaps this week), and they have already beaten Tulane. SMU has a chance at winning the division, along with bowl eligibility. Uconn has an issue .. they cannot stop anyone from scoring. Their defense is just horrible. Their offense, due to lack of talent, is very predictable and doesn't threaten teams vertically. The problem is that their style often leaves them having to convert too many third downs to compete with teams who are getting chunk plays against them. If SMU shows up, it is a destruction and as highlighted above, I don't think there should e a significant letdown.
 
pressitup said:
You are a stronger man than I. I doubt I would touch the Ags at that line.
No matter how bad that OM D is, unless Jimbo changes QB's the offense will be mediocre.
Unless, they could just run Mond and never let him throw.
Click to expand...

They have been about the most unfortunate team in the country this year. I think they unleash some frustrations on Ole Miss and the rebels offense has been different against high quality defense. I am comfortable with this,though their offense does make one fear the backdoor.
 
It is nice to see a semblance of a defense.
Watched a lot of the BDF this weekend(wife wanted to see TTech), it's a td every 4 plays.
If you're up 12 and the other team has the ball with 20s left, you very well could lose.
It's like the end of a basketball game. 20s left and you could wash the car and take a nap before the game's over.
 
Is Fresno just an auto bet at this point due to their current run? Boise has been playing better, still not sure they’ve played a complete game yet
 
RetroVK said:
And let me explain this to whoever is making these GT lines. Your power rating is off. It has been short a long time. It has been covered up by some misleading scores and a couple of horrific matchups for GT (Clemson and Duke). I don't mind continuing to cash these tickets but at some point you have to adjust for the domination that is occurring in their football games. Secondary is their weakness. Good luck exploiting that with those Miami Fl quarterbacks.
Click to expand...

Obviously we all trust your power ratings based on your success this season. The GT line has come down from 4 to 3 today (Westgate). I went further at that number. Could be an attempt by someone to give a head fake so they can come back big at a better number. Do you have any thoughts on the move?
 
Adds

BYU/Umass over 56.5
Kansas 12
TCU 13.5
TCU/WVU Under 56
UCLA 12.5
UCLA/ASU under 59
charlotte/Marshall under 45
Bowling Green/CMU under 52
Baylor 14.5
Baylor/Iowa State over 51
Miss State 24.5 (tiny)
Utah State -31
Utah State/SJSU Over 63
ECU/tulane over 55.5
FAU -18.5
ULL -14
ULL/GaSt over 67
ULM/Sbama under 62
Oregon/Utah Under 56.5
Auburn 14.5
Auburn/Uga under 50
Wisconsin 8
USM 11.5
Texas -1
SDSU -21 -115
 
Several disclaimers

1. Less time for capping this week.
2. Not done capping all games.
3. revisiting my cap of Oregon/Utah. Speculative Under bet based on first go through but no confidence in the cap cause it is way off market and I am judging injury value and not sure I did it right. Still took under cause even if I have to raise my handicap number, there is no way that can be a horrible bet.
4. Due to less level of detail in my handicapping this week, I won't be pushing the smaller variances. Still a ton of bets but it will be considerably lower than first 10 weeks. Unfortunate given how well I am handicapping right now but I simply don't have my normal time.
 
vegasvice said:
Obviously we all trust your power ratings based on your success this season. The GT line has come down from 4 to 3 today (Westgate). I went further at that number. Could be an attempt by someone to give a head fake so they can come back big at a better number. Do you have any thoughts on the move?
Click to expand...

I am not sure. There was a move against GT last week too before they raped UNC by a lot more than the scoreboard will show. They haven't gotten respect in but a few lines this year. So some folks are not believers. Miami kicked their ass last year (won by just one but dominated the boxscore), so there is that but this is a different team than last year and so is Miami (and in opposite directions). Both teams are a win away from Bowl eligibility but Miami FL remaining schedule likely easier than GT's. GT also seeking first conference home win. Team appears on a mission to me and appear to have good chemistry. Miami seems to lack some chemistry this season. A bit of a coaching mismatch too. I don't care what the moves are in these GT games anymore. They are just crushing the souls of their opponents right now.
 
Element1 said:
Is Fresno just an auto bet at this point due to their current run? Boise has been playing better, still not sure they’ve played a complete game yet
Click to expand...

Concern is competition level but I have been watching them and the execution play after play is excellent. Again, a coaching mismatch. Tough place to go and win though for sure.
 
Vs UVA and at UGA for GT, I believe. So if GT loses here then I am betting a small fortune on them against any reasonable line against UVA. They probably cannot defend UGA enough to win there even if UGA just wants to go through the motions and get out of the game healthy before SEC championship. This would be one of the best teams ever to not reach bowl eligibility. 4204 yards for vs 3264 yards against. I want to say they have outgained every opponent other than Clemson. I suppose they are due for a bad effort if you believe in such things but this just looks like a team that is good but hasn't wrapped up a single goal yet.
 
Any big or huge plays? GT your best bet? BYU -13 & over 56 parlay sound good? I assume if this goes over BYU will be in the 40 neighborhood.....

Thanks for the time and always responding. I love reading your posts!
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Any big or huge plays? GT your best bet? BYU -13 & over 56 parlay sound good? I assume if this goes over BYU will be in the 40 neighborhood.....

Thanks for the time and always responding. I love reading your posts!
Click to expand...
Gt
Auburn
Kansas

Byu should exceed 40 weather permitting
 
F1NkJ3I.jpg


Said I would post a picture when UTEP won! I actually just met some people from Albuquerque at the Anchor Bar who looked confused when I told them I lived in Ohio.

Winder than shit here.
Uc0NxYc
 
Hmm when you put a Miner in a barrel what could possibly go wrong?

More field storming pics in Ames por favor s--k
 
RetroVK said:
And let me explain this to whoever is making these GT lines. Your power rating is off. It has been short a long time. It has been covered up by some misleading scores and a couple of horrific matchups for GT (Clemson and Duke). I don't mind continuing to cash these tickets but at some point you have to adjust for the domination that is occurring in their football games. Secondary is their weakness. Good luck exploiting that with those Miami Fl quarterbacks.
Click to expand...

1000% agree
 
Ok ....

Would be interested in what you all line South Carolina vs Missouri on a neutral without taking the matchup itself into consideration. Just your basic power rating or value.

I ask because we have about the same line this week as last week with Florida hosting South Carolina.
This matchup is a lot better for Florida, so any change to whatever that line is in the south Carolina vs Missouri game would need to be adjusted in Floridas favor.
South Carolina comes in with basically a bowl game locked up (games vs chattanooga and akron to come) while Missouri came in needing to win 3 of 4 for bowl eligibility with home to vandy, at tennesse and vs arkansas still left on the schedule. Florida came in after losing their biggest rivalry game of the year and with a bowl secured. Now they come in off of two losses.

Sorry that line is short. Situation says Florida rolls in a big way here and they appear to me to match up soundly.
 
RetroVK said:
Ok ....

Would be interested in what you all line South Carolina vs Missouri on a neutral without taking the matchup itself into consideration. Just your basic power rating or value.

I ask because we have about the same line this week as last week with Florida hosting South Carolina.
This matchup is a lot better for Florida, so any change to whatever that line is in the south Carolina vs Missouri game would need to be adjusted in Floridas favor.
South Carolina comes in with basically a bowl game locked up (games vs chattanooga and akron to come) while Missouri came in needing to win 3 of 4 for bowl eligibility with home to vandy, at tennesse and vs arkansas still left on the schedule. Florida came in after losing their biggest rivalry game of the year and with a bowl secured. Now they come in off of two losses.

Sorry that line is short. Situation says Florida rolls in a big way here and they appear to me to match up soundly.
Click to expand...
Ive been thinking of ML or teasing Florida down actually. They match up well to your point.

Im terrible at betting for/against South Carolina which is why im not certain to lay the 7 but originally I was leaning that way
 
rambler882 said:
Ive been thinking of ML or teasing Florida down actually. They match up well to your point.

Im terrible at betting for/against South Carolina which is why im not certain to lay the 7 but originally I was leaning that way
Click to expand...
I ended up removing from card bc of reports of a broken locker room.
 
Last edited:
rambler882 said:
I ended up removing from card bc of reports of a broken locker room.
Click to expand...

Franks went ninja on everyone?

I don't see much fire to that smoke from the "fight" after the loss last week, personally but would be interested in the article(s) that you read that make you give it a lot of credence (or was it the fanboards?).
 
RetroVK said:
Franks went ninja on everyone?

I don't see much fire to that smoke from the "fight" after the loss last week, personally but would be interested in the article(s) that you read that make you give it a lot of credence (or was it the fanboards?).
Click to expand...
Yea just articles on the fight. You could be right and perhaps are, I did not dig too much into it. Since my cards tend to be over sized I try to narrow down as much as possible.

My original analysis had me put Florida on my card, read about the fight, decided to remove it.
 
Is Florida going to play 3 QBs? Almost like they are experimenting for next year, which from a coaching perspective there is nothing wrong with that, but the kids won't like that mentality if they sense that is what is happening. When were those Mullen's quotes about kicking people's ass in shit, was that immediately post game I assume or was it at this week's presser? I guess I could find those answers, but sounds like one of you might know.
 
I mean, I kind of like that, if my coach is talking about wanting to kick somebody's ass no matter what it is you're competing in. Sure that is said all the time behind closed doors, with him saying it publicly tells me he is really trying to fire up the troops.
 
It's just a great spot for them in my eyes no matter how you slice it. Whether they actually show up or not, who knows.
 
For the what have we learned thread ..

Toledo QB Pieters has no ability to put touch on his passes.
 
I still love the idea that NYG will likely end up with Herbert and set them back another half decade
 
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