Time to post my week 10 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Went a very respectable 6-3 last week and moved within a unit of even for the year. It has definitely been a struggle so far but I hope my hard work pays off in the end. One thing that I am very proud of to date is that I have not altered my betting practices just because I am having a down year. I am a 1 unit player and have remained so through out my year. I am a firm believer in the 1 unit system but realize that there are folks who make good money varying their units. I really do not want to debate the merits of either system in this thread because it is not the point that I am trying to make. My point is that I am very satisfied with my discipline. I handicap every single college football game to the fullest of my abilities and create my own line for the game. If the game qualifies for a play , then I play it. If it does not, then I do not make the bet. For the borderline games ( my strong leans and talk me off leans) I am steadfast in examining the game that much more through out the week. Sometimes, I find something worth a point one way or the other to make me play it or eliminate it. In the case where I find nothing new, I do not play it. I have not miraculously found a play later in the day when I am behind and need a break even game. If it wasn't worth a bet before. why is it now ?? enough slapping myself on the back and lets look back at last weeks games and let you know what i am looking at this week.

I had 6 wins last week. under bc/vatech--- clearly the right side of that one but what made me especially happy was that it was a weather angle and i bet it early knowing the line would drop. it was a hard earned winning investment. under utep/houston -- this game went pretty close to how I expected it to go, other than an incredible third down conversion rate through the heart of the game. Had to sweat out a possibility of an overtime moose but that is generally the case with an under. Georgia-- I was very pleased with how this game played out as they won outright and halfway convincingly. very entertaining game to watch. It was a little bit more offensive than I expected but all in all went the way I thought it would as florida had to pass more due to tebow injury. Again, the hard work paid off in this one. Wisconsin -- Not much to say here as they put an ass whooping on in this one. Did benefit from turnovers in this one ( finally !) but while it made the blow out a slightly deceiving score ... the cover looked good from start to finish. Oregon State-- pretty routine win, though some fourth quarter turnovers aided me in assuring the win. Stanford struggled to pick up anything on the ground. What an incredible under the radar defense this beaver team has. IOWA -- this game marked my first major comeback in a second half THE ENTIRE SEASON. MSU controlled the hawkeyes on both LOS in the first half and built a 14 pt lead that could really have been more. In the second half, Iowa reversed that and dominated msu for the entirety of the half. Iowa had atleast 6 different gamewinning ( as far as the spread was concerned ) plays in the fourth quarter that they failed on ( or msu succeeded on depending on how you want to look at it), and eventually allowed a long pass at the end and a field goal. Iowa prevailed in ot. Either team could have won this game , so I still feel that I had the right side with the points but I also feel a bit lucky as I really didn't have much reason to believe that Iowa would come out and dominate in the second half after getting ass whooped in the first. Iowa was probably my most fundamentally sound bet of the season. I am not a believer in their football team this year but the handicapping of the game has to be objective.

now for the losers last week. UNDER latech/utahstate--I lost this game by a half point as it fell 52 and i was going under 51.5. what a shame, but this shows the value of getting the best available line that you can. In all honesty, after watching this game ( and i saw every play ) i would not play this bet again. latech ran a lot of no huddle in the game which suprised me a little bit. There were missed opportunites for points on several occasions including a goal line stand. For thsoe wondering. UTAH STATE cannot tackle. It is really hard to watch. Illinois-- I did not see this game but lost it as I took a knee at the ball st 3 yardline and allowed a defensive score on an int return for ball st. Illinois, strangely attempted to throw a lot in the first half before riding mendenhall to the bank in the second. I heard from a friend that near the end of the game , down 11 on the illini's final drive that ball st did not use a timeout. If this is accurate, this truly was a bad beat. The yardage differential in this game does not call for a 14 point win though. OLEMISS/AUB under played this over 44 and it got steamed all the way to over 47 so i felt good about my value going into it but this thing never even came close to having a shot. Really the only game of the nine that I feel i was really really wrong about. long winded recap. lets look at week 10. As always, this thread is to help me make better bets and to help you make better bets, so please feel free to post your thoughts on any games this week, whether they are in agreement with me or not.

Locked in
ULM +4.5
Washington -3
TCU -4
texasam/oklahoma under 57.5
smu/houston under 69
TEASER 300 to win 300 rutgers +8 with LSU -1
Strong Leans
Indiana -6.5 eliminated halloween
Florida -16.5 eliminated oct 30
Penn State -7 eliminated oct 30
Michigan -4 eliminated nov 2
oregon state +15 eliminated halloween
Wisconsin +16 eliminated halloween
rutgers +2.5 eliminated halloween willbe on teaser
Fresno st -20.5 eliminated halloween

Talk me offs
Oregon -7 eliminated halloween
LSU -8 eliminated oct 30 will be on teaser
TAMU + 20.5 eliminated oct 30
FSU +6.5 eliminated oct 30
ucf -14 added to talkme offs nov 1
 
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Illinois-- I did not see this game but lost it as I took a knee at the ball st 3 yardline and allowed a defensive score on an int return for ball st. Illinois, strangely attempted to throw a lot in the first half before riding mendenhall to the bank in the second. I heard from a friend that near the end of the game , down 11 on the illini's final drive that ball st did not use a timeout. If this is accurate, this truly was a bad beat. The yardage differential in this game does not call for a 14 point win though.
Click to expand...

This game was 21-17 Illy early 4th and Testicle Tech was driving...in redzone..I missed what happened next but they did not score..fwiw


Nice week last week. I like that you review each play and learn from it. Your a strong analysist of college football and when this season is donw you will be in the positive..no doubt. Been a kooky-ass year but in the end I think everything will be fine.

I will comment on some of the plays/leans in a few.
 
BAR - they missed a field goal on that drive. one of two missed field goals in the game by ballstate. I guess i should be more clear when using a phrase like bad beat. I meant only in regard to the way the game ended. When illinois started their last drive there was over 10 minutes left in the game and they ran the clock out !!! Still they only out first downed them by 3 and outgained them by a little over a hundred or so if I remember right. Lost the turnover battle 1-3 with the running team vs the pasing team, which you would not expect ( even with juice ) but I guess the two missed field goals and the int return for td kindof wash out. Bad beat might have been harsh terminology. If they had given it to mendenhall all game this thing would have been ugly though. zook factor that pags always talks about. look foreard to your thoughts , and grats again on the ohio state game. You had that game pegged perfectly.
 
vegaskyle said:
One thing that I am very proud of to date is that I have not altered my betting practices just because I am having a down year. I am a 1 unit player and have remained so through out my year. I am a firm believer in the 1 unit system but realize that there are folks who make good money varying their units. I really do not want to debate the merits of either system in this thread because it is not the point that I am trying to make.
Click to expand...

:cheers:

Just hang in there VK...
 
In terms of LSU, they are the better team, but Saban really wants this game and remember if Alabama wins this, they have a virtual two game lead in the SEC West. I would not want to give more than a TD in the sec, especially on the road.
 
VegasKyle - Nice week last week. No opinions yet on any you have played, so I can't really comment right now. Hope you have a profitable weekend again. :shake:
 
A man becomes a philosopher or perishes.--A Scottish Proverb

I think this is an apt description of your approach to handicapping. You have come up with a tried and true system of handicapping and you'd be foolish to get away from it. Otherwise, you'd just be throwing darts. Nice work this weekend.

By the way, I'm leaning:

KSU -14
Oregon State +15
CSU +21.5
 
Had a pretty good week myself, have alot of work to do this week as there are about 14 games I like Saturday and I have already narrowed that down from about 20!

GL bro, like the TCU play and most of the leans...do not like FSU at all.

Peace.
 
By the way. Ball State had two timeouts left per ESPN.

Here are the plays Illinois ran from the plus 12 with two minutes to play:

<TABLE class=tablehead id=playTable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at BALL 12</TD><TD>Rashard Mendenhall rush up the middle for 7 yards to the BalSt 5, tackled by Alex Knipp.</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 3 at BALL 5</TD><TD>Rashard Mendenhall rush up the middle for no gain to the BalSt 5, tackled by Trey Buice.</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 3 at BALL 5</TD><TD>Rashard Mendenhall rush for 2 yards to the BalSt 3, tackled by Brandon Crawford.</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD colSpan=2> </TD><TD>End of 4th Quarter</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Notice that none of the remaining two timeouts were called. Nice give up job by the coach. If he can somehow hold them to 3 down there, there's still time for two scores. Guess he missed the Boston College game. Oh, and a 3 gets us the cover.
 
How can you bet on Wash? I know they should win but haven't they mailed in the season...Losing 6 in a row plus not even close to covering a spread during that stretch...Shead me some light
Good Luck VK
 
Some quick thoughts on Wshington and why I like it as a play this week.

- Washington is getting SEVERE class relief in this one. Washington has been forced to play what I think has been the toughest schedule in the country to date.

-They played boise state when bosie was ranked 22 in country... now they are 22 in bcs

-They played ohio state when they were ranked 10 in the country .. now they are number 1

-They played arizona state when they were 14 in the country ...now they are bcs number 4

-They played oregon when they were 10 in the country... now they are bcs 5

-They played USC when they were 1 in the country .... now they are number 19 bcs.

-That makes 4 games vs teams that were ranked in the top five at some point and 2 of which were ranked number 1. That is a tough schedule my friends.

-They lost all of the games vs ranked opponents except for boise st. .... but they competed in all of them before eventually getting worn down in the second halves.

After 3 qtrs they were tied with oregon at 31
At halftime they led arizona state 17-13
At halftime they trailed usc by 7
At halftime they led ohio state 7 - 3

Now , these teams all wore down washington in the second half ..... because they all have incredible running attacks.

Oregon ranks 4
ohio state ranks 24
usc ranks 26
asu ranks 39
and two of their other opponents also have above average rushing attacks.... boise st ranks at 14 and ucla at 43.

It is no wonder , given these opponents that washington has struggled vs the run this year , which has led to most of their demise through the season so far.

Stanford rush attack ranks #105 and they are currently down to their third string running back.

Washingtons defense has faced similarly ranked rush offenses only twice this year when they played syracuse ranked 113 and arizona ranked 112.

they gave up just 8 yards on the ground to syracuse and just 25 on the ground to arizona.

I have little doubt that locker and company can put up major points vs the stanford defense ... they have scored well in almost every game that they have played. The question is can stanford keep up. I say no because they cannot run the ball , hell they were held to negative yards rushing last week at oregon state,marking the second time this year that they were held to negative yards rushing this season. Stanford rates to be the team that gets worn down in this game.

This is also a revenge game from stanfords only win a year ago. In that game , washington had been decimated by injuries and were forced to start their third string qb who failed to get the huskies in the end zone but did succeed in throwin an int for a td for the TREE. It was a humiliating defeat and i think that the huskies come to play in this one.

The huskies also dominated the only "lesser" team they have faced all year when they went into the carrier dome and whipped the pants off the orange 42-12

Stanford has only played against one mobile qb all year and they were absolutely torched by him. they simply don't have the athletes to match up in that capacity.

I like this spot for washington and expect them to win in fairly convincing fashion and not letting up due to their recent second half history.

hope that sheds some light on what i am thinking for this one , woody and anyone else who questions laying points with an away favorite that has lost 6 consecutive games
 
GL this week VK - like the TCU play.

Congrats on the 6-3 week. Curious as to why you wouldn't have played the USU/LT Under again, as I think I would have put more down on it if you asked me after the game.
 
Dmoney -- thanks bud.

I would not bet it again because I think it was basically a coin flip and i want better value than that behind my bets. there was a goalline stand in that game , a blocked field goal , a missed field goal. I absolutely did not expect latech to be running a hurry up style offense ... which they continued even late into the third quarter with a 17 point lead. Game could easily have gone over 60. Now utah state scored on a blown coverage bomb and 21 points were scored in the last two thirds of the fourth quarter , so i can see where you are ocming from there. I just want better value. If i bet it again , it would not be the worst bet i make all year .... but hopefully there is better value than that to be had. the utah state tackling was something to behold too. arm tackles missed left and right. defense looked like a beaten team that is on verge of flat out quitting. I almost hope that is the case because if that was a good effort from them , then they are simply pathetic.... and i want the aggies to win games !!!
 
Definitely valid points - 10-13 points were probably left on the board in that game. My argument stems from the fact that this game was 24-7 with about 8:00 to go. Also, I feel that Utah St.'s points came from a blown coverage (like you said) and garbage TDs.
 
I like to respond to each person who takes the time to post in my thread and contribute to making it better. so will try to respond to those i have not done so for yet.

Kobe -- I think you make valid points. I am in no hurry to lay over a td in the SEC vs a decent opponent on the road. This match up is a horrid one though for Bama. They will not be able to run and lsu can get pressure with their front four making parker wilson vulnerable to interceptions. on the opposite side of the ball , bama has struggled some vs the run and lsu should be pounding them all day. i think if the line dips below 7 ,,,,, i may have to hit it but at 7.5 it is very unlikely at this point to make my final card. might see them in my first teaser post of the year.

Huntdog -- LETS MAKE SOME MONEY !!!! :cheers:

Ramble -- keep your excellent run going this week. Also , enjoy collaborating with you on how some of these games will play out. what you told me in our conversation about ucf played out to a T , wish i had bet it.

Texasfight -- Thanks for the proverb. As far as the games you mentioned , oregon state intrigues me the most. They are just dominating against the run and Iam not sure that USC can throw with enough success to cover a number tht big,,,,, they are banged up too ,,,, and they are now coming off a loss that eliminates them from title contention. they had high hopes entering the season. May look towards the under in this game as is see oregon state also struggling to score. Bernard went out with a shoulder issue last week vs stanford and the offense did not produce as much without him in the game. Would feel much better about putting my down on osu here if i knew he was playing.

As far as the colorado state game ... on paper csu plus the points seems appropriate ... but it looks like they may have quit. byu has beaten them by double digits the last three years and is playing decent football. Interested in your thoughts on this one.

Kansas State-- Just not a fan of needing to win by three scores on the road, even if it is against iowa state. I know that you are a big 12 expert so any insight as to how they woodshed iowa state would be welcomed. They , unlike csu , don't appear to have quit yet ... though k state certainly could crush them when they have iowa states full attention. give me the match up info that points to them covering here.

uab -- i will not back this team with my money on a line as low as 11. nope , not gonna do it. i dont see value on the southern miss side either but uab may very well be the worst d1 school in cfb right now.

steed -- gl to you as well sir !

mags -- glad to hear you are with me on tcu. i love this game and will be posting in a day or two why i love it so much. As far as fsu ..... this looks to be another low scoring game to me .... 6.5 is a lot of points in those types of acc games. i know for sure , that i would never play BC at that number , so while i am not a huge fan of the fsu side ... it needs more consideration. it is now week 10 and a talk me off lean has yet to make my final card. i have to find more compelling new information to make me play one of these as they are further from betting parameters than strong leans. As of this moment i have not found any new information to support a fsu play, but i have also been spending slightly more time examining the strong leans than i have the talk me offs to this point. gl this week as always.

woody -- i think i give atleast some of my viewpoints on why i like washington in a previous post ... i think the consecutive losses and stanfords recent success ( however decieving it is in the box scores ) has created great line value for the huskies here.
 
Definitely valid points - 10-13 points were probably left on the board in that game. My argument stems from the fact that this game was 24-7 with about 8:00 to go. Also, I feel that Utah St.'s points came from a blown coverage (like you said) and garbage TDs.

I agree with every statement in your post.
 
Vegas Very interested in speaking with you about how you think the FSU/BC game is going to play out. I know many people think BC is a fraud, but FSU seems to be winning on borrowed time and for some reason I don't see them within a TD of BC. Can they play the spoiler? I don't see it. :shake:
 
Since the start of the 2003 season , fsu has lost by double digits only 4 times. They don't get blown out a lot. In the last two years, they held Boston college to 17 points in 2005 and 24 points last year. Since halftime of the season opener at clemson , FSU has outplayed every opponent they have faced save wake forest. They have a lot of speed on defense and BC seemed to struggle blocking the speed players of VATECH. I expect a low scoring game , and I do expect Boston College to get the win .... but 6.5 - 7 seems like a lot of points in a game like this one to me. I do not believe they are a fraud. Though they are far from the number 2 team in the nation. they are a solid club , well coached , fundamentally sound , take care of the football , tackle well .... but they lack explosive playmakers on both sides of the ball. I am not preaching a play on FSU yet ... just have a tiny lean that way so far.
 
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kyle,

have really enjoyed reading your stuff this year...keep up the good capping...by the way, Kevin Robinson is the man...
 
pags - Too bad espn has not noticed Robinson yet ..... if you were to use the Reggie Bush model of including return yards ( a joke as we all know ), he is accounting for over 200 yards a game !!! heisman ! heisman ! Unfortunately for robinson , not only is he correctly not in the heisman discussion .... he hasn't even been given a house yet.
 
ok, was able to eliminate a few games today. From my strong leans list , penn state and florida are not going to make the card this week. From my talk me offs lsu , TAMU and fsu also will fail to make my card. look for lsu to be part of a teaser bet for me this week.
 
I like where your head's at with the LSU teaser bet, but I don't think you should've dropped FSU just yet...I'm really giving them a hard look.
 
VK I too am going to be betting LSU in a teaser this week: They won't lose and I will either bet them with UCF -6.5 or BC +.5. :shake:
 
Great week last week VK, now onto WK10.

You got Wash locked in, I agree and I will be on them although I might chug some juice on the ML.

As Linde mentioned, LSU in a teaser would fit nice.

Fresno is a game I am interested in. I always look for a chance to fade a bad team on the road (Ut St) but Fresno is a little skitzo. Its a good thing UtST can't run the ball because Fresno can't defend it for shit. On the otherside of things, Ut St can't stop the run for shit and Fresno is putting up 200+ game on the ground. With a large spread like this Fresno has to be pumping out points but they really haven't been throwing up some big numbers. I don't think Utah St will get past 13 though and so Fresno has to get 34+ in this one, its def doable. I leaned to Fresno in this game but was maybe looking for a -17 line. I had these jerkoffs last yr when they outright lost as 25point fav's so you can understand why I am a bit hesitant here.



Maybe I missed it but you leaning any which way on Thursday?

I still can't figure out the Wisky game for the life of me. I just "feel" like its too many points.
 
ETG - yes lsu will be involved in a teaser for me this week. should be added by tomorrow evening. At this point Rutgers is the likely candidate to be joining them. I eliminated Fresno st as a possible play this week. They should have no problem running it down the aggies throat. As I mentioned earlier in the thread ... utah state simply cannot tackle. Just the same , a three td spread is not something I am willing to lay very often. I believe I did it only once this year, though it was a winner. Not sure I trust Fresno st in a sandwich spot to cover such a number. Aggie game falls in between boise st and hawaii. If the bulldogs came to play then they should cover, but it doesn't cut the mustard for me this week. I have just a small, itsy bitsy lean towards virginia tech on thursday and will not be playing the game. Beamer looked a lot like Gailey last week but make no mistake, there is a wide disparity at the coaching slot in this one. Either team could win in my mind. Big difference between 2.5 and 3 point spreads though so if it goes to a 3 I think you have to give vatech that much more consideration. Sometimes the linesmakers make a really good line and that is what it looks like to me here. On paper, Wisconsin plus the points seems like the play. Their defense is starting to look more and more like the one from last year and not the one from the start of this year. Just trying to figure out if I want to get in Tressels way. He is the best coach in cfb. period. TOSU is just a covering machine. Still, the badgers are capable of putting up 14 -17 points in this game and that basically means the ohio state will need to hit 30 or more to cover. Not the most explosive offense for that to happen. i have a strong lean to wiscy and may end up playing it.

mrgoode - I saw them show up in your trend angles thread. Nice to have a trend angle to go along with my match up analysis.

ramble - gl with your teaser. Mine will likely include rutgers.

Timh - gl turtleman !! :cheers:

Lindetrain - I always keep an open mind, so while eliminated right now, FSU could always reappear in the face of new evidence. Convince me after you convince yourself . hehe. What you think of a rutgers/lsu teaser ?

AZZIE !!!:tiphat:

pags - thanks for the compliment. only wish my thoughts were more profitable.
 
I'd hate to waste Rutgers in a teaser as I think they're good enough as it is in a straight bet, but yeah if you aren't gonna bet RU straight, that looks awesome.
 
Kyle, I need your thoughts on TCU. I really feel NM is lucky to be 6-2 and this is a make or break spot for the Frogs. I need a little bit more to push me into playing it.
 
washington

Not so fast, my friend.
Are you looking at only one side of this game ?
I know you can't connect dots like a beat b and b beat c therfore a must beat c , BUT
I see Stanford beating both USC and Arizona ( away) and Washington losing to USC and Arizona ( home ) The rest of their schedules have some common oponents with common results.
I see Stanford at home in this game getting points.
I see Harbaugh vs Willingham
I see a different conclusion.
GL. I enjoy your posts , here and elsewhere.:cheers:
 
Bull - I don't think you can conclude that stanford played better against usc and arizona than washington did. Sure Stanford beat the wildcats and the trojans and the huskies lost to them both. But the final scores of those games don't really tell the whole story. Both stanford and washington were outgained by usc by over two hundred yards. Stanford won by a point , washington lost by 3 ... stanford was plus 4 in turnovers in that game, washington plus 1.

Against Arizona, stanford was outgained by 91 yards and washington outgained the wildcats by 37. Arizona led stanford most of the game. Arizona trailed washington for most of the game. Stanford had a comeback win and washington allowed a comeback for the loss.

Stanford won each of those two games by a single point. USC and Arizona have no chance of looking past washington. They may look past stanford.

Stanford loses by an average of 18 pts per game in conference.
washington loses by an average of 13.6 pts per game in conference.

i think it is too early to be giving Harbaugh coaching nods over willingham at this point, and the game itself may be more important to willingham than harbaugh at this point.

I don't see stanford being able to exploit washingtons suspect rush defense with a poor rushing attack, and a banged up rb crew.
I think revenge works in favor of washington here.
I don't think stanford can defend a mobile qb.
Will have to agree to disagree. Being opposite of you isn't on my wish list.

honez -- in the end it mainly came down to not trusting the aggies to score on the road ( i played the under in this one ). They could not move the ball at all on national tv at miami fl ( the most comparable defense to the sooners ), they managed just 7 in lubbock vs tech, and while they scored big on nebraska , well , who hasn't. You can also point to several home games the aggies should have lost ... fresno and okie state. The coach is pretty much a lame duck at this point and ironically he made comments during the offseason about oklahomas off the field troubles, which stoops responded to. Still think that is a large number to be laying in conference against a team that eats a lot of clock with their style of offense but ... not quite good enough for me to bet this week. In addition, oklahoma is coming off the bye which should help them to prepare for the option like attack of tamu.

lindetrain - doubt i bet rutgers straight up , especially as the line seems to be heading the opposite way and i hate getting the worst of it. i think ill tease them up over the seven and make uconn beat them by two scores to beat me. Refs will have to make one extra bad call for uconn than their normal game to cover that.

jpicks- promise. thoughts on tcu incoming soon
 
Well, what a great thread. Excellent discussion since last time I got to post in it.
 
Ok folks, some thoughts on tcu hosting new mexico.

-I actually had this game circled in the preseason as a game that i might be interested in playing because of the spot. Unfortunately some of my assumptions were a little off at that time but let me run through what i was thinking back then ... and why i like it even more now. I felt it was highly likely that TCU would have been heading into the oct 18 match up at home to utah with just one loss ( texas). I really liked the way utah matched up with tcu if Johnson was on the field for the utes, and felt that they would give tcu a real run for their money and possibly beat them outright on a thursday. Either way, it would be an angry football team off of a bye to host new mexico. New mexico i felt would be coming off a crushing of air force ( ok i was a bit off , ithought air force would be much worse than they turned out to be ) on a thursday night tv game. Off of that showing and tcu off what i thought would be their worst showing since texas (ok i had tcu a bit overrated too ... so i was wrong about a few things in the preseason )... i thought there would be line value in tcu on homecoming.

- lets look at how this spot looks now. TCU is coming off a home loss to utah and is coming off a bye coming into this game. new mexico is coming off a home win over air force. tcu is 4-4 , new mexico is 6-2. The bye week here helps tcu immensely as they have been banged up all year and are just now finally getting healthy. This will really be the first time all year that tcu plays with both their best offensive player and best defensive player at full health in the same game. This has now become a circle the wagons game for the horned frogs. Coach patterson has made comments since the utah game that this game vs new mexico is a defining one for his team. He is bringing a team with attitude to this game.

-We all know that it is difficult to run on the horned frogs. New Mexico has to be balanced. They can throw , but porterie is very mistake prone when forced to throw. Unlike other teams new mexico has faced , tcu can get a pass rush with their dl ...... and can drop a lot of guys in coverage. I think this plays out similarly to the baylor/tcu game. Baylor could not run the ball and were playing from behind the chains a lot of the game. this leads to mistakes and big plays for the tcu defense. With the return of Blake this week ( guess the roids are finally out of his system ), tcu will again be stout against the run, and will also be more able to pressure the passer without having to bring more people. The bye week has given them time to prepare for the patterns that new mexico likes to run.

- tcu is getting better on offense, when dalton isn't hitting linebackers and db's in stride. Brown gives them a solid running game and their receivers have gotten open with relative consistency all year. Dalton should be getting better at his decision making , though he threw four picks in his last game.

- new mexico has not been playing good football lately but it has been disguised by W's. They were outplayed at sdsu and at home to air force but managed wins in both games. They are not a good 6-2 football team. In their defense one of their losses was the season opener at utep ... a game in which they dominated.

- conversely tcu is not nearly as bad as their 4-4 record would indicate. They lost at texas in a very competitive game that they lost late. They lost to air force in a game they dominated basically the entire game. Words cannot describe how unimaginable that loss was. I do not want to rehash that now , as i had tcu in that one and it could be the worst beat i have ever taken in sports betting over the last 15 years. They lost a game at wyoming , where they played fairly even with the cowboys ( though i think wyoming outplayed thema bit ) and missed a game tying field goal at the end of regulation. And they lost at home to utah do to a string of interceptions, in a game where they outgained the utes by a decent margin. One team is a deceiving 6-2 , the other a deceiving 4-4. which brings us to line value.

-tcu -4 ...... i give tcu a 4 point homefield so that indicates that this game would be pickem on a neutral field. say what ?? New Mexico does not have the talent on the field that tcu has. That talent for tcu is now healthy. There are two average offenses on the field ... one average defense ..... and then the dominant defense that is the horned frogs when tommy blake is in the lineup.

i see tcu having greater success in the run game than new mexico.

do to new mexico having to throw and tcu choosing when to throw , i also see tcu winning the battle through the air. This could be the game where tcu gets more int than they give

tcu has a nice edge in special teams. they have been stellar at blocking kicks and manfredi is an excellent kicker

tcu is 13 -2 straight up in their last 15 home games and are coming off a home loss

if you could circle one game this year and say "that is the toughest game on the lobos schedule" , i think this clearly would be the one.
 
Excellent write-up and I don't disagree with anything you said. It's also nice to play against New Mexico the week after Ferguson runs 41 times. I think he might still be sore.
 
Awesome write-up. TCU's injuries is what is keeping me away at this point.

Looking forward to another winning week.
 
A new game has popped up on my radar. ucf -14 hosting marshall. it is the first ever homecoming in ucf's new stadium. Ramble kind of turned me onto this game so I have cut and paste his thoughts on it below. It can be found in his weekly thread for this week. easy to find with a smiley face always on the side.

Man, apparently I love the CUSA as many of my leans and plays involve this conference. This play comes down to the fact that UCF has manhandled conference foes at home this year, weak or not: 56-20 trouncing of Memphis and a 44-23 bitch slap of Tulsa. On the road, they faltered at ECU (division leader), but just got back on track against S.Miss on Sunday night in a dominating 34-17 win. Like I said in my thread on Sunday, UCF has gotten back on track and is ready to go with a full head of steam. They should be fightin for the conference championship this year, and Marshall is a W that they need. Marshall is a throwing team and UCF will have to stop Bernard Morris's passing attack to cover here. It is good to note that although UCF is 77th in pass defense allowing 237 a game, they have recorded 7 interceptions in their last two games, so it looks like we have a quickly improving secondary here. UCF simply outclasses Marshall and should not be stopped here.

Central Florida running back Kevin Smith vs. Marshall’s rush defense
One person is ultimately responsible for Central Florida’s success this season: running back Kevin Smith. The nation’s second-ranked running back leads the Knights against one of college football’s weakest rush defenses on Saturday.
Smith ranks second in the country, averaging more than 157 rushing yards per game with more than 1,200 total rushing yards this season. Smith also ran for 175 yards and two touchdowns and set four school records in a 34-17 win over Southern Mississippi last Sunday in Hattiesburg.
Marshall’s opponents have compiled more than 200 rushing yards per contest and scored 19 rushing touchdowns this season. Marshall also allowed the mediocre Rice Owls to amass more than 125 rushing yards against them last Saturday.

Extra Notes:

Liking this play more and more - Homecoming and final home game for UCF.!

Thanks for letting me include your write up in my thread ramble. My one real concern in this game is the backdoor as marshall has a capable passing game to invite the moose in. Makes me consider teasing them in this spot and getting past the key numbers 14 , 13 , 11 and 10. Still looking at this one ... but as this is -05 juice day in vegas at the hilton, i should probably decide quickly.
 
vegaskyle said:
- tcu is getting better on offense, when dalton isn't hitting linebackers and db's in stride. Brown gives them a solid running game and their receivers have gotten open with relative consistency all year. Dalton should be getting better at his decision making , though he threw four picks in his last game.
Click to expand...

That's one of the keys right there for me. Dalton is sorry. I think TCU will struggle on offense. What about Brown and Turner at RB? They are both listed as questionable but I'm just going by the matchup page at the other site.

Anyhow, great thread bro. Good luck this week.:cheers:
 
Dalton is always a concern for sure but no more than porterie in this particular match up. Dalton should have better down and distance to throw from. Brown WILL be playing at rb this week.

BAR :cheers:

jpicks :cheers:

macdamn :cheers:

Dmoney :cheers:

steed :cheers:

Ramble:cheers:
 
Turner status according to a TCU message board:

CGP (Gary Patterson) said today at Frog Club that Turner was "ready to go", so I guess he is over whatever injury has been bothering him. I hope that he plays and plays well - CGP even admitted that we need a big back "like Turner" to help our offense.
 
Thanks for the update jpicks. looks like new mexico is taking the money. got a bad number in that game with the 4. crud.

added my first posted teaser today rutgers+8/lsu-1 $300 to win $300

Eliminated michigan .... agonized over this one.

that should do it for me this week. i think we made a pretty good thread this week and i thank everyone who participated. good luck to all of you and hope you all make the money this week.
 
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