time to post my week 10 card so far

RetroVK said:
I made VT a favorite and knew I would be on them all week. I considered utilizing them in my contest picks as well, which means it is a higher confidence game for me even though I just bet a unit. I was sort of hoping for a 3 all week with VT looking like little boys against GT and BC outplaying Miami and both games being high viewership affairs but it never materialized or if it did, I was not on the ball to catch it.
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Yea i was waiting on the same. My main concern is va tech run defense but love this spot...you may have pushed me over an edge hah
 
Continuing the response to Rusty....

FAU is a situational play for me. FIU sits undefeated in conference a game ahead in the loss column to MTSU and Marshall. FIU have already defeated MTSU and face Marshall in the season finale. The point being, if FIU were to lose here they just need to handle midlevel favorite roles against Charlotte and UTSA to get to the Marshall game in the finale and win the conference. FAU, conversely, sits at 3-5, which is in competition with TCU for most disappointing team performance so far this year. Owls will need to win 3 of their last 4 to get bowl eligible and still have to travel to UNT (not an easy venue). This game would appear to be a line in the sand game for FAU. FAU passing offense has just taken a severe step backwards this year, so they rely on Singletary and their running game to get the job done. So it is important they be able to successfully run and FIU is giving up 4.59 per carry so far this year, making that seem doable. Short travel and maybe even fans in the stadium. FIU is fairly balanced offensively and run about 60% of the time (though they have led a lot), while having a really big yards per attempt number. FAU run defense and defense in general has been no great shakes but I do like FAU to have better success running than FIU and given that is what I think both teams want to do, I like the owls from that perspective. I will say that if either team falls behind two scores, I like FIU's chances of coming back better. The FAU QB play is just terrible. So this one is barely matchup and highly situational for me.
 
Liberty-Umass - There was so much I liked about this play when I made it ... two of the faster paced teams in the nation from a time between snaps perspective, and so I knew I would be getting a lot of plays ... two of the statistically top 25 passing attacks from a yards per game perspective .... and two defenses that stink for the most part. It was as simple as that and I would make that play again under the same conditions. The problem, and why the total has dropped, is that there is some bad weather there today ... could see high winds and rain ... so the offense could be slowed down dramatically if that is the case.
 
RetroVK said:
Looking forward to the UGA/UK and AFA/Army games as a fan of football. Should be high quality product. I ultimately decided to pass on Kentucky but I will be cheering for them to win that game.

Also, I cannot truly advocate South Carolina as a big play this morning. I will not sell back any of my action there but with the announcement of the scheduling of the Akron game, giving the gamecocks another relatively easy win towards bowl eligibility, this game no longer has the same meaning to the team. They practiced all week like it did but mentally it has to be a sigh of relief.
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I took the under on jorja/ken-tuck.
Both run, except UGA can pass some. UGA dinks over them and blows them out or both run and so does the clock.
My thinking anyway

GL, tailed a few
 
RetroVK said:
Some dogs worth a look to win straight up of 7 points or more:


Air Force - slightly better rush defense numbers for Air Force as compared to Army. Obviously both teams have familiarity with option defense and option principles. Game should have fewer than normal possessions. Army already bowl eligible with several games ahead of them as a favorite. AFA 3-5 and in desperate need of this win to get headed into bowl game contention. Teams look relatively even to me.

ULM - sneaky bad spot for Ga Southern. They have the emotional win against App State after the QB injury, and then after ULM is a game against Troy. ULM rush defense numbers are somewhat skewed by large outcomes from the TAMU and Ole Miss offenses but they have fared better against their own level of competition. I think the home dog is competitive in a vast majority of game outcomes in this match up. No reason the home team cannot win su a good portion of the time.

more later ..
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Nice call on ULM VK, never in doubt.
 
RetroVK said:
22 games over .500 and plus 20 units plus the SEMO win; did ok in halftimes and tailed cubsker on a sooner team total over. It was the most money i have ever won. And the big stuff did good again. Luckboxed about six games.
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Debbie Gibson is working out well for you. Keep up the good work.
 
Bull awards you a gold star for your SEMO play. Thank you for another helluva week. I elected to pass on some games due to line movements past key numbers - Alabama, Michigan, for example- and adding in some ML sprinkles, still wound up about 8 units ahead. I did make one bad guess and took Utah -8.5. I should not bet any games involving Arizona teams.
Anyway, thank you for the get well wishes. I am doing better the last two days. And keep the good picks coming. Your coattails provide terrific transportation.
 
Thanks Dunn

Bull- glad you are feeling better. Utah lost Huntley for the year in that game to a collarbone. He didnt play defense so it wasnt the reason the bet lost but unfortunate for him and the program
 
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