time to post my week 10 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Week One: 22-29 -9.90 units
Week two: 28-26 -0.6 units
Week three: 31-31 -3.1 units
Week four: 27-24 +0.6 units
Week five 38-33 +1.7 units
Week six 39-33 +2.7 units
Week seven 39-32 +3.8 units
Week eight 42-25 +14.5 units
Week nine 35-31 +0.9 units
Overall 301-264 +10.6 units

Really collapsed tail end of the day but had another decent week. The power of the Debbie Gibson Avatar lives on. Shout out to CTG member Pstone who I believe will be in first place of the Golden Nugget tournament when standings are posted this week.


Kent State at Bowling Green (Pending) 0-0
Miami Ohio at Buffalo (MOH 7, Over 51) 1-1

Ball State at Toledo (Toledo 17) 2-1

Ohio at Western Michigan (Ohio -1, over 66)4-1
Northern Illinois at Akron (over 37) 5-1
Temple at UCF (Temple 10.5, Over 60.5) 6-2

Pittsburgh at UVA (under 48) winner 7-2
Western Kentucky at MTSU (Over 53) 7-3
Colorado at Arizona (Colorado 3) 7-4

Rutgers at Wisconsin (Rutgers 29, Over 50.5) 8-5
Nebraska at Ohio State (Over 72) 8-6
Iowa State at Kansas (No play)
Memphis at ECU (Ecu 13, Over 64.5) 9-7
Ville at Clemson (Over 59.5) 10-7
AFA at Army (AFA 7) 11-7
South Carolina at Ole MIss (South Carolina Pick) 12-7
TAMU at Auburn (Tamu 5) 13-7
Oklahoma State at Baylor (No play)
Cuse at Wake Forest (Under 75) 14-7
Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan (Under 46.5) 15-7
Michigan State at Maryland (Terps 2, Over 46) 15-9
GTECH at UNC ( GT -4 -120 Hugeish or just huge, over 61) 17-9
Texas State at Georgia State (Under 52) 17-10
SJSU at Wyoming (Wyoming -13.5) 18-10
Marshall at USM (Over 46) 19-10
S Alabama at Arkansas State (No play)
Ga Southern at ULM (ULM 7.5, over 55.5) 21-10
Liberty at Umass (over 71.5) 22-10
Kansas State at TCU (No play)
Tulane at USF (Under 59.5) 23-10
FSU at NCSU (Over 52) 24-10
Navy at Cinci (cinci -13, over 50) 25-11
UTEP at Rice (UTEP 1) 26-11
WVU at Texas (Pending)
ULL at Troy (Under 64) 27-11
UGA at UK (Pending)
Iowa at Purdue (Over 51) 28-11
Minnesota at Illinois (Under 64) 28-12
BC at VT (VT 2) 28-13
Penn State at Michigan (Michigan -10) 29-13
Utah at Arizona State (Utah -7 Big) 29-14
Missouri at Florida (Pending)
App State at Coastal (App St -14, Over 55) 30-15
Duke at Miami (Pending - Injury report?)
Houston at SMU (SMU 13) 31-15
UConn at Tulsa (Tulsa -18 large, over 59) 33-15
Notre Dame at NW (ND -9.5) 34-15
FAU at FIU (FAU 3.5) 35-15
UCLA at Oregon (Pending)
UTSA at UAB (UTSA 22) 35-16
Latech at Miss State (Miss st -22.5) 36-16
OU at Texas Tech (OU -11.5, under 77.5) 36-18
Bama at LSU (bama -13.5) 37-18
Stanford at Washington (Washington -10 smallish) 37-19
USC at Oregon State (USC -14 Large)38-19
SDSU at UNM (Under 48.5) 38-20
BYU at Boise State (Over 54) 38-21
Fresno State at UNLV (Passing)
California at Washington State (Cal 10.5) 39-21
Utah State at Hawaii (Utah State -18, Over 70.5) 41-21
Bonus Bullsheet Game Goes Here: SEMO -10.5: Tennessee State 21 SEMO 38
 
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Miami Ohio at Buffalo (MOH 7, Over 51)

Ball State at Toledo (Toledo 17)

Ohio at Western Michigan (Ohio -1, over 66)
Temple at UCF (Temple 10.5, Over 60.5)


Western Kentucky at MTSU (Over 53)


Rutgers at Wisconsin (Rutgers 29, Over 50.5)
Nebraska at Ohio State (Over 72)
Memphis at ECU (Ecu 13, Over 64.5)
Ville at Clemson (Over 59.5)
AFA at Army (AFA 7)
South Carolina at Ole MIss (South Carolina Pick)
TAMU at Auburn (Tamu 5)
Cuse at Wake Forest (Under 75)
Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan (Under 46.5)
Michigan State at Maryland (Terps 2, Over 46)
GTECH at UNC ( GT -4 -120 Hugeish or just huge, over 61)
Texas State at Georgia State (Under 52)
Marshall at USM (Over 46)
Ga Southern at ULM (ULM 7.5, over 55.5)
Liberty at Umass (over 71.5)
Tulane at USF (Under 59.5)
Navy at Cinci (cinci -13, over 50)
UTEP at Rice (UTEP 1)
ULL at Troy (Under 64)
Iowa at Purdue (Over 51)
Penn State at Michigan (Michigan -10)
Utah at Arizona State (Utah -7 Big)
App State at Coastal (App St -14, Over 55)
Houston at SMU (SMU 13)
UConn at Tulsa (Tulsa -18 large, over 59)
Notre Dame at NW (ND -9.5)
FAU at FIU (FAU 3.5)
UTSA at UAB (UTSA 22)
Latech at Miss State (Miss st -22.5)
OU at Texas Tech (OU -11.5, under 77.5)
Bama at LSU (bama -13.5)
USC at Oregon State (USC -14 Large)
SDSU at UNM (Under 48.5)
California at Washington State (Cal 10.5)
Utah State at Hawaii (Utah State -18, Over 70.5)
 
Sure.

First we obviously have the play calling change from Tee to Helton, oline coach ousted, and QB question marks. Those are all knowns. I think Helton and USC probably picked this week to make that change because they feel confident they can post a number against Oregon state so it will be less likely to look bad. This line basically already has that built in and it also has built in that Sears may play. The thing is, I watched Sears in the last game and the kid is a gamer. I liked what I saw from him. Once he settled in, USC really moved it well on an ASU defense that is certainly superior to Oregon State. BUT, reading between the lines, it appears likely to me that JT Daniels passes concussion protocol this week and is behind center next week. When that gets announced tomorrow that line is going to go way up … but keep in mind, I don't think the drop off is as huge as some of the people who just saw USC final score against ASU last week might think anyway. Meaning, I have value now in my estimation but if it is Daniels, I will certainly looking at tangible line value. There were questions asked about whether Daniels will be the starting QB when he returns given how well Sears played. So I think we have a motivated play caller/HFC and a motivated QB against a defense that can be had. From a yards per play perspective only Coastal, Ga State and UConn are giving up more yards per play than Oregon state right now. USC is going to make a lot of big plays in this game. I could get into the stats but they are very lopsided in USC's favor as you would expect. The Beavers can definitely score on people when they are executing but they also make a lot of negative plays that can crush them. They are not the inept team that some people think they are either with some of the deceiving finals they have been involved in. But this is a big ask. In addition, they just won a huge game (for them) and I think it could be a tough mental readiness for them this week. Meanwhile, USC sits at 4 wins … coach is under fire …. vs Cal (improving and tough defense), @UCLA (Improving and rival), and vs Notre Dame (likely loss). They will need to show up here. I think the change to Helton calling plays will be relatively seamless, particularly with Tee still the OC, and I think this could potentially focus the team. The team didn't look disinterested vs Arizona State and quite frankly, if the game goes another 30 minutes I think USC probably would have won there.

USC should take care of business. If not, get your applications for the USC job in early.
 
Marsski said:
Can Miami O score w /Buffalo? Guess we'll find out.
Click to expand...

Per Sagarin similar levels of schedule with MOH's being slightly tougher.

Both teams average 4.27 yards per rush
Moh giving up 3.6 per rush and Buffalo 4.01 per rush
common opponents MOH gave up 2.0 ypc to akron and 4.69 ypc to Army; Buffalo 3.75 and 4.39 respectively.
So what evidence we have seems to point to MOH having a better chance of success running the ball.

Buffalo averaging 7.6 per attempt, MOH 6.6 per attempt passing. This is probably slightly off with Buffalo missing a stud receiver for a little bit.
Buffalo giving up 6.2 per attempt, MOH 6.8 per attempt. Neither team playing against good pass offenses.

Situationally, Buffalo sitting 7-1 with games vs kent st, @ Ohio and @ BGSU remaining. Given MOH remaining schedule, the Buffalo at Ohio game will likely decide the MAC East.

While, MOH sits at 3-5, and has vs ohio, at niu and vs ball state remaining after this one for bowl eligibility.

Game should mean way more to one team than the other, and the separation between these two teams is not that big in my estimation (though Buffalo is better). A lot of veteran leadership on MOH and I think they show up with a good effort in this one and they don't match up poorly.

In addition, in a game totaled around 51 (and while i have the over) the bad FG kicking from Buffalo can really play a factor in the ATS result.
 
I will say, if you like the Buffalo side, you should wait to bet it in my opinion. 6.5, 6, 5.5 are more likely than 7.5 imo.
 
RetroVK said:
Per Sagarin similar levels of schedule with MOH's being slightly tougher.

Both teams average 4.27 yards per rush
Moh giving up 3.6 per rush and Buffalo 4.01 per rush
common opponents MOH gave up 2.0 ypc to akron and 4.69 ypc to Army; Buffalo 3.75 and 4.39 respectively.
So what evidence we have seems to point to MOH having a better chance of success running the ball.

Buffalo averaging 7.6 per attempt, MOH 6.6 per attempt passing. This is probably slightly off with Buffalo missing a stud receiver for a little bit.
Buffalo giving up 6.2 per attempt, MOH 6.8 per attempt. Neither team playing against good pass offenses.

Situationally, Buffalo sitting 7-1 with games vs kent st, @ Ohio and @ BGSU remaining. Given MOH remaining schedule, the Buffalo at Ohio game will likely decide the MAC East.

While, MOH sits at 3-5, and has vs ohio, at niu and vs ball state remaining after this one for bowl eligibility.

Game should mean way more to one team than the other, and the separation between these two teams is not that big in my estimation (though Buffalo is better). A lot of veteran leadership on MOH and I think they show up with a good effort in this one and they don't match up poorly.

In addition, in a game totaled around 51 (and while i have the over) the bad FG kicking from Buffalo can really play a factor in the ATS result.
Click to expand...

Good point on the kicker. I think I generally have Miami a little lower than their stats bear out. Just not sure what Miami identity is...should be Ragland but no. 82 in passing...
 
Buffalo opportunistic at +9 TO ratio vs. Miami at +4. Both almost identical in sacks/sacks allowed at Buff 19/6 and Miami 19/7. Buffalo pass defense better imo and agree Miami rush defense better. Tough game with tight lines imo.
 
I just started reading the other thread on what did we learn in Week 9, with the thoughts of adding something similar but you hit it right on the head here. I thought Stanley had improved but he was simply horrendous in that Penn State game. Very fortunate cover there for me at 6.5 considering how truly badly he played missing medium range throws by a large margin.

7. QB Stanley for Iowa has really regressed. 86 yards passing against Maryland last week and I would say he single handedly beat his own team yesterday. If you did not watch the game, you cannot understand just how horrible he played. He has some decent games this year, so maybe it is a slump but that was brutal to watch.
 
Well the last few weeks I have gotten really lucky and won some games I didn't deserve. I felt tonights MOH at Buffalo game was one of my better capped weekday games of the year but just couldn't make any key plays in the fourth quarter. Third down penalties on stops, failed fourth down late, fumble in game winning fg range, ... and the last four throws which were ponderous. But you have to take the good ones gone bad with the bad ones gone good. Buffalo kicker came through in the clutch was kind of funny too and he struck it well. MOH had no answer for Johnson on the outside. Grats to any Buffalo backers and fans .. team is having a hell of a season.

I am not sure I would recommend getting involved with the MSU at Terps game now. Not sure how Terps will react but it looks like it won't be good based on the players walking out of the team meeting, and the comments made by the family. A little shocked they are bringing Durkin back. Hope the family gets closure that they need for their lost son in some other way. I am sure they will carry on his memory at the school. I just have a bad feeling about the distraction and motivation heading into the next game and have no idea what the players as a whole think or feel about it all .. very tough.

JT Daniels cleared the concussion protocol as expected and so at a minimum we got the value bump from that in our line for that game as we expected.
 
That Buffalo K they say is the school all time leader, but he has missed 5 xpt this year and a handful of FGs. I think the reason why UB has gone for it some much on 4th down this year is they don't want to take the 50-50 risk their kicker will make the FG.

I'm actually going to the Kent - Buff game next week. My wife wanted to take a trip up the east coast to see the "fall colors". I said "let me look at the football schedule, how about Buffalo?" Needless to say she is less than trilled. There won't be much color left and getting wings at Anchor Bar and seeing live MACtion isn't exactly her idea of a good time. Sounds fun to me!
 
s--k said:
That Buffalo K they say is the school all time leader, but he has missed 5 xpt this year and a handful of FGs. I think the reason why UB has gone for it some much on 4th down this year is they don't want to take the 50-50 risk their kicker will make the FG.

I'm actually going to the Kent - Buff game next week. My wife wanted to take a trip up the east coast to see the "fall colors". I said "let me look at the football schedule, how about Buffalo?" Needless to say she is less than trilled. There won't be much color left and getting wings at Anchor Bar and seeing live MACtion isn't exactly her idea of a good time. Sounds fun to me!
Click to expand...

Nice! Those MACtion night games can be cold. Perfect flask and blanket weather in Athens.
 
You were right to label the Buffalo kicker suspect, VK. He did hit the FG that gave them the cover, but only after he missed the PAT to almost cost them the cover.

I pay more attention to kickers than most handicappers, which is probably why I hate them and wish the game would get rid of them. Go for 2 every time and abolish FGs. I'd rather have the rouge from the CFL than have kickers in the game.
 
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RetroVK said:
Well the last few weeks I have gotten really lucky and won some games I didn't deserve. I felt tonights MOH at Buffalo game was one of my better capped weekday games of the year but just couldn't make any key plays in the fourth quarter. Third down penalties on stops, failed fourth down late, fumble in game winning fg range, ... and the last four throws which were ponderous. But you have to take the good ones gone bad with the bad ones gone good. Buffalo kicker came through in the clutch was kind of funny too and he struck it well. MOH had no answer for Johnson on the outside. Grats to any Buffalo backers and fans .. team is having a hell of a season.

I am not sure I would recommend getting involved with the MSU at Terps game now. Not sure how Terps will react but it looks like it won't be good based on the players walking out of the team meeting, and the comments made by the family. A little shocked they are bringing Durkin back. Hope the family gets closure that they need for their lost son in some other way. I am sure they will carry on his memory at the school. I just have a bad feeling about the distraction and motivation heading into the next game and have no idea what the players as a whole think or feel about it all .. very tough.

JT Daniels cleared the concussion protocol as expected and so at a minimum we got the value bump from that in our line for that game as we expected.
Click to expand...

No answer for Johnson at all. I don't think anyone in the MAC can cover him except for maybe CMU...Assuming these teams don't slip up, we got ourselves a big ball game in two weeks in Athens. I might have to head down early and pregame properly if it all comes together. Not sure I trust my Bobcats to be able to make enough plays on defense to win. It feels like maybe this is Buffalo's year.
 
Some dogs worth a look to win straight up of 7 points or more:


Air Force - slightly better rush defense numbers for Air Force as compared to Army. Obviously both teams have familiarity with option defense and option principles. Game should have fewer than normal possessions. Army already bowl eligible with several games ahead of them as a favorite. AFA 3-5 and in desperate need of this win to get headed into bowl game contention. Teams look relatively even to me.

ULM - sneaky bad spot for Ga Southern. They have the emotional win against App State after the QB injury, and then after ULM is a game against Troy. ULM rush defense numbers are somewhat skewed by large outcomes from the TAMU and Ole Miss offenses but they have fared better against their own level of competition. I think the home dog is competitive in a vast majority of game outcomes in this match up. No reason the home team cannot win su a good portion of the time.

more later ..
 
RetroVK said:
ULM - sneaky bad spot for Ga Southern. They have the emotional win against App State after the QB injury, and then after ULM is a game against Troy. ULM rush defense numbers are somewhat skewed by large outcomes from the TAMU and Ole Miss offenses but they have fared better against their own level of competition. I think the home dog is competitive in a vast majority of game outcomes in this match up. No reason the home team cannot win su a good portion of the time.

more later ..
Click to expand...

I was going to post something on this in the ML Dog thread, but will expand on your thoughts here.

GaSouthern beat App St by 20 - only outgained them by 46y.
GaSouthern beat NMST by 17 - only outgained them by 23y.
GaSouthern beat TexasSt by 2 - TexSt outgained them by 27y.

See a theme here

GaSouthern beat South Alabama by 35 - only outgained them by 68y.
GaSouthern beat Arkansas St by 7 - Ark St outgained them by 84y.

They are +14 turnovers in those games.

There are teams that just have years like this, where they get wins that they aren't necessarily earning with good offense, but are benefiting with created turnovers / other teams mistakes and getting lopsided results where they otherwise would not exist.

They are a good team, but not dominating people. ULM looks pretty attractive....although looking at both sides of the coin, ULM has been rather disappointing in a few games this season. I still believe in them and almost certainly going to be on their ML +241 at current.
 
ADDS

Pittsburgh at UVA Under 48
Wyoming -13.5 (mainly tailing someone on this)
Colorado 3
Minnesota/Illinois under 64
 
I'm leaning to Wyoming myself. I'm behind and haven't even had time to check the weather yet, but I know there are some storms arriving this weekend and one of them may hit the Rockies.
 
TahoeLegend said:
I'm leaning to Wyoming myself. I'm behind and haven't even had time to check the weather yet, but I know there are some storms arriving this weekend and one of them may hit the Rockies.
Click to expand...

Yes. This could be one of those rare instances where cold and wind really help the dd favorite
 
I will not be including it in my record above and I have a slightly different number than what current market is but since I took the time to handicap a few fcs games to find this and wanted to honor our friend Bull, I will post the current line which I still think is good EV.

The VKSHEET

SEMO -10.5
 
TahoeLegend said:
I'm leaning to Wyoming myself. I'm behind and haven't even had time to check the weather yet, but I know there are some storms arriving this weekend and one of them may hit the Rockies.
Click to expand...


There is monster westerly flow out this way. Dumping at high elevations. Forecasting 25 mph + constant at Wyoming tomorrow. There will be very little passing, if any.
 
Tailed you all week long. Please forgive me for being 6-1-1 as I got Temple +12. Thank you
 
RetroVK said:
I will not be including it in my record above and I have a slightly different number than what current market is but since I took the time to handicap a few fcs games to find this and wanted to honor our friend Bull, I will post the current line which I still think is good EV.

The VKSHEET

SEMO -10.5
Click to expand...
I’m not in a position yet to access my voluminous FCS records, but that number looks about right. FWIW , Keepers a rating service I use to check my pix, also has the game at 10+. GL
 
VK - Interested in your thoughts on GA/KY. I'm inclined to play KY but my concern is there ability offensively to come back if they happen to get down by DD. GA seems to me to be somewhat vulnerable to the power running game and if KY can stay patient and keep banging it in there with Snell and make it more of a limited possession game I think they will be fine. I was surprised to see that GA only has 10 sacks on the year. I feel pretty good about KY being able to stop the run, but less about the pass. KY seems to match up pretty well in the trenches for this one.
 
It is such a tough game. I am sort of done doubting kentucky defense at home against quality opponents. But at the same time they got pretty lucky last week to win and i think uga is more balanced offensively than most teams uk has played. Their oline won't wilt as bad either. Kentucky is good but are they good enough to hang with a top 5 type team? Not sure. If they have to throw, i doubt they succeed much. That is a lot of pts to give the cats in what will be an electric atmosphere though. I have become a huge fan of Allen. I dont know what to do with it. If i was as confident as you that uk couldnline up and power run snell then i would hop on uk for sure.

Guess i would prefer pts and home dog but dang ...
 
RetroVK said:
I will not be including it in my record above and I have a slightly different number than what current market is but since I took the time to handicap a few fcs games to find this and wanted to honor our friend Bull, I will post the current line which I still think is good EV.

The VKSHEET

SEMO -10.5
Click to expand...

Tenn St defense is a shell of the unit they typically put on the field and SEMO certainly is firing on all cylinders. Total should probably be 85. GL this weekend.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Thoughts on FIU -2.5, Liberty or UTEP?
Click to expand...

I will start with UTEP. One of the important things in all sporting endeavors is the belief in yourself to be able to win. If you do not believe you can win, you are going to have a very difficult time winning. The Miners have not won in a very long time ... wanna say it is 20 games as they won their finale in 2016. But they have been playing with great effort and this line tells them something they need to know, that they can win this game. When you get down to the matchup itself, the elephant in the room is the Rice defense. There are six or seven teams giving up 7 yards per play or more and Rice is one of them. It is about 1.25 yards per play more than UTEP gives up. Meanwhile their defenses in aggregate are performing about the same. Miners get their best offensive lineman Henry back this week which should give them some relief up front after being dominated by UAB last week. It looks like Jones will be the QB again and he isn't great but he isn't terrible. Locksley is doubtful and Metz is likely just out. Were a healthy Metz or Locksley calling plays UTEP would have a better shot but Jones has a few games under his belt now and I don't think the drop off is THAT huge. This was all a long way of saying that I took the better overall football team to win with a chance to snap a 20 game losing streak.
 
Adds

FSU/NCST over 52 (thanks for sharing thoughts with me BBF)
Washington -10 (smallish)
 
Looking forward to the UGA/UK and AFA/Army games as a fan of football. Should be high quality product. I ultimately decided to pass on Kentucky but I will be cheering for them to win that game.

Also, I cannot truly advocate South Carolina as a big play this morning. I will not sell back any of my action there but with the announcement of the scheduling of the Akron game, giving the gamecocks another relatively easy win towards bowl eligibility, this game no longer has the same meaning to the team. They practiced all week like it did but mentally it has to be a sigh of relief.
 
rambler882 said:
Ive been trying to convince myself on this one all week.
Click to expand...

I made VT a favorite and knew I would be on them all week. I considered utilizing them in my contest picks as well, which means it is a higher confidence game for me even though I just bet a unit. I was sort of hoping for a 3 all week with VT looking like little boys against GT and BC outplaying Miami and both games being high viewership affairs but it never materialized or if it did, I was not on the ball to catch it.
 
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