Time to post my week 10 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
week 1 17-15
week 2 13-7
week 3 16-17
week 4 10-16
week 5 15-8
week 6 17-15
week 7 15-9
week 8 13-15
week 9 15-14
overall 131-116 53% (ugh) up ~3 units (ugh)

Goal is pretty much a unit a week so considerably behind schedule and hitting the part of the year that I traditionally struggle so this could be the year I end up behind in cfb.

Toledo/akron under 72.5 1-0
Toledo-10 2-0
Buffalo 20 2-1
Buffalo/Ohio over 51 2-2
Ark State/Ga St over 46 3-2
UCLA/Colorado Under 58.5 4-2
Oklahoma/Iowa St 1half under 37 4-3
2h cmich/miami under 24.5 largish (+) 5-3
Cmich/Miami Under 47 (+) 5-4
Temple/Uconn Under 45 (+) 6-4
Notre Dame 6.5(+) 6 5
Wisconsin/NW over 41 (+) 6 6
Pitt/Miami Under 58 (+) 6 7
pitt mia 2h under 30.5 6 8
Wake Forest -3 7 8
VT/Duke over 54 7 9
Duke +11 8 9
Stanford -14 -117 8 10
TCU 8 9 10
Oklahoma State/kansas State under 56 9 11
okst 3 10 11
Tulane/UCF under 50 (+) 11 11
Sbama/ULM Under 51 11 12
UNT 20 (sprinkled a little +750 ml) 11 13
UNT/Latech over 65.5 12 13
Hawaii/SDSU under 54 12 14
uga -2.5 (+) 13 14
Alabama/LSU under 45 14 14
Nebraska/Ohio State over 52.5 15 14
ECU 10 (+) 15 15
ECU/Tulsa over 75 15 16
Utah State/wyo Under 55.5 15 17
Washington/Cal under 77 (+) 15 18
Air Force/Army under 47.5 16 18


 
Last edited:
Thanks Wise. That worked out well.

Grats to Cubs fans everywhere, particularly the real ones.

Adds

Buffalo 20
Buffalo/Ohio over 51
Ark State/Ga St over 46
UCLA/Colorado Under 58.5
Oklahoma/Iowa St 1half under 37

good luck
 
How much concern do you have with UCLA that they come out and throw it all over again? 71 throws to 16 rush against Utah which is almost too much for my brain to comprehend. Was a kinda weird total for me to make without having a read on that.
 
CrimsonK said:
How much concern do you have with UCLA that they come out and throw it all over again? 71 throws to 16 rush against Utah which is almost too much for my brain to comprehend. Was a kinda weird total for me to make without having a read on that.
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They have just been so abysmal running the ball that it is hard to blame him. 684 rushing yards and about 30% of that came against unlv. I think they were having some success throwing on Utah so he stuck with it more than he might otherwise .. down 14-0 early and down late so there was also that impetus. But with the success also came 4 interceptions. I guess I would expect them to be more conservative on the road in this game. In any event, Colorado in the top 15 in pass defense and top 5 in opponent passer rating so they are a good match up defensively if UCLA goes that route. Obviously, from a pace perspective it would get tough if UCLA throws it 71 times.
 
Thanks. I made it 14 and 57 but I kinda was wanting to bet the over but never saw a number I was comfortable with. I'll root for ya - GL this week
 
clowncar said:
They have just been so abysmal running the ball that it is hard to blame him. 684 rushing yards and about 30% of that came against unlv. I think they were having some success throwing on Utah so he stuck with it more than he might otherwise .. down 14-0 early and down late so there was also that impetus. But with the success also came 4 interceptions. I guess I would expect them to be more conservative on the road in this game. In any event, Colorado in the top 15 in pass defense and top 5 in opponent passer rating so they are a good match up defensively if UCLA goes that route. Obviously, from a pace perspective it would get tough if UCLA throws it 71 times.
Click to expand...
I'm figuring Col to have success running the ball and be able to control the clock. Always tough to handicap turnovers and I'm hoping for some long sustained drives out of Col. Like the play.
 
You like Buffalo to hang tight?

After seeing Akron again last night there's not much to be impressed there with that win @ home 10 days ago for Buffalo.

Ohio has a bad secondary, solid rush D... Buffalo can pass and take advantage?
 
clowncar said:
Thanks Wise. That worked out well.

Grats to Cubs fans everywhere, particularly the real ones.

Adds

Buffalo 20
Buffalo/Ohio over 51
Ark State/Ga St over 46
UCLA/Colorado Under 58.5
Oklahoma/Iowa St 1half under 37

good luck
Click to expand...

I'm on the under here. Probably good for you. Isn't the QB out for Ohio?
 
pressitup said:
I'm on the under here. Probably good for you. Isn't the QB out for Ohio?
Click to expand...

Ohio's season starter Windham is hurt. Maxwell started the last 2 vs Kent and Toledo. They put Windham in the game vs Toledo because I think Frank said "thought Maxwell was missing some downfield throws". Then Windham got hurt in the 2nd half. So they have the same QB starting they've had the last 2 weeks (and actually Maxwell replaced Windham vs EM 3 weeks ago), but they do lose the ability to bring the other guy in at this point.
 
s--k said:
Ohio's season starter Windham is hurt. Maxwell started the last 2 vs Kent and Toledo. They put Windham in the game vs Toledo because I think Frank said "thought Maxwell was missing some downfield throws". Then Windham got hurt in the 2nd half. So they have the same QB starting they've had the last 2 weeks (and actually Maxwell replaced Windham vs EM 3 weeks ago), but they do lose the ability to bring the other guy in at this point.
Click to expand...

So , you are verifying that I need to stay away from the MAC? Haha
 
Nice job on Toledo and the under last night. Had nothing on that one but was pulling for Toledo since the Akron loss helps my Bobcat division future. Also on Buffalo but jumped too soon at 19 but don't think it will matter as Ohio just hasn't shown that explosive capability this year so I think Buffalo should be able to keep it a 1-2 score game when all is said and done. Best of luck rest of the weekend.
 
Could have been an epic night but Buffalo failed to score TD's on first and goal from the 2 twice ... which led to them not covering or contributing to the over despite outgaining Ohio in the game. Not sure the total was the correct side but pretty sure Buffalo was. Anyway, had a bounce gone right in that game for Buffalo or just not as wrong, they cover and it goes over. Oh well. Then I managed to play one of the only first halves I have done all year instead of the full game and they score three td's in the last 4 and half minutes of the first half and the game goes under for the full game. sigh. Luckboxed the Arkst total so cannot complain there ... no chance that should have come in.

Anyway, wanted to post this game and I will post the remainder tomorrow afternoon.

This is my favorite total bet of this year ...

Air Force/Army under 47.5
 
what are the numbers next to your plays kyle14? And do not say this will be a down year for you, just time for you to kill november and the bowls because it's been a while since you've done it
 
GWarner27 said:
what are the numbers next to your plays kyle14? And do not say this will be a down year for you, just time for you to kill november and the bowls because it's been a while since you've done it
Click to expand...

Well, I have absolutely destroyed bowls the last few years but it is usually just making up for november losses. Last two years of bowls has been a lot better than expectation. And I enjoy them thoroughly as it involves some of the more interesting puzzle work of the year.
 
Frank Costanza said:
GL this weekend. Thanks for your continued great insights.
Click to expand...

Sorry I am not providing much insight the last few weeks and won't be next week either. But after that it should pick up again with actual thoughts on the games. I am in a contest and really feel a little hamstrung right now because I am mostly making plays end of the week and for the last two weeks i have decided to not post until friday afternoon because of a contest i am in. But after next week, I should be back to a more normalized thread.
 
clowncar said:
Could have been an epic night but Buffalo failed to score TD's on first and goal from the 2 twice ... which led to them not covering or contributing to the over despite outgaining Ohio in the game. Not sure the total was the correct side but pretty sure Buffalo was. Anyway, had a bounce gone right in that game for Buffalo or just not as wrong, they cover and it goes over. Oh well. Then I managed to play one of the only first halves I have done all year instead of the full game and they score three td's in the last 4 and half minutes of the first half and the game goes under for the full game. sigh. Luckboxed the Arkst total so cannot complain there ... no chance that should have come in.

Anyway, wanted to post this game and I will post the remainder tomorrow afternoon.

This is my favorite total bet of this year ...

Air Force/Army under 47.5
Click to expand...

Yeah, the Buffalo game was painful to watch as I sat there with my +19 and they just couldn't take advantage of just one of those opportunities. This one could have easily been a 10-14 point game well within the number, but that's how it goes.
 
carolinablue said:
Yeah, the Buffalo game was painful to watch as I sat there with my +19 and they just couldn't take advantage of just one of those opportunities. This one could have easily been a 10-14 point game well within the number, but that's how it goes.
Click to expand...

The second half field position was really bad. They kept getting pinned inside the 10. Credit to Ohio Special Teams but that made it difficult and made a chunk of those 400 plus yards occur on the wrong side of the 50 hurting side and total alike.
 
clowncar said:
Could have been an epic night but Buffalo failed to score TD's on first and goal from the 2 twice ... which led to them not covering or contributing to the over despite outgaining Ohio in the game. Not sure the total was the correct side but pretty sure Buffalo was. Anyway, had a bounce gone right in that game for Buffalo or just not as wrong, they cover and it goes over. Oh well. Then I managed to play one of the only first halves I have done all year instead of the full game and they score three td's in the last 4 and half minutes of the first half and the game goes under for the full game. sigh. Luckboxed the Arkst total so cannot complain there ... no chance that should have come in.

Anyway, wanted to post this game and I will post the remainder tomorrow afternoon.

This is my favorite total bet of this year ...

Air Force/Army under 47.5
Click to expand...
I str8 tailed you last night (except did not take Buffalo)...that total loss in Buffalo was brutal, 37 pts @ halftime and only 7 2h. But, talk about lucky on ArkSt total ( I had 47 that blocked xp late kept me at a push). Then the OU total first H was as bad a beat as possible (you capped it perfectly).....ez winner UCLA/Col :shake2:
 
Thanks all.

Ok I hope you have the stomach for this ......


Cmich/Miami Under 47 (+)
Temple/Uconn Under 45 (+)
Notre Dame 6.5(+)
Wisconsin/NW over 41 (+)
Pitt/Miami Under 58 (+)
Wake Forest -3
VT/Duke over 54
Duke +11
Stanford -14 -117
TCU 8
Oklahoma State/kansas State under 56
okst 3
Tulane/UCF under 50 (+)
Sbama/ULM Under 51
UNT 20 (sprinkled a little +750 ml)
UNT/Latech over 65.5
Hawaii/SDSU under 54
uga -2.5 (+)
Alabama/LSU under 45
Nebraska/Ohio State over 52.5
ECU 10 (+)
ECU/Tulsa over 75
Utah State/wyo Under 55.5
Washington/Cal under 77 (+)
 
South Carolina is playing for their bowl if you are wondering at all about that move. I want to back south carolina but it is simply already accounted for by the time i figured it out.
 
Did you play the Gamecocks and I just do not see it on your list? Sorry post above confused me
 
No. I missed the good numbers. I want to though. Might take over our scary tt over... Dunno. But the move is a good one in my estimation. What a story if your boys bowlm hell of a season if they do that
 
clowncar said:
No. I missed the good numbers. I want to though. Might take over our scary tt over... Dunno. But the move is a good one in my estimation. What a story if your boys bowlm hell of a season if they do that
Click to expand...
What number did you miss? I saw an opener near -7, saw it go to 8.5 and im seeing 6.5 again.

Would be a good story if we can make it happen. Still not convinced with Roper so far but I have to say my expectations of Muschamp were rather low and he has exceeded them for me. Bentley looks strong, am pretty excited at the prospect of building a team around him. Would not be hard to get the recruiting up with current staff considering last coaching staff pretty much stopped recruiting.
 
Good luck to you, VK.
Always enjoy and appreciate your contributions here.
bull
 
tee*dub said:
tailed
Click to expand...

Hard to imagine this game hitting 60 without overtime involvement. That type of silliness from the first half cannot continue, I know that for as near sure as I can pretend to know what these kids will do on a given night.
 
JohnnyGambler said:
North Texas thoughts? Know you nail a 20+ dog to win SU this time of year. Was looking at them.
Click to expand...

Let's take a peak at North Texas getting three scores at home to latech.

Latech on its face appears to be playing quality football but I also think they have played an easy schedule and quite frankly even played teams at opportune times during this stretch. The situation for the game appears to be a lazy one for latech in my opinion. They have their sights set on the cusa west title. They currently sit atop the West division leaderboard at 4-1, with usm at 3-1. Their remaining schedule is vs UTSA in their home finale and then the big game at southern mississippi. In other words, they can afford to drop this game ... the west title is going to come down to who wins in the last week of the year. Their last three games have been umass, fiu and rice who are a combined 6-20 and who, as a collective, are horrible defensively. Here they go on the road to play a team that is a little better than people think and who actually gives up less yards and less yards per play on defense than latech does. And this game is going to mean a lot more to north texas. They sit at 4-4 with at wky and home to usm before they finish up at utep to close the year. The game against usm will likely mean more to usm than this game will to latech in the event latech wins this game. In other words, this is the game they are most likely to sneak a win out in for a shot at bowl eligibility. North Texas has gotten fairly decent and consistent QB play outside of the florida game and I can forgive them for that game. Moreover, they have played very good pass defense (28th or so yards per game defense against the pass, 17th best in opponent passer rating .. both skewed slightly by having played army option) all year long which gives me hope they can slow down Taylor and Henderson a little bit. At home with motivation against a team that should not have motivation, defensive strength matches up to (or as well as could be expected, they could still get torched) the offensive strength of the opponent and if the conference is going to get a sixth bowl eligible team it has to be either this unt squad or utsa.

Just my kind of huge underdog. put a unit on the plus pts and sprinkled some 750 or so ml.
 
ksimpsc said:
What number did you miss? I saw an opener near -7, saw it go to 8.5 and im seeing 6.5 again.

Would be a good story if we can make it happen. Still not convinced with Roper so far but I have to say my expectations of Muschamp were rather low and he has exceeded them for me. Bentley looks strong, am pretty excited at the prospect of building a team around him. Would not be hard to get the recruiting up with current staff considering last coaching staff pretty much stopped recruiting.
Click to expand...

it opened much lower.

There was a time when Muschamp was a hot commodity. Some of that head coach experience that didn't work out the first go around might be paying dividends now. I wish he could come back and teach my Texas kids how to tackle the way they did when he was coaching them.

Just a good story in my opinion. I gave this team little shot at a bowl and here they are as a favorite to go bowling now. Amazing.
 
Inspekdah said:
You like Buffalo to hang tight?

After seeing Akron again last night there's not much to be impressed there with that win @ home 10 days ago for Buffalo.

Ohio has a bad secondary, solid rush D... Buffalo can pass and take advantage?
Click to expand...

hmmmm missed this before. sorry spek. The answer to the last question turned out to be that they could definitely pass on Ohio but that they could not take advantage. As I stated in earlier post .. taking 20 and outgaining opponent is something I will take my chances with every single time. I didn't see enough of the game to be certain they were the better bet but the play by play and box score certainly say so. There was time and score factors involved however ... so not saying they deserved to win outright or anything but 11-14 pt loss would have been more reflective of the game (I think anyway)
 
I'm really interested to see how Eason looks if he has the run game going a little bit and he's not getting pressured. I am not impressed by how UK rushes the passer and I think a big function of why Eason has been so bad is because his OL is trash and they have seen a few teams that can get after a QB. Few nice X and O edges to UGA but I think the situationals are really in favor UK, similar as to what you alluded to in the USCe game
 
BOL today Kyle, interested on your take on a couple of games if you have a minute. FSU and NCST, maybe hard to figure FSU collective psyche given a disappointing year but they did play Clemson very tough and think they may be leery of NCST given history of difficulties in the past. Don't think they overlook this game, and though I respect NCST defense have to believe Cook really gives FSU an advantage offensively and think FSU running game is much better. Also, see you going back to the well on Pitt under and was curious what you thought about the side in that game. Pitt just seems to be so stubborn on defense and intent on leaving their corners in man coverage and therefore susceptible to the big plays. I think Miami can take advantage here, but then not sure Miami can stop Pitt running game either...Lastly thoughts on Nebraska/OSU, see you on over there and wondering if you think Neb plus points is a decent play?
 
I still think FSU is a decent team and their defense finally started to play better prior to the clemson game which is forgivable. NCSU has just been hung over since blowing the game against that same Clemson team. Schedules are actually fairly similar so you would think the stats matter here. FSU considerably better offensively and NCSU considerably better defensively (again I think fsu is starting to play better with their assignments on that side finally). Three weeks ago I would have liked ncsu at this number but they haven't cracked 400 yards on offense the last 4 games and if that kind of production continues, I don't see how they keep up with FSU. Tend to play FSU tough though with worse versions of themselves than this and better versions of fsu than this, for whatever reason. And then one has to wonder how good is ncsu really? I mean they had the game against Clemson which says something but how many turnovers did clemson have in that one? They have beaten william and mary, old dom, wake forest and notre dame. The notre dame game was played in a hurricane and they won because the nd punter kicked the ball off the butt of his own teammate. Seems lined about right I suppose .. but I think I could make a better case for fsu than ncsu.

What pitt is doing with the corners is ridiculous. As I mentioned last week, D$ made a great point to me about how Narduzzo is used to having nfl corner talent and just refuses to accept that he doesn't here. Maybe psychologically he wants to believe the msu defenses were more about him than the talent he had. I think it was the mixture of both ... that he had the talent where he needed for his defensive schemes. I do think Miami can take some advantage of that and they have been throwing more the last few games (trailing). Have to think they come in with the gameplan to throw given pitt couldn't guard a vt wr the entire game last time i saw them. I know miami is coming off a couple of games where they gave up some yards on the ground but prior to that they were defending the run pretty well, including GTech, UNC, Appst and florida state. So I think they match up ok there and are only giving up an average of 3.57 yards per carry which is actually top 30 type stuff. Another situation where the game has more meaning for Miami than Pitt .. also tough travel for pitt. Guess I lean miami florida to win the game just not sure i trust that team to win by 5 or more.

I think it is lined about right. I would have liked this number had they been playing ohio state last week a little more. Back to back roadies at super tough places and that was a very damaging loss for them last week and every emotional with the overtime. I do like their coach to get his teams ready though in the past. I also have trust issues with Armstrong and just making that boneheaded play that gives free pts to Ohio State. But end of the day, I don't think there is 13 pts of separation between these two teams on a neutral so I would lean to nebraska. I also think they can hit the vertical ball a little against the style of defense ohio state has been using so I do think they get a couple of big plays in the game as well. 37-24 somehow.... I am hoping.... Either way, I like the over ... if Nebraska shows up and scores then it goes over, if they are flat after wiscy they get rolled and it goes over too. Pace is the issue for this game and the total as it does not rate to be played with a ton of plays.
 
Thanks so much for your thoughts Kyle, very helpful and greatly appreciated.
 
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