time to post my week 10 card so far

I think Indiana is kind of a one trick pony at this point with Coleman. It would be under or nothing for me as far as the total goes.
 
ADDS

Terps/psu under 48
329/330 gast/appst under 70
343/344 wmich/mia oh under 56.5
311/312 ndame/navy under 55.5
351/352 wku/latech over 70
369/370 ind/mich under 53
338/340 pur/neb over 61
387/388 csu/sjsu over 54
 
gps - thanks. You are a really good dude btw and more importantly an asset to this board.

shark - thanks as always, sir
 
After our discussion on the Indiana/Michigan total I went ahead and added it in as early forecasts look to involve weather and that would be the last nail to make me go under there. If the weather does not pan out, then I would not make that play.
 
cubsker said:
seems a lot to ask both of these teams to score 4 TDs which is about what you need. I could see 20-17 or 35-31 though. I played under, but not in love with it.
Click to expand...

Ya it seems you need a high level of efficiency to get to 60 or more in that game given pace and styles. I mean, I doubt either one of us is backing the under based on the defensive prowess of the two teams involved .. it has to do with the other stuff.
 
I get it .. Ville has an elite defense and are now healthier on offense with Gardner and Parker. I get that the RB is out for FSU and that their offensive line doesn't rate to produce against the Ville front seven. I get that Winston usually gets time to throw and he rates to have less time to throw and he has a bit of a wind up to his motion. But I don't see how ville truly gets the job done offensively. When you are handicapping, it is usually important to put stats into proper perspective in my opinion. Ville is 94th in the nation in total offense which is bad on its face but in their defense the defenses played were good .. Miami fl, fiu, wake, Clemson, Virginia ..... but that doesn't make up for the fact that they are benefitting from stellar defense. Meaning that when a defense dominates the way there's has, the offense should have more opportunity for yards and pts than your average offense. That hasn't happened for them. Sort of the opposite is true in regards to the FSU defense in that they have played some good offensive teams this year ( the good version of Clemson too ) for the most part and came out flat most games in the first half. How can a 3-4 pt spread not have FSU attention as a player? I haven't seen anything from Gardner or Ville to make me think they make huge plays.

I admit .. the line move tells me that ville wins outright. I rarely learn from this mistake. I admit I haven't won a penny on a Thursday in 45 years and I admit that I get a sick pleasure watching teams storm the field against me. But I am on record of believing that Louisville is over rated. I don't think they have faced many offenses or QB's of this quality. I think both teams probably move for first downs but struggle to make long drives and when it is a close game in the 4th quarter I would rather have Jameis than Gardner ... though I would rather have the ville D too.

I think we see a low scoring game ... in the realm of 24-17 FSU ...

If FSU loses this game, my only hope is that it is a legit loss and not a team from florida with a greased pig all night. Just protect the ball and make ville beat you with their offense. Don't gift them field position.
 
That is the only thing I would say in my pregame speech to my team. Don't turn the ball over. Don't turn the ball over. Don't turn the ball over. Don't turn the ball over. Don't give a defensive score. Don't turn the ball over. Don't turn the ball over. Don't turn the ball over.
 
Interesting that you seem to have more 'bad' numbers than 'good' ones.
Unusual for you.
Maybe that is what you need to get things going in the opposite direction.

We agree/ disagree abut 50-50 and, strangely, you have a few that I'm not involved with.
Good luck
 
yup some of this is ugly ... I have had a few weeks like this...

Tulsa +21.5 24.5 now .. ouch...-3
ucf -13 -10.5 now ... ouch .. weather likely the reason ... -5.5
Pitt -1 ( large ) -3 now .... -3.5
afa -3 -129 .. juice much? ... -3 most spots or juiced on the 2.5 ... .. call it -1 ... -4.5
northwestern +5 now 4 ....... -3.5
Kentucky +7 now 8.5 .. ouch ... -5
Indiana +8 now 6.5 most spots .. -3.5
TCU -5 ... now -3.5 ouch ..... -5
Houston -9.5 now -9 .... -5.5
utep -5 now -7 ...-3.5
sdsu +4.5 now 3 ....-2
Tamu -31 now -34.5 .... +1.5
terps +3 now 3.5 ... +1
cin -4 -120 ( yes I know ) ...now -6 .. call it 1.5 ... +2.5
VT -3 -104 now -3/3.5 .. call it .5 ... _+3
Oklahoma State +14.5 now 12.5 ... +5
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX sides +5 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Terps/psu under 48 now 47.5 .. 0.5
329/330 gast/appst under 70 now 67.5 .... 3
343/344 wmich/mia oh under 56.5........now 55.5 ....4
311/312 ndame/navy under 55.5 now 54.5 .. 5
351/352 wku/latech over 70 .....uh hoh .. now 69.5 .... 4.5
369/370 ind/mich under 53 ... 52.5 ,,, 5
338/340 pur/neb over 61 ,,,,now 61,5 ,,,,,,, 5,5
387/388 csu/sjsu over 54 now 55.5 ... 7
tcu/wvag under 73 ,, now 70/70.5 call it 2.5 .... 9.5

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX totals 9.5 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX



yup I have some doozy bad ones in there ....
 
In all seriousness....a bit about why you like Okie State if you have a minute.....I thought last week against a good Texas D is when KSU would potentially fall on their face. This week against a lifeless Okie State team + Saturday Night ABC atmosphere.....I was thinking blowout? Pretty sure KSU as a DD conference chalk at home last few years pretty strong numbers. Thanks if you get to it.
 
You must have a million plays. I wish you luck a million times Kyle.:shake1:
 
aplous said:
In all seriousness....a bit about why you like Okie State if you have a minute.....I thought last week against a good Texas D is when KSU would potentially fall on their face. This week against a lifeless Okie State team + Saturday Night ABC atmosphere.....I was thinking blowout? Pretty sure KSU as a DD conference chalk at home last few years pretty strong numbers. Thanks if you get to it.
Click to expand...

One of the reasons that I liked Texas against KSU last week was that I thought I saw Swoopes and the Texas OC turn a corner against ISU the week prior and they would be capable of throwing the football. KSU rush defense is really strong. But they are vulnerable a little to the pass. This week Oklahoma State should be able to have some success passing the ball and Seales has finally awakened and will be allowed to play this week. More importantly they likely get Lampkin back this week which plugs the biggest hole on the defensive side of the ball. He is probably their best defensive player and he has been out with an ankle injury and they have tried to replace him with a piece of burnt toast. Oklahoma State has really only played the one bad game against TCU and has otherwise been pretty decent.

The score from last week was deceiving ....

[TABLE="class: mod-data"]
<tbody>[TR="class: team-color-strip"]
[TH="align: left"][/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
WVU[/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
OKST[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]448[/TD]
[TD]436[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]238[/TD]
[TD]242[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]210[/TD]
[TD]194[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]7-57[/TD]
[TD]4-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]3rd Down Conversions[/TD]
[TD]9-18[/TD]
[TD]2-15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]4th Down Conversions[/TD]
[TD]0-0[/TD]
[TD]1-5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]33:39[/TD]
[TD]26:21[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


Meanwhile, I don't think KSU can really be relied upon to consistently score TD's. Waters has been accurate and he has some running ability and Lockett is a good player ( but wont be the fastest return man on the field tomorrow ) but if Oklahoma State is able to generate offense in the passing game then I think kstate struggles to score enough to cover the two td's plus.

I also like Oklahoma State's chances of backdooring the game late if down 20 or 17 when ksu is done scoring. Garman isn't very good but he isn't that bad either and with a healthier (so to speak) WR group should have a better week here. It is also a game the team can get up for. I am not a great spot player .. not my deal .. but the spot is bad for ksu too. Off wins vs the poster programs of the conference at ou and home to texas and then have tcu and wvu after this one. This is the game ... if any ... that ksu would rate to be flattest. I am not sure Snyder ever has a flat team but I could see it here. In fact, I could see okie state starting fast and ksu grinding their way to a win.

I wont be shocked if I lose this bet .. all ksu does is win and cover. they are well coached at every position on the field, the kids buy in and work hard and play for one another. They are everything I like about college sports and sports in general. And they could take this opportunity on ABC to say "hey look at us" but I think there are factors pointing to a competitive game and so I took the two td's plus and if the game goes badly, I would still think there is a chance for a backdoor late.
 
VK, did you forget these bets?? (post #33)
#307/308 Tulsa/Memphis over 61
#317/318 UCF/UConn over 39
#321/322 ncsu/cuse over 50.5
#371/372 uva/gt under 56
#379/380 rice/fiu under51
#397/398 usm/utep under 59
 
ya forgot to add them to the first post ( which I copy and pasted for line movement quick look )
 
good call on iowa tee.

2h tam -13.5
2h tamu/ulm over 30

should see the qb the team wants this half.
 
2h notredame/navy under 28.5 ( have to have this number or better to play ) . navy receiving. I think ndame makes the adjustments on defense and game hits fourth quarter with ndame managing it rather than trying to score a bunch. Unfortunate the weather failed to hit this game.
 
Don't think I have seen a more fraudulent team than duke in a few decades ..

[TABLE="class: mod-data"]
<tbody>[TR="class: team-color-strip"]
[TH="align: left"][/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
DUKE[/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
PITT[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]4-8[/TD]
[TD]9-13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]0-0[/TD]
[TD]0-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]438[/TD]
[TD]594[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]266[/TD]
[TD]236[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att
[/TD]
[TD]23-31[/TD]
[TD]16-24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass
[/TD]
[TD]8.6[/TD]
[TD]9.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]172[/TD]
[TD]358[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts
[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush
[/TD]
[TD]6.4[/TD]
[TD]5.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]3-20[/TD]
[TD]8-61[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost
[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown
[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]18:52[/TD]
[TD]41:08[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
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