time to post my week 1 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Time for another season of high hopes and greater disappointment. I hope you all win a little money this season with your bets and I hope you enjoy the game of college football and all the pageantry around it.

Locked In (Strongest Play to Weakest Play listing on sides):
Purdue 26 winner 1-0
Notre Dame -15 winner 2-0
Rutgers 30.5 winner 3-0
Georgia -14 (Most Money at this number) winner 4-0
VT -4.5 PENDING
Nebraska -16.5 (Most money at this number) Loser 4-1
Akron 33.5 loser 4-2
FIU 17.5 loser 4-3
Boston College -2.5 winner 5-3
Kentucky -10 loser 5-4
Buffalo 26.5 winner 6-4
USC -27 loser 6-5
UTEP 44.5 loser 6-6
Colorado State -3.5 (souring) winner 7-6
USF -20 push
Iowa -12 winner winner 8-6
Umass -2.5 loser 8-7
Texas -19 loser 8-8
Totals:
Hawaii/UMASS under 62.5 loser 12-14 skipped
Bowling Green/Michigan State Under 57 winner 9-8
Ball State/Illinois Under 58 winner 10-8
Vols/Gtech Under 57 PENDING
Ohio State/Indiana Under 58 loser 10-9
FIU/UCF under 57 loser 10-10
Tulsa/OkSt Under 72 loser 10-11
terps/horns over 56 winner 11-11
scar/ncsu under 53 loser 11-12
Cal Poly/SJSU under 59 winner 12-12
Ville/purdue over 67 loser 12-13

Halftimes
2h nw -10 winner 13-14
2h nev/nw over 28 loser 13-15
2h Florida/mich under 23 winner 14-15
2h Troy/boise st under 28 winner 15-15

Strong Lean
Iowa -12.5 (My numbers say to do it and traditionally I make a lot of money on this team when they are strong along both the offensive and defensive lines, but Iowa is a tough lay at numbers like these and opponent does have a QB capable of finding backdoor- help.)

Talk Me Off Leans:
Marshall PK
Northwestern -24 (Nevada might be able to score making this a tough number for NW)
North Carolina -11.5
Bowling Green 18.5 (Might have gotten carried away with how low I valued MSU)
Indiana 20.5 (Do not like certain intangibles - Coach move, TOSU off goose egg bowl, like others like OU on deck)
ULM 27 (Numbers say so but low confidence PR on both teams makes this tough)





Good luck (Full disclosure I have a Neb -16 ticket on a tail of someone else for a little. Will add to play list if I play it for more).
 
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Add

Colorado State -3.5 (orst)
Boston College -2.5
Akron 33.5
Notre Dame -15
Utep 44.5
Kentucky -10
VT -4.5
South Florida -20
 
South Florida seems like an obvious pick but it's the opener and SJST isn't exactly a place where visiting teams thrive. I have to see how bad SJST is first.
 
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:cheers3:

Bol on opening weekend

was very excited to see this thread can't wait for the rest of the year and hope it's a great one for ya
 
Love seeing this thread come around

I know it is almost time

Will miss Judge Smails' countdown getting closer and will miss Mr Hound bitching about the internet service up in the mountains

but they will live on in the CFB CTG threads

GL VK and have a positive attitude about the best sport on earth:shake2:
 
Good luck this year Miner. Think I agree on Zips. Looking for Warren Ball to open some eyes in Happy Valley.
 
BOL as always, look forward to this thread every week. I am on CSU, BC, Irish...was leaning UTEP. Also leaning South Florida but was thinking TT over as better but undecided.
 
GL this season. Loving the new avatar.

Random on San Jose State....Was reading somewhere where their new coach, OC and DC have never, none of the 3, held those positions in the past. That can't be very common. Never heard anything like it.
 
Frank Costanza said:
GL this season. Loving the new avatar.

Random on San Jose State....Was reading somewhere where their new coach, OC and DC have never, none of the 3, held those positions in the past. That can't be very common. Never heard anything like it.
Click to expand...

It's worse than that. The HC has never even been an OC or DC (although that has worked out fine for Clemson more than once), and the OC didn't play college football.
 
Glad to see you on the Irish at the same number I am, I think I'm going to add Kentucky at some point as well.
 
Thanks fellas. I will be making some more plays today and hopefully tomorrow I will give a little reasoning to each play.
 
Add:
Purdue 26
Rutgers 30.5
Georgia -14 (most money at this number)
Nebraska -16.5 (Most money at this number)
FIU 17.5
Buffalo 26.5
Southern Cal -27
 
Hey VK - good luck this season! On the TMOs - ULM. PR aside, you see this game being a shootout? That's my feel on it. I know Memphis will score as much as they want and I think it's entirely possible ULM does the type of scoring that makes a 4 score dog pretty attractive. Pretty sure I could be involved with the total but curious to see if you believed more in the ULM offense or defense in this one?
 
It's hard to see ULM stopping Memphis a ton. But I can definitely see them scoring on Memphis, at least enough to keep the game in question early and enough to either be within the spread late or have a chance at the backdoor. It's easy to say when a team was as bad as ULM was last year but I think they have the chance to be very improved. They were really young last year but that should pay dividends this year. I like the coach who almost beat Nebraska with his fcs squad a few years ago. Their defense is just awful though. No way to sugar coat it. And their rush defense was especially bad so the frontdoor would even be a concern. I do think Evans will have a better year for them and I read the kids are maturing physically as well as the mental part of having played a lot last year. I just tend to hate being this speculative, meaning my improvement calculation isn't based on anything misleading from last year, personal viewing telling me they are better than stats show, or even particular improvement as the year progressed last year. They were also really bad on the road. It is an interesting thing, the more I look at the game, the more it seems highly unlikely that ULM would cover in a low scoring game, barring weather. But right now I am in the dark on what they might total the game at. As I mentioned, I am not too confident in my Memphis number or my ULM number compared to my average level of confidence per team, which means I question my general understanding of each team.

Funnest thing I found while capping that game was that ULM held ULL to 0 yards passing in the season finale while intercepting ULL twice and holding the Ragin Cajuns to just 240 total yards. Reread that sentence before reading the next one. They still lost by 27. .................................... It was bad weather but that is pretty amazing.
 
BTW with all the Freshmen and Sophs who played last year and with people smarter than me saying they had a good recruiting class, and with a coach that I think schemes and motivates well, the Warhawks could be a more than decent sunbelt team two years from now. Gonna suck this year again but I think they will be a lot better than last year and have some of the other worst teams in the nation on their schedule this year. Could be places to play them.

Also I am short on injury news for that game. I know Craft is done for the year for Memphis with a knee injury but I don't think that impacts their team much.
 
Would love to hear your thoughts on Rutgers. I played them last year in the opener at Washington and felt extremely, extremely stupid afterward haha.

I know it's a shitty travel spot for Wash...but still.

Best of luck on the season.
 
AliShaheed said:
Would love to hear your thoughts on Rutgers. I played them last year in the opener at Washington and felt extremely, extremely stupid afterward haha.

I know it's a shitty travel spot for Wash...but still.

Best of luck on the season.
Click to expand...

I realize that it got out of hand quickly last year but at the end of the game, Washington had 380 yards and 17 first downs. I wouldn't feel too stupid about that bet. I watched that game as well and while there was never any question at all who was the vastly superior team, you were somewhat unfortunate to lose your wager, though Washington admittedly called off the dogs in that one. Still, it appears that Rutgers was fairly competitive in that game, particularly their defense and I think their offense can generate more this game at home. Bad spot for Washington on travel and not sure how they are handling it but it has to be a plus for Rutgers as well. I will have more later on this one.
 
Matchup
i
i

1st Downs 21 17
3rd down efficiency 5-20 3-12
4th down efficiency 2-3 1-2
Total Yards 304 380
Passing 168 289
Comp-Att 24-40 20-29
Yards per pass 4.2 10.0
Interceptions thrown 1 1
Rushing 136 91
Rushing Attempts 48 30
Yards per rush 2.8 3.0
Penalties 4-35 3-30
Turnovers 3 1
Fumbles lost 2 0
Interceptions thrown 1 1
Possession 33:15 26:45
 
Doesn't tell the whole story with how fast Washington jumped on Rutgers, but hard to kick yourself over that investment other than the result
 
I actually didn't even watch the wash/rutgers game. Now that I recall, my self-loathing didnt begin in earnest until I watched Rutgers lose something like 185-0 to the combo of osu/psu/mich.

I watched those games and yikes...rutgers was a horrible squad.
 
Washington closed something like -26 in that game. Now, while a lot of us knew that Washington was going to be good last year, it was not with the certainty of this year. But is Washington better than a year ago? Maybe a little (maybe) but certainly not much. Is Rutgers? Very likely so. What is the flip of the homefield worth here? that has to be at least 7 pts. My point being that one team rates to be much improved and there isn't much room for improvement from the other team, and yet they are 4.5 point larger favorites on the road than they were at home.

Assuming Bolin gets the nod (last I saw it had not been announced yet), you get an upgrade at QB in my opinion and you get a Jerry Kill offense which he stated was simplified .... that should eat some clock and generate better results than what Rutgers was doing a year ago.
 
Best of luck this year, Kyle. I haven't gotten to those week 2 (?) games yet. Some pretty good fcs match ups in week one.
 
AliShaheed said:
I actually didn't even watch the wash/rutgers game. Now that I recall, my self-loathing didnt begin in earnest until I watched Rutgers lose something like 185-0 to the combo of osu/psu/mich.

I watched those games and yikes...rutgers was a horrible squad.
Click to expand...


233 yards per game in those though ... oh .. 233 total yards combined.
 
Why FIU ?
As you know, I much prefer underdogs but I had Central Fla circled in this one. Coach takes winless team and goes bowling in year one. They should be improved in year two. Meanwhile FIU one of the poores teams in cfb.
Central killed them a year ago and will the location change do that much ? Or is this a Davis play?
Interested in your thoughts. Thanks.
bull
 
I think last year was a tough spot for FIU against UCF. They had beaten UCF the year prior in a pretty big upset and caught a very focused and determined team. My reasoning for backing FIU is largely PR based but there are some underlying issues that I have with thinking UCF is deserving of laying these types of points to anyone (and FIU as you point out, qualifies as an anyone). After the FIU game UCF was 2-2 having beaten an FCS squad and dropping two games to power conference schools. After FIU they never outgained an opponent again. They cleared 400 yards of offense in only one of those same last 9 games when they got 402 against USF (72 yards of which were on a trick play). The strength of the team was their defense which ranked 12th in the nation in yards per play defended but they lose a ton on the defensive side of the ball and I have to think that even if that unit pans out, it wouldn't be as evident game one, though facing FIU helps. That inability to dominate anyone that wasn't FIU last year, coupled with losing the players that were the strength of their team last year just isn't what I look for in a three score favorite.


Meanwhile, while FIU stinks, I think that Butch Davis gives them a chance to be excited early in the year, they have a senior QB and in fact, have a lot of upper classmen with playing time. It is also game one, where I don't think they will just lay down. Their offense is no great shakes but they did average about 3/4 of a yard more than UCF did on offfense (granted against quite lesser competition). They bring back a lot to that side of the ball, including the QB I spoke of and they scored DD in every game last year. Again, assuming they get DD, you are asking UCF to put up a number to cover that spread. Outside of FIU, they scored 30 twice against FBS opponents. One of those games was the aforementioned USF game with 31, and the other was 37 pts against Tulane when they scored defensively 3 times. Game one they are going to be that much improved to make me want to not take three scores against them?

Now , we have the big elephant in the room ... I keep saying "outside the fiu" game and this game I took fiu. So there is assuredly some match up concerns that I should and do have but that is the case with almost any 17 point dog that I am playing. I trust that Davis will have them defending the run (the pot belly elephant in the room) a little better this time around, at least enough to keep them in the ball game with some fatties in their 3-4

http://www.fiusports.com/news/2017/...es-and-the-results-show-it.aspx?path=football

The above link also shows that there is a chance the defense and team is buying in a little bit too.

Will not be shocked if UCF destroys FIU. How could I be? But I think the panthers represent the value.
 
Colorado State is somewhat of a situational play for me and as I mentioned a few days ago, I have soured on this play as kickoff nears. I think this hfa has to be at least 4 points as they break in their new stadium but I only have CSU rated 1 PR point higher than Oregon State so we are looking at basically even teams in a vacuum in my opinion. I think they are more likely to be week 1 ready and I think they have the only truly quality unit (their offense) of the 4 units we see for a majority of the game. I am not the fan of the Oregon State coach that some others are, either. My main concerns for this game are whether CSU will be able to stop the beavers and I also have some concern that Oregon State returns so much while they seemingly started to play better at the end of last year. Not too sure what to make of Luton but the oline outsizes CSU in a bad way. Backdoor is going to be wide open.

Just getting a bad feeling this is a win but no cover ... I realize that is ridiculous thinking on a spread of this size but it is the feeling I am getting.
 
Add Totals:

Bowling Green/Michigan State Under 57
Ball State/Illinois Under 58
Vols/Gtech Under 57
Ohio State/Indiana Under 58
FIU/UCF under 57
Tulsa/OkSt Under 72
terps/horns over 56
scar/ncsu under 53
 
vk said:
I think last year was a tough spot for FIU against UCF. They had beaten UCF the year prior in a pretty big upset and caught a very focused and determined team. My reasoning for backing FIU is largely PR based but there are some underlying issues that I have with thinking UCF is deserving of laying these types of points to anyone (and FIU as you point out, qualifies as an anyone). After the FIU game UCF was 2-2 having beaten an FCS squad and dropping two games to power conference schools. After FIU they never outgained an opponent again. They cleared 400 yards of offense in only one of those same last 9 games when they got 402 against USF (72 yards of which were on a trick play). The strength of the team was their defense which ranked 12th in the nation in yards per play defended but they lose a ton on the defensive side of the ball and I have to think that even if that unit pans out, it wouldn't be as evident game one, though facing FIU helps. That inability to dominate anyone that wasn't FIU last year, coupled with losing the players that were the strength of their team last year just isn't what I look for in a three score favorite.


Meanwhile, while FIU stinks, I think that Butch Davis gives them a chance to be excited early in the year, they have a senior QB and in fact, have a lot of upper classmen with playing time. It is also game one, where I don't think they will just lay down. Their offense is no great shakes but they did average about 3/4 of a yard more than UCF did on offfense (granted against quite lesser competition). They bring back a lot to that side of the ball, including the QB I spoke of and they scored DD in every game last year. Again, assuming they get DD, you are asking UCF to put up a number to cover that spread. Outside of FIU, they scored 30 twice against FBS opponents. One of those games was the aforementioned USF game with 31, and the other was 37 pts against Tulane when they scored defensively 3 times. Game one they are going to be that much improved to make me want to not take three scores against them?

Now , we have the big elephant in the room ... I keep saying "outside the fiu" game and this game I took fiu. So there is assuredly some match up concerns that I should and do have but that is the case with almost any 17 point dog that I am playing. I trust that Davis will have them defending the run (the pot belly elephant in the room) a little better this time around, at least enough to keep them in the ball game with some fatties in their 3-4

http://www.fiusports.com/news/2017/...es-and-the-results-show-it.aspx?path=football

The above link also shows that there is a chance the defense and team is buying in a little bit too.

Will not be shocked if UCF destroys FIU. How could I be? But I think the panthers represent the value.
Click to expand...

Just for the record, it appears I left out the ECU game where the knights scored 47 points on 373 yards.
 
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