time to post my regular season wins

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Regular Season Wins ( To be added to final record at conclusion of regular season )

West Virginia under 4.5 wins -135

Virginia Tech over 8 wins -110

Penn State Under 7.5 wins -105 ( double bet )

Northwestern over 7.5 wins +120 (sort of personally hope they don't make a bowl but money is money)

Missouri under 7.5 wins +113

Mississippi State over 7.5 wins +104

Ole Miss over 7.5 -170

Minnesota under 6.5 -148

Louisville under 8 -115

Arizona State under 7.5 +109

Arizona over 6.5 -160
 
With you on Mizzou, Ole Miss, and Zona St...curious for thoughts on Louisville? Can I ask for thoughts or is that not allowed?
 
I am just not a believer in their unit. Coach is an upgrade long term ( If anything can be long term with Petrino ) but I am not so sure about the short term. They lose a lot of the hard working talent on the defensive side of the ball and then there is the QB who is gone....

There is a chance they catch Clemson as a tired team but I think it is more likely they face a battle tested team that has faced uga unc and fsu already and ville will not only fall into the class relief category but Clemson could very well be hungry for that game ( if 0-3 out of those 3 ). The qb situation for the tigers should be settling in by then ... just think that game is a tall order for ville. I think they are outclassed by fsu and stand little chance to beat ND in south bend, though I think ville benefits from playing them late in the year. If they win one of those three, I could be in some trouble not only from the underdog win perspective but because it probably means they are better than I have given them credit for .... but if they lose those three..

at cuse on a Friday night
at bc in likely cold and/or wet weather
at uva ( I will almost assuredly be on cavs with the pts there )
and still have Miami at home and Kentucky at the worst possible time if Cats need 1 more.

First year in a new conference means more difficult preparation and new logistics.

I could post the pr lines, corresponding ml value and simulation results for the math portion ... but it all stems from my having ville NOT in my top 25 in PR
 
hard to argue with any of those. psu especially.
what's your take on ga tech? front 7 looks rough. they had a hard enough time getting stops last year, but now attachou is gone. whitehead ineligible. lost 3 other dl to this and that. mlb quayshawn nealy is darn good but secondary is green and slow.
not sure justin thomas will be in one piece come va tech week 4. he's unbelievably fast but way to small (5-10/185) to take too many hits. especially when johnson says he's going full triple option again. no hybrid shotgun stuff. thomas doesn't impress me at all as a passer even compared to other triple qbs, nor does he have great targets to throw to. the dropoff to byerly is a significant. line is ordinary. backs lack power. snoddy can really scoot.
obviously i'm on the under. they'll could sneak up on someone as option teams do, but i don't see 7 wins. gl to you
 
clowncar said:
I am just not a believer in their unit. Coach is an upgrade long term ( If anything can be long term with Petrino ) but I am not so sure about the short term. They lose a lot of the hard working talent on the defensive side of the ball and then there is the QB who is gone....

There is a chance they catch Clemson as a tired team but I think it is more likely they face a battle tested team that has faced uga unc and fsu already and ville will not only fall into the class relief category but Clemson could very well be hungry for that game ( if 0-3 out of those 3 ). The qb situation for the tigers should be settling in by then ... just think that game is a tall order for ville. I think they are outclassed by fsu and stand little chance to beat ND in south bend, though I think ville benefits from playing them late in the year. If they win one of those three, I could be in some trouble not only from the underdog win perspective but because it probably means they are better than I have given them credit for .... but if they lose those three..

at cuse on a Friday night
at bc in likely cold and/or wet weather
at uva ( I will almost assuredly be on cavs with the pts there )
and still have Miami at home and Kentucky at the worst possible time if Cats need 1 more.

First year in a new conference means more difficult preparation and new logistics.

I could post the pr lines, corresponding ml value and simulation results for the math portion ... but it all stems from my having ville NOT in my top 25 in PR
Click to expand...

I don't disagree that they'll likely finish 0-3 in the FSU/Clemson/ND games, but you'll need two more L's to win the bet

Miami the best possibility
Cuse is a tricky spot and a team that has given them fits in recent years, but still likely laying a TD or so
BC will be horrendous, should be laying close to DD there
UVA another tricky one but they'll be laying a TD or more
Petrino owns UK and it'd take a pretty massive jump this year for the Cats to beat them

I dunno, seems like you'll really need a Canes W in Week 1 if you wanna have a shot at winning...although karma is bound to bite Jurich & UL in the ass on this one so maybe the Cards will just be god awful this year
 
dickydunn said:
hard to argue with any of those. psu especially.
what's your take on ga tech? front 7 looks rough. they had a hard enough time getting stops last year, but now attachou is gone. whitehead ineligible. lost 3 other dl to this and that. mlb quayshawn nealy is darn good but secondary is green and slow.
not sure justin thomas will be in one piece come va tech week 4. he's unbelievably fast but way to small (5-10/185) to take too many hits. especially when johnson says he's going full triple option again. no hybrid shotgun stuff. thomas doesn't impress me at all as a passer even compared to other triple qbs, nor does he have great targets to throw to. the dropoff to byerly is a significant. line is ordinary. backs lack power. snoddy can really scoot.
obviously i'm on the under. they'll could sneak up on someone as option teams do, but i don't see 7 wins. gl to you
Click to expand...

Lowest they have been in my PR in a long time. Largely for reasons you mention. But they have what looks like a huge upgrade at QB for the system and that can make a world of difference in the system. Not sure the venture away from the traditional option suited GT or Johnson well but he had little choice given the lack of a true runner at the position.

I laid off largely because of their home schedule .... and even though I think he has made some errors in recent years ... the HC is not someone I like going against as a general rule. But like I said, I largely agree with everything you wrote.
 
lindetrain said:
I don't disagree that they'll likely finish 0-3 in the FSU/Clemson/ND games, but you'll need two more L's to win the bet

Miami the best possibility
Cuse is a tricky spot and a team that has given them fits in recent years, but still likely laying a TD or so
BC will be horrendous, should be laying close to DD there
UVA another tricky one but they'll be laying a TD or more
Petrino owns UK and it'd take a pretty massive jump this year for the Cats to beat them

I dunno, seems like you'll really need a Canes W in Week 1 if you wanna have a shot at winning...although karma is bound to bite Jurich & UL in the ass on this one so maybe the Cards will just be god awful this year
Click to expand...

Again, I just don't think they are very talented and think they are in transition and think they lose too much year over year and think they run into not just a harder schedule but a conference change... and tempted by week 1. I just have them valued differently than market ... so even though I don't disagree that you are gonna see numbers in the area you mention above, I don't think they are accurate to the product we will see on the field.

I probably lay off week one Miami only because it is hard to back them off the bowl performance against the same team even though the situation is VERY different. That is a lot of disparity to overcome last game to first game.

I will be on UVA against them for sure though.

But if they do lose to Miami .. I would be shocked if I didn't win the bet.
 
clowncar said:
I like Iowa some.
Click to expand...

think I wrote it up after bowl games . schedule is soft as a pillow and only tough ones are at home , late.. I'm down on Wisky and Nebraska keeps losing defensive players to injury (another yesterday )
pounder for me for several reasons but schedule is certainly one of them
 
clowncar said:
Lowest they have been in my PR in a long time. Largely for reasons you mention. But they have what looks like a huge upgrade at QB for the system and that can make a world of difference in the system. Not sure the venture away from the traditional option suited GT or Johnson well but he had little choice given the lack of a true runner at the position.

I laid off largely because of their home schedule .... and even though I think he has made some errors in recent years ... the HC is not someone I like going against as a general rule. But like I said, I largely agree with everything you wrote.
Click to expand...

thanks. agree completely. if thomas goes down they're in for a disaster. byerly doesn't stand a chance. kinda liked ty griffin but he tranferred to oregon. after that it's trues and walk ons.
 
tee*dub said:
think I wrote it up after bowl games . schedule is soft as a pillow and only tough ones are at home , late.. I'm down on Wisky and Nebraska keeps losing defensive players to injury (another yesterday )
pounder for me for several reasons but schedule is certainly one of them
Click to expand...

Really like Nebraska before the injuries and Wisconsin is lower on my PR than the last few years so agree there. And lol at toughest road game being at Maryland.

Doubt many people realize that Iowa finished 6th in total defense last year and was 1 of only 9 teams to give up under 4,000 yards. Probably favored in 8 games.

I think the Nebraska injuries hurt them more than it will help Iowa at the time they play. That is the season finale and by then the guys playing those spots will have some game time experience ... also they have been losing secondary guys and Iowa is gonna do the ground and pound so not sure it comes into play for that game as much as some others.

I could be coaxed into Iowa rsw over
 
When Iowa is favored and DD on several of those, what do they do?? You said it- ground and pound. Best offensive tackle in CFB and a fullback playing tailback. They will be a cover problem on those IMO but pretty safe SU win on at least 7. Tricky ones are at home. Would love to discuss more as I have pretty extensive notes
 
Schedule is a dream, but I'm still not really sold on this Iowa team. Lost their 3 leading tacklers, were outgained in 5 of 8 conf games last year. Don't trust the coach or the OC. I guess if you were to make lines now, you'd have to have em fav in 11 games, but how much of a favorite could you really make them in these games below? I don't think anyone would really be shocked if Iowa St or UNI gave them a game either.

at Pitt
at Maryland
NW
at Minny
at Illy
Nebraska
 
If there's one thing we all know about Iowa, it's that they're great when nothing is expected of them, and they always shit the bed when something is...
 
Like the WVA UNDER play. Holgorsen has about a 30 percent chance of being the Mountaineers' HC at this time next year in my rough estimation. As far as Iowa, their defense will probably allow somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 more points per game this season with the personnel losses. Plus, as has been pointed out here, OC Greg Davis is not one of the game's great innovators IMO and the offense will only go as far as a grind-it-out run game will take them.

Good luck,
Paul
 
Seeing news tonight that Mark will transfer from NW to be closer to family. He was suspended for the first 2 games anyways. Does that impact your NW wager at all?
 
P-Unit said:
Seeing news tonight that Mark will transfer from NW to be closer to family. He was suspended for the first 2 games anyways. Does that impact your NW wager at all?
Click to expand...

yup. I would lay off. I will seek ways to get off of it personally ........ if this is true and no reason to disbelieve you
 
Not going to eat more than ten cents of juice on getting off that nw rsw bet. Currently not in las vegas and cannot accomplish that with available outs. It will probably keep getting worse .....

This is what I get for backing a team trying to ruin the sport.
 
ASU fade has to do with their schedule and my distaste for their defense. They don't have a real game until late September so I suppose they have a chance to "get right" with some experience by the time the real schedule starts but I wouldn't hold my breath. I won't be surprised if Colorado puts up some pts on them. At usc, At Washington, At Oregon St and at Arizona ( much better than Aztecs on paper ) is a pretty tough road schedule and UCLA and ND at home are tough. Utah and Washinton St no gimme ... If they get 8 wins with that schedule they have accomplished something.
 
i could be wrong but i think asu has the best coach in the conf. jury still out on CP in a real conf. maybe mora too, not sure. def take him over all the rest.
 
My favorite gameweek prep and gameday coach is in that conference and hasn't been mentioned either .... if he could recruit better it would be insane.
 
clowncar said:
My favorite gameweek prep and gameday coach is in that conference and hasn't been mentioned either .... if he could recruit better it would be insane.
Click to expand...


Mike Riley? Or maybe Kyle Whittingham? I think highly of both of them for prep and gameday.
 
cubsker said:
Schedule is a dream, but I'm still not really sold on this Iowa team. Lost their 3 leading tacklers, were outgained in 5 of 8 conf games last year. Don't trust the coach or the OC. I guess if you were to make lines now, you'd have to have em fav in 11 games, but how much of a favorite could you really make them in these games below? I don't think anyone would really be shocked if Iowa St or UNI gave them a game either.

at Pitt
at Maryland
NW
at Minny
at Illy
Nebraska
Click to expand...

ya cub, when you graduate all your linebackers you will lose most of your tackles. Defensively they will be very good if not exceptional in front four. Secondary wil be sound but not great at all (who on schedule has dynamic passing game?) linebackers ? Who knows. They have division I players and with weak schedule and great up front talent I think they will be ok.. I have Iowa currently favored in all 12 games. Not much debate in that I don't think. Many small chalk late in schedule however. Gl
 
West Virginia under 4.5 wins -135
0-1 but looked good in defeat
Virginia Tech over 8 wins -110
1-0 beat the lesser
Penn State Under 7.5 wins -105 ( double bet )
1-0 ugh .. ficken 4-4 .. deserved the win .. some young talent. bigten looks bad .. trouble.
Northwestern over 7.5 wins +120 (sort of personally hope they don't make a bowl but money is money)
bums .. 0-1 ... never back unions, costs you money and ruins an industry every time.
Missouri under 7.5 wins +113
won and looked decent 1-0
Mississippi State over 7.5 wins +104
won and looked good 1-0

Ole Miss over 7.5 -170
won but looked average 1-0
Minnesota under 6.5 -148
1-0 handled eiu
Louisville under 8 -115
pending

Arizona State under 7.5 +109
won 1-0 vs the lesser
Arizona over 6.5 -160
won 1-0 looked decent
 
bad week 1 .. psu win costly and entitled bums got ass whooped by cal. That one is all but dead as they are heartless wimps.
 
tee*dub said:
ya cub, when you graduate all your linebackers you will lose most of your tackles. Defensively they will be very good if not exceptional in front four. Secondary wil be sound but not great at all (who on schedule has dynamic passing game?) linebackers ? Who knows. They have division I players and with weak schedule and great up front talent I think they will be ok.. I have Iowa currently favored in all 12 games. Not much debate in that I don't think. Many small chalk late in schedule however. Gl
Click to expand...

outgained by Northern Iowa. Sounds about right. I couldn't favor Iowa in game number 12 right now.
 
West Virginia under 4.5 wins -135
1-1 , last week an easy win over fcs. Team looks better than I expected and with TTech looking down, this weeks game at terps looms big to the season wins bet.
Virginia Tech over 8 wins -110
2-0 including a win over tosu last week. No way this bet loses from here.
Penn State Under 7.5 wins -105 ( double bet )
2-0 and a road favorite at Rutgers. They have umass the following week ... Michigan looks down, nw looks down, and even tosu is banged up... this game is huge ... 4-0 makes for a tough cash later.
Northwestern over 7.5 wins +120 (sort of personally hope they don't make a bowl but money is money)
Well the good news is they deserve to be 0-2. Team is a wreck right now.
Missouri under 7.5 wins +113
Another bad looking .... 2-0 after handling a Toledo game that I thought had a good chance of beating them. Schedule still tough though.
Mississippi State over 7.5 wins +104
2-0 but didn't look great last week against uab. When I played this I thought TAMU would be way down.
Ole Miss over 7.5 -170
ull Memphis and Presbyterian still on the schedule. 2-0 with wins over vandy and boise. got to like it.
Minnesota under 6.5 -148
2-0 and worrisome with top of the conference down they are liable to get an upset somewhere.
Louisville under 8 -115
2-0 and cuse, nscu and bc all look worse than I expected. seems as likely that they upset a big favorite as lose to one of these bum teams.
Arizona State under 7.5 +109
2-0 and look great. At this point I will be surprised if they get less than 7 wins.
Arizona over 6.5 -160
2-0 ... need some refinement but look ok.



All in all it looks awful early into the year on these
 
West Virginia under 4.5 wins -135
2-1 Hard to imagine I don't lose this bet .. big road win at terps with last second fg
Virginia Tech over 8 wins -110
2-1 follow up the unexpected win with an unexpected loss.
Penn State Under 7.5 wins -105 ( double bet )
3-0 come from behind late win and earlier in the week got the bowl ban lifted. sigh
Northwestern over 7.5 wins +120 (sort of personally hope they don't make a bowl but money is money)
Well the good news is they deserve to be 0-2. Team is a wreck right now.
Missouri under 7.5 wins +113 3-0 and playing like champs.

Mississippi State over 7.5 wins +104 3-0

Ole Miss over 7.5 -170
3-0
Minnesota under 6.5 -148
2-1
Louisville under 8 -115
2-1 with the loss to Virginia. Clemson, fsu, nd still to come and they will have to beat one to beat me while sweeping the rest.
Arizona State under 7.5 +109
3-0 and look great. At this point I will be surprised if they get less than 7 wins.
Arizona over 6.5 -160
3-0 ... need some refinement but look ok.​
 
West Virginia under 4.5 wins -135
2-2 Hard to imagine I don't lose this bet .. ou takes care of them... keep the dream alive
Virginia Tech over 8 wins -110
2-2 just have a bad head football coach .. not much else to it.
Penn State Under 7.5 wins -105 ( double bet )
4-0 .... sigh
Northwestern over 7.5 wins +120 (sort of personally hope they don't make a bowl but money is money)
Well the good news is they deserve to be 1-2. Team is a wreck right now.
Missouri under 7.5 wins +113 3-1 and a nice loss as a dd favorite at home

Mississippi State over 7.5 wins +104 4-0 boom. win at lsu

Ole Miss over 7.5 -170
3-0
Minnesota under 6.5 -148
3-1 sigh
Louisville under 8 -115
3-1 Clemson, fsu, nd still to come and they will have to beat one to beat me while sweeping the rest.
Arizona State under 7.5 +109
3-0 and look great. At this point I will be surprised if they get less than 7 wins.
Arizona over 6.5 -160 4
4-0 ... need some refinement but look ok... wow miracle win

looking like a losing year of futures most likely
 
clowncar said:
West Virginia under 4.5 wins -135
2-2 Hard to imagine I don't lose this bet .. ou takes care of them... keep the dream alive
Virginia Tech over 8 wins -110
2-2 just have a bad head football coach .. not much else to it.
Penn State Under 7.5 wins -105 ( double bet )
4-0 .... sigh
Northwestern over 7.5 wins +120 (sort of personally hope they don't make a bowl but money is money)
Well the good news is they deserve to be 1-2. Team is a wreck right now.
Missouri under 7.5 wins +113 3-1 and a nice loss as a dd favorite at home

Mississippi State over 7.5 wins +104 4-0 boom. win at lsu

Ole Miss over 7.5 -170
3-0
Minnesota under 6.5 -148
3-1 sigh
Louisville under 8 -115
3-1 Clemson, fsu, nd still to come and they will have to beat one to beat me while sweeping the rest.
Arizona State under 7.5 +109
3-0 and look great. At this point I will be surprised if they get less than 7 wins.
Arizona over 6.5 -160 4
4-0 ... need some refinement but look ok... wow miracle win

looking like a losing year of futures most likely
Click to expand...

Minny gonna struggle the rest of the way with no good QB play. At least you don't have Cal u2.5 like me. Should be 3-0 but they will get another W so it's a loser for me.
 
West Virginia under 4.5 wins -135
2-2 Just a bad bet.

Virginia Tech over 8 wins -110
3-2 Offense will make it tough for them to get beyond 7 wins.

Penn State Under 7.5 wins -105 ( double bet )
4-1 Hopefully exposed but the conference is bad enough they can find wins.

Northwestern over 7.5 wins +120
2-2 and perhaps righted the ship. With NW plus the pts, the under, nw rsw over and psu rsw under that was a great game.

Missouri under 7.5 wins +113 3-1 and a nice loss as a dd favorite at home
4-1 and off a win I thought for sure was a loss preseason. Bad bet.


Mississippi State over 7.5 wins +104
4-0, bye week for extra tamu prep time.

Ole Miss over 7.5 -170
4-0, I had them over rated but they are getting the job done.

Minnesota under 6.5 -148
4-1 devastating win over Michigan. fml.

Louisville under 8 -115
4-1 boxscore better than scoreboard against wake ... but I have to think I am in good shape here.

Arizona State under 7.5 +109
3-1 defense bad... backup qb not a huge drop off but is a drop off.

Arizona over 6.5 -160
4-0 but about to get rolled.
 
West Virginia under 4.5 wins -135
3-2 Looked good again
4-2 Baylor today

Virginia Tech over 8 wins -110
4-2 Todays win more a product of opponent
4-3 hilarity

Penn State Under 7.5 wins -105 ( double bet )
4-1 had a bye
4-2 ohio state today.
Northwestern over 7.5 wins +120
3-2 nice win over Wisconsin.
3-3 special teams choke. put a fork in this one

Missouri under 7.5 wins +113
4-1 bye and Bad bet.
4-2 florida today

Mississippi State over 7.5 wins +104
5-0, impressive win.
6-0 how do I lose this? only by qb injury

Ole Miss over 7.5 -170
5-0, bama gift wrap today should secure that one
6-0 how do I lose this? only by healthy qb
Minnesota under 6.5 -148
4-1
5-1 purdue .. about to be 6-1

Louisville under 8 -115
5-1 wow they are bad. Still might reach 8 though
5-2 play half of ncstates team today

Arizona State under 7.5 +109
4-1 Hail Mary win at usc ... story of my day really
if they beat Stanford today put a fork in it

Arizona over 6.5 -160
5-0 win over Oregon. Surely they find two wins from here
5-1
 
Last edited:
Yikes.

Zoo is a weird ass team. I see 2 losses and 2 they could very well lose so time on that one.
 
West Virginia under 4.5 wins -135
5-2 loser seven games in. wow.

Virginia Tech over 8 wins -110
4-3 hilarity might be able to find 8 with a win against miamifl as they still have duke and wake on the schedule. but ugh

Penn State Under 7.5 wins -105 ( double bet )
4-2 ohio state on deck. looks good as they will have to beat either tosu, Maryland or mich st to beat me while sweeping the rest.
Northwestern over 7.5 wins +120
3-4. heartless kids.
Missouri under 7.5 wins +113
5-2 with the easy part of the schedule in front of them. likely loser.

Mississippi State over 7.5 wins +104
6-0 with utmartin and vandy both still on the schedule. gonna win unless a plane crash occurs.

Ole Miss over 7.5 -170
7-0 and still have presbyterian ( aka average ooc opponent for sec ) on the schedule. winner.

Minnesota under 6.5 -148
6-1 wow. coach of the year material. still have an easy win on the schedule so bye bye money.

Louisville under 8 -115
5-2 should be hard to lose.

Arizona State under 7.5 +109
5-1 horrible bet.

Arizona over 6.5 -160
5-1

4-6-1 the most likely outcome ..some juiced bad too.
 
West Virginia under 4.5 wins -135
6-3 loser seven games in. wow.

Virginia Tech over 8 wins -110
4-5 -- and I thought the best teams in the conference were fsu, Clemson, vt and unc in the preseason. whoops

Penn State Under 7.5 wins -105 ( double bet ) 4-4 three winnable games and then msu .. looks good.

Northwestern over 7.5 wins +120
3-5. heartless kids. So heartless. They think they should be paid for what they are doing? sheesh

Missouri under 7.5 wins +113
7-2 with the easy part of the schedule in front of them. TAMU, Vols, Arkansas ... This team is 7-2 .. I don't want to hear about sec anymore.

Mississippi State over 7.5 wins +104
8-0 finally a winner

Ole Miss over 7.5 -170
7-2 and still have presbyterian ( aka average ooc opponent for sec ) on the schedule. winner.

Minnesota under 6.5 -148
6-2 wow. tosu, at Nebraska at Wisconsin .. could be interesting.

Louisville under 8 -115
6-3 would have to win at bc, at nd and vs their rival uk to get to nine wins .. would seem the push is most probably outcome and I wasn't impressed with ndame tonight. coin flip

Arizona State under 7.5 +109
7-1 horrible bet. Bad schedule analysis on my part. They played softies while their defense was horrid and it came around. all three remaining are losable but they wont lose them.

Arizona over 6.5 -160 6-2 with four games left. going to win.
​
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

steponaduck
NCAA FB RSW DISCUSSION
2 3
Replies
103
Views
3K
steponaduck
steponaduck
steponaduck
NCAA FB WEEK 9
Replies
10
Views
475
steponaduck
steponaduck
B.A.R.
RSW'S Discussion -2022
Replies
26
Views
1K
KJ
KJ
steponaduck
NCAA FOOTBALL WEEK 1
Replies
4
Views
437
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
steponaduck
NCAA FB WEEK 2
Replies
34
Views
1K
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
Back
Top