RetroVK
This claim is disputed
season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 11-9 +0.27 units
dogs 14-12 +4.89 units
overs 1-3 -2.05 units
unders 5-1-1 +3.83 units
ok i like a lot tuesday
toronto -135 and under 9 -- see a very similar outcome as i saw occurring yesterday. Another strong righty to go along with the stats i posted the other day and while they hit a bunch of singles off mcgowan yesterday, they hardly smashed him. plus i really like what marcum does on the road... he really gets up for these games. Here are his road starts last year
at philly 6 innings 4 hits 2 er
at bal 7 innings 6 hits 4 er
at dodgers 6.2 innings 7 hits 0 er
at minny 8 innings 6 hits 1 er
at seattle 6.2 innings 6 hits 0 er
at boston 6 innings 7 hits 3 er
at cws 8 innings 2 hits 1 er
at kc 6.2 innings 1 hit 0 er
at boston 5 innings 5 hits 2 er
at yankees 3 innings 5 hits 1 er
I bolded the game at baltimore... all four runs allowed in that game came on two out homeruns and 3 of them came on a homer by tejeda. HE isnt in baltimore anymore. The current baltimore bats go just .222 off of him. So i like him to shut down what as i have stated before is what i consider a weak orioles lineup. Now , I also have a little bit of fear when the bluejays face right handed starters. Trachsel is a nice little groundball pitcher who can get himself out of jams via the double play and with all of the slow guys in the toronto lineup you would expect them to turn one or two in this game. With that said the bluejays do hit him half decently with a .277 average .... and thomas , overbay and stairs all see him very well. So I would expect the jays to get 4-5 runs here. Not leaving much margin for error but given marcums stuff and his ability to bring it on the road i have some confidence. We also have an ace in the hole as Wendelstedt is umping the game and he sometimes has a 2-2 count after a team has attempted an intentional walk on four pitches. Bet makes sense to me and i am going with it. If the orioles beat the crap out of marcum then oh well ... tip my hat to them.
Rangers -120 -- There are not too many guys in baseball right now that are pitching better than kevin millwood at this time. I love aces in these spots .... the rangers have now dropped four consecutive home games. Guerrero hits him hard though .. as he does just about every ranger they put on the mound. But Millwood owns everyone that bats before guerrero so there likely wont be too many on when vlad gets to bat .. and you can pitch around him a little bit. Anderson has also hit him decently but he isnt the same guy anymore , really just not a very good bat in that spot. Dustin Moseley is not as good a pitcher my friends. He got rocked by the rangers already once this year and they bat .321 against him as a team. Also this is another of those situations that i love where one pitcher is going to give you innings and the other is not. Moseley doesnt pitch long innings and even though i like the angel bullpen a bit , they did use some guys the last few games and might be taxed a bit I look for millwood to do what aces do and provide the stop that they need to end this little home losing streak. have to love the price here since i make the rangers this much on neutral field with these two pitchers starting. Value.
Colorado +115 --The padres , if not the worst , are going to be one of the worst hitting teams vs right handed pitching this year and they have not seen jimenez well at all in the past. Granted its only 33 AB but they have only managed two hits off the guy and they were singles. The rockies really havent seen Wolf in a long time, which is a concern and wolf pitched well in his two starts this year , though one of those was vs the giants. I think Colorado has gotten out of its hitting slump and can scratch 4 or 5 across against the padres and that should be all they need.
A's/cws under 9.5 -- two teams that struggle against left handed pitchers not named Sabathia. The A's played sabathia twice and hit him well both times and the white sox played him once and rocked his world. I think it is safe to say that sabathia is not in form right now. These two teams were the two worst hitting teams vs lefties last year in the american league ... and even with the sabathia games these two teams are once again failing the test vs lefties. The A's are batting somewhere around .230 and the white sox are batting somewhere aroung .250 or so( throw out sabathia and the numbers are too ugly to look at ). It gets better for us ....The hitters in this game have a total of 10 AB against the opposing pitchers. yup 10. HUGE edge here for us. Also , danks pitched well in his only start at home vs the A's last year pitching 6 innings and giving up 1 er. So Danks may have some confidence here and he is looking to bounce back from a poor home start last time he pitched. Danks was just 3-6 or so at home last year as well .... So tempted to take the A's here but they have been traveling awhile now and the situation might be a bit better for a cws team that has started well. Gonna lay off the side .... dont see why either team gets to 6 runs in this one and certainly cant fathom both of them doing it .... it is an american league day game though ...umpire is pretty neutral as well. I'll bite.
seattle -130 and over 9 -- alrighty .... Bale takes the hill for the royals and i like this matchup for the mariners bats. They should bat lefties well again this year and were one of the best vs lefties last year. Off to a slower start this year but that should improve. Seattle just saw some nasty shit from greinke tonight so i think the ball looks just a tad bigger to them tomorrow. Batista is a hit or miss guy. Think his stuff is decent but he lacks control and get himself into some jams. This could be a problem as the projected umpire for the game has one of the tightest strike zones around. With a few gimmes i think the royals score enough to help this go over the number. Not a fan of the current state of either bullpen so we have that going for us too which is nice when we have an umpire that makes the starters pitchcounts very high. Lots of base runners equals lots of runs and thats what i see here , with the mariners being the last team standing.
i also have leans on the following ...
harang -- Another of those spots where i like an Ace to come up big for his team. He likes wrigley as well. Not completely sold on dempster yet. Reds hitting and managing leave a lot to be desired right now though.
brewers -- Think Bush matches up well with cards and think brewers match up well vs looper ... but not sure the price is right for the brewers against a righty on the road. likely passing.
boston -- just think byrd is done. even when he is right he doesnt pitch well at home. Byrd did have two good games vs the bosox last year though.
tigers -- the tiger has awakened. beware this team could go on a huge run now. twins lineup is terrible. prefer to bet tigers against lefties though and maybe they should show me two wins in a row before i look to back them again laying this kind of chalk
pirates -- nice little price here for a team that is hot playing vs a team that is not. Pirates are simply playing better ball right now than the dodgers.
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 11-9 +0.27 units
dogs 14-12 +4.89 units
overs 1-3 -2.05 units
unders 5-1-1 +3.83 units
ok i like a lot tuesday
toronto -135 and under 9 -- see a very similar outcome as i saw occurring yesterday. Another strong righty to go along with the stats i posted the other day and while they hit a bunch of singles off mcgowan yesterday, they hardly smashed him. plus i really like what marcum does on the road... he really gets up for these games. Here are his road starts last year
at philly 6 innings 4 hits 2 er
at bal 7 innings 6 hits 4 er
at dodgers 6.2 innings 7 hits 0 er
at minny 8 innings 6 hits 1 er
at seattle 6.2 innings 6 hits 0 er
at boston 6 innings 7 hits 3 er
at cws 8 innings 2 hits 1 er
at kc 6.2 innings 1 hit 0 er
at boston 5 innings 5 hits 2 er
at yankees 3 innings 5 hits 1 er
I bolded the game at baltimore... all four runs allowed in that game came on two out homeruns and 3 of them came on a homer by tejeda. HE isnt in baltimore anymore. The current baltimore bats go just .222 off of him. So i like him to shut down what as i have stated before is what i consider a weak orioles lineup. Now , I also have a little bit of fear when the bluejays face right handed starters. Trachsel is a nice little groundball pitcher who can get himself out of jams via the double play and with all of the slow guys in the toronto lineup you would expect them to turn one or two in this game. With that said the bluejays do hit him half decently with a .277 average .... and thomas , overbay and stairs all see him very well. So I would expect the jays to get 4-5 runs here. Not leaving much margin for error but given marcums stuff and his ability to bring it on the road i have some confidence. We also have an ace in the hole as Wendelstedt is umping the game and he sometimes has a 2-2 count after a team has attempted an intentional walk on four pitches. Bet makes sense to me and i am going with it. If the orioles beat the crap out of marcum then oh well ... tip my hat to them.
Rangers -120 -- There are not too many guys in baseball right now that are pitching better than kevin millwood at this time. I love aces in these spots .... the rangers have now dropped four consecutive home games. Guerrero hits him hard though .. as he does just about every ranger they put on the mound. But Millwood owns everyone that bats before guerrero so there likely wont be too many on when vlad gets to bat .. and you can pitch around him a little bit. Anderson has also hit him decently but he isnt the same guy anymore , really just not a very good bat in that spot. Dustin Moseley is not as good a pitcher my friends. He got rocked by the rangers already once this year and they bat .321 against him as a team. Also this is another of those situations that i love where one pitcher is going to give you innings and the other is not. Moseley doesnt pitch long innings and even though i like the angel bullpen a bit , they did use some guys the last few games and might be taxed a bit I look for millwood to do what aces do and provide the stop that they need to end this little home losing streak. have to love the price here since i make the rangers this much on neutral field with these two pitchers starting. Value.
Colorado +115 --The padres , if not the worst , are going to be one of the worst hitting teams vs right handed pitching this year and they have not seen jimenez well at all in the past. Granted its only 33 AB but they have only managed two hits off the guy and they were singles. The rockies really havent seen Wolf in a long time, which is a concern and wolf pitched well in his two starts this year , though one of those was vs the giants. I think Colorado has gotten out of its hitting slump and can scratch 4 or 5 across against the padres and that should be all they need.
A's/cws under 9.5 -- two teams that struggle against left handed pitchers not named Sabathia. The A's played sabathia twice and hit him well both times and the white sox played him once and rocked his world. I think it is safe to say that sabathia is not in form right now. These two teams were the two worst hitting teams vs lefties last year in the american league ... and even with the sabathia games these two teams are once again failing the test vs lefties. The A's are batting somewhere around .230 and the white sox are batting somewhere aroung .250 or so( throw out sabathia and the numbers are too ugly to look at ). It gets better for us ....The hitters in this game have a total of 10 AB against the opposing pitchers. yup 10. HUGE edge here for us. Also , danks pitched well in his only start at home vs the A's last year pitching 6 innings and giving up 1 er. So Danks may have some confidence here and he is looking to bounce back from a poor home start last time he pitched. Danks was just 3-6 or so at home last year as well .... So tempted to take the A's here but they have been traveling awhile now and the situation might be a bit better for a cws team that has started well. Gonna lay off the side .... dont see why either team gets to 6 runs in this one and certainly cant fathom both of them doing it .... it is an american league day game though ...umpire is pretty neutral as well. I'll bite.
seattle -130 and over 9 -- alrighty .... Bale takes the hill for the royals and i like this matchup for the mariners bats. They should bat lefties well again this year and were one of the best vs lefties last year. Off to a slower start this year but that should improve. Seattle just saw some nasty shit from greinke tonight so i think the ball looks just a tad bigger to them tomorrow. Batista is a hit or miss guy. Think his stuff is decent but he lacks control and get himself into some jams. This could be a problem as the projected umpire for the game has one of the tightest strike zones around. With a few gimmes i think the royals score enough to help this go over the number. Not a fan of the current state of either bullpen so we have that going for us too which is nice when we have an umpire that makes the starters pitchcounts very high. Lots of base runners equals lots of runs and thats what i see here , with the mariners being the last team standing.
i also have leans on the following ...
harang -- Another of those spots where i like an Ace to come up big for his team. He likes wrigley as well. Not completely sold on dempster yet. Reds hitting and managing leave a lot to be desired right now though.
brewers -- Think Bush matches up well with cards and think brewers match up well vs looper ... but not sure the price is right for the brewers against a righty on the road. likely passing.
boston -- just think byrd is done. even when he is right he doesnt pitch well at home. Byrd did have two good games vs the bosox last year though.
tigers -- the tiger has awakened. beware this team could go on a huge run now. twins lineup is terrible. prefer to bet tigers against lefties though and maybe they should show me two wins in a row before i look to back them again laying this kind of chalk
pirates -- nice little price here for a team that is hot playing vs a team that is not. Pirates are simply playing better ball right now than the dodgers.
