Time to post my friday april 18 baseball

[RetroVK]

<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 13-11 +0.07 units
dogs 18-15 +7.12units
overs 2-3-1 -1.00 units
unders 7-2-1 +4.68 units


hehe that was an interesting day on thursday. i had one stretch of time where the two teams i had money on went 30 combined innings or so with 1 run produced,,,, hilarious. good news is ... i won one of those two games and profited on the split. but lets get to task at hand. havent had time to fully cap all the games as i was distracted by the short game in san diego ... here are the leans on the short list ... i might not have time to cap all these so may end up with very little action.

pirates +125 -- one of the best kept secrets in baseball last year was that the pirates hit lefties pretty good. but they are playing bad baseball and the cubbies have seen stud pitcher snell pretty good. like aces in these spots but dont trust the pirates. again very preliminary capping only so far on this one.

indians -115 -- liriano is trying to get into form , cliff lee is already there. lee also owns the twins bats ... disparity between the quality of these two lineups is high

hamels/santana under 8 -- well have to atleast consider it.

giants +115 -- just wouldnt feel right if i didnt lose money betting on cain ... and if he won after all the bets i have lost on him when he pitches great i would be pissed. he matches up well here but it is reflected in the price ... giants will be much larger dogs than this in some spots on the road. maybe.

reds +115 -- home sweet home for the reds after a brutal road trip. meanwhile first game of second series on the road for brewers .. usually a bad spot .... right hander vs brewers always looks good and reds prefer good righties to hit rather than average lefties. still not sure price is high enough for me to fade a guy like sheets. maybe not.

astros -120 -- colorado just played a grueling game in san diego and the bullpen is trash now. can morales go enough innings for them here ? just a tough spot for rockies. thanks for the +170 yesterday though.

zona -? --same problem for padres here as faces rockies above .. and against a good pitcher in Haren. When price comes out though i expect it to be high.

those are the games on the short list ... will try to post any plays tomorrow.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

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giants +115 -- just wouldnt feel right if i didnt lose money betting on cain ... .

Awesome.:36_11_6: gl today.

 

[Blue_Chip]

astros -120 -- colorado just played a grueling game in san diego and the bullpen is trash now. can morales go enough innings for them here ? just a tough spot for rockies. thanks for the +170 yesterday though.

zona -? --same problem for padres here as faces rockies above .. and against a good pitcher in Haren. When price comes out though i expect it to be high.

I like these plays, and I think maybe a 1st5 under bet in each game would be in order. The SP's for COL and SD will be fresh, but their bullpens will not be. I do not want Maddux pitching a gem then have Hoffman & Co give up 6 runs in the 8th.

 

[Blue_Chip]

I just read that Maddux is going for his 350th win. He will be motivated.

What worries me is that Maddux is a groundball pitcher meaning he is dependent on his defense to get the out. The SD bats should be sluggish and I am afraid SD's gloves will be as well. But, Maddux will be motivated so this is a difficult game to cap.

I think I might take a break from baseball until May. I want to play the Cavs this weekend, and might be going to the Hornets game.

 

[tee*dub]

I like the Giants today and I especially like them in the series.. Waiting for a price on that now.

First two games pit the Giants top two starters against aruably the Cards bottom two and Pineiro does not look right to me .. Lincecum struck out 11 Cardinals in 6 innings in last outing---that one appears to be a big mismatch... Probably going against the Cards in this series but haven't locked anything in yet.. GL

 

[RetroVK]

Just finished capping the pirates/cubbies game. Since it is the early start. Lean pittsburgh here but it is a no play for me. official plays should be ready in a few hours.

 

[tee*dub]

see the giants are +160 (my number) for the series. Was expecting more.. Lean this but decided a no play. Giants offense is so bad I just can't back them on the road even with what I consider huge pitching advantages in gms 1 and 2.

 

[RetroVK]

hear ya tee ..... after backing the nats and rockies yesterday i dont know if i can stand to follow a team like the giants today ... would be nice to have the good offense once in awhile !! At +160 for the series , assuming the scheduled starters pitch , i still think the giants are the value ... BTW nice start on the season wins bet ... concern for me was their first half so must be nice to see what they have done so far

 

[~Utah]

GL im on a few

 

[RetroVK]

some thoughts on my short list games... looks like i will have two plays tonight.

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mets/phillies under 8 ---- There is simply nothing to dislike here and i am not going to try and outthink myself. Cole Hamels is an absolute stud and johan santana is considered the best pitcher in baseball. One of the things that I try to remember is that for an over to come in , generally both teams need to score for you. Just hard to see that happening here. Lets look at it.... First Santana ..... The first thing that immediately jumps out at you is that outside of Jenkins the phillies really havent seen this guy pitch. That is a huge edge for a guy with just an average fastball , with average movement... it is next to impossible to hit a guy like santana the first time you see him if he is not having a really off night. Santana is already pitching as you would expect this year .. 20.2 innings just 16 hits and 7 er allowed. In his three starts he has allowed 1 ,2 and 4 earned runs. The 4 er game was the result of 3 brewers homeruns ... brewers bat for power and hit lefties extremely well ... still the brewers managed just 6 total hit in the 6.2 innings pitched by santana. He is striking out 6 guys per game so far this year. He was a better pitcher last year away from home .. mostly do to the fact i think he pitches better outdoors. A lot of the Santana games that go over the total are a result of his team scoring a lot of runs vs the opposing team .. i dont see why that happens with hamels on the mound. Outside of Beltran and Delgado no one on the mets even comes close to hitting this guy. They bat just .225 off the guy and if he finds a way to get beltran and delgado out , the mets are going to have a real hard time scoring. The rest of the team bats .176 off Hamels in 68 visits to the plate. Hamels is also in great form right now. He has gone seven innnings or more in all 3 starts and has allowed just 2 er. He has not allowed over 4 er in his last 16 starts and i hav eno reason to believe he does so here. The bullpens i suppose are a concern , especially the mets coming off long innings vs the nats yesterday but i think we can expect long innings from both starters here. Wind is pretty light , the stadium is obviously a hitters park , and no clue yet who the homeplate umpire will be. This is a major public play ... this time i think the public is right.

Astros --- BE CAREFUL HERE. After capping this game out i would be all over the rockies in any normal circumstance. I am laying off because of ths situation .. the long game last night followed by crossing a time zone ... but this matchup heavily favors the rockies on paper in a normal circumstance. astros ahve never seen morales, rockies have pounded sampson when they have seen him , rockies prefer righties as well... just be careful i dont think there is a ton of value here in the astros. no play for me but i think a lot of people will be fading the rockies today situationally ,,,,, hell thought i would be too .... but the matchup is not favorable. NO PLAY

giants -- matt cain. I don't know if the guy is sleeping with the rest of the teams wives but they seem to do whatever it takes to lose when he pitches. I think he has phenomenal stuff but i just keep losing money on him. He does occasionally struggle with control. I feel i should back him but the price just isnt good enough for me. Note that Cain is not afraid of walking people and Wellemeyer is a free pass machine so you may want to take a peek at the umpire in this one ... but also note that neither team historically hits the oppsoing pitcher all that well. I am a tad too confused and possibly emotionally involved with past losers on Cain to actually make this bet. NO PLAY

indians -115 --- I played this one already so you will see it in the official plays later for sure. Cliff Lee right now is just pitching exceptional baseball and he gets a very favorable lineup to face today. While the twins have not been that bad vs lefties to start the year , if you go back over last year they struggled a lot , and it was mitigated by torii hunter just lighting up lefties ... hunter is gone now. Lee has been exceptional vs the twins bats giving up a .192 avg and a .246 obp. With Liriano I admittedly am not completely confident about what i will get .... there is a chance he comes out and is the liriano of old and pitches a gem but he is still rounding into form. In his one start this year , he really labored with control at kansas city walking 5 guys in 4.2 innings. Even when liriano was right and pitched against the indians in 2006 they were able to get to him. He failed to go over 5 innings in either start ... 10 innings , 9 hits , 6 walks , 6 runs allowed. At this moment in time , he is not as good a pitcher as he was back in july 2006. He is gonna have to prove it to me .... but i know this .... if lee and liriano both pitch gems ... i would rather have the indians lineup which might have woke up in the last game vs detroit. i thought this should be -127 atleast so great value here to me. like i said , i already bet this one.

reds +115 -- laying off. NO PLAY.

zona - like the dbacks here but got priced out of the game. NO PLAY
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[YesSir]

On the Tribe...bol

 

[RetroVK]

official plays

cleveland -115
mets/phillies under 8 -110

 

[RetroVK]

ok 1-1 today minus 0.10 units

lets recap

mets/phillies under 8 -110

The bullpens i suppose are a concern , especially the mets coming off long innings vs the nats yesterday but i think we can expect long innings from both starters here.

This was pretty prophetic. We knew going in that the bullpens were where we were likely going to have to sweat this out at the end of the game. went into the eighth 2-1 but the bullpens gave the two starters no help and 6 runs were scored in the eighth inning and the mets tagged what for our purposes was a meaningless run on in the top of the ninth. Some folks are going to consider this game a bad beat and while we were a considerable favorite late in the game , it was this exact thing that worried me about this bet. Game went as capped , it just didnt work out.

Cleveland -115 --- Liriano actually pitched a good game but Lee was unhittable today giving up just two hits over 8 innnings. 4-0 final. Liriano is definitely back into "backable" category again.

Be back later with thoughts on tomorrow
updated baseball record

season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 14-11 +1.07 units
dogs 18-15 +7.12units
overs 2-3-1 -1.00 units
unders 7-3-1 +3.58 units

 

[TheSportsThing]

Too bad the Phils hit that 3 run shot to mess with your under. Good call on Clev. I always have a hard time backing Lee but wow. Crazy things happening everyday