Tim...why does the MD @ UVA line continue to drop?...




Aztec4Life

Aztec4Life

Montezuma Mesa Survivor
The line is now Maryland @ UVA +3.

UVA Offense looks awful...I just can't see why this line continues to drop.
 
Maryland offense doesnt look any better does it? Virginia has impressed me on defense and I see this being a tight game. With all the Terps offensive problems I wouldnt lay points on the road v a good defense plsu Virg is palying a young QB who you would expect to improve week to week and be more comfortable at home.....

TimH is the expert but thats my 2 cents...
 
Another one of these games that looks to good to be true.

There is a lot this week, the mizzou game, the arizona game , this one, im willing to bet if you bet all of the too good to be true lines ( that u will have a week like i did last week)
 
Why does it look to be good to be true?

You gusy have to stop thinking who you think will win and by how many points....

this lines are actually bad and shaded the wrong way.

What has Maryland done?

They played a solid game @ GT...You have to say GT was going to be somewhat flat after winning at VT. As well as knowing GTs offense isnt that good and will always struggle as a fav to cover big spreads. The VT upset inflated that line probably 2 points. I had Maryland and thought this should have been more like 11.5 instead of 14.5

You have a different Virginia team past 3 weeks. They hung tough @ GT with a young QB making his 1st start.

They dominanted a bad Duke team and played fairly well in its 3rd straight away game vs ECU. Who I happen to think are a solid team and bakced this Sat.

What makes Maryland deserving of being road chalk oustide of 1 recent game.

Virg D is solid and I wouldnt expect much from the Terps O......

The True line for this game is a PKem IMO.....

JMHO....
 
MD offense is better than UVA's, no question about that in my mind, both rushing and throwing the ball. UVA just hasn't been able to run the football at all (2.9 ypr) and the lack of any ground game really puts a lot of pressure on a young QB who hasn't had a lot of help from his wide receivers (4.24 ypa). Deyon Williams is back which will help VA but they still have been largely inconsistent on offense. MD has killed themselves with Turnovers (-7 margin so far) and haven't done a good job of stopping the run. Terps had a good game plan for GT but the Ball turnover which gave GT a shortfield and subsequent TD and then the inability to score from the seven with 1 and goal at the end did them in. MD continuing to get improved play from WR D. Heyward-Bey who is really coming into his own. He has size and speed and really helps their passing game. MD has not won in Charlottesville since 1990 and this series has largely been home dominated. I do think MD should be able to win this game though as I can't see UVA being able to establish any kind of balance on offense and I think MD will be able to run on them.
 
People are overthinking this.

Maryland is the superior team out of these two mediocre/shitty teams.

Lines are bouncing all over the place because people are overthinking the process and because it is October.

I like my MD -2.5 and nobody is going to tell me that ain't a good wager. It might not cash, but it's better than a coinflip by far to cash.
 
Its not overthinking....its making wagers placed on accuracy of the line followed by an opinion.....

I dont think Virginia is a strong play but I do think there defense can hold the offense in check and if turnovers a re a problem for the Terps...well one shortfield might be all it takes. We dont know about Vrginia they are off 3 road games with a new QB...

Maryland beat William & Mary 27 -14 at home
Mid Ten 24-10 at home
FIU 14-10 at home

They never showed up till down 38-10 vs WVU , lost 44 -21

Big deal they covered vs GT...GT was ripe for the pickings....

GT scored allowed a kick return TD and managed anice 17-7 lead but were outscore 21-6....final 2 .5 quarters.

Maryland scored twice...an 8yard TD drive and 100 yd kickoff....they cant sustain drives and go 80 yards...they continue to settle for 3 points...the Virginia defense at home will be very close to what they faced @ GT.

I am very cormfortable thinking without a shortfield 17 points from Maryland will be tough. Big plays hurt them vs GT and there is no Calvin Johnson on Maryland...

At a PKem the game is a coin flip , at 2.5 you are somewhat okay.....I am very confident that +3 or better is safe with Virginia...

Iftrps can win which I dont think they will it will be by 3...
 
"the Virginia defense at home will be very close to what they faced @ GT."

I totally disagree with you on that statement. ECU put up 31 on Va. last week and ran for over 200 yards without their top RB and WR. GT defense is much better than Va's.
 
Also GT owned the 2nd H.....2 missed FGs and a missed 2 pt conversion make this a larger margin then 4. As well as a 2nd Q 4th and 1 that GT failed to pickup on the Terps 24....more points off the board....

They gave Terps 14 points(short field TD and Kick ret TD) and only got 7 back(TD after the INT)...plus the 10 or so they left on the field...

thats like 17 points they gave away and I'll give Terps 4 more for not getting in on the 1..so 13 points...

So 4 pt margin...easily could have been 17 if GT was crisp and not sloppy.

making way to much out of 1 game...IMO

While I agree that terps have a better core of RB...what are thos empty yards doing for them...there basically getting 17 points a game...
 
Tim-

I guess you dont feel playing 3 straight road games is an issue?

maryland had 3 Fgs on offense....
 
Not to mention is ECU is a solid team and tough venue. Now clearly GTs defense is better but in terms of how many points they will allow it will be a similiar showing.

Cavs played good defense @ Pitt and @ GT....there were hurt by 2 big TDS in both games.....I dont foreee that type of thing happening from Maryland......So who else outside of the 3rd straight away game has moved teh ball consistently on Virginia?
 
Lets look at this-

vs pitt 38 points allowed..

(2) 70 + yard TD passes and a 70 yd Pick 6 to account for 21 points.

393 yards on 56 plays...151 on 2 plays... 242 on 54 plays.....thats solid defense IMO.. with 2 breakdowns

Wyoming 6 pts in regulation at home and 336 yards in 74 plays...

WMU 17 points allowed.....203 yards allowed on 53 plays...

@ GT allowed 374 yards on 61 plays...2 plays for 124 yards...250 on the other 59 plays....

@Duke shutout 180 yards on 69 plays....

@ ECU 31 pts 451yds on 81 plays

so forget ECU and the 4 long TD passes..

1201 yards allowed...309 plays run..... and just 50 points....

That to me a solid defense....playing 3 staright road games when you are just an average team is always cause for a disaster and a situiation I pratically blindly fade with low chalk.

So while talent wise GT has more talented defense players as a UNIT I would say Virginia is executing just as well as they are except on deep balls...JMO.....
 
SportsNut said:
Its not overthinking....its making wagers placed on accuracy of the line followed by an opinion.....
Click to expand...

That's the same approach I took on this game. I think it took me 30 seconds.
 
but you cant prove the line...now can you...

who is taking the line down when 70% back Maryland.....??
 
Nut - GT has played a much tougher schedule than Va. and their numbers defensively are appreciably better both vs. the run 2.4 ypr vs. 3.0 ypr and the pass 5.44 ypa vs. 7.4 ypa. We could sit here and argue numbers all day but my feeling after watching both teams is that GT is vastly superior defensively and particularly in the secondary.
 
I am not talking numbers with GT....

Dont see where you get that.

I am saying all season long Virginia has aplyed tough defense...

I am saying last week GT basically allowed maryland to score 17 points....

based on how people have failed to move the ball against Viginia I forsee similiar trouble for Maryland against the UVA defense...

I am not comparing what Virginia has done vs GT who has played ND and VaTech...GT has better talent and is more likely to slow a better offense. Marylands offense is very ordinary and thats why UVA should be able to keep them in check like they have everyone this season outside of 4 big pass plays...

I am not comparing GT vs UVA...I started that discussion off wrong...

Maryland offense is struggling and minus a big play or FOUR no one has moved the move on UVA till last week. WHich I attribute to situation...why would one expect Terps O to be able to move the ball now?
 
SportsNut said:
Maryland offense doesnt look any better does it? Virginia has impressed me on defense and I see this being a tight game. With all the Terps offensive problems I wouldnt lay points on the road v a good defense plsu Virg is palying a young QB who you would expect to improve week to week and be more comfortable at home.....

TimH is the expert but thats my 2 cents...
Click to expand...

As usual, great insight by you. UVa's D is talented and they're a much better squad at home. Not the best of spots for the Twerps at all....

I'm taking UVa ML this weekend, I think this is the only "big" game they have a chance at winning this year.
 
Well MD has killed themselves with TO's no doubt and they have a shown a penchant for not being able to sustain drives or make a big play when it counts. MD had a lot of success last yr. running the football against VA, in fact it happened to be after VA switched to the 3-4 alignment. At that time, I felt like that was a mistake for them because they didn't have the big NT to clog up the middle. They have done a better job vs. the run this year so far, against a mediocre schedule. I understand your point about 3rd game in a row on the road and agree that was a factor. However, I do think MD will be able to run effectively this weekend and that the Terps do have a much better balanced offense. I've been the first to say MD hasn't played up to their capabilities yet, but I do think they are getting closer and this is a game they definitely should win. We'll see on Saturday.
 
Tim, they've been in the 3-4 since Groh has been there, which has been 4 years. They've had trouble stopping the run since Chris Canty blew out his knee a couple years back, but they usually play much better at home.

I love their freshman NT and DE. The LBs have been nice surprises as well, even though they are young. Next year should be a good year for the Hoos, as the young talent will have had time to mesh.

You're right, though, the Terps SHOULD win this game. However, how many games has fat Ralph won on the road the last couple years in conference against teams not named Duke?
 
JG - I seem to recall that they started out last yr. in the 4-3 and switched after a couple of games into the season. I might be wrong about that but recall that there was some grumbling from the players about the switch. True about the road wins, though you forgot to throw in WF and NCST, and agreed Ralph hasn't seen his dick in a long time lol...I agree too Virg. will be a lot better next yr. Sewell is improving too. I'll wish you good health as usual we are butting heads.
 
Timh-

Always highly regard your opinion and I probably didnt clearly communicate what I wanted to say. So I do apologize if I was all ove the place I was in a rush at the time..

Everyone knows I am big situation and value guy...if i see I line is Off I dont mind going against the grain.

I understand your points from a football aspect....Maryland has more talent and upside...(experience)

Last year sort of loses value cause now UVA is in Maryland spot as the home dog...Also think while UVA has lost alot of talent from that team and doesnt have much of a running game they have changed themselves into a defense orientated team

Its been what 5 games what have they shown? UVA is off its worst performance which I atrribute to atough spot...I could be wrong with that factor but its how I see it. Maryland is probably coming off its best performance...Its easy to see why maryland looks attractive. I guess thats why I dont see Maryland improving last week..theyhad the situational edge.

I just thought last week in many ways UVS was setup to fail and Maryland was setup to suceed.

I generally dont key on if ateam will run the ball or not...I want to see week in week out what this offense is doing... if they have a balanced attack they will move the ball....

All I see is inconsistent play from both the QB and RB...while your probably correct that Maryland will be able to run the ball what does that translate into? Take the Falcons everyone was talking about there rushing attack and I was saying hey great they scored 34 points with all those yards.

Just as important is a teams ability to convert 3rd downs and not turnover the ball.

I think UVA finally get Sewell a home game could see a better offensive performance but truthfully I am not relying on that. I am relying on UVA 's defense to not allow one of those big TD passses that did them in vs Pitt or GT. If they do that see Maryland being more in line with what Wyoming and WMU did...10-17 point afternoon. If your laying points on the road and reasonably speaking you may not top 17 points then how is it worth laying points.

I am confident UVA is in a great spot to show there improvement and in a home dominanted series think any + points is value......

Its just my opinion but it also helps that Maryland could be thinking about the one that got away last week...

I cant prove to you that UVA is a better team today....its just not that simple. I feel like I can reasonable say that a true line is Maryland PK to -1.5..but not -3..

If you guys are right on SAT I will be the first to ackowledge it...GL
 
Nut - likewise always appreciate your thoughts. Its all about good discussion and I see where you are coming from. JG knows his VA team extremely well and I know from previous discussions with him that he is happy that Sewell got the job and is progressing and I agree with his thoughts about a young defense improving. In the end its just an opinion but I am expecting MD to finally put a decent game together. I think they have the ability to do that and I'm looking at last week as a building block.
 
Question: Tim...why does the MD @ UVA line continue to drop?...

I know this question was addressed to a single individual, but I have to chime in...

Answer: Because Home dogs with the better defense cover A LOT!!! I mean a REAL LOT!!!
 
horses said:
Question: Tim...why does the MD @ UVA line continue to drop?...

I know this question was addressed to a single individual, but I have to chime in...

Answer: Because Home dogs with the better defense cover A LOT!!! I mean a REAL LOT!!!
Click to expand...

I'm not going to agree that VA has the better defense. VA has done a better job of stopping the run than MD but MD pass defense numbers are much better 5.74 ypa vs. 7.4 ypa for VA.
 
TimH, If you don't believe UVA has the better defense, than I would think the Terps would be a play, because they definitely have the superior O.

I personally barely even regard YPA stats; I know certain individuals use them effectively (Flava comes to mind). However...schedule has as much to do with it as talent on the field. UVA has played Wyoming and Pitt...two teams that move the ball thru the air. The best teams the Terps have played, WVA and Ga Tech, move on the ground predominantly.

Either way...I looked into this game more last nite and it is a definite pass for me. I can't play the 'Hoos at that short a price.

GL to all the Terp backers.
 
Horses agreed it's hard to try and quantify it through just stats and agree on your schedule comments as well. MD numbers for rushing defense don't look very good at all because of giving up a lot to WVU and GT. I am on MD but unfortunately at -4. I can understand you passing the game. I just have a feeling this week that MD gets it done. Always appreciate the discussion.
 
TimH, sometimes a feeling is the best handicapping tool of all, esp if it applies to a team you know real well. Appreciate the discussion as well.
 
Timh said:
JG - I seem to recall that they started out last yr. in the 4-3 and switched after a couple of games into the season. I might be wrong about that but recall that there was some grumbling from the players about the switch. True about the road wins, though you forgot to throw in WF and NCST, and agreed Ralph hasn't seen his dick in a long time lol...I agree too Virg. will be a lot better next yr. Sewell is improving too. I'll wish you good health as usual we are butting heads.
Click to expand...

"Butting heads" sounds harsh. Can't we just call it a friendly disagreement? :cheers:

You're right, thinking back, they dabbled with it a bit with all the new blood, but ultimately Al stuck with the 3-4 (Schmidt, Fat Kennon Carter, and Long on the line) for the majority of the year. I hate it as teams with good run games seem to get 4 yards a play on every down, but when they're aggressive against teams with just OK run games (like MD) they can get some stops. I think that all the negativity about this team and their struggles during this "QB transition" have people severely underestimating their capabilities, as I still see 8 future NFLers in the starting lineup (Long, Hamilton, Williams, Cook, Monroe, Albert, Stupar, and Fitzgerald). With that being said, the playcalling has been god awful this year on the offensive side of the ball (I like what London has done with the new one gap system on D, though) and Al isn't getting any less senile, so like you said, Maryland really should come in and win this one by 7-10. I think the Hoos are just going to be really up this weekend as they have to get this win to even think about sniffing a bowl (unlikely, I know, but anything can happen with the way Miami, F$U, and VPI have been playing lately).

Either way, dude, I like you, you're a good guy, and as you know no hard feelings about any arrogant or ridiculous things I say. Just remember that I'm a UVa snob and that's just our disposition, OK? :an_roll_laugh:
 
JG you crack me up man, always good discussion with you. You're passionate about your squad just like I am :shake: Actually to tell you the truth I am very nervous about this game but sticking with my gut instinct. I'll have to have all of the sharp objects removed from the house if we lose lol....

GL on the weekend guys :cheers:
 
I agree we are all intelligent cappers who are going to have conviction in there opinions. We all probably feel like we come off to harsh at times.

I would say Tim knows his Terps 100x better then I know any college team.

For me I look at what maryland did last week and dont come away impressed. Thats my viewpoint. I felt they were handed 14 points early and only earned 3 FGS with there offense. While having a huge situational edge.

While I said in comparing GTs defense and UVAs defene was phrased wrong I still am thinking along the lines. We also have to remember a teams offense can dictate how well its defense plays. I think UVA gets a pass last week cause it was playing its 3rd straight road game against a team that was better then them. Some might not agree with that.

I do think with UVA if you want a real feel for there passing yardage you need to discount those 4 BIG TD plays...which probaly take the YD avg into the mid 5's.....

Even if you dont buy into UVA's defense I would think you would agree the UVA defense is a tougher challenege then say Mid Ten State , FIU and William & Marys defense on the ROAD...so if the offense struggled in those situtaions why would I expect improvement here....

I agree with saying this is a marginal play but having the HOME dog getting a little extra..think it should be Terps -1.5...is very helpful. The Home & away factor is so significant in college a 3 or 4 pt home field adjustment does it know justice.

We all would probably agree a team like Wake Forest could give Clemson trouble at home but if they played @ Clemson it would be a different story ...at thats another factor I see.....

I wish Tim had them at -2.5 not -4 cause I wont be suprised to see a FG win...

GL
 
Jesus christ, what a discussion over two crap teams. TimH is the resident MD expert and the leader of the Conrad Bolston bandwagon...LOL

All this talk aside, it's just good to see my man JGALT! What up my man?
 
I think that this is a great reflection on the quality of people in this forum. To be able to debate a game that flies so under the radar and have equal heads on eachside making sense....

Now watch terps win by 3 and make it all moot..
 
smh212 said:
Jesus christ, what a discussion over two crap teams. TimH is the resident MD expert and the leader of the Conrad Bolston bandwagon...LOL

All this talk aside, it's just good to see my man JGALT! What up my man?
Click to expand...

Not much bro, figured I'd check this out and see a bunch of posters I love over here. Trying to get back into NFL and seeing you, Nut, santacapper, and some of these other fucker's plays should help me out with all that :smiley_acbe:

Oh, and GO FLYERS!! :wacka wacka:
 
Wow......

I impress my self from time to time...

Said a thousand times in here the line should be Maryland PK to worst case -1.5. If Terps won it would be 3 ........they won by 2!

Pretty nice rollcoaster that game was.....

BTW this is not gloating about anything people saying I was overthinking the LINE....when it called it days in advance....game could have went either way...
 
That game was tough for me, because it was good in some ways and awful in others. Good because it was one more step towards Al Groh being fired, and bad because I lost my ML bet and UVa had to lose to the dreaded Terps. Either way, I still feel like I had that game called right, the Hoos are a better team than the Twerps, the Groh's just called a horribly conservative gameplan in the 2h and the Hoos killed themselves (fumbling a punt on the 1, giving Maryland a short field on a muffed punt, a pick 6, and a missed tackle leading to a 70 yard TD run). Just a tough game to watch for me, I can't remember being that upset about a loss in a long time.

violin
 
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