Thursday's CFB...




CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Most of you know by now that I'm on the 'dog' tonight.

I think there is ridiculous value with the Terps. 'Fridge' is a master motivator, and they always play well on the road and in the 'dog' role. I had them catching 9.5 and figured it might open 12 and close 14 at the most. This 18 bullshit is more than absurd.

Maryland has played two cupcakes, and shown very little in either outing. That's got people talking bad about them and it's what has driven the line up. Yes, I'm aware Middle Tenny outgained the Terps. I also know this game has been circled in the Terp locker room all summer after the Mounties rallied to win on the road last year. The Fridge didn't have to show much in those first two games, so I expect him to open things up tonight.

The Maryland O-line is big and physical and should open up some hopes and keep the high-octane Mounties on the sidelines. Lattimore, Ball and Allen are three good backs who can rotate in and pound away. The only worry I have about the passing game is Hollenbach's mobility but he should have a pocket to find guys tonight - West Virginia has yet to sack either Marshall or Eastern Washington.

I've heard nothing but good things about LB Jefferson for the Terps, and if he plays well tonight, then I give the Mounties a chance to slow the WV offense enough to give them a chance to win it in the fourth quarter.

Fridge has said all along that this is his deepest team at Maryland, including his first team, that went to the Orange Bowl.

If they play with confidence throughout, and make plays down the stretch, they will win this game on the field. In fact, I'm calling for it.

Prediction: Maryland 31, West Virginia 27
The play: Maryland plus 17 for a medium bet. Maryland plus 17.5 for another bet, a big one. So basically, my biggest play of the year so far...

Good luck to those who are aboard...
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:shake:
 
Wow, predicting the SU win.... Good health to you. Get me my 1H WV play and you can have the final :) and I'll take the loss...
 
Am strongly considering the OVER for a small bet. Don't understand why it's a little low. Just making sure weather is not going to be an issue.
 
Thanks for the comments by the way, fellas, GL to you all tonight and this weekend in games you're not on the other side of...
 
Rex- I'm with you. Not that that will help any. LOL
Canuck's 'Fade the public" system would have this as a strong play.
Here's wishing you a BIG BIG wek-end:cheers:
 
Yes, bull. Right now at our shop, the bet count is 138-19.

Let me repeat. 138 to 19.

I might lose but these are spots I like... Say HI to the Canadian for me and tell him to stop in and say hello.
 
Thursday night ESPN always bet on the home team whatever the spread!! It's a casher for sure!!
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Denny: Shame on you. You know better than that. Louisville almost beat Miami on the field two years ago on a Thursday when catching 9. That's just one example of two teams playing this week...

Good health if you actually ventured into a WV play.
 
Rexy, I actually had the fortune of catching WVU -13.5 at Pinny earlier this week for -112. I was thinking of trying to middle this play tonight by buying Maryland up to +18 (running anywhere from -120 to -125). I know that's a lot of juice to give up, but damn, that's also 4.5 points to toy with there! I know middling works better in NFL than college, but what would you do if you were me?
 
Just pounded Maryland over 15.5 points tonight... Even if they have to do it in garbage time, 17 points is not a hard number to get to
 
Denny: You did get the best of the number. Think you're well-served buying to 17.5 .... that means you've got 14, 15, 16, 17 to work with...

Of course if I were you, I would bet roughly 3 times more on plus 17.5 than I had on -13.5

hahaha
 
Rex,

Good to see you on the Terps tonight. I am catching 20 points on my site. I am going to get in a medium play at 20 and buy a point up to 21 for another large play. GL

Fast Freddie
 
:drinking:

GL Rexy. Need more points than your prediction for my WV to score 32!
 
Only other thing that scares me is that I said earlier I think Maryland can control the line of scrimmage on offense and try to keep WV off the field. A couple of long drives would not surprise me and if they can do that, and WV does the same thing... then the OVER has very little chance of winning unless this game goes to overtime, which is a decent possibility...
 
GL rex. With you on this one.

I think it will be ball control on both sides, shorten the game, and come down to a score or a 10 pt game either way.

GL
 
Hunt: I have not. Nor do I care. This is a far more talented team than what they've shown. You will see the Maryland that several people (myself NOT one of them) can contend in their division in the ACC. You will see a talented team that will play hard and compete for 60 minutes. And at the end, you will see them stun the West Virginia believers...
 
Hey CKR...

I have been intrigued by Maryland all week and have watche d this line get fatter and fatter. What I also watched was the ML get grossly out of whack....17 point fav usually something in the -800 range we see this now at -1150 and was as high as -1300. I know that when ML's get FAT they usually flop...great example and I went against my own best judgement but the Skins were -4 yet -200 on the ML...not suprisingly they lost outright.

Not sure how Maryland is going to do it and I took the points already but the ML is worth a shot @ +890 or whatever yo can grab...

Might sound like a load of BS but perception is KEY and its worth the risk here IMO. You have to be able to identify patterns and this is true ' gambling' but the payout is worth it. Might sound crazy but I traded bonds and used this approach and if you play Poker understanding sequences is a huge advantage....anyway sorry for the ramble ! Take a shot on the Maryland ML. GL bro
 
Rex...I was just curious, that's all.

GL on your pick bro.

I did take WVU first half...good health on game my friend
 
Thanks for the comments, gentlemen...

The sky will fall out on this number shortly. The total will also drop. Neither thing might be the right thing, but it's just for you to know.

If you like Maryland, take 17 or 17.5 now. It won't be there much longer...

If you like the fave for some reason, wait it out. You might see 14 but I think it will close 15 or 15.5

GL all...
 
I have seen Maryland play this year and struggle to fucking William and Mary bad... and when you see them on national TV in MORGANTOWN getting their ass kicked i think you woulda wished you watched this team instead of going off what you think you see and know
 
REX - just FYI - I put up a 18K offer at mansion on MD +17 ev (so people could get WV -17 EV) and it was taken in about 7 minutes flat, so I do think there is support for WV at -17.

I dont think it will go up, but I would be surprised to see 16.5.

Just my opinion and I must say on line movements - I am often wrong.
 
My opinion on this move is that there will be sharp syndicate money for dog. And I am rarely wrong on that considering where I work, ha ha ha...

Bar: Good health on WV. I have trusted Tim's and two other friends of mine opinions on Maryland for several years now. If you're right, then congrats and cash your ticket.

I don't see it going down like that...
 
barmoycm-

I dont know shit compared to these guys when talking about Maryland football. However I do know that WV has had 2 quality opponents since the White / Slaton duo started getting PT. They let pitt hang around for 3 quarters last year before a 3TD 4th Q Iced it and were only laying -15 points. Then they were a gift @ +7 vs Georgia and jumped on teh Dawgs before having to hold off a late rally.

I absolutely believe that Maryland has purposedly used a vanilla offense and whil ethey have lost alot in the passing game ther eOL is still huge and running game is deep. So I think with WV defense being very average they might be able to move the ball thru the air since WV will stck the line( or respect teh run). I also believe Maryland has had this game circled!

I think two things happen here WV blows them out as Maryland will be the team it has shown to be or Maryland hangs with WV til the last sec or upsets them. No inbewteens ! I really think Maryland has the personel to keep the ball out of WV's hands......Terps score first and there game plan will have legs.....

WV has tremendous talent on offense but I dont like there defense much....JMHO! GL
 
texsn95 said:
Hmm, got the total at O47, now at 50, good middle oppotunity?
Click to expand...

Screw it, my first middle try, had to try it with the extra 1/2.
U50.5 for 1.5 units. I either win 300, lose 1 or lose 6 :smiley_acbe:
31-17 sound good? :cheers:
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Thanks for the comments, gentlemen...

The sky will fall out on this number shortly. The total will also drop. Neither thing might be the right thing, but it's just for you to know.

If you like Maryland, take 17 or 17.5 now. It won't be there much longer...

If you like the fave for some reason, wait it out. You might see 14 but I think it will close 15 or 15.5

GL all...
Click to expand...

Thanks for the "heads up!" You were right.
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Well fellas, back in the office... bad decision for the house and for me....

Only thing that made it somewhat better was the screwey halftime line, which made MD a 35-point dog.

Shocking.

Still had a chance to get the cash late and could not waltz in the backdoor... Maybe next time.........

Halftime made up for my losses but I wanted the whole thing....................................

Final point - WV is better than I thought, especially early. But I had those fools in Atlanta and remember they did little after the break..... Worried about them in these spots rest of year....

Except when U of L trounces them at Pizza Palace.... nothing to be concerned about there.....
 
WVU looked great on that first drive, but after that, I don't know how much of it was WVU and how much of it was Maryland giving them the game? Let's face it, Maryland's turnovers and boneheaded penalties made this game easy for WVU.

You can't cap turnovers, Rexy.
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MD fumbles two kickoffs. Other team gets them both.

WV fumbles a kickoff. The guy recovers it and proceeds to run it back for a touchdown.

WV fumbles into the end zone. They recover it for a touchdown.

The first possession of the second half, MD tosses it up. Ruled an INT on the field. Wrong call. FRIDGE challenges it and LOSES????? WRONG CALL...

-5 in turnovers after that.

Denny's right; no one can overcome that...
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Final point - WV is better than I thought, especially early. But I had those fools in Atlanta and remember they did little after the break..... Worried about them in these spots rest of year....

Except when U of L trounces them at Pizza Palace.... nothing to be concerned about there.....
Click to expand...

:shake:

I dont think UL trounces them.. but it will be a great game. Good luck this week
 
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