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Sherwood:
The Rockies opened as a -156 favorite here. That looks like a clear enticement into trying to get bettors into taking the bait on the Padres. After all, San Diego just beat Clayton Kershaw last night in L.A. and Andrew Cashner has put up better numbers than Jhoulys Chacin. The Rockies are better at home and deserve to be favored, but by this much? The Padres have won four of Cashner's last five starts and over that stretch, covering 33 innings, Cashner has walked just five batters and he has not issued a single walk in his last two starts, However, Cashner has pitched more innings this season (57) than any time before at this level. Over the past three years, Cashner has spent 209 days on the DL while never throwing more than 54 innings in a season. He's been switched from starter to reliever to starter and he now enters unchartered territory in terms of innings worked at this level with some serious warning signs. Cashner has surrendered six bombs over his last four starts and that includes three in Seattle in his last start. He's also striking out less batters. Taking on the Rockies at Coors Field is the worst matchup in baseball for opposing pitchers, where they must face a potent offense in an extremely hitting friendly environment (+43% runs scored). Granted, it is a very small sample size, but the Rockies have knocked Cashner around in 8.2 career innings, where he has given up 20 hits, 5 BB, and 14 ER. Based on this high line, oddsmakers are calling for Cashner to be roughed up again and based on his pedigree, current form and past history here, we couldn't agree more. With a 3-3 record in 10 starts, a 4.26 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, Jhouly's Chacin is not going to garner much attention here but this is a pitcher that should be on your radar because he's coming on big time. The surface stats don't say so but under the hood, Chacin has an elite 58% groundball rate over his last four starts. His ERA over that span is an unappealing 6.07 but it's all because of a very unfortunate 57% strand rate. When that normailizes, his ERA will drop significantly. Chacin's xERA over his last four starts is 3.85 and that's actually very impressive when you consider that three of those four starts were at Coors Field. Chacin has dominated in the past, especially against righties and at the young age of 25 and appearing to be fully recovered from some health issues over the past couple of years, Chacin is a prime breakout candidate. The surface stats on both these pitchers are misleading, with Chacin being much better than the stats suggest and Cashner being much worse. That sets this one up very nicely for the Rockies to tee off and we're on it.
2 units on Rockies RL
The Rockies opened as a -156 favorite here. That looks like a clear enticement into trying to get bettors into taking the bait on the Padres. After all, San Diego just beat Clayton Kershaw last night in L.A. and Andrew Cashner has put up better numbers than Jhoulys Chacin. The Rockies are better at home and deserve to be favored, but by this much? The Padres have won four of Cashner's last five starts and over that stretch, covering 33 innings, Cashner has walked just five batters and he has not issued a single walk in his last two starts, However, Cashner has pitched more innings this season (57) than any time before at this level. Over the past three years, Cashner has spent 209 days on the DL while never throwing more than 54 innings in a season. He's been switched from starter to reliever to starter and he now enters unchartered territory in terms of innings worked at this level with some serious warning signs. Cashner has surrendered six bombs over his last four starts and that includes three in Seattle in his last start. He's also striking out less batters. Taking on the Rockies at Coors Field is the worst matchup in baseball for opposing pitchers, where they must face a potent offense in an extremely hitting friendly environment (+43% runs scored). Granted, it is a very small sample size, but the Rockies have knocked Cashner around in 8.2 career innings, where he has given up 20 hits, 5 BB, and 14 ER. Based on this high line, oddsmakers are calling for Cashner to be roughed up again and based on his pedigree, current form and past history here, we couldn't agree more. With a 3-3 record in 10 starts, a 4.26 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, Jhouly's Chacin is not going to garner much attention here but this is a pitcher that should be on your radar because he's coming on big time. The surface stats don't say so but under the hood, Chacin has an elite 58% groundball rate over his last four starts. His ERA over that span is an unappealing 6.07 but it's all because of a very unfortunate 57% strand rate. When that normailizes, his ERA will drop significantly. Chacin's xERA over his last four starts is 3.85 and that's actually very impressive when you consider that three of those four starts were at Coors Field. Chacin has dominated in the past, especially against righties and at the young age of 25 and appearing to be fully recovered from some health issues over the past couple of years, Chacin is a prime breakout candidate. The surface stats on both these pitchers are misleading, with Chacin being much better than the stats suggest and Cashner being much worse. That sets this one up very nicely for the Rockies to tee off and we're on it.
2 units on Rockies RL
