Thursday trouble in Beantown Discussion

GWarner27

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
leans from the BOL open:
MIL +103: Fletcher
KC -108: Davis
BAL +113
TEX +151


on the radar:
StL u7.5 -125: Tumpane
PIT -138: Hernandez
SD -107
MIA +116
MIN -110: Everitt
DET +100: Gonzalez
KC u7.5 -120: Davis
HOU -116/u7.5 -105
 
Fade the Marlins on the circadian rhythm angle. All 18 of their games have been on the east coast so far.
 
goldengreek said:
Arrieta loves pitching against the Cards.
3-0 in 6 career starts...
0.74 ERA 0.94 WHIP 42 Ks
Click to expand...

series hasnt went exactly as planned but still up and i still am expecting the split i thought it be, just took scrubbies longer to get that 1st win than id have liked. damn near blew this one tonight little worrisome.. agree with gw's lean to the under as well, but not sure i want to get involved with that. id love to get +120 but i think im pretty happy at +115, just think might be able to do better if i wait based off cards history off a loss and lackeys unsustainable numbers at busch. long as scrubbies dont expand the zone against his slider i think they will be able to post another 4-5 runs. that certainly be enough id think, just dunno if they can remain disciplined after watching them wave at lyons avg off speed stuff the other day (think chc have highest k rate in bases which not good).. that my one worry but not enough to not take arrieta. plus i love fading a team off a streak as well.
 
austinhous said:
Fade the Marlins on the circadian rhythm angle. All 18 of their games have been on the east coast so far.
Click to expand...

holy crap, you just made me smarter after i goggled that. lol. ill def look at this gm thru a sf or pass lens..
 
Last edited:
i actually like Lackey and see no reason why he won't continue to pitch well. He was an absolute stud as an Angel (especially on the road away from Anaheim) and it just took him a couple years to get TJ and come back to his old self
 
updated leans:
KC +100: Davis
BAL +122
TEX +156


on the radar:
MIL -105: Fletcher
SD -105
MIA +126
MIN -104: Everitt
DET +110: Gonzalez
HOU -107/u7.5 +100
 
De La Rosa is a Target on 5 days rest.
Liking Cleveland seems strange. Worst starter facing Volquez after his team gets slapped.
First inning yes in Tampa? Seems strange but Martinez has given up a run in the first inning every game I believe.
 
Oakland and WS are both 0-3 on Thursday
Cardinals 3-0 KC 3-1 and Minn 2-1 Tampa 2-0
 
GWarner27 said:
i actually like Lackey and see no reason why he won't continue to pitch well. He was an absolute stud as an Angel (especially on the road away from Anaheim) and it just took him a couple years to get TJ and come back to his old self
Click to expand...

dont get me wrong, he has been very good for us and he on probably the most team friendly contract of this generation. he a bulldog and fits in perfectly with this team. that said his stuff isnt simply world class, if you force him to pitch in the zone he can be very hittable, that may be a issue today cause he prob will be able to get cubs to expand. i do think he has generally been overpriced as a card and see absolutely no reason his numbers can continue being what they have been at busch which is at least a run better than anywhere else in the world! im totally on board with the under here, i just think there value in betting arrieta as a dog as i feel he the better pitcher and love his splits vs lefties. maybe it my stubbornness that i thought this series be a split going in, and i cetainly didnt plan on having a wager on chc every stinking gm. but it is what it is, i am a fan of fading a team at that has just snapped a streak so there that too. i think we talking a 3-2 type gm here for real.. gl gw
 
The wind is forecast out to right/center at 11mph in Anaheim. Santiago induces a shitload of fly balls. And the Astros lead the MLB in home runs versus LHP. It sucks that they are 0-3 SU L3 because that is a recipe for some runs. McHugh has also given up 13 runs in his L4 starts. I am thinking F5 over.
 
2daBank said:
dont get me wrong, he has been very good for us and he on probably the most team friendly contract of this generation. he a bulldog and fits in perfectly with this team. that said his stuff isnt simply world class, if you force him to pitch in the zone he can be very hittable, that may be a issue today cause he prob will be able to get cubs to expand. i do think he has generally been overpriced as a card and see absolutely no reason his numbers can continue being what they have been at busch which is at least a run better than anywhere else in the world! im totally on board with the under here, i just think there value in betting arrieta as a dog as i feel he the better pitcher and love his splits vs lefties. maybe it my stubbornness that i thought this series be a split going in, and i cetainly didnt plan on having a wager on chc every stinking gm. but it is what it is, i am a fan of fading a team at that has just snapped a streak so there that too. i think we talking a 3-2 type gm here for real.. gl gw
Click to expand...

can't ever argue with taking a dog, i'll just need a lot more. GL
 
austinhous said:
The wind is forecast out to right/center at 11mph in Anaheim. Santiago induces a shitload of fly balls. And the Astros lead the MLB in home runs versus LHP. It sucks that they are 0-3 SU L3 because that is a recipe for some runs.
Click to expand...

ball was jumping this past series though the heat may be gone
 
for those who care

[TABLE="class: tableOdds"]
<thead>[TR="class: row-head"]
[TD="class: team"]
My Game
Time​

Team​

[/TD]
[TD="class: bets"]
Bets​
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"]
Spd
%​
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"]
ML
%​
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"]
OU
%​
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"]
Prly
%​
[/TD]
[TD="class: pressure"]Line

Prediction
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"]CRIS
Open
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"]Pinnacle
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"]CRIS
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"]Greek
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"]BetUS
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"]Matchbk
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"]SIA
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"]Grande
[/TD]
[/TR]
</thead> [/TABLE]

[TABLE="class: tableOdds"]
<tbody id="oddsBody">[TR="class: row-group"]
[TD="class: info"] [/TD]
[TD="class: team"] MLB - 5/7/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: bets"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: pressure"]5/7/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
5/07

1:10 PM


961 OAK-D Pomeranz (L)
962 MIN-R Nolasco
​
[/TD]
[TD="class: bets"] 7573
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 64%
36%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 63%
37%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 76%
24%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 60%
40%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pressure"]

[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 8.5u-115
-115/-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -102/-106
8.5o-113
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -103/-107
8.5u-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 8.5o-120
-106/-104
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 8.5o-120
-110/-110
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 8.5o-110/+100
-102/+100
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 8.5o-120
-115/-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 8.5o-120
-108/-102
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
5/07

1:40 PM


951 LAD-C Frias
952 MIL-M Fiers
​
[/TD]
[TD="class: bets"] 8646
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 73%
27%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 74%
26%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 59%
41%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 71%
29%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pressure"]

[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -120/+100
8o-120
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -108/+100
8.5u-109
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -108/-102
8.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -108/-102
8.5u-115
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -115/-105
8.5u-115
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -103/+102
8.5u-102/+100
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -115/-105
8.5u-115
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -106/-104
8.5u-115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
5/07

1:45 PM


953 CHC-J Arrieta
954 STL-J Lackey
​
[/TD]
[TD="class: bets"] 9205
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 26%
74%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 45%
55%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 58%
42%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 39%
61%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pressure"]

[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 7.5o-115
-120/+100
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 7.5u-108
-116/+107
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 7.5
-116/+106
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 7.5
-114/+104
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 7.5u-115
-120/+100
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 7.5u-104/+101
-112/+110
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 8u-120
-130/+110
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 7.5
-116/+106
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
5/07

2:10 PM


963 DET-K Lobstein (L)
964 CHW-J Quintana (L)
​
[/TD]
[TD="class: bets"] 7605
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 59%
41%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 75%
25%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 76%
24%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 81%
19%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pressure"]

[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -115/-105
8.5o-115
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 9.5o-103
-117/+108
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 9.5u-105
-119/+109
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 9o-125
-118/+108
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 9.5
-120/+100
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 9o-137/+115
-114/+111
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 9o-130
-110/-110
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 9.5
-118/+108
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
5/07

2:10 PM


965 CLE-C Kluber
966 KC-E Volquez
​
[/TD]
[TD="class: bets"] 8071
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 20%
80%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 44%
56%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 52%
48%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 33%
67%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pressure"]

[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 7.5o-120
-125/+105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"]

[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"]

[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"]

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
It will be a SMALL play for me. Intended to stay away but Lackey on a short 5.2 innings has a 9.53 ERA with this ump. Over could be right. Honestly unsure as it is also Arrieta's first start on four days this season.
 
Kluber been awful this season but owes me and pitched well in KC and still has great numbers vs them. Sharp money seems to be backing them as well as the bats are alive.

Will ride Twins vs a lefty.

Deflating game for Detroit with really no pen left.
 
Milwaukee is 6-5 in day games this season
They are 4-1 in their last 5 game and have scored 23 runs in that time. Ump last 3 years does not like home dogs.
Milwaukee only used a relief pitcher for 1 inning last night
Looking at Fiers vs Dodgers this becomes a mandatory play. 15 innings 2 runs
 
KC just saw Kluber the other day and now he has to go into Kauffman. That situation didn't work out too well for Gibson, Milone, and Salazar.
 
Real lean to Volquez. Forget the yes play. I just saw a report that shows Martinez 1-5 and Archer 1-6
 
Klubes has not been sharp, but Volquez is a true stiff.
 
That's Chief Wahoo. He's happy every day of the week, not just Thursdays.
 
GWarner27 said:
i actually like Lackey and see no reason why he won't continue to pitch well. He was an absolute stud as an Angel (especially on the road away from Anaheim) and it just took him a couple years to get TJ and come back to his old self
Click to expand...

not really a stud...if memory serves he had one year where he won like 18 and a few years where he won 14....i'll give you above average but he seems to lose a lot of low scoring games....imho
 
tuck321 said:
Its good that your avatar has a long nose. Assuming old stories about noses growing when lies are made has any truth.
Click to expand...


Which part was I lying about anyway … Kluber not being sharp or Volquez being a bum?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
BJPLAYER said:
haren vs hudson though
Click to expand...

Take it with a grain of salt (goes back to 2013), but the thing I saw about Haren was his 21 runs allowed in his L5 starts (28.1 innings pitched) following an outing in which he allowed zero runs. I thought it was interesting and was enough to make me pull the trigger on San Fran.
 
austinhous said:
Take it with a grain of salt, but the thing I saw about Haren was his 21 runs allowed in his L5 starts (28.1 innings pitched) following an outing in which he allowed zero runs. I thought it was interesting and was enough to make me pull the trigger on San Fran.
Click to expand...

interesting....thanks...tend to fade hudson automatically but may pass
 
scrambling to get to the writeups but looking at mil,stl (u),cubs,cws,cws and cleve in early games
 
Nothing more exciting than two great Thursday teams clashing on a Thursday.
 
2daBank said:
dont get me wrong, he has been very good for us and he on probably the most team friendly contract of this generation. he a bulldog and fits in perfectly with this team. that said his stuff isnt simply world class, if you force him to pitch in the zone he can be very hittable, that may be a issue today cause he prob will be able to get cubs to expand. i do think he has generally been overpriced as a card and see absolutely no reason his numbers can continue being what they have been at busch which is at least a run better than anywhere else in the world! im totally on board with the under here, i just think there value in betting arrieta as a dog as i feel he the better pitcher and love his splits vs lefties. maybe it my stubbornness that i thought this series be a split going in, and i cetainly didnt plan on having a wager on chc every stinking gm. but it is what it is, i am a fan of fading a team at that has just snapped a streak so there that too. i think we talking a 3-2 type gm here for real.. gl gw
Click to expand...

Try an experiment. Bet some on a top team. Wild guess Cardinals. Today they might lose. Long streak broken but you are not close to giving them the respect they deserve
 
lol, he's on the other side of 30, GW. You know what they say about old dogs and new tricks. He's a ticking time bomb.
 
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