Thursday screw Logan Ondrusek Discussion

GWarner27

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
angry subject lines are back...

leans from BOL open:
BAL +110
MIN +138/u7
TOR +154

on the radar:
SF u6.5
COL +139/o10

post-open leans:
BAL +110
MIN +138/u7
TOR +158
SF u7
COL o10

on the radar:
COL +130
 
Eying
Cards/Giants under 7 -120
Cards TT under (will be 3 or a heavily juiced 3')
Rangers/O's over 7'
Dbacks/Pirates FF under (will be 3' or juiced 4)
 
Chen 7-1 SU at home (7-0 L7) when he is lined ≥ 100. The average line in those games was 117. Chen allowed 18 runs in 50.0 IP and received 45 runs of support (5.6 ±1.6 rpg) in those eight games. He is averaging 5.4 ±3.2 runs of support in his 17 starts this season (4th in the MLB).

Possibly arbitrary trend that I found: Yu on the road after a previous start at home is 4-2 SU (avg line -114) and 6-0 to the over (avg tot 7.0) L6. Runs scored in those six games: 15,10,7,17,11,16.
 
Bedard is listed as a bad July pitcher. He is 1-10 away but his last 3 were with Houston and he pitched very well.
Splits not too good but not hopeless. Detroit 10-4 at home vs lefties. Splits not too good for Scherzer but Detroit is rolling right now and they lost their last 2 at Tampa and just watched Tampa sweep so looking at Max to really being focused to avenge his on loss at Tampa.
Morales on 4 this season. 1-4 6.62 ERA
 
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Cokin who has Texas as a free play lists Texas averaging 6.1 runs away vs lefties per 9 innings. Texas is 6-5 away vs lefties and is 5-1 on Thursday.
Key Element

[TABLE="width: 799"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Rangers, F5, -120 (Darvish / Chen)
BOL
Rangers: The Rangers are really bad off these days but two assets they do have going for them are Darvish and the fact that they do still hit lefties very well. They are currently (last 15) popping lefties for 5.8 earned runs per 9 while only posting 2.6 versus righties. The quality start comparison between Darvish and Chen is not even close at 14-1 versus 6-10. Public perception drives the line and right now a majority of the folks are willing to bet that the Orioles sweep against a top quality pitcher they have not seen in almost two years. I disagree.
Only play of the day.[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Scott Barry the unp strong under
3-0 for home dogs this year
Last year 0-7
Darvish on 4 3-1 2.26 ERA 51.2 innings
Wei very average
 
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tuck321 said:
Cokin who has Texas as a free play lists Texas averaging 6.1 runs away vs lefties per 9 innings. Texas is 6-5 away vs lefties and is 5-1 on Thursday.
Key Element

[TABLE="width: 799"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Rangers, F5, -120 (Darvish / Chen)
BOL
Rangers: The Rangers are really bad off these days but two assets they do have going for them are Darvish and the fact that they do still hit lefties very well. They are currently (last 15) popping lefties for 5.8 earned runs per 9 while only posting 2.6 versus righties. The quality start comparison between Darvish and Chen is not even close at 14-1 versus 6-10. Public perception drives the line and right now a majority of the folks are willing to bet that the Orioles sweep against a top quality pitcher they have not seen in almost two years. I disagree.
Only play of the day.
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Scott Barry the unp strong under
3-0 for home dogs this year
Last year 0-7
Darvish on 4 3-1 2.26 ERA 51.2 innings
Wei very average
Click to expand...

:shake:
 
The Rangers are 5-10 SU L15 v LHP against an average line of -101. The O/U in those games went 11-4 to the over (6-0 L6) against an average total of 8.5 with 12.1 ±5.5 average runs scored.The Rangers went 4-8-3 SU in the F5 innings of those 15 games.
 
The Rangers are 4-1 SU L5 Darvish starts versus LHP (since Sep 19, 2013), against an average line of -133. The over went 5-0 in those games despite the opposing teams scoring 2,2,3,2,10 runs in those five games. The Rangers scored 8,6,14,9,6 in those respective games. The only bad game out of the five was the most recent game at Oakland, where Yu has historically underperformed. The Rangers went 4-1 SU in the F5 of those five games, the only loss coming at Oakland.
 
Since 2004, teams lined as the favorite are 21-25 SU after their pitcher pitched a CG and lost in his previous start. The average line in those games was -155. When you break it down to road games you get 10-12 SU against an average line of -137.
 
The best player in baseball might be Angel Pagan if you look at teams performance with ad without. This Giants team cannot score. Got dominated by .500 Reds squad who got swept by the worst franchise in sports yesterday. It's a telling line that it's under -150 for a Cy Young caliber starter vs a 1-3 gas can.
 
In Frisco lean Frisco but it will be a small bet. Like it Under. Mortal lock that Bumgarner pitches well
In the day this season he is 6-1 ERA 2.44
With Kulpa he has an ERA of .32 based on 28.1 innings and has not lost.
I like Oakland and Detroit. No idea at the moment in Minn. Yankee manager replacement with a rested pen gets him BOSO of the year needs to go. Putting Nuno back in in the sixth and then using a clown as replacement gets him BOZO of the year award
 
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By the way those that like Toronto instead the Lean garbage how about reasons. I personally think Leans are a copout and people that seriousl want Texas swept are sick especially when Baltimore has the Boston lookahead. I did mention above playing Texas first 5 I hope.
 
I wrote about how this is a different Giant stadium due to cosmetic changes behind center field and I feel vindicated. 24-23 over at home and 17-10 over during the day. Still like it today but the 20 mph out to center is scary.
 
Dickey is 1-5 away this season. His 1 win was on 5 days rest like today and he actually did not last long and gave up two runs and that was when Detroit was 4-11 last 15 and Rick was on 5 days rest. In that game 7 hits and 4 walks. He is an old man.
Oakland is 14-6 last 20 and playing in revenge against the sweep in Toronto as well as off 3 losses in Detroit.
Toronto last 20 is 8-12 and the first win vs Milwaukee played very well and the second game 2 drunks staggered around and then someone won. This team has been going backwards and Dickey keeps getting older. after this game maybe Toronto will win but EMOTIONAL factors should make that impossible here
 
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Yu has allowed a total of 38 runs in 83.1 IP when making his debut start in opposing AL ballparks. The Rangers are 6-7 SU in those games against an average line of -143:

[TABLE="width: 805"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]Day[/TD]
[TD]Site[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Starter[/TD]
[TD]Opp[/TD]
[TD]Starter[/TD]
[TD]Final[/TD]
[TD]W/L[/TD]
[TD]O/U[/TD]
[TD]Line[/TD]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14-Apr-12[/TD]
[TD]Sat[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Yu Darvish - R[/TD]
[TD]Twins[/TD]
[TD]Nick Blackburn - R[/TD]
[TD]6-2[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]U[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-160[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19-Apr-12[/TD]
[TD]Thu[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Yu Darvish - R[/TD]
[TD]Tigers[/TD]
[TD]Adam Wilk - L[/TD]
[TD]10-3[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-120[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]30-Apr-12[/TD]
[TD]Mon[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Yu Darvish - R[/TD]
[TD]Blue Jays[/TD]
[TD]Kyle Drabek - R[/TD]
[TD]4-1[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]U[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-140[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6-May-12[/TD]
[TD]Sun[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Yu Darvish - R[/TD]
[TD]Indians[/TD]
[TD]Ubaldo Jimenez - R[/TD]
[TD]2-4[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]U[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-165[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21-May-12[/TD]
[TD]Mon[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Yu Darvish - R[/TD]
[TD]Mariners[/TD]
[TD]Felix Hernandez - R[/TD]
[TD]1-6[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-140[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2-Jun-12[/TD]
[TD]Sat[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Yu Darvish - R[/TD]
[TD]Angels[/TD]
[TD]CJ Wilson - L[/TD]
[TD]2-3[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]U[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-103[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7-Jun-12[/TD]
[TD]Thu[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Yu Darvish - R[/TD]
[TD]Athletics[/TD]
[TD]Brandon McCarthy - R[/TD]
[TD]1-7[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-150[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6-Aug-12[/TD]
[TD]Mon[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Yu Darvish - R[/TD]
[TD]Red Sox[/TD]
[TD]Aaron Cook - R[/TD]
[TD]2-9[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-137[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3-Sep-12[/TD]
[TD]Mon[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Yu Darvish - R[/TD]
[TD]Royals[/TD]
[TD]Bruce Chen - L[/TD]
[TD]8-4[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-155[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8-Sep-12[/TD]
[TD]Sat[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Yu Darvish - R[/TD]
[TD]Rays[/TD]
[TD]Chris Archer - R[/TD]
[TD]4-2[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]U[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-130[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2-Apr-13[/TD]
[TD]Tue[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Yu Darvish - R[/TD]
[TD]Astros[/TD]
[TD]Lucas Harrell - R[/TD]
[TD]7-0[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]U[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-174[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]25-Jun-13[/TD]
[TD]Tue[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Yu Darvish - R[/TD]
[TD]Yankees[/TD]
[TD]Hiroki Kuroda - R[/TD]
[TD]3-4[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]U[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-125[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24-Aug-13[/TD]
[TD]Sat[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Yu Darvish - R[/TD]
[TD]White Sox[/TD]
[TD]Hector Santiago - L[/TD]
[TD]2-3[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]U[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-190[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3-Jul-14[/TD]
[TD]Thu[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Yu Darvish - R[/TD]
[TD]Orioles[/TD]
[TD]Wei Yin Chen - L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-117[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.5[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
tuck321 said:
I did mention above playing Texas first 5 I hope.
Click to expand...

I am rolling w/ you here. BOL to us. I wanted some action on a game and, living in Texas, it is a bitch to root for the opposing team while listening to home announcers. All the trends I am finding are saying to play the over but I am still unsure. I hope the weather holds up. The only thing that bothers me is Chen's home record lined ≥ 100.
 
Nice value on Bumblefuck today to bounce back from a clunker. 3:45pm start also if you need that fix in your veins before the evening starts.
 
Fuck it, I can't back the Rangers. My bad for posting, but good god, they are 2-12 SU L14, the only two wins coming against the Twins in Arlington, and 0-8 SU L8 versus the AL. Add that to Darvish's 4.10 ERA when making his debut at AL ballparks, and Chen's 7-1 SU record lined ≥ 100 at home. I bought out, going to give the book about $20 just because I'm a fucktard. The Angels swept them, the Tigers swept them, and now it's the O's turn. Maybe it gets rained out.
 
Inspekdah said:
The best player in baseball might be Angel Pagan if you look at teams performance with ad without. This Giants team cannot score. Got dominated by .500 Reds squad who got swept by the worst franchise in sports yesterday. It's a telling line that it's under -150 for a Cy Young caliber starter vs a 1-3 gas can.
Click to expand...

you right
 
Regarding Colorado. Colorado has come back from road trips 6 times. First game back went 4-2 over. The 2 that went under had Jorge. See no real reason this does not fly over. Not talking about 2 happy teams.
 
austinhous said:
Fuck it, I can't back the Rangers. My bad for posting, but good god, they are 2-12 SU L14, the only two wins coming against the Twins in Arlington, and 0-8 SU L8 versus the AL. Add that to Darvish's 4.10 ERA when making his debut at AL ballparks, and Chen's 7-1 SU record lined ≥ 100 at home. I bought out, going to give the book about $20 just because I'm a fucktard. The Angels swept them, the Tigers swept them, and now it's the O's turn. Maybe it gets rained out.
Click to expand...
You do understand that Baltimore has not swept ANY team at home this year in a 3 or 4 game series.
Adding a game bet
 
By the way there are a lot of games I have not even looked at. Opinions---reasoning anyone?
 
Tuck you are right, the O's have only swept one series at home since last season. They swept the Yankees last June but that's it since all of 2013. The O's are 6-12 SU since 2004 going for the home sweep as the underdog. The over hit 11 times in those 18 games and opposing teams averaged 6.7 runs per game.
 
BEDARD is 6-23 (-16.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

SCHERZER is 10-0 (+10.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
 
[TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: matchupCells Text, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]HUGHES is 11-5 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: matchupCells Text, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]HUGHES is 27-7 (+19.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss in his career. (Team's Record)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Totally wrong. Burmgarner history with Kulpa total trap and day record meaningless
 
Scherzer has pitched really bad at home. 17 runs last 3 games. Still see Detroit the better team but need to read more here.
 
This is the problem with snap trends. You actually have to look at what is going on.
 
Dodgers 9-1 SU on road vs. LH's, hitting .235 and scoring 4.28 r/9. Dodgers are 7-3 under the total in those games.
 
There is no real value Right now Tanaka is the much better pitcher and I am really curious why based on their established MO anyone likes Baltimore. Waiting --any write up?
 
Anaheim off a road series has won every home game. That does not mean they win today. I do still think Detroit wins just worried about Scherzer
 
Oberholtzer in his last 3 starts has been very good. Shoemaker--not sure bad at night good at home very new
Still waiting for a write up
 
I imagine it might fit Colorado to wait for tomorrow but still think they hit. Usually show for first game of a home game.
 
Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Yankees are 10-0 since May 20, 2005 as a road favorite after a loss in which they left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- When RA Dickey starts the Blue Jays are 0-10 on the road after giving up 6 or fewer hits in a game where they did not win by 3+ runs for a net profit of $1019 when playing against.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Dodgers are 22-4 since June 27, 2013 as a 130+ favorite it is the first game of the series. 8-4 this season.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Phillies are 0-9 since August 28, 2005 on the road after being shutout and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $1110 when playing against.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- When Max Scherzer starts the Tigers are 20-1 since June 15, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite after more strike outs than hits allowed on the road for a net profit of $1855.
 
I like those tiger trends play and tuck. They are system play too. All their pitchers stepped up vs. A's. Seems like a tiger run in effect.
 
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