Thursday Night Football: Best Bets for Week 17
Best Bets for Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This game presents a unique situational betting opportunity because it’s rare to get to bet against a team that truly doesn’t care. The Broncos are in the driver’s seat for the number one seed, which would secure them a bye for the first round of the playoffs. Moreover, this is a “get right” game following a loss, just like their 28-3 victory over a Cincinnati team whose star quarterback was injured. Conversely, as evident in their 17-point loss last week to the 3-12 Titans, the Chiefs are disinterested because they have been eliminated from playoff contention.
Kansas City is down its top two quarterbacks. Chris Oladokun, a former seventh-round draft pick and practice squad member whom the Steelers had released before the regular season began, will start. The Chiefs’ defense will likewise be disadvantaged because First-Team All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie seems far from being able to play. Due to a knee injury, he missed last week’s game and has been unable to practice this week. I have no idea why the Chiefs would want to hurry him back. As I will discuss when explaining my best bets for Thursday, the Chiefs do not enter this game with a motivation to win or to cover the spread.
Thursday Night Odds
Oddsmakers could not possibly know how to come up with a spread that adequately quantifies Kansas City’s disinterest. The Chiefs were a 5.5-point underdog before their game against Tennessee. After losing badly to the Titans, the spread surged 7.5 points in Denver’s favor. The line seems to have settled. I could imagine bettors being swayed by the name Kansas City to bet on the Chiefs as they are at home and facing their division rivals.
Thursday Night Picks (Broncos -13 at -110 with BetOnline)
One might think that the Chiefs could be motivated to spoil things for their division rival. But recall Week 17 last year when the Broncos, to make the postseason, needed to beat a Chiefs team, in Kansas City, that had nothing to gain by winning. Denver won 38-0. While the Chiefs were mostly playing backups, backups should be more motivated because they can use the opportunity to show what they can do. Conversely, Travis Kelce, for example, looked utterly disinterested against the Titans last week. Chiefs’ starters are used to playing in the postseason – they had won consecutive Super Bowls before losing in the Super Bowl last year and had amassed ten consecutive postseason berths. The situation is unique because the Chiefs could never accept the fact that they are eliminated from postseason play. Therefore, they are the last team that could be excited to play spoiler.
Their 17-point loss in Tennessee revealed just how bad their apathy can cause them to be. Tennessee is one of the NFL’s worst teams. The Titans had only beaten Arizona and Cleveland and had done so by a combined total of four points. They lost by ten points to the likes of Las Vegas and by over 20 points in both of their games against Indianapolis. Their scoring defense, which held Kansas City to nine points, still only ranks 26th. Rookie quarterback Cam Ward has been awful. Before last week, his passer rating exceeded 100 points in one game – when it was 101.2 against San Francisco because he accumulated a lot of garbage-time production when the game was decided. It was 122.3 against Kansas City. Likewise, a Tennessee team that still only ranks 29th in rush offense amassed 164 rushing yards against the Chiefs. These statistical facts help indicate why it always felt like the Chiefs’ deficit, even when it reached 17 points, inadequately described the extent to which they were inferior.
Kansas City’s disinterest on defense and partly injury-induced ineptitude on offense that is led by its third-string quarterback explain why I foresee a reiteration of Denver’s 28-3 win over Cincinnati if not of its 38-0 win over the Chiefs in Week 17 last year. The Broncos scored 22 points against a then-motivated Kansas City team in Week 11 and owns the fourth-ranked total defense. I can’t imagine the Chiefs exceeding ten points even if Denver quarterback Bo Nix were to throw an interception that puts them in propitious field position. I’m seeing a 31-9 Denver victory. Therefore, wager on Denver -13.
Denver’s Bo Nix Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-120) at Bovada
Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has exceeded 300 passing yards in each of his team’s last two games. The Broncos have had to rely more on NIx’s passing since their starting running back JK Dobbins sustained an injury. With Dobbins still sidelined, Nix’s arm will continue to be a more central element of Denver’s offense. The Broncos can count on Nix against a disinterested Chiefs pass defense that just allowed Titans quarterback Cam Ward to exceed his yards-per-game average by 37 while completing 75 percent of his passes, throwing two touchdowns to no interceptions, and being able to rely heavily on his offense’s rush attack. Denver’s reliance on Nix makes him the best player prop option on his team – as well as in this game.
Best Bets for Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This game presents a unique situational betting opportunity because it’s rare to get to bet against a team that truly doesn’t care. The Broncos are in the driver’s seat for the number one seed, which would secure them a bye for the first round of the playoffs. Moreover, this is a “get right” game following a loss, just like their 28-3 victory over a Cincinnati team whose star quarterback was injured. Conversely, as evident in their 17-point loss last week to the 3-12 Titans, the Chiefs are disinterested because they have been eliminated from playoff contention.
Kansas City is down its top two quarterbacks. Chris Oladokun, a former seventh-round draft pick and practice squad member whom the Steelers had released before the regular season began, will start. The Chiefs’ defense will likewise be disadvantaged because First-Team All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie seems far from being able to play. Due to a knee injury, he missed last week’s game and has been unable to practice this week. I have no idea why the Chiefs would want to hurry him back. As I will discuss when explaining my best bets for Thursday, the Chiefs do not enter this game with a motivation to win or to cover the spread.
Thursday Night Odds
Oddsmakers could not possibly know how to come up with a spread that adequately quantifies Kansas City’s disinterest. The Chiefs were a 5.5-point underdog before their game against Tennessee. After losing badly to the Titans, the spread surged 7.5 points in Denver’s favor. The line seems to have settled. I could imagine bettors being swayed by the name Kansas City to bet on the Chiefs as they are at home and facing their division rivals.
Thursday Night Picks (Broncos -13 at -110 with BetOnline)
One might think that the Chiefs could be motivated to spoil things for their division rival. But recall Week 17 last year when the Broncos, to make the postseason, needed to beat a Chiefs team, in Kansas City, that had nothing to gain by winning. Denver won 38-0. While the Chiefs were mostly playing backups, backups should be more motivated because they can use the opportunity to show what they can do. Conversely, Travis Kelce, for example, looked utterly disinterested against the Titans last week. Chiefs’ starters are used to playing in the postseason – they had won consecutive Super Bowls before losing in the Super Bowl last year and had amassed ten consecutive postseason berths. The situation is unique because the Chiefs could never accept the fact that they are eliminated from postseason play. Therefore, they are the last team that could be excited to play spoiler.
Their 17-point loss in Tennessee revealed just how bad their apathy can cause them to be. Tennessee is one of the NFL’s worst teams. The Titans had only beaten Arizona and Cleveland and had done so by a combined total of four points. They lost by ten points to the likes of Las Vegas and by over 20 points in both of their games against Indianapolis. Their scoring defense, which held Kansas City to nine points, still only ranks 26th. Rookie quarterback Cam Ward has been awful. Before last week, his passer rating exceeded 100 points in one game – when it was 101.2 against San Francisco because he accumulated a lot of garbage-time production when the game was decided. It was 122.3 against Kansas City. Likewise, a Tennessee team that still only ranks 29th in rush offense amassed 164 rushing yards against the Chiefs. These statistical facts help indicate why it always felt like the Chiefs’ deficit, even when it reached 17 points, inadequately described the extent to which they were inferior.
Kansas City’s disinterest on defense and partly injury-induced ineptitude on offense that is led by its third-string quarterback explain why I foresee a reiteration of Denver’s 28-3 win over Cincinnati if not of its 38-0 win over the Chiefs in Week 17 last year. The Broncos scored 22 points against a then-motivated Kansas City team in Week 11 and owns the fourth-ranked total defense. I can’t imagine the Chiefs exceeding ten points even if Denver quarterback Bo Nix were to throw an interception that puts them in propitious field position. I’m seeing a 31-9 Denver victory. Therefore, wager on Denver -13.
Denver’s Bo Nix Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-120) at Bovada
Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has exceeded 300 passing yards in each of his team’s last two games. The Broncos have had to rely more on NIx’s passing since their starting running back JK Dobbins sustained an injury. With Dobbins still sidelined, Nix’s arm will continue to be a more central element of Denver’s offense. The Broncos can count on Nix against a disinterested Chiefs pass defense that just allowed Titans quarterback Cam Ward to exceed his yards-per-game average by 37 while completing 75 percent of his passes, throwing two touchdowns to no interceptions, and being able to rely heavily on his offense’s rush attack. Denver’s reliance on Nix makes him the best player prop option on his team – as well as in this game.
