MLB Bet or Fade for June 19: Houston, We Have Liftoff
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals
Thursday, June 19, 2025 at 1:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park
Making Sense of the Rockies
Colorado is a team that every bettor knows to be terrible. But the Rockies have won four games in a row. Is the narrative changing?
The answer is "no, but." While we can't simply dismiss their chances outright, we can't forget that they are a historically bad team.
Their lineup returned to its usual anemic self when they scored three runs in their last game. They were still able to win because their starting pitcher for that game, German Marquez, has improved significantly.
My point here is that the Rockies are still one of three teams to average fewer than three runs per game and that they start a guy in Chase Dollander today who is radically worse than Marquez.
Chase Dollander's Struggles
In contrast to Marquez, Dollander has allowed a combined total of eight earned runs in his last two games.
Dollander is a rookie who is still struggling with his control. In addition to walking a lot of batters, he gives up hard contact at a high rate. This is the conflict that bad pitchers usually face: they either miss the strike zone and walk batters, or they throw pitches inside the strike zone and get slammed.
Matchup Edge
The Nationals will try to avoid being swept by lowly Colorado today. Their motivation will enable them to make the most of their matchup edge.
Whereas Washington ranks ninth with a .458 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties, Colorado outside of its uniquely hitter-friendly ballpark slugs .342 against Washington starter Trevor Williams' favorite pitches from righties.
Parlay Leg 1: Nationals First-Five ML at -141 with BetOnline
Game 1 Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
Thursday, June 19, 2025 at 1:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park
The Dominant Tarik Skubal
Southpaw Tarik Skubal starts for the Tigers today.
Skubal is perfectly reliable. He has allowed a combined total of one run in his last four starts.
It's not like he's simply been facing soft competition. He even thrived against the Cubs with their second-ranking offense.
When he faces Pittsburgh's lineup today, which ranks second-to-last in runs per game away from home and ranks second-to-last with a .318 slugging rate against lefties, you should trust him more than you trust your wife.
Outlook for Detroit's Lineup
The Tigers can't wait to face Pittsburgh starter Andrew Heaney today.
Heaney's ERA might make him seem to be a formidable pitcher.
However, he has benefited from a fortunately low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and an unsustainably high strand rate. His 4.42 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows that he is not scary and reiterates that he is vastly inferior to Skubal.
Detroit's lineup also matches up very well against Heaney.
The Tigers rank second with a .481 slugging rate against Heaney's favorite pitches from lefties.
Parlay Leg 2: Tigers First-Five ML at -325 with BetOnline
Parlay: Nationals First-Five ML (-141) & Tigers First-Five ML (-325) at +124 with BetOnline
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Thursday, June 19, 2025 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Truist Park
Clay Holmes Is Overrated
For the Mets tonight, Clay Holmes starts.
Holmes already enjoyed a tremendous reputation entering this season, so it is easy to look at his ERA and to think that he's simply fantastic.
However, his poor 3.93 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows that he has actually regressed significantly.
Indeed, he is striking out batters at a significantly lower rate and is allowing almost twice as many home runs per nine innings than he did last season.
His transition to the starting role is not actually going well. It is a matter of time before this is reflected in terms of ERA, in terms of actual runs.
Atlanta is going to begin to expose Holmes today. The Braves are one of the best teams at slugging his favorite pitches from righties. This is especially obvious in Atlanta where their lineup is significantly stronger than it is on the road. At home, they slug .446 against Holmes' favorite pitches from righties.
Spencer Strider
Spencer Strider starts for the Braves tonight.
His last start at home against the pathetic Rockies notwithstanding, Strider has been very down this year.
His stuff hasn't been as good, as evident in the velocity decline that his pitches have experienced. Relative to his career averages, he is striking out fewer batters and allowing more walks and home runs.
Mets batters already love to face him. They boast a collective .562 slugging rate with him on the mound. Now they get to face a weaker version of him.
Best Bet: First-Five over 4.5 at +102 with BetOnline
Houston Astros vs. Athletics
Thursday, June 19, 2025 at 10:05 p.m. At Sutter Health Park
Houston's Matchup Advantage
The pitching matchup clearly favors the Astros today.
Houston starts Colton Gordon, against whose favorite pitches from lefties the Athletics rank dead-last with a .274 slugging rate.
The Athletics start Jacob Lopez. Houston ranks number one with a .565 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Astros First-Five -0.5 at +110 with BetOnline
Game I Am Passing On
I thought that I might find a worthwhile wager for Guardians-Giants. Logan Webb is a consistent and excellent pitcher for the Giants, and Cleveland starter Gavin Williams matches up very well against San Francisco's lineup.
However, the total feels very low at seven. The "under" could hit, but it would be tight. Let's avoid a heart attack and stick to confident plays.
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals
Thursday, June 19, 2025 at 1:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park
Making Sense of the Rockies
Colorado is a team that every bettor knows to be terrible. But the Rockies have won four games in a row. Is the narrative changing?
The answer is "no, but." While we can't simply dismiss their chances outright, we can't forget that they are a historically bad team.
Their lineup returned to its usual anemic self when they scored three runs in their last game. They were still able to win because their starting pitcher for that game, German Marquez, has improved significantly.
My point here is that the Rockies are still one of three teams to average fewer than three runs per game and that they start a guy in Chase Dollander today who is radically worse than Marquez.
Chase Dollander's Struggles
In contrast to Marquez, Dollander has allowed a combined total of eight earned runs in his last two games.
Dollander is a rookie who is still struggling with his control. In addition to walking a lot of batters, he gives up hard contact at a high rate. This is the conflict that bad pitchers usually face: they either miss the strike zone and walk batters, or they throw pitches inside the strike zone and get slammed.
Matchup Edge
The Nationals will try to avoid being swept by lowly Colorado today. Their motivation will enable them to make the most of their matchup edge.
Whereas Washington ranks ninth with a .458 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties, Colorado outside of its uniquely hitter-friendly ballpark slugs .342 against Washington starter Trevor Williams' favorite pitches from righties.
Parlay Leg 1: Nationals First-Five ML at -141 with BetOnline
Game 1 Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
Thursday, June 19, 2025 at 1:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park
The Dominant Tarik Skubal
Southpaw Tarik Skubal starts for the Tigers today.
Skubal is perfectly reliable. He has allowed a combined total of one run in his last four starts.
It's not like he's simply been facing soft competition. He even thrived against the Cubs with their second-ranking offense.
When he faces Pittsburgh's lineup today, which ranks second-to-last in runs per game away from home and ranks second-to-last with a .318 slugging rate against lefties, you should trust him more than you trust your wife.
Outlook for Detroit's Lineup
The Tigers can't wait to face Pittsburgh starter Andrew Heaney today.
Heaney's ERA might make him seem to be a formidable pitcher.
However, he has benefited from a fortunately low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and an unsustainably high strand rate. His 4.42 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows that he is not scary and reiterates that he is vastly inferior to Skubal.
Detroit's lineup also matches up very well against Heaney.
The Tigers rank second with a .481 slugging rate against Heaney's favorite pitches from lefties.
Parlay Leg 2: Tigers First-Five ML at -325 with BetOnline
Parlay: Nationals First-Five ML (-141) & Tigers First-Five ML (-325) at +124 with BetOnline
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Thursday, June 19, 2025 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Truist Park
Clay Holmes Is Overrated
For the Mets tonight, Clay Holmes starts.
Holmes already enjoyed a tremendous reputation entering this season, so it is easy to look at his ERA and to think that he's simply fantastic.
However, his poor 3.93 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows that he has actually regressed significantly.
Indeed, he is striking out batters at a significantly lower rate and is allowing almost twice as many home runs per nine innings than he did last season.
His transition to the starting role is not actually going well. It is a matter of time before this is reflected in terms of ERA, in terms of actual runs.
Atlanta is going to begin to expose Holmes today. The Braves are one of the best teams at slugging his favorite pitches from righties. This is especially obvious in Atlanta where their lineup is significantly stronger than it is on the road. At home, they slug .446 against Holmes' favorite pitches from righties.
Spencer Strider
Spencer Strider starts for the Braves tonight.
His last start at home against the pathetic Rockies notwithstanding, Strider has been very down this year.
His stuff hasn't been as good, as evident in the velocity decline that his pitches have experienced. Relative to his career averages, he is striking out fewer batters and allowing more walks and home runs.
Mets batters already love to face him. They boast a collective .562 slugging rate with him on the mound. Now they get to face a weaker version of him.
Best Bet: First-Five over 4.5 at +102 with BetOnline
Houston Astros vs. Athletics
Thursday, June 19, 2025 at 10:05 p.m. At Sutter Health Park
Houston's Matchup Advantage
The pitching matchup clearly favors the Astros today.
Houston starts Colton Gordon, against whose favorite pitches from lefties the Athletics rank dead-last with a .274 slugging rate.
The Athletics start Jacob Lopez. Houston ranks number one with a .565 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Astros First-Five -0.5 at +110 with BetOnline
Game I Am Passing On
I thought that I might find a worthwhile wager for Guardians-Giants. Logan Webb is a consistent and excellent pitcher for the Giants, and Cleveland starter Gavin Williams matches up very well against San Francisco's lineup.
However, the total feels very low at seven. The "under" could hit, but it would be tight. Let's avoid a heart attack and stick to confident plays.
very interesting, tiger compared to perfectly clean cap and gambling is supposed to devour you.
