MLB Bet or Fade for May 29: Washington Is Building a Winning Team
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Thursday, May 29, 2025 at 7:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre
The Growing Jacob Lopez
Jacob Lopez starts for the Athletics tonight.
Lopez is not highly thought of among baseball bettors, but this will soon change.
It is true that he was blasted on April 29 and did not pitch until May 23.
But his last outing, on May 23, exhibits his value as an MLB pitcher. He held the Phillies to one run in seven innings. They walked once and struck out eight times.
It feels easy to dismiss a single outing, but what happened in it creates a strong outlook for his future because he discovered a strategy that is both effective and sustainable.
In particular, he did a great job mixing his pitches. While he still favors his fastball, he no longer relies on it too extensively.
Lopez vs. Blue Jays Batters
Lopez throws four different pitches, but his three favorite ones are crucial.
His four-seam fastball, slider, and cutter combine to make up almost 95 percent of his arsenal.
Toronto's offensive outlook tonight is negative because its lineup matches up poorly against Lopez. The Blue Jays rank 25th with a .352 slugging rate against Lopez's favorite pitches from lefties.
Athletics on the Road
The Athletics are a great underdog tonight with their strong pitching and their enhanced ability to perform on the road, where their record is substantially better than it is at home.
Their lineup's outlook is also solid against Jose Berrios, who starts for the Blue Jays tonight. The Athletics' lineup does an even better job against his favorite pitches in road games — where it slugs .431 against those pitches from righties — than it does at home.
Better hitting will power the Athletics to a victory as the underdog.
Best Bet: Athletics ML at +129 with BetOnline
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
Thursday, May 29, 2025 at Daikin Park
Tampa Bay's Promising Starter
Shane Baz starts for the Rays tonight.
Baz's ERA makes him look unattractive, but one can't simply dismiss him, because he is great in the right spot.
He also enters today's game with momentum that he'll look to continue, as he held the Blue Jays to one run in 5.2 innings in his most recent outing.
His stuff exhibits powerful velocity, with his fastball averaging almost 97 mph, and great spin. He mixes up velocities and locations well, with his high heat effectively complementing his knuckle curve that he rather locates in the lower part of the strike zone.
Baz vs. Astros Batters
On offense, Houston's outlook is negative tonight because it slugs below average against Baz's favorite pitches from righties.
This matchup detail reinforces what we know about the track record of Houston's hitters against Baz. They slug .324 with him on the mound.
Houston's Awful Starter
Houston starts Ryan Gusto tonight.
Gusto is a good reliever, but starting and relieving are two completely different things because a pitcher has to change a lot about himself when he tries to last for many innings.
Gusto's 5.96 ERA, and more specifically his strengthened tendency to allow walks and home runs, as a starter shows that he is really struggling in the starter role. As such, he is worth fading in his starts.
Best Bet: Rays ML at -104 with BetOnline
Washington Nationals vs. Seattle Mariners
Thursday, May 29, 2025 at 9:40 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park
Washington's Starter
MacKenzie Gore starts for the Nationals tonight.
Gore looks to build off his last start in which he limited the Giants to two hits and one run in six innings.
While Gore is a lefty and the Giants are known to struggle against left-handed pitching, we can't use those struggles to minimize Gore's outlook tonight, because the Mariners struggle against Gore's favorite pitches.
Gore relies most heavily on a four-seam fastball and curveball. Seattle ranks 21st with a .374 slugging rate against these pitches from lefties.
Emerson Hancock at Home
Seattle starts Emerson Hancock tonight.
The Mariners are chalked in this matchup because they are playing at home, but playing at home creates a disadvantage for their starting pitcher.
Hancock has been awful in every home start. Whereas his road ERA is 3.25, it is 12.34 at home.
His poor recent form must substantiate one's confidence in the Nationals tonight.
Full-Game Play
One has heard the narrative about Washington's bullpen, but the Nationals are making conspicuous efforts to improve it.
Adding Andrew Chafin with his 2.25 ERA certainly helps.
Washington's ability to use its bullpen to shut out the Mariners yesterday is something that they can and will build off of.
Best Bet: Nationals ML at -105 with BetOnline
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Thursday, May 29, 2025 at 7:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre
The Growing Jacob Lopez
Jacob Lopez starts for the Athletics tonight.
Lopez is not highly thought of among baseball bettors, but this will soon change.
It is true that he was blasted on April 29 and did not pitch until May 23.
But his last outing, on May 23, exhibits his value as an MLB pitcher. He held the Phillies to one run in seven innings. They walked once and struck out eight times.
It feels easy to dismiss a single outing, but what happened in it creates a strong outlook for his future because he discovered a strategy that is both effective and sustainable.
In particular, he did a great job mixing his pitches. While he still favors his fastball, he no longer relies on it too extensively.
Lopez vs. Blue Jays Batters
Lopez throws four different pitches, but his three favorite ones are crucial.
His four-seam fastball, slider, and cutter combine to make up almost 95 percent of his arsenal.
Toronto's offensive outlook tonight is negative because its lineup matches up poorly against Lopez. The Blue Jays rank 25th with a .352 slugging rate against Lopez's favorite pitches from lefties.
Athletics on the Road
The Athletics are a great underdog tonight with their strong pitching and their enhanced ability to perform on the road, where their record is substantially better than it is at home.
Their lineup's outlook is also solid against Jose Berrios, who starts for the Blue Jays tonight. The Athletics' lineup does an even better job against his favorite pitches in road games — where it slugs .431 against those pitches from righties — than it does at home.
Better hitting will power the Athletics to a victory as the underdog.
Best Bet: Athletics ML at +129 with BetOnline
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
Thursday, May 29, 2025 at Daikin Park
Tampa Bay's Promising Starter
Shane Baz starts for the Rays tonight.
Baz's ERA makes him look unattractive, but one can't simply dismiss him, because he is great in the right spot.
He also enters today's game with momentum that he'll look to continue, as he held the Blue Jays to one run in 5.2 innings in his most recent outing.
His stuff exhibits powerful velocity, with his fastball averaging almost 97 mph, and great spin. He mixes up velocities and locations well, with his high heat effectively complementing his knuckle curve that he rather locates in the lower part of the strike zone.
Baz vs. Astros Batters
On offense, Houston's outlook is negative tonight because it slugs below average against Baz's favorite pitches from righties.
This matchup detail reinforces what we know about the track record of Houston's hitters against Baz. They slug .324 with him on the mound.
Houston's Awful Starter
Houston starts Ryan Gusto tonight.
Gusto is a good reliever, but starting and relieving are two completely different things because a pitcher has to change a lot about himself when he tries to last for many innings.
Gusto's 5.96 ERA, and more specifically his strengthened tendency to allow walks and home runs, as a starter shows that he is really struggling in the starter role. As such, he is worth fading in his starts.
Best Bet: Rays ML at -104 with BetOnline
Washington Nationals vs. Seattle Mariners
Thursday, May 29, 2025 at 9:40 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park
Washington's Starter
MacKenzie Gore starts for the Nationals tonight.
Gore looks to build off his last start in which he limited the Giants to two hits and one run in six innings.
While Gore is a lefty and the Giants are known to struggle against left-handed pitching, we can't use those struggles to minimize Gore's outlook tonight, because the Mariners struggle against Gore's favorite pitches.
Gore relies most heavily on a four-seam fastball and curveball. Seattle ranks 21st with a .374 slugging rate against these pitches from lefties.
Emerson Hancock at Home
Seattle starts Emerson Hancock tonight.
The Mariners are chalked in this matchup because they are playing at home, but playing at home creates a disadvantage for their starting pitcher.
Hancock has been awful in every home start. Whereas his road ERA is 3.25, it is 12.34 at home.
His poor recent form must substantiate one's confidence in the Nationals tonight.
Full-Game Play
One has heard the narrative about Washington's bullpen, but the Nationals are making conspicuous efforts to improve it.
Adding Andrew Chafin with his 2.25 ERA certainly helps.
Washington's ability to use its bullpen to shut out the Mariners yesterday is something that they can and will build off of.
Best Bet: Nationals ML at -105 with BetOnline
