MLB Bet or Fade for May 26: Minnesota's Starter Has Turned Things Around
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs
Monday, May 26, 2025 at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field
Respect for Colorado's Starter
I get that everybody wants to fade the Rockies. People see the ERA of their starter today Carson Palmquist and think that today provides an ideal opportunity to fade them.
However, advanced metrics show that Palmquist deserves respect. In his one start outside of his radically hitter-friendly ballpark, he yielded a 3.83 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in Chase Field against a Diamondbacks team that matched up optimally against him on paper.
Lundquist's outlook today is particularly good because — hence the low total — the wind is blowing strongly in today. This is very important for him because he is a heavy fly-ball-inducing pitcher. A home run is just a fly ball that goes out of the ballpark. The wind today will keep Lundquist's fly balls inside the ballpark.
Even if the wind weren't in his favor, his outlook is strong against a Cubs lineup that struggles to hit during the day.
People want to bet the Cubs because of how good their overall hitting stats are, but they overlook the great decline that their lineup experiences in day games.
Chicago's Struggling Starter
Jameson Taillon starts for the Cubs today.
He is fade-worthy because he enters today's game in gross form. After getting blasted by the Mets, his FIP was over 5.65 in each of his last two starts, both of which came against the lowly Marlins.
His poor form helps indicate that the Rockies are a great dog today.
Best Bet: Rockies Run-Line (+1.5) at +140 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Monday, May 26, 2025 at 6:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field
Yamamoto's Vulnerability
The Dodgers start Yoshinobu Yamamoto today.
Much hype has always surrounded Yamamoto. The predominant narrative emphasizes the quality of his pitches and generally his excellence as a pitcher.
Yamamoto's favorite pitches are his four-seam fastball, split-finger, and curveball.
Despite the narrative, one cannot blindly back Yamamoto, because, as his recent starts show, he has proven to be vulnerable against teams that hit his favorite pitches well.
In his first start against the Diamondbacks on May 8, for example, he allowed five earned runs in five innings. They rank first in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Against the Athletics who rank fifth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties, in his following start which took place at home, he yielded a 4.50 ERA and 4.25 FIP.
Outlook for Cleveland's Lineup
I like Cleveland's lineup today because it matches up well against Yamamoto.
The Guardians rank eighth with a .439 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Outlook for Cleveland's Starter
Gavin Williams starts for the Guardians today.
Williams primarily features a four-seam fastball, sweeper, and curveball.
His fastball is tough for opposing batters to keep up with — it averages 96.9 mph.
This is his favorite pitch, and it will be tough for the Dodgers, who slug .357 against power pitchers, to keep up with.
Williams' other favorite pitches both impressively yield a slugging rate below .282.
The Dodgers are anyhow cold at the plate. They enter today's game having scored a combined total of three runs in their last two games. They have struggled in general since they exploded for 19 runs on May 15.
It is hard to expect them to turn things around against Williams in Cleveland.
Best Bet: Guardians First-Five Money-Line at +135 with BetOnline
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Monday, May 26, 2025 at 7:05 p.m. ET at George M. Steinbrenner Field
Key Trend
Tampa Bay looks attractive to bettors swayed by recency bias, because it exploded for 13 runs yesterday.
However, the Rays have an unequivocal tendency to suffer a let-down after such an explosion.
They are 0-3 in a game following one in which they amassed ten or more runs. They scored a combined total of five runs in those three games.
This let-down trend makes the Twins a solid full-game play.
Don't Give Up on Chris Paddack
Minnesota starts Chris Paddack today.
Some people have long dismissed him because he really struggled after his fantastic first season in 2019.
The negative narrative on Paddack has been buttressed by his poor ERA in recent years.
But Paddack has turned things around. While his FIP lags behind his 3.98 ERA and thus seems to suggest a problem with him, both are strongly inflated by his season-opening start in which he allowed nine earned runs in three innings.
It would obviously be ridiculous to be influenced, in late May, by his performance on March 31. We have to consider how he is currently pitching.
I like Paddack today in particular, because his form is strong: he enters today's game having allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last three starts.
Minnesota's Bats Are Ready
Twins batters must be eager to face Tampa Bay's starter, Zack Littell.
Together, they slug .605 against Littell.
Ty France, for example, is 2-for-6 with a home run with him on the mound.
Minnesota's bats will help ensure a strong Twins victory today.
Best Bet: Twins ML at +109 with BetOnline
Bet I Am Passing On
Pittsburgh vs. Arizona looked interesting to me at first glance, but it is worth passing on. While Pittsburgh is pretty much an auto-fade on the road, it is impossible to like especially a strongly favored Arizona team given the extent of its current struggles.
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs
Monday, May 26, 2025 at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field
Respect for Colorado's Starter
I get that everybody wants to fade the Rockies. People see the ERA of their starter today Carson Palmquist and think that today provides an ideal opportunity to fade them.
However, advanced metrics show that Palmquist deserves respect. In his one start outside of his radically hitter-friendly ballpark, he yielded a 3.83 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in Chase Field against a Diamondbacks team that matched up optimally against him on paper.
Lundquist's outlook today is particularly good because — hence the low total — the wind is blowing strongly in today. This is very important for him because he is a heavy fly-ball-inducing pitcher. A home run is just a fly ball that goes out of the ballpark. The wind today will keep Lundquist's fly balls inside the ballpark.
Even if the wind weren't in his favor, his outlook is strong against a Cubs lineup that struggles to hit during the day.
People want to bet the Cubs because of how good their overall hitting stats are, but they overlook the great decline that their lineup experiences in day games.
Chicago's Struggling Starter
Jameson Taillon starts for the Cubs today.
He is fade-worthy because he enters today's game in gross form. After getting blasted by the Mets, his FIP was over 5.65 in each of his last two starts, both of which came against the lowly Marlins.
His poor form helps indicate that the Rockies are a great dog today.
Best Bet: Rockies Run-Line (+1.5) at +140 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Monday, May 26, 2025 at 6:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field
Yamamoto's Vulnerability
The Dodgers start Yoshinobu Yamamoto today.
Much hype has always surrounded Yamamoto. The predominant narrative emphasizes the quality of his pitches and generally his excellence as a pitcher.
Yamamoto's favorite pitches are his four-seam fastball, split-finger, and curveball.
Despite the narrative, one cannot blindly back Yamamoto, because, as his recent starts show, he has proven to be vulnerable against teams that hit his favorite pitches well.
In his first start against the Diamondbacks on May 8, for example, he allowed five earned runs in five innings. They rank first in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Against the Athletics who rank fifth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties, in his following start which took place at home, he yielded a 4.50 ERA and 4.25 FIP.
Outlook for Cleveland's Lineup
I like Cleveland's lineup today because it matches up well against Yamamoto.
The Guardians rank eighth with a .439 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Outlook for Cleveland's Starter
Gavin Williams starts for the Guardians today.
Williams primarily features a four-seam fastball, sweeper, and curveball.
His fastball is tough for opposing batters to keep up with — it averages 96.9 mph.
This is his favorite pitch, and it will be tough for the Dodgers, who slug .357 against power pitchers, to keep up with.
Williams' other favorite pitches both impressively yield a slugging rate below .282.
The Dodgers are anyhow cold at the plate. They enter today's game having scored a combined total of three runs in their last two games. They have struggled in general since they exploded for 19 runs on May 15.
It is hard to expect them to turn things around against Williams in Cleveland.
Best Bet: Guardians First-Five Money-Line at +135 with BetOnline
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Monday, May 26, 2025 at 7:05 p.m. ET at George M. Steinbrenner Field
Key Trend
Tampa Bay looks attractive to bettors swayed by recency bias, because it exploded for 13 runs yesterday.
However, the Rays have an unequivocal tendency to suffer a let-down after such an explosion.
They are 0-3 in a game following one in which they amassed ten or more runs. They scored a combined total of five runs in those three games.
This let-down trend makes the Twins a solid full-game play.
Don't Give Up on Chris Paddack
Minnesota starts Chris Paddack today.
Some people have long dismissed him because he really struggled after his fantastic first season in 2019.
The negative narrative on Paddack has been buttressed by his poor ERA in recent years.
But Paddack has turned things around. While his FIP lags behind his 3.98 ERA and thus seems to suggest a problem with him, both are strongly inflated by his season-opening start in which he allowed nine earned runs in three innings.
It would obviously be ridiculous to be influenced, in late May, by his performance on March 31. We have to consider how he is currently pitching.
I like Paddack today in particular, because his form is strong: he enters today's game having allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last three starts.
Minnesota's Bats Are Ready
Twins batters must be eager to face Tampa Bay's starter, Zack Littell.
Together, they slug .605 against Littell.
Ty France, for example, is 2-for-6 with a home run with him on the mound.
Minnesota's bats will help ensure a strong Twins victory today.
Best Bet: Twins ML at +109 with BetOnline
Bet I Am Passing On
Pittsburgh vs. Arizona looked interesting to me at first glance, but it is worth passing on. While Pittsburgh is pretty much an auto-fade on the road, it is impossible to like especially a strongly favored Arizona team given the extent of its current struggles.
