NBA Playoffs Best Bets for May 1: Clippers and Nuggets Get Defensive
New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena
Learning From Game 5
Scoring only 103 points, New York lost Game 5.
Of course, the coach of a team that lost will look at where it went wrong and what he can do to facilitate a stronger performance.
In Game 5, New York's coach will notice the emphasis on iso ball. The offense revolved too heavily around superstar Jalen Brunson operating in 1 v. 1 situations.
This focus on isolating Brunson hurt him and New York's offense as a whole.
Consideration of the series as a whole indicates that it would be wise for New York to alter this focus in Game 6.
Pass The Ball, Jalen
New York's best offensive performances and its wins uncoincidentally coincided with Brunson accumulating more assists.
The Knicks are 3-0 when he has eight or more assists in a game.
When New York scored 118 points, Brunson had nine assists. When the Knicks scored 123 points, he had eight assists.
When Brunson gets more assists, it's because he's more focused on increasing the involvement of his teammates in their offense. The Knicks, as a whole, benefit when other players besides Brunson get more involved.
Brunson, too, benefits because the driving lanes that he loves to make use of are likelier to open up.
Better Shooting
Even if the Knicks were to emphasize iso action in Game 6, they can hit their point total "over" simply by shooting better.
In Game 5, New York missed ten open three-point attempts.
Brunson, in particular, underperformed, scoring well below his season-long average.
He also missed three free throws. The Knicks as a whole were awful from the free throw line.
These are easy fixes. Better shooting will also make it even easier for Brunson's assist total "over" to hit.
Best Bet: Knicks Total Points Over 106 at -115 with BetOnline & Jalen Brunson Over 7.5 Assists at -110 with BetOnline
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at Intuit Dome
Denver's Let-Down Trend
The Nuggets exploded offensively in Game 5, scoring 131 points.
History indicates that their offense will suffer a let-down tonight.
When they scored 139 points on April 1, they mustered 106 points in their following game against San Antonio.
Previously, their point total was 95 against Minnesota and, before that, 103 points against Oklahoma City when they scored over 130 points in their previous game.
As long as they aren't playing the pathetic Wizards, their offensive regularly struggles after a big performance.
Jamal Murray is going to return to his usual self, which is bad news for Denver's offense because Ivica Zubac's stout defense is making it tough for Nikola Jokic to assume the level of productivity that his offense wants from him.
With Denver's three-point shooting set to decline relative to its insane explosion in Game 5, with Jokic struggling to score inside against Zubac, with Kawhi Leonard primed to justify his reputation as a great defender by limiting Aaron Gordon's productivity after Gordon had his only really good performance since Game 1, and with Denver's bench so deficient in its lack of depth, the Nuggets will struggle to reach 100 points.
James Harden Trend
The Clippers need James Harden to thrive because they can't count again on anomalous successes from their role players — Kris Dunn, for example, scored one more point in Game 5 than he had done in his three previous games combined.
Harden, however, tends to disappear late in a given playoff series.
Last year, for example, the Clippers scored 93 points in Game 5 against Dallas and 101 points in Game 6 against Dallas.
In those games, Harden scored seven points in Game 5 and eleven points in Game 6.
Harden is a player whom defenses are able, with relative ease, to figure out. They adjust to him. No longer thriving as he was in the beginning of the series, he will struggle to score and his team's offense will accordingly fail to attain a decent scoring total.
As he gets older, it only becomes easier to stop him. Christian Braun is doing a much better job guarding him, although Harden's passivity — in addition to him losing his legs and appearing gassed — might make Braun's defense look better than it is.
Given Harden's predictability for defenses, his team has failed to reach 100 points in four of the last five playoff games in which the series could be clinched by his team or the other team. In the one exception, his team scored 101 points.
Likewise, in the last three Game 6's that Harden was involved in, his team has scored 90 or fewer points twice and 101 points in the other time.
History thus indicates that the Clippers will struggle to reach 100 points in a game where both teams will score between 90 and 100 points.
Best Bet: Under 212 at -113 with BetOnline
New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena
Learning From Game 5
Scoring only 103 points, New York lost Game 5.
Of course, the coach of a team that lost will look at where it went wrong and what he can do to facilitate a stronger performance.
In Game 5, New York's coach will notice the emphasis on iso ball. The offense revolved too heavily around superstar Jalen Brunson operating in 1 v. 1 situations.
This focus on isolating Brunson hurt him and New York's offense as a whole.
Consideration of the series as a whole indicates that it would be wise for New York to alter this focus in Game 6.
Pass The Ball, Jalen
New York's best offensive performances and its wins uncoincidentally coincided with Brunson accumulating more assists.
The Knicks are 3-0 when he has eight or more assists in a game.
When New York scored 118 points, Brunson had nine assists. When the Knicks scored 123 points, he had eight assists.
When Brunson gets more assists, it's because he's more focused on increasing the involvement of his teammates in their offense. The Knicks, as a whole, benefit when other players besides Brunson get more involved.
Brunson, too, benefits because the driving lanes that he loves to make use of are likelier to open up.
Better Shooting
Even if the Knicks were to emphasize iso action in Game 6, they can hit their point total "over" simply by shooting better.
In Game 5, New York missed ten open three-point attempts.
Brunson, in particular, underperformed, scoring well below his season-long average.
He also missed three free throws. The Knicks as a whole were awful from the free throw line.
These are easy fixes. Better shooting will also make it even easier for Brunson's assist total "over" to hit.
Best Bet: Knicks Total Points Over 106 at -115 with BetOnline & Jalen Brunson Over 7.5 Assists at -110 with BetOnline
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at Intuit Dome
Denver's Let-Down Trend
The Nuggets exploded offensively in Game 5, scoring 131 points.
History indicates that their offense will suffer a let-down tonight.
When they scored 139 points on April 1, they mustered 106 points in their following game against San Antonio.
Previously, their point total was 95 against Minnesota and, before that, 103 points against Oklahoma City when they scored over 130 points in their previous game.
As long as they aren't playing the pathetic Wizards, their offensive regularly struggles after a big performance.
Jamal Murray is going to return to his usual self, which is bad news for Denver's offense because Ivica Zubac's stout defense is making it tough for Nikola Jokic to assume the level of productivity that his offense wants from him.
With Denver's three-point shooting set to decline relative to its insane explosion in Game 5, with Jokic struggling to score inside against Zubac, with Kawhi Leonard primed to justify his reputation as a great defender by limiting Aaron Gordon's productivity after Gordon had his only really good performance since Game 1, and with Denver's bench so deficient in its lack of depth, the Nuggets will struggle to reach 100 points.
James Harden Trend
The Clippers need James Harden to thrive because they can't count again on anomalous successes from their role players — Kris Dunn, for example, scored one more point in Game 5 than he had done in his three previous games combined.
Harden, however, tends to disappear late in a given playoff series.
Last year, for example, the Clippers scored 93 points in Game 5 against Dallas and 101 points in Game 6 against Dallas.
In those games, Harden scored seven points in Game 5 and eleven points in Game 6.
Harden is a player whom defenses are able, with relative ease, to figure out. They adjust to him. No longer thriving as he was in the beginning of the series, he will struggle to score and his team's offense will accordingly fail to attain a decent scoring total.
As he gets older, it only becomes easier to stop him. Christian Braun is doing a much better job guarding him, although Harden's passivity — in addition to him losing his legs and appearing gassed — might make Braun's defense look better than it is.
Given Harden's predictability for defenses, his team has failed to reach 100 points in four of the last five playoff games in which the series could be clinched by his team or the other team. In the one exception, his team scored 101 points.
Likewise, in the last three Game 6's that Harden was involved in, his team has scored 90 or fewer points twice and 101 points in the other time.
History thus indicates that the Clippers will struggle to reach 100 points in a game where both teams will score between 90 and 100 points.
Best Bet: Under 212 at -113 with BetOnline
