NBA Best Bets for April 10: Minnesota Will Avoid Getting Swept
New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena
New York's Fade Spot
It is true that bettors commonly overplay the "one team has more to play for than the other" angle.
However, in many of those cases they err because they underestimate the value of playing loosely, which is what the team does that has less to play for when it is eliminated from playoff contention.
Tonight's game is unique because the Knicks have good reason to lose in view of the upcoming playoff picture.
Right now, Detroit is positioned for the sixth seed. The Pistons would play the Knicks, who are positioned for the third seed.
However, if the Pistons pass Milwaukee in the standings, then the Knicks would be positioned to play the Bucks.
New York would much rather face Milwaukee than Detroit.
This is because of what happened in the regular season: whereas the Knicks lost to the Pistons twice, they dominated the Bucks with a 3-0 record against them.
Great Spot For Detroit
Tonight's game is also a great spot for the Pistons because they are coming off two losses.
Most recently, they won by twelve at Toronto after they had lost their two previous games.
On March 17, they likewise won 127-81 in New Orleans after they had lost two straight games.
They repeatedly prove to be worth trusting after losing two straight games.
Takeaway
The Knicks have reason to lose, whereas the Pistons want to end their two-game losing streak.
New York will also be down two key starters in Josh Hart and OG Anunoby. Their replacements are not nearly as good.
With Mitchell Robinson out, they're positioned to see serious action from third-stringer Precious Achiuwa and fourth-stringer PJ Tucker.
The beleaguered Knicks lack the personnel and the motivation tonight to keep pace with the Pistons, who won their last two games against New York by nine and five points, respectively, with both of those games taking place in New York.
Best Bet: Pistons -5 at-107 with BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Barclays Center
The Spread
I find it insane that the Hawks are favored by double digits in Brooklyn.
This is an Atlanta team that has lost six of its last eight games.
The Hawks are especially bad on defense. They have allowed at least 119 points in each of their last nine games.
They even allowed 134 points to Utah. The Jazz rank 24th in offensive rating and missed their top two scorers in that game.
Brooklyn is missing players in this game but also just scored 109 points against Toronto and 114 against New Orleans.
The Nets still have sufficient scoring power to keep pace with the Hawks, who won't even score many points tonight because they rely more heavily than most teams on ball-screens and the
Nets allow the fewest points against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
If the Nets just score 115 points against Atlanta's awful defense, they will likely win this game.
Best Bet: Nets +13 at -110 with BetOnline
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum
The Last Game
These teams played on April 6. The Pelicans lost at home by four points.
They might seem like a good underdog tonight because of how close the game was.
However, it was the second leg of a back-to-back for the Bucks, who have struggled mightily in that spot.
Moreover, superstar Giannis did not play.
Giannis and Company
The Pelicans will be down their starting power forward Kelly Olynyk and might also miss their center Yves Missi — the latter is listed as 'questionable' with left ankle soreness.
Even if their frontcourt were healthy, it is ineffective. They are one of the three worst teams at limiting field goal makes within five feet of the basket.
As such, they lack the personnel to contain Giannis, who is an elite scoring threat with his rim-attacking prowess.
It will be impossible for the Pelicans, who are also the third-worst team at limiting three-point makes, to contain Giannis and to contain Milwaukee's shooters, who together rank number one in three-point percentage.
New Orleans Lacks Scoring Talent
The Pelicans miss Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum and already rank 25th in offensive rating despite having had those players along with the departed Brandon Ingram available for many games.
They lack three-point shooting efficiency and, accordingly, have to rely heavily on scoring at the basket where they will struggle with the rim protection of Brook Lopez as well as Giannis' elite help-side defense.
Both Lopez and Giannis help Milwaukee be the eighth-best team at limiting field goal makes within five feet of the basket.
New Orleans will also miss its starting shooting guard and might miss other starters.
Takeaway
The Pelicans lack the firepower to keep pace with a Milwaukee squad that is steamrolling into the postseason with five straight victories.
Whereas the Bucks will dominate on offense both in the interior and behind the arc, the Pelicans will struggle to make threes and to deal with Milwaukee's interior defense.
Best Bet: Bucks -15 at -110 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 9:30 p.m. ET at FedExForum
Series History
Minnesota is going to be motivated to avoid getting swept by the Grizzlies.
Memphis' success against Minnesota has been far from dominant: both of the Grizzlies' wins came by two points.
Their first win relied on their hard work on the offensive glass.
In the first rematch, Minnesota improved on the glass but Julius Randle regressed drastically relative to the first game.
The same adequate level of offensive rebounding and improvement from Randle will produce a solid Minnesota win.
Minnesota Is A Good Team
Memphis is notorious for failing to beat good teams.
Recent history shows that the Grizzlies continue to struggle to score against good defenses, failing to exceed 110 points against Detroit, Miami, Boston, and Oklahoma City.
They rely a lot on scoring in isolation situations but lack the personnel to hurt teams that are stacked with good defenders who are able to prevent Grizzlies players from scoring in isolation.
The Timberwolves rank sixth in defensive rating in part because they are well-stacked with good defenders.
When Memphis scored 127 points on them in their first meeting, they were unusually efficient from behind the arc and relied on offensive rebounding to attempt enough two-pointers to make up for their inefficiency inside the arc.
I am confident that the last meeting, where Memphis scored 108 points, is more reflective of what to expect from the Grizzlies in this game because it aligns with their recent efforts against other good defenses.
Randle and Company
When Minnesota scored 106 points in its most recent loss to Memphis, not only did Randle underperform but the shooters did as well.
They missed 20 wide-open three-point attempts.
Memphis regularly allows more wide-open three-point attempts than any other team, and Minnesota is the fifth-most efficient team from behind the arc.
So, one has to expect the Timberwolves to improve from behind the arc relative to the 108-106 loss.
With Randle and Minnesota's shooting both being way more productive, the Timberwolves will reach 120 points like they did in their first game against the Grizzlies.
There is thus no way that Minnesota loses a third game to Memphis. The Timberwolves will avoid the sweep and, in doing so, satisfy their obvious goal of improving their playoff positioning.
Best Bet: Timberwolves Pk at -110 with BetOnline
New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena
New York's Fade Spot
It is true that bettors commonly overplay the "one team has more to play for than the other" angle.
However, in many of those cases they err because they underestimate the value of playing loosely, which is what the team does that has less to play for when it is eliminated from playoff contention.
Tonight's game is unique because the Knicks have good reason to lose in view of the upcoming playoff picture.
Right now, Detroit is positioned for the sixth seed. The Pistons would play the Knicks, who are positioned for the third seed.
However, if the Pistons pass Milwaukee in the standings, then the Knicks would be positioned to play the Bucks.
New York would much rather face Milwaukee than Detroit.
This is because of what happened in the regular season: whereas the Knicks lost to the Pistons twice, they dominated the Bucks with a 3-0 record against them.
Great Spot For Detroit
Tonight's game is also a great spot for the Pistons because they are coming off two losses.
Most recently, they won by twelve at Toronto after they had lost their two previous games.
On March 17, they likewise won 127-81 in New Orleans after they had lost two straight games.
They repeatedly prove to be worth trusting after losing two straight games.
Takeaway
The Knicks have reason to lose, whereas the Pistons want to end their two-game losing streak.
New York will also be down two key starters in Josh Hart and OG Anunoby. Their replacements are not nearly as good.
With Mitchell Robinson out, they're positioned to see serious action from third-stringer Precious Achiuwa and fourth-stringer PJ Tucker.
The beleaguered Knicks lack the personnel and the motivation tonight to keep pace with the Pistons, who won their last two games against New York by nine and five points, respectively, with both of those games taking place in New York.
Best Bet: Pistons -5 at-107 with BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Barclays Center
The Spread
I find it insane that the Hawks are favored by double digits in Brooklyn.
This is an Atlanta team that has lost six of its last eight games.
The Hawks are especially bad on defense. They have allowed at least 119 points in each of their last nine games.
They even allowed 134 points to Utah. The Jazz rank 24th in offensive rating and missed their top two scorers in that game.
Brooklyn is missing players in this game but also just scored 109 points against Toronto and 114 against New Orleans.
The Nets still have sufficient scoring power to keep pace with the Hawks, who won't even score many points tonight because they rely more heavily than most teams on ball-screens and the
Nets allow the fewest points against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
If the Nets just score 115 points against Atlanta's awful defense, they will likely win this game.
Best Bet: Nets +13 at -110 with BetOnline
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum
The Last Game
These teams played on April 6. The Pelicans lost at home by four points.
They might seem like a good underdog tonight because of how close the game was.
However, it was the second leg of a back-to-back for the Bucks, who have struggled mightily in that spot.
Moreover, superstar Giannis did not play.
Giannis and Company
The Pelicans will be down their starting power forward Kelly Olynyk and might also miss their center Yves Missi — the latter is listed as 'questionable' with left ankle soreness.
Even if their frontcourt were healthy, it is ineffective. They are one of the three worst teams at limiting field goal makes within five feet of the basket.
As such, they lack the personnel to contain Giannis, who is an elite scoring threat with his rim-attacking prowess.
It will be impossible for the Pelicans, who are also the third-worst team at limiting three-point makes, to contain Giannis and to contain Milwaukee's shooters, who together rank number one in three-point percentage.
New Orleans Lacks Scoring Talent
The Pelicans miss Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum and already rank 25th in offensive rating despite having had those players along with the departed Brandon Ingram available for many games.
They lack three-point shooting efficiency and, accordingly, have to rely heavily on scoring at the basket where they will struggle with the rim protection of Brook Lopez as well as Giannis' elite help-side defense.
Both Lopez and Giannis help Milwaukee be the eighth-best team at limiting field goal makes within five feet of the basket.
New Orleans will also miss its starting shooting guard and might miss other starters.
Takeaway
The Pelicans lack the firepower to keep pace with a Milwaukee squad that is steamrolling into the postseason with five straight victories.
Whereas the Bucks will dominate on offense both in the interior and behind the arc, the Pelicans will struggle to make threes and to deal with Milwaukee's interior defense.
Best Bet: Bucks -15 at -110 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 9:30 p.m. ET at FedExForum
Series History
Minnesota is going to be motivated to avoid getting swept by the Grizzlies.
Memphis' success against Minnesota has been far from dominant: both of the Grizzlies' wins came by two points.
Their first win relied on their hard work on the offensive glass.
In the first rematch, Minnesota improved on the glass but Julius Randle regressed drastically relative to the first game.
The same adequate level of offensive rebounding and improvement from Randle will produce a solid Minnesota win.
Minnesota Is A Good Team
Memphis is notorious for failing to beat good teams.
Recent history shows that the Grizzlies continue to struggle to score against good defenses, failing to exceed 110 points against Detroit, Miami, Boston, and Oklahoma City.
They rely a lot on scoring in isolation situations but lack the personnel to hurt teams that are stacked with good defenders who are able to prevent Grizzlies players from scoring in isolation.
The Timberwolves rank sixth in defensive rating in part because they are well-stacked with good defenders.
When Memphis scored 127 points on them in their first meeting, they were unusually efficient from behind the arc and relied on offensive rebounding to attempt enough two-pointers to make up for their inefficiency inside the arc.
I am confident that the last meeting, where Memphis scored 108 points, is more reflective of what to expect from the Grizzlies in this game because it aligns with their recent efforts against other good defenses.
Randle and Company
When Minnesota scored 106 points in its most recent loss to Memphis, not only did Randle underperform but the shooters did as well.
They missed 20 wide-open three-point attempts.
Memphis regularly allows more wide-open three-point attempts than any other team, and Minnesota is the fifth-most efficient team from behind the arc.
So, one has to expect the Timberwolves to improve from behind the arc relative to the 108-106 loss.
With Randle and Minnesota's shooting both being way more productive, the Timberwolves will reach 120 points like they did in their first game against the Grizzlies.
There is thus no way that Minnesota loses a third game to Memphis. The Timberwolves will avoid the sweep and, in doing so, satisfy their obvious goal of improving their playoff positioning.
Best Bet: Timberwolves Pk at -110 with BetOnline
