NBA Best Bets for April 3: Don't Be Surprised By Brooklyn Tonight
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Miami Heat
Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kaseya Center
Memphis' Defense
If you take a superficial look at Memphis' most recent games, then an "under" might seem improbable.
But we have to look beneath the surface.
Yes, the Heat just gave up 134 points to Golden State. However, 52 of those points came from elite sharpshooter Steph Curry, who does occasionally put together incredible performances. 27 came from Jimmy Butler who is a better offensive player than anybody on the Heat — Miami's leading scorer Tyler Herro has a clearly worse offensive rating than Butler.
Before facing the Warriors, they conceded 117 points to Boston. They limited the Celtics to low two-point and three-point conversion rates. Boston managed as many points as it did via second-chance points and an unusually amazing game from Al Horford.
Three games ago, they gave up 134 points to the Lakers who happened to convert an anomalously high percentage of their open and wide-open three-point attempts.
Besides encountering unusually high efficiency from opposing offenses and star players, Memphis' defense also had the misfortune of facing tough matchups.
Perimeter defense is a weak point for the Grizzlies, yet they are repeatedly facing teams that either love to shoot threes or that are absurdly hot from behind the arc.
Memphis' Matchup Edge
A focused Memphis defense needing to win is going to hold Miami, which lacks the superstar prowess of its previous opponents, to very far below the 117-point total that Boston's elite offense with its matchup edge — especially its stronger offensive rebounding against Memphis' mediocre defensive rebounding — attained.
The Heat offense has a negative outlook tonight because it is one of the worst teams at offensive rebounding and even more so because it relies heavily on scoring via the mid-range.
They attempt the eighth-most field goals 5-9 feet from the basket and the 11th-most field goals 10-14 feet from the basket.
Memphis thrives the most at guarding these spaces. The Grizzlies allow the eighth-lowest field goal percentage against shots attempted 5-9 feet from the basket and the lowest field-goal percentage against shots attempted 10-14 feet from the basket.
Miami's Transition Defense
The Heat defense will keep this game low-scoring because Memphis relies heavily on scoring in transition.
Being efficient in the half-court has been a problem for Memphis all year.
The Grizzlies rely more than any other team on scoring in transition, but this reliance will be a problem for them against a Heat defense that allows the third-fewest points per game in transition.
Takeaway
Miami's offense will be uncomfortable given its reliance on scoring in the mid-range for which it won't be able to compensate by attaining many second-chance points like Boston did, but the
Heat defense will continue its strong form — after most recently allowing 95 points to Philadelphia, 94 points to Washington, and 103 points to Boston — by limiting Memphis' transition-heavy offense.
Best Bet: Under 227.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Toronto Raptors
Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena
Rematch
This contest is a rematch of a game that took place on March 16.
The result of that game indicates to me that Toronto is clearly wrong to be favored at home.
In that game, the Raptors lost by three in Portland.
Their leading scorer, RJ Barrett, was out. Toronto has a terrible track record in games where Barrett is absent, so it is telling that it could almost beat Portland, on the road, without him.
The Raptors still could have won that game if Portland, which ranks one spot behind them in three-point percentage, had not overperformed from behind the arc.
Especially with Barrett returning, Toronto is a great home underdog for this game.
Best Bet: Raptors +3 at -107 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Brooklyn Nets
Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Barclays Center
Fade Spot for Minnesota
This certainly looks like a let-down spot for the Timberwolves.
They are coming off a double-overtime thriller where they defeated the mighty Nuggets by a point. Now they have to shift their focus to bottom-feeder Brooklyn.
History supports the notion that they will underachieve tonight. They failed to cover the spread, for example, in the game that followed their overtime victory against elite Oklahoma City.
It could also simply be the case that they will struggle in any contest following a game that went to overtime.
The key trend for this game is that Minnesota is 0-4 ATS this season in the game following an overtime affair.
Improving Brooklyn
The odds for this game are off partly because they don't account for Minnesota's bad spot and equally because they don't account for Brooklyn's current form.
Brooklyn is playing hard and playing well. The Nets enter this game on a two-game winning streak during which they won at Washington by three and at Dallas by four.
They covered the spread, with ease, as underdogs in both games.
Brooklyn's Matchup Advantages
A high-effort Brooklyn team is going to thrive on defense against what is a good matchup for them.
The Timberwolves rely heavily on making three-pointers. For this reason, their outlook is negative against a Brooklyn team that ranks top-nine both at limiting open three-point attempts and at limiting wide-open three-point attempts and that ranks fifth at limiting three-point attempts in general.
Brooklyn is the eighth-best team at limiting three-point makes because it, evidently, excels at contesting three-point attempts and at running shooters off the three-point line.
The Nets won't need to score much to cover the spread, but as evident in their ability to score 113 points against Dallas with its interior defense being led by annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate Anthony Davis, they have the inside scoring ability with speedsters like Keon Johnson with which to complement their in-form group of three-point shooters.
Takeaway
The Nets are already covering spreads by clear margins. They're in a great spot to cover the spread against a Minnesota team that is coming off an overtime game and that, even if it weren't in a bad spot, would not score enough points given Brooklyn's dedicated perimeter defense to come close to covering the spread.
Best Bet: Nets +13 at -110 with BetOnline
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Miami Heat
Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kaseya Center
Memphis' Defense
If you take a superficial look at Memphis' most recent games, then an "under" might seem improbable.
But we have to look beneath the surface.
Yes, the Heat just gave up 134 points to Golden State. However, 52 of those points came from elite sharpshooter Steph Curry, who does occasionally put together incredible performances. 27 came from Jimmy Butler who is a better offensive player than anybody on the Heat — Miami's leading scorer Tyler Herro has a clearly worse offensive rating than Butler.
Before facing the Warriors, they conceded 117 points to Boston. They limited the Celtics to low two-point and three-point conversion rates. Boston managed as many points as it did via second-chance points and an unusually amazing game from Al Horford.
Three games ago, they gave up 134 points to the Lakers who happened to convert an anomalously high percentage of their open and wide-open three-point attempts.
Besides encountering unusually high efficiency from opposing offenses and star players, Memphis' defense also had the misfortune of facing tough matchups.
Perimeter defense is a weak point for the Grizzlies, yet they are repeatedly facing teams that either love to shoot threes or that are absurdly hot from behind the arc.
Memphis' Matchup Edge
A focused Memphis defense needing to win is going to hold Miami, which lacks the superstar prowess of its previous opponents, to very far below the 117-point total that Boston's elite offense with its matchup edge — especially its stronger offensive rebounding against Memphis' mediocre defensive rebounding — attained.
The Heat offense has a negative outlook tonight because it is one of the worst teams at offensive rebounding and even more so because it relies heavily on scoring via the mid-range.
They attempt the eighth-most field goals 5-9 feet from the basket and the 11th-most field goals 10-14 feet from the basket.
Memphis thrives the most at guarding these spaces. The Grizzlies allow the eighth-lowest field goal percentage against shots attempted 5-9 feet from the basket and the lowest field-goal percentage against shots attempted 10-14 feet from the basket.
Miami's Transition Defense
The Heat defense will keep this game low-scoring because Memphis relies heavily on scoring in transition.
Being efficient in the half-court has been a problem for Memphis all year.
The Grizzlies rely more than any other team on scoring in transition, but this reliance will be a problem for them against a Heat defense that allows the third-fewest points per game in transition.
Takeaway
Miami's offense will be uncomfortable given its reliance on scoring in the mid-range for which it won't be able to compensate by attaining many second-chance points like Boston did, but the
Heat defense will continue its strong form — after most recently allowing 95 points to Philadelphia, 94 points to Washington, and 103 points to Boston — by limiting Memphis' transition-heavy offense.
Best Bet: Under 227.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Toronto Raptors
Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena
Rematch
This contest is a rematch of a game that took place on March 16.
The result of that game indicates to me that Toronto is clearly wrong to be favored at home.
In that game, the Raptors lost by three in Portland.
Their leading scorer, RJ Barrett, was out. Toronto has a terrible track record in games where Barrett is absent, so it is telling that it could almost beat Portland, on the road, without him.
The Raptors still could have won that game if Portland, which ranks one spot behind them in three-point percentage, had not overperformed from behind the arc.
Especially with Barrett returning, Toronto is a great home underdog for this game.
Best Bet: Raptors +3 at -107 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Brooklyn Nets
Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Barclays Center
Fade Spot for Minnesota
This certainly looks like a let-down spot for the Timberwolves.
They are coming off a double-overtime thriller where they defeated the mighty Nuggets by a point. Now they have to shift their focus to bottom-feeder Brooklyn.
History supports the notion that they will underachieve tonight. They failed to cover the spread, for example, in the game that followed their overtime victory against elite Oklahoma City.
It could also simply be the case that they will struggle in any contest following a game that went to overtime.
The key trend for this game is that Minnesota is 0-4 ATS this season in the game following an overtime affair.
Improving Brooklyn
The odds for this game are off partly because they don't account for Minnesota's bad spot and equally because they don't account for Brooklyn's current form.
Brooklyn is playing hard and playing well. The Nets enter this game on a two-game winning streak during which they won at Washington by three and at Dallas by four.
They covered the spread, with ease, as underdogs in both games.
Brooklyn's Matchup Advantages
A high-effort Brooklyn team is going to thrive on defense against what is a good matchup for them.
The Timberwolves rely heavily on making three-pointers. For this reason, their outlook is negative against a Brooklyn team that ranks top-nine both at limiting open three-point attempts and at limiting wide-open three-point attempts and that ranks fifth at limiting three-point attempts in general.
Brooklyn is the eighth-best team at limiting three-point makes because it, evidently, excels at contesting three-point attempts and at running shooters off the three-point line.
The Nets won't need to score much to cover the spread, but as evident in their ability to score 113 points against Dallas with its interior defense being led by annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate Anthony Davis, they have the inside scoring ability with speedsters like Keon Johnson with which to complement their in-form group of three-point shooters.
Takeaway
The Nets are already covering spreads by clear margins. They're in a great spot to cover the spread against a Minnesota team that is coming off an overtime game and that, even if it weren't in a bad spot, would not score enough points given Brooklyn's dedicated perimeter defense to come close to covering the spread.
Best Bet: Nets +13 at -110 with BetOnline
