Well, certainly a fun night last night. Always feels good to hit the big plays you have planned on playing for awhile. The late Over on Lakers game was nice little icing to the cake and we now step into the Thursday TNT double-dip.
28-9-1 +18.18 units
Pretty solid start to the season. Couldn't ask for much more at this point. I think we all have learned a few things these first few nights that will help our capping as the season rolls along. First and foremost is the over reaction to Chicago's opening night win. Second, Dwight Howard is one of the 3 best young players in the league. Third, the akers are playing excellent ball. If Kobias can fit into that team and be like he was in playoffs at points this team could be a darkhorse. Bynum is the real deal. Lastly, the NY Knicks will take years off your life when you bet on them.
On to tonights games. Dallas and Denver finally open up their campaigns...
Dallas vs San Antonio
First of all, this line has made a huge move this morning. I think the biggest factor is Parkers availabilty. The other factor is how how this number opened. It was sure to generate some Spurs money. Here's how it moved this morning in a short span..
11/0211:32amDAL-182 SAS+172 DAL-4.5 -105 SAS+4.5 +105 183.5 +105 183.5 -115 DAL-2 SAS+2 11/0211:33amDAL-164 SAS+154 DAL-4 +116 SAS+4 +116 183 +105 183 -115 DAL-2 SAS+2 11/0211:37amDAL-149 SAS+139 DAL-3 +103 SAS+3 +103 182.5 -109 182.5 -101 DAL-1.5 SAS+1.5 11/0211:40amDAL-144 SAS+134 DAL-2.5 -108 SAS+2.5 +108 182.5 -109 182.5 -101 DAL-1.5 SAS+1.5
I was looking back at how teams that lost the finals started off each season. I used this decade as a sample. Not so much for this game, but to get a general idea. The heat showed championship hangover and I know that the runners-up have come out with vengence at times over the years. My study showed that in the first game of the season(home or away) that the prior years runner-ups were 3-3 SU/AST. I then decided to break it down into the first home game. Obviously, a team that was that close is going to have high expectations from the home towners and want to play at a high level in their own arena. The First home game for previous years runner up was 5-01 ats and 5-1 SU. The team that pushed and lost SU was Philadelphia in 2001. Correct me if I am wrong...but I believe they had some personel issues early that season. The gamelogs would indicate as much.
Alright, lets apply what we have learned to this Dallas-San Antonio matchup. The Dallas Mavericks had a championship in their hands till the 4th quarter of game 3 last year. They didn't have the killer instinct to win it alll and it was a shame because they were a helluva team last year. I see nothing different this season. They have the weopns back and a better bench. They know have learned what it takes to win. That is very key and they will have to show their will against many challengers this season. I don't see a letdown from this club. I only see a march to une again and most likely a different result.
I will admit that as of a few days ago I leaned San Antonio in this spot. I am a sucker for teams avenging playoff losses early in season. Its usually a good spot...but not always the right spot. There hasn't been much excitment coming out of Spurs camp. They are basically the same squad that seems pretty vanilla and goes about its business. Some of their players seem to think they need not step things up until the playoffs. That bit them in ass last year. The Mavericks were playing with confidence and momentum all season. Tony Parker looks like a go but I feel the injury will hinder him a bit. His game is speed and quickness. That will be lessoned somewhat IMO.
Really been working on this game gard this morning. I think the Mavs come out in a flurry and blitz the Spurs early. San Antonio will climb back in eventually before the Mavs go for the kill in the 4th quarter.
I appreciate the downward line move..
Dallas -3 +100(2 units)
Denver @ LA Clippers
Looks like D. Stern and his cronies had a good time putting the schedule togther this season. Lets revisit all the playoff matchups early in the season apparently. Tonight wil be games 6 and 7 that were playoff series last Spring revisited already.
This LAC-DEN series last season showed us a few things. Kenyon Martin is a boner and the Nuggets lack outside shooting. We also saw a Clippers team in a great groove.
Here's what I like about Denver this season:
-The big men are back. This is huge. In regular season tempos these guys can do a lot of damge defensively and getting out on the break. If Kmart is right, its a huge addition for Nuggets. Camby is a helluva player when his vagina doesn't hurt.
-The GM situation sucked last year. That along with the sending home of Kmart in playoffs were distarctions in my mind.
-Carmello Anthony. Have you guys seen the man yet? He looked great at the world championships and had a helluva pre-season. I think he is a man on a mission this year. We will see MVP type numbers from him. His game continues to improve. He has the competiton from that draft class who all had better postseasons than him last year.
Some thoughts on the Clippers:
-Livingston didn't look totally ready to me last night
-Sam looks old. He will take awhile to get 'into' the regular season
-EB is sick. That prolly explains his numbers being low last night. Hopefully its a 72 hour flu
-Uh Oh Maggetio. Wonder if he suits up tonight?
-Overall, the Clippers didn't look like the 2005-2006 edition to me lst night. They were rested but a Suns team on a B2B looked more spy.
Tonight, I see a few things. One, Carmello will have a huge game. He will make Quentin Ross his bitch. I also see the Nuggets being able to get up-tempo more than last season playoffs. LAC expended energy out in PHX last night. The crowd will help them a bit but here's thinking this team isn't in sync right now. I'll take the revenge angle and roll with the Nugs..
Denver ML +146
Best of luck tonight. I do favor the Mavs play right now a little more. Therefore 2 units on that one.
As always, any questions, comments, good lucks or Fuck you's are welcomed.
28-9-1 +18.18 units
Pretty solid start to the season. Couldn't ask for much more at this point. I think we all have learned a few things these first few nights that will help our capping as the season rolls along. First and foremost is the over reaction to Chicago's opening night win. Second, Dwight Howard is one of the 3 best young players in the league. Third, the akers are playing excellent ball. If Kobias can fit into that team and be like he was in playoffs at points this team could be a darkhorse. Bynum is the real deal. Lastly, the NY Knicks will take years off your life when you bet on them.
On to tonights games. Dallas and Denver finally open up their campaigns...
Dallas vs San Antonio
First of all, this line has made a huge move this morning. I think the biggest factor is Parkers availabilty. The other factor is how how this number opened. It was sure to generate some Spurs money. Here's how it moved this morning in a short span..
11/0211:32amDAL-182 SAS+172 DAL-4.5 -105 SAS+4.5 +105 183.5 +105 183.5 -115 DAL-2 SAS+2 11/0211:33amDAL-164 SAS+154 DAL-4 +116 SAS+4 +116 183 +105 183 -115 DAL-2 SAS+2 11/0211:37amDAL-149 SAS+139 DAL-3 +103 SAS+3 +103 182.5 -109 182.5 -101 DAL-1.5 SAS+1.5 11/0211:40amDAL-144 SAS+134 DAL-2.5 -108 SAS+2.5 +108 182.5 -109 182.5 -101 DAL-1.5 SAS+1.5
I was looking back at how teams that lost the finals started off each season. I used this decade as a sample. Not so much for this game, but to get a general idea. The heat showed championship hangover and I know that the runners-up have come out with vengence at times over the years. My study showed that in the first game of the season(home or away) that the prior years runner-ups were 3-3 SU/AST. I then decided to break it down into the first home game. Obviously, a team that was that close is going to have high expectations from the home towners and want to play at a high level in their own arena. The First home game for previous years runner up was 5-01 ats and 5-1 SU. The team that pushed and lost SU was Philadelphia in 2001. Correct me if I am wrong...but I believe they had some personel issues early that season. The gamelogs would indicate as much.
Alright, lets apply what we have learned to this Dallas-San Antonio matchup. The Dallas Mavericks had a championship in their hands till the 4th quarter of game 3 last year. They didn't have the killer instinct to win it alll and it was a shame because they were a helluva team last year. I see nothing different this season. They have the weopns back and a better bench. They know have learned what it takes to win. That is very key and they will have to show their will against many challengers this season. I don't see a letdown from this club. I only see a march to une again and most likely a different result.
I will admit that as of a few days ago I leaned San Antonio in this spot. I am a sucker for teams avenging playoff losses early in season. Its usually a good spot...but not always the right spot. There hasn't been much excitment coming out of Spurs camp. They are basically the same squad that seems pretty vanilla and goes about its business. Some of their players seem to think they need not step things up until the playoffs. That bit them in ass last year. The Mavericks were playing with confidence and momentum all season. Tony Parker looks like a go but I feel the injury will hinder him a bit. His game is speed and quickness. That will be lessoned somewhat IMO.
Really been working on this game gard this morning. I think the Mavs come out in a flurry and blitz the Spurs early. San Antonio will climb back in eventually before the Mavs go for the kill in the 4th quarter.
I appreciate the downward line move..
Dallas -3 +100(2 units)
Denver @ LA Clippers
Looks like D. Stern and his cronies had a good time putting the schedule togther this season. Lets revisit all the playoff matchups early in the season apparently. Tonight wil be games 6 and 7 that were playoff series last Spring revisited already.
This LAC-DEN series last season showed us a few things. Kenyon Martin is a boner and the Nuggets lack outside shooting. We also saw a Clippers team in a great groove.
Here's what I like about Denver this season:
-The big men are back. This is huge. In regular season tempos these guys can do a lot of damge defensively and getting out on the break. If Kmart is right, its a huge addition for Nuggets. Camby is a helluva player when his vagina doesn't hurt.
-The GM situation sucked last year. That along with the sending home of Kmart in playoffs were distarctions in my mind.
-Carmello Anthony. Have you guys seen the man yet? He looked great at the world championships and had a helluva pre-season. I think he is a man on a mission this year. We will see MVP type numbers from him. His game continues to improve. He has the competiton from that draft class who all had better postseasons than him last year.
Some thoughts on the Clippers:
-Livingston didn't look totally ready to me last night
-Sam looks old. He will take awhile to get 'into' the regular season
-EB is sick. That prolly explains his numbers being low last night. Hopefully its a 72 hour flu
-Uh Oh Maggetio. Wonder if he suits up tonight?
-Overall, the Clippers didn't look like the 2005-2006 edition to me lst night. They were rested but a Suns team on a B2B looked more spy.
Tonight, I see a few things. One, Carmello will have a huge game. He will make Quentin Ross his bitch. I also see the Nuggets being able to get up-tempo more than last season playoffs. LAC expended energy out in PHX last night. The crowd will help them a bit but here's thinking this team isn't in sync right now. I'll take the revenge angle and roll with the Nugs..
Denver ML +146
Best of luck tonight. I do favor the Mavs play right now a little more. Therefore 2 units on that one.
As always, any questions, comments, good lucks or Fuck you's are welcomed.
